Re-do the 2023 draft (Rolling edition)

[TazHawk15]

Dear OP, get a clue.

 

[danster168]

If this is the case Calsher Dear must be top 10 for kicking 2 goals on debut as a skinny key forward…

Just a pointless thread and your opinions about Watson show a severe lack of knowledge.

yep, until last week. hence it being a rolling edition there's no way Calsher Sear doesn't get bid on earlier if they did the drsft again today though. That's evident.

 

[danster168]

Franklin averaged 1.7 shots a game in his first season for a total of 34 shots at goal in 20 games

Watson has had 14 shots in 5 games for an average of 2.8 shots a game so far (its over 3 if you include his out on the full shots.)

Jai Amiss had 58 shots at goal in 2023 (his 2nd year) in 22 games for 2.6. shots at goal a game.

Kysaiah Pickett had 20 shots in 14 games in his first year at an average of 1,4 shots a game.

Even the great Cyril Rioli had 43 shots in 25 games for 1,7 shots a game.

Jesse Hogan had 3.15 shots a game in his first year over 20 games.

Watson's accuracy will come and when it does watch out. His pressure off the ball is also excellent. Check out the bulldogs game where he brings the ball to ground and forces a turnover with his pressure in a 2 v 1.

Thats fine. Watson can become the shots at goal king. It's his job to kick goals, and not become the shots at goal stat king. Missing goals, especially easy ones, is a clanger/turnover. It's nothing to be proud of. I think he'll become a decent player but I don't see elite AA calibre talent. And that's fine, I don't see AA calibre talent in Windsor either.

 

[lordbob]

Haha, nice troll mate.

Whats a bigger sign of talent?
a) getting 3 shots at goal a game after 5 games while you settle your nerves and aclimatise yourself to the speed of the game?
b) get less than 1 shot a game but be accurate?

Id take the guy getting 3 shots a game after 5 games who would likely be in the top 0.1% for number of shots per game for a rookie season and trust that his accuracy will improve with time and experience.

You can take the guy who is in the bottom 50% of rookies averaging less than 1 shot a game.

That he is getting the shots shows his ability and talent. Accuracy will come, especially if you see he kicked like 70 goals in his draft season.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Thats fine. Watson can become the shots at goal king. It's his job to kick goals, and not become the shots at goal stat king. Missing goals, especially easy ones, is a clanger/turnover. It's nothing to be proud of. I think he'll become a decent player but I don't see elite AA calibre talent. And that's fine, I don't see AA calibre talent in Windsor either.

This is why you’re not an afl recruitment manager.

 

[danster168]

This is why you’re not an afl recruitment manager.

what does that even mean. Recruiting managers botch first rounders all of the time. Literally a 50% bust rate for first round picks across the last 10 years.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

what does that even mean. Recruiting managers botch first rounders all of the time. Literally a 50% bust rate for first round picks across the last 10 years.

It means your Top 10 is horrendous

 

[danster168]

Haha, nice troll mate.

Whats a bigger sign of talent?
a) getting 3 shots at goal a game after 5 games while you settle your nerves and aclimatise yourself to the speed of the game?
b) get less than 1 shot a game but be accurate?

Id take the guy getting 3 shots a game after 5 games who would likely be in the top 0.1% for number of shots per game for a rookie season and trust that his accuracy will improve with time and experience.

You can take the guy who is in the bottom 50% of rookies averaging less than 1 shot a game.

That he is getting the shots shows his ability and talent. Accuracy will come, especially if you see he kicked like 70 goals in his draft season.

You may 100% be right. And when he starts converting then he'll go up the list. but missing easy shots isn't going to put someone up the rankings in a rolling list.

 

[danster168]

It means your Top 10 is horrendous

how so? Were the recruiters correct when they selected Mitch Thorp? Or Grainger-barras? Josh Ward? Beau Dowler? Ryan Schoenmakers? Recruiters make errors all of the time, 50% of the time. There is no evidence that the recruiters have got it right or wrong yet but I would suggest that Darcy Wilson would be going much earlier than where he was taken. Similar to Will Graham and Calsher Dear would be getting bid on earlier.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

how so? Were the recruiters correct when they selected Mitch Thorp? Or Grainger-barras? Josh Ward? Beau Dowler? Ryan Schoenmakers? Recruiters make errors all of the time, 50% of the time. There is no evidence that the recruiters have got it right or wrong yet but I would suggest that Darcy Wilson would be going much earlier than where he was taken. Similar to Will Graham and Calsher Dear would be getting bid on earlier.

I’m not going to dignify your clear holes in logic based on 9 GAMES!!!!

 

[danster168]

I’m not going to dignify your clear holes in logic based on 9 GAMES!!!!

Answer this, do you think Darcy Wilson goes at pick 18 if the draft was done tomorrow?

 

[Dewyyyyy]

what does that even mean. Recruiting managers botch first rounders all of the time. Literally a 50% bust rate for first round picks across the last 10 years.

Bust isn’t a word used by recruiting managers. And your knowledge would mean you never will be. Opinions are cool don’t treat them as fact tho.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

how so? Were the recruiters correct when they selected Mitch Thorp? Or Grainger-barras? Josh Ward? Beau Dowler? Ryan Schoenmakers? Recruiters make errors all of the time, 50% of the time. There is no evidence that the recruiters have got it right or wrong yet but I would suggest that Darcy Wilson would be going much earlier than where he was taken. Similar to Will Graham and Calsher Dear would be getting bid on earlier.

Thorp, Dowler and stuff happen. Talent is subjective and development is a process not always easily gauged.

Schoenmakers was a premiership forward. Grainger-Barras is still a highly talented defender. Josh Ward a highly talented midfielder who’s shown enough to suggest he will make it, putting him on this list is laughable.

You cannot accurately gauge who will or won’t be good with 100% accuracy. You also should not be judging players so quickly, it’s actually extremely pointless.

 

[danster168]

Bust isn’t a word used by recruiting managers. And your knowledge would mean you never will be. Opinions are cool don’t treat them as fact tho.

why would recruiting managers use that term? But that's exactly what they are. What would you call Jonathan O'Rourke at pick 2 if not a bust?

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Answer this, do you think Darcy Wilson goes at pick 18 if the draft was done tomorrow?

The relevance of this question is so low it is beyond belief

 

[danster168]

The relevance of this question is so low it is beyond belief

it is completely relevant. Answer the question.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

why would recruiting managers use that term? But that's exactly what they are. What would you call Jonathan O'Rourke at pick 2 if not a bust?

They wouldn’t because it isn’t professional. You’d call it a wrong pick, a missed opportunity, a poor or lack of development, mis guided. Misgauged ceiling and floor, among many other things. There’s lots of reasons for players not making it, personal or off field. The staff and coaches. The player itself and application. Natural talent. Ceiling and what they’re capable of achieving. Or all of the above. Not simple processes.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

it is completely relevant. Answer the question.

The relevance of a re draft 9 games in

Completely irrelevant

 

[danster168]

Thorp, Dowler and stuff happen. Talent is subjective and development is a process not always easily gauged.

Schoenmakers was a premiership forward. Grainger-Barras is still a highly talented defender. Josh Ward a highly talented midfielder who’s shown enough to suggest he will make it, putting him on this list is laughable.

You cannot accurately gauge who will or won’t be good with 100% accuracy. You also should not be judging players so quickly, it’s actually extremely pointless.

That's silly. Players are open to judgement as soon as they hit the big time. It's no different to the NBA where players are judged from the onset. Admittedly they are a couple of years older when drafted but players are judged BEFORE they're even drafted. There's been many players that have been booed on stage at the moment of getting drafted. I'm not saying this is right but athletes are rightly judged from the moment a club invests in them.

 

[danster168]

The relevance of a re draft 9 games in

Completely irrelevant

if you don't think that Darcy Wilson would go earlier than 18 based on what we've seen than I'm sorry but you're in fairy land.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

if you don't think that Darcy Wilson would go earlier than 18 based on what we've seen than I'm sorry but you're in fairy land.

If you think that anyone with a modicum of draft/ player development knowledge would do a re draft 9 games into a season and believe it proved anything other than short sighted biases

You are on that ship alone

 

[danster168]

They wouldn’t because it isn’t professional. You’d call it a wrong pick, a missed opportunity, a poor or lack of development, mis guided. Misgauged ceiling and floor, among many other things. There’s lots of reasons for players not making it, personal or off field. The staff and coaches. The player itself and application. Natural talent. Ceiling and what they’re capable of achieving. Or all of the above. Not simple processes.

Yes, it isn't professional, but it doesn't mean it's wrong. No idea how you don't call Jonathan O Rourke at pick 2 a bust. Or Tim Walsh at pick a bust? Mitch Thorp at pick 6 a bust? Lucas Cook at pick 12? David Trotter at pick 9? John Butcher at pick 8? You're getting hung up on semantics mate. They are and always will be draft busts, in every sense of the word.

Yes, injuries are a valid excuse but that's the only one. A players application is an important part of the recruiting process so if a player doesn't apply himself that's all on the club. You also can't blame development because guys like O'Rourke failed at multiple clubs.

 

[danster168]

If you think that anyone with a modicum of draft/ player development knowledge would do a re draft 9 games into a season and believe it proved anything other than short sighted biases

You are on that ship alone

You didn't answer the questions because you know that Darcy Wilson has shown to be a steal at pick 18. That alone proves that rankings can change 9 games into a season. Some players in the draft will never even play at the level Wilson has been playing in their entire careers.

 

[BIGHAWK23]

You didn't answer the questions because you know that Darcy Wilson has shown to be a steal at pick 18. That alone proves that rankings can change 9 games into a season. Some players in the draft will never even play at the level Wilson has been playing in their entire careers.

If your point was that “Darcy Wilson should have been drafted higher after 9 games”
Make that the title thread

You will realise how stupid it sounds

 

[danster168]

If your point was that “Darcy Wilson should have been drafted higher after 9 games”
Make that the title thread

You will realise how stupid it sounds

There is literally no point. Everyone would agree that he's a steal at pick 18.