Autopsy RD 22 - Exposed by the Crows

[CarnTheScray]

Roast - Players' mental application

I know the in-thing to do after tough losses is to bag the coaching. It's an easy scapegoat and has been in footy for probably 100 years. However, can somebody explain to me how coaching was to blame for the pitiful effort by the players in the first quarter that led to us getting 40 points...

www.bigfooty.com

Seemingly, nothing too much has changed

The first time it really bugged me was round 1 2020 against Collingwood. Seems eons ago now.

 

[Unnamed1]

English's goal insulted me. He ran into empty space and stuck his big knees into a bloke half his size for a soda when the game was over. I guess that's a 'contested' mark.

16 possessions and a goal . Great. But if he gets belted like that in a final , all his brownie points from previous games go out the window.

Interesting, bad sort of interesting, to see that Bevo put Naughts in the ruck briefly when English was on the pine.

Martin/English in 2021 GF is proof

 

[grassman75]

Not surprised with the result, just disappointed with the margin

I actually think the margin was better than expected….that game had the potential to be a 60+ point flogging

Despite how shit we played, we had 8 rushed behinds, our goal kicking was as crap as it has been the weeks prior but we’ve won anyway. Adelaide put out their best side for the year and it showed. Only have to be off a couple of %

Not sure what was wrong with Naughton - he looked super flat…flu?

 

[grassman75]

Desperately need an upgrade on Buku and Coffield

Buss can't possibly be less ready than them

I still don’t see it with Buku

 

[grassman75]

McNeil our best.

Says it all.

Pathetic effort from the majority of the team.

He’s been bloody good the last few weeks. Worse than him out there. Tried his guts out

 

[grassman75]

WB
27 shots
9 goals
11 kicked behinds (+7 rushed)
7 no scores
33% accuracy

ADEL
26 shots
17 goals
8 kicked behinds (+1 rushed)
1 no score
65% accuracy

The goals didnt kick themselves

 

[grassman75]

I was actually getting excited about finals and thought we had turned the corner.

So excited in fact that I told my girlfriend that the holiday we had planned to go to Thailand and Hong Kong in the next school holidays needed to be completely rearranged in order to allow me to have the flexibility to get back to Melbourne because the Dogs could make the Grand Final and I couldn’t miss it. I rearranged our accommodation, built in flexible airfares and booked a ticket to get me back into Melbourne on Grand Final morning.

Massively pissed off my girlfriend who is planning to still go onto Hong Kong and I have told her I would love to join her but had to plan to get back to Melbourne and break up our holiday plans.

And then the Dogs go and do this, I mean shit what was I thinking? It is absolutely typical of this team though to do something like this, to win the games we are underdog in and then go and play like shit against a bottom team. Very similar to last year and the year before that.

I shouldn’t have trusted them but they sucked me in.

I expect we will win next week and then drop the final game against the Giants and need other results to go our way with Carlton and/or Freo losing their last game or else we finish 9th.

That’s the outcome from this piss poor effort. Finals are not guaranteed and there’s every chance we miss now. We need to win both of our remaining games to be sure of being there and quite frankly we aren’t doing shit if we do make it. Can’t kick straight for goal and just not good enough.

Why do they make us believers and then do something like this?

So it’s your fault then…..why do you people do this to us.

I’m travelling in the school holidays too and I’m not getting home to Qld until GF day…no chance of making it to Melbourne for the bounce so I don’t even worry about it.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

It's annoying that this may have cost us top 4 but I'll still back us in for finals and I'm not sure that this is a disaster in a lot of ways.

They kicked 6 goals from chains directly from centre bounces, kicked accurately, we kicked inaccurately.

Many elements of the game outside of those controls - general ball movement and winning in the turnover-transition game - we matched Adealide and it wasn't disaster.

I'm not saying we played well (at all), but given the margin was what it was, it's probably as good as a 39-point margin as you could have hoped for. Obviously I'm not saying a six-goal loss is ever good, but there are matches in which the final margin coulld have been a fair bit narrower and I would have have otherwise come away thinking we were much worse as a team.

Destiny is still in our hands, hope like hell we can avoid playing Port in Port this finals series, and chug along to another grand final from 5th to 8th.

 

[JayPea14]

Sorry for the intrusion. Was at Adelaide airport last night and the players were coming through in dribs and drabs.all looked very dejected. I think it was English was trekking through in a moonboot (Note: my memory isn't great on who the player was as I was chasing my two kids around )

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The other thing I think we have to be careful with is the cooeeing about Lobb's performances down back. It was far more likely that Lobb was going to regress to the mean of expectations, because if it truly was self-evident that he was a gun KPD, it wouldn't have taken an injury crisis to move him down back there (they would have noticed it in training or it come up or whatever). On top of that, football is still football, a player in poor form in one position improving their form is likely to regress to that poor form - in other words the same performances that saw Lobb get dropped several times this year as a ruck/KPF would likely eventually happen again irrespective of position.

Hopefully he continues to play well enough for us in finals but the carry-on around here about him being a bankable good KPD on the back of about three games was a bit silly. He was a hole-plug player, not a star.

 

[Unnamed1]

Crows were incredibly good yesterday, clearly outperformed their mean and forced us into a rushed, chaos game. We still had a serious amount of scoring shots (albeit from pretty average spots). A good test to happen in R22. If we respond, we will thank our stars for this belting.

 

[Next Waiting]

Crows were incredibly good yesterday, clearly outperformed their mean and forced us into a rushed, chaos game. We still had a serious amount of scoring shots (albeit from pretty average spots). A good test to happen in R22. If we respond, we will thank our stars for this belting.

The important bit

 

[CarnTheScray]

It’s long and skinny like Geelong, so you need an extra kick and an extra tall target.

Crows and Port know that see how they structure their forwards accordingly.

We just seemed to bomb it long to the goal square continually - same as the port game.

We bomb it long no matter where we play.

 

[W W Biscuit]

Crows were incredibly good yesterday, clearly outperformed their mean and forced us into a rushed, chaos game. We still had a serious amount of scoring shots (albeit from pretty average spots). A good test to happen in R22. If we respond, we will thank our stars for this belting.

Being uber realistic here, the Crows were in exactly the type of situation yesterday as we often are when we play to our carefree best. Backs against the wall, nothing to lose. No expectation. If I were a Crows fan, I’d probably be super p1ssed that my team couldn’t perform to somewhere close to that standard week-in, week out. Because they have often been horrible.

We are not the only team, by far, that struggles with expectation. But something clicks for the very best teams. As people have said, the best teams still get the job done, even against free-wheeling sides with nothing to lose who play out of their skin. We simply need to be much, much tougher to beat when we come up against teams who are at that part of their cycle. Instead of just being one of the glut of middle tier teams who are very much caught up in that very same cycle. Which we are, and have been for all of my living memory.

Having played at a reasonable level of sport for three decades (not football!), the leap from being average to good or good to very good is nothing like the gulf that exists between very good and excellent/elite. I’ve certainly never been able to bridge it, and acknowledge that it’s bloody hard. The psychology involved in getting to the very top is perhaps the biggest challenge of all, and that’s the postcode where the Doggies seem to reside on an almost permanent basis. Calls for better sports psychology at the club is on the mark, I think. I would be pouring additional resources into it, for sure.

Bevo is a compassionate man who can be inspirational. But inspirational, romantic narratives can only go so far when what is needed to maintain excellence is a different mode altogether. A clinical, zen-like mode where the emotion of a performance is actually irrelevant.

 

[Cookie]

Bad loss but at the same time there is an upside as the shortcomings have been laid bare for all to see.
Some of the shortcomings can be addressed with a change to the best 22, but the mental weakness, the ability to absorb physical pressure, the kicking inaccuracy, and the one-dimensional rucking require long term solutions.
At the moment, we're still alive and capable of challenging anyone.

 

[hutchy31]

We need a new club psychologist.

If we could all see this was a danger game and the type of game we tend to drop going in, how the hell do the coaches and players fail to recognise it and prepare for it.

Our midfield is still questionable despite the hype. Hope we bring Sanders back in and he is up and about for next week.

And he/she needs to spend probably 50% of their time with English. It's ludicrous how poor he is sometimes, for a player who should be more than capable of at least halving ruck contests with most of the lead rucks in the comp.

More broadly, there is obviously something wrong with the psyche of this team. If we had played North yesterday instead of being away at AO I'm not sure we would have won that game either. It's like as soon as we have some expectation the playing group either believe their own hype, retreat into themselves or something else that materially impacts their standard of performance.

That some people (Bevo included) have alluded to the fact that the team got settled after 3 weeks of no changes to the lineup and that might have caused the let down is ludicrous imo. They're professional athletes ffs, how about they perform to their best without needing to have the team around them shaken up to focus their minds.

 

[hutchy31]

The other thing I think we have to be careful with is the cooeeing about Lobb's performances down back. It was far more likely that Lobb was going to regress to the mean of expectations, because if it truly was self-evident that he was a gun KPD, it wouldn't have taken an injury crisis to move him down back there (they would have noticed it in training or it come up or whatever). On top of that, football is still football, a player in poor form in one position improving their form is likely to regress to that poor form - in other words the same performances that saw Lobb get dropped several times this year as a ruck/KPF would likely eventually happen again irrespective of position.

Hopefully he continues to play well enough for us in finals but the carry-on around here about him being a bankable good KPD on the back of about three games was a bit silly. He was a hole-plug player, not a star.

Good point. It's far more likely he looked good playing in a team performing well than he's going to be the next Liam Jones in finding his niche as a backman instead of a forward. Hopefully he can carve out a position there because he's not going to play in our forward line in the coming years, but I wouldn't be putting his name on the team sheet in pen for the next couple of years.

If people don't think we should go after Barrass because he's not worth the likely draft capital/salary cap cost, or his injury history is concerning, or we think our younger KPDs are good enough that he's not required, then that's fair enough. If it's because we "don't need him because we have Lobb in the backline now" then I think that might be a mistake.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

And he/she needs to spend probably 50% of their time with English. It's ludicrous how poor he is sometimes, for a player who should be more than capable of at least halving ruck contests with most of the lead rucks in the comp.

More broadly, there is obviously something wrong with the psyche of this team. If we had played North yesterday instead of being away at AO I'm not sure we would have won that game either. It's like as soon as we have some expectation the playing group either believe their own hype, retreat into themselves or something else that materially impacts their standard of performance.

That some people (Bevo included) have alluded to the fact that the team got settled after 3 weeks of no changes to the lineup and that might have caused the let down is ludicrous imo. They're professional athletes ffs, how about they perform to their best without needing to have the team around them shaken up to focus their minds.

Overreaction. How many other teams have taken a nosedive this season?

 

[hutchy31]

Overreaction. How many other teams have taken a nosedive this season?

Maybe, but I'm not talking about this season specifically - it's a pattern of behaviour since late 2021 H&A. Three losses to finish that season to miss top four, struggled in 2022 and needed an all time collapse from Carlton to sneak into finals (where we promptly gave up a seven goal lead to lose the EF), then the debacle of the hawks/WC performances in 2023 - again in the last three games of the season.

The past month of footy had been great to that point, but it's an indictment on the club, footy department and playing group that yesterday's performance wasn't a surprise.

 

[maddog37]

How about we drop blokes that miss shots at goal.

As a forward you are not doing your job by kicking points so you can have a kick in the twos until you sort it out.

 

[Oliver G]

Maybe, but I'm not talking about this season specifically - it's a pattern of behaviour since late 2021 H&A. Three losses to finish that season to miss top four, struggled in 2022 and needed an all time collapse from Carlton to sneak into finals (where we promptly gave up a seven goal lead to lose the EF), then the debacle of the hawks/WC performances in 2023 - again in the last three games of the season.

The past month of footy had been great to that point, but it's an indictment on the club, footy department and playing group that yesterday's performance wasn't a surprise.

I posted this over in another thread, but this back ups your point...

This is the third consecutive year we've gone into the final month of the season in 8th spot and the fourth consecutive year of being in a commanding position with a reasonable or better draw and not capitalising. It’s incredible how predictable we are…

2024 - 8th On Ladder (1-1)
R21 vs. Melbourne (51 point win)
R22 vs. Adelaide (39 point loss)
R23 vs. North Melbourne
R24 vs. GWS
Currently 7th, 11.1% ahead of 9th.

2023 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R21 vs. Richmond (55 point win)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (3 point loss)
R23 vs. West Coast (7 point loss)
R24 vs. Geelong (25 point win)
Finished 9th, 2 points out of the 8.

2022 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R20 vs. Geelong (28 point loss)
R21 vs. Fremantle (17 point loss)
R22 vs. GWS (5 point win)
R23 vs. Hawthorn (23 point win)
Finished 8th, 0.55% ahead of 9th.

2021 - 1st On Ladder (1-4)
R20 vs. Adelaide (49 point win)
R21 vs. Essendon (13 point loss)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (27 point loss)
R23 vs. Port Adelaide (2 point loss)
Finished 5th, missed the top 4 by 0.43%.

 

[Next Waiting]

Calls for better sports psychology at the club is on the mark, I think. I would be pouring additional resources into it, for sure.

Bevo is a compassionate man who can be inspirational. But inspirational, romantic narratives can only go so far when what is needed to maintain excellence is a different mode altogether. A clinical, zen-like mode where the emotion of a performance is actually irrelevant.

At what stage do we deploy these resources.

I've made the case before that the recruitment side of the club should (if they don't already) have full access to these resources and expanded resources if it comes to this. The capacity, or at least indicators, of who will fold and who will stand up psychologically before they get onto the list seems like a must do to me (it's likely it's being done to some degree already but perhaps not enough or well enough).

And then there are the environmental factors of the club itself. There's a bit of nature and nurture in this to meet an objective, the objective being to make and win as many finals as possible as often as possible.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Good point. It's far more likely he looked good playing in a team performing well than he's going to be the next Liam Jones in finding his niche as a backman instead of a forward. Hopefully he can carve out a position there because he's not going to play in our forward line in the coming years, but I wouldn't be putting his name on the team sheet in pen for the next couple of years.

If people don't think we should go after Barrass because he's not worth the likely draft capital/salary cap cost, or his injury history is concerning, or we think our younger KPDs are good enough that he's not required, then that's fair enough. If it's because we "don't need him because we have Lobb in the backline now" then I think that might be a mistake.

In some of the goals that they got directly out of centre bounces, Lobb looked lost, because he simply has never had to be a natural defender in that style of opposition ball movement.

It's a much different game than the "engage physically and use your reach and height" that he's managed over the last month as part of his success.

Either we pick players that are too old (Keath), too young (Busslinger), too flakey (O'Donnell) or too small (Khamis) instead. We will have to live with it for the rest of the season but it's a weakness, not an average position for us, let alone a strength that many people were claiming here after the last few games!

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Found it interesting that some of the signs were there despite the dominant Melbourne win.

vs. Melbourne: opposition had 20 shots from 39 inside 50s
vs. Adelaide: opposition had 26 shots from 43 inside 50s.

Keep in mind that good football is correlated to itself, ie, teams that prevent opposition inside 50s typically also prevent shots per inside 50s and typically also prevent high-quality shots as a proportion of shots.

Essentially it's highly unusual for us to be conceding fewer-than-league-average inside 50's per game, but higher-than-league-average shots per inside 50, because there is some football skills that apply to both (ie the intercepting, pressure and ball winning inside defensive 50 to prevent a shot being good also prevents an opposition inside 50 from eventuating).

We're worse than league average (12 are better than league average because Richmond, North and Eagles are dragging down the average in this particular stat). Essendon and Sydney are the other two. Across the season that's 48.3% of opposition entries leading to a shot. Compare other top teams which are around the 46% mark. It might not seem like much but it actually is, margins are generally that thin because it's just one part that adds up with inside 50 differential, quality of shots themselves, etc.

It's generally a hard thing to measure defence because it's the actions you take that prevent an opposition shot from going off that largely does it - while there might be an occasional smother or crunching run-down tackle more often than not the prevention of an opposition shot on goal is the accumulation of hard-to-measure things such as bodying up a defender or blocking space in the accumulation over the thousands across a season.

The takeaway from all this is to say that I think our midfield and half-back line up the ground is doing very well in preventing inside 50s that ultimately help the team, but the last-line defending is generally poor, and not getting the criticism that's warranted.

I genuinely believe that our defensive selections and units - at least in the purest sense of preventing an opposition forward entry from eventually becoming a shot - has been poor and has chugged along without criticism that is valid, and many of the defensive players who we assume are having good seasons (e.g. Jones, Duryea) are simply not the players that they have been in the past.

 

[hutchy31]

Aren't we 7th?

The post says we're currently 7th. We were 8th before Rd 21.