List Mgmt. Rebuild or refresh?

[tugga]

Both.
can see us giving a first and third rounder for cerra.
can see a seconod rounder for narkle.
that gives us two ready made players to step in and still a first, second and third round pick in the draft.
dont @ me for the trade suggestions, just an opinion and a hunch.

 

[Oshka]

Pickett isnt ******* done

Not done, just ordinary.

 

[THE_GUN]

Add to that great salary cap management from them to be able to recruit a Cameron. It’s now or never for them and while it’s been year after year, this is definitely the last year with Hawkins, Smith, Higgins, Selwood, Dangerfield, Henderson, etc all hitting the cliff edge from the top of my mind, you can’t just replace that.

There salary cap management is an interesting topic

Just about all their star players including their coaches are now very well off with land development and property interest in geelong and region
* Here come to geelong and play for $600k (dangerfield/Selwood/Bomber etc)
* Ohh we have a land development if your interested in buying and it will be developed into housing in 12 years time
Buy for $1 million and will be worth $10 mil

 

[Bird Man]

Both.
can see us giving a first and third rounder for cerra.
can see a seconod rounder for narkle.
that gives us two ready made players to step in and still a first, second and third round pick in the draft.
dont @ me for the trade suggestions, just an opinion and a hunch.

Don’t mind it and key forward from the draft why not

 

[tugga]

Don’t mind it and key forward from the draft why not

And a key back with another pick.
Our window might be closed this year but doesn’t mean it’s closed next year.

 

[RJK Tiger]

How can the Old peoples home Geelong continually keep playing finals with an ageing list?
We have a younger list and have managed to fall off the cliff.

Our issue isn't age, it's work ethic and right now they aren't working hard enough and arrogance is showing on and off the field.

I also think Leppa is a huge loss, I would have liked to see a succession plan where he took over from Dimma.

The answer to that is simple - we are not Geelong. We are Richmond.

People forget just what an incredible achievement this team made. There was NO bigger headcase than Richmond. There was no other team in Australia so desperate for success & ridiculed at their futile attempts at it. Not just for years....DECADES. We had the biggest supporter base of any club with zero success. The emotional and mental toll on this group to BE THE TEAM which snapped that hoodoo was immense. This ride has been amazing, but it has been incredibly taxing and draining, even for the fans. They just look, alot like us here - ****ing spent.


I seriously doubted I would ever see Richmond win a flag.When we won in 2017, a close friend of mine who was at the GF with me asked "would you take just this one if it meant we sucked again for another 37 years?". I said "yep - i got to see this one and i would never give that up for anything. Nothing worse than being that dumbass, hungry dog with the bone in its mouth, looking at its own reflection at the water below..."


After 2018 & the loss to the Pies, we questioned that answer, as the failure hurt like shit. That night along with a few other poorly timed shitty life situations broke me a bit & took me into a very bad place, personally. But the redemption of 2019 & 20 made it truely amazing - we got way way more than we ever could dream from this group. For players like Cotchin, Houli, Edwards, Riewoldt, Grimes, Astbury, Vlaustin, Dusty - they were also the team that lost 3 finals in a row between 2013-2015 & then broke our hearts with a typically Richmond collapse in 2016. I went into 2017 totally expecting another "Richmond Rebuild", and had a slight feeling of dread when we traded picks forPrestia, Caddy & Nank. Memories of Kane Johnson, Trent Knobel, Justin Blumfield flashed before me. I was not expecting much from 2017, just another "5 year rebuild".

Previous to this era, have we forgotten we had only won TWO FINALS in 35 years?? Remember Brett Deledio? This ride broke him for a couple of years, not because he was on it - but because he missed out on it by choosing to snatch for the other bone. That poor bastard, he truely loved this club & i will always respect him for making that choice. Like many of us, our relationship with the RFC has sometimes been that of a toxic nature. I will never forget the footage of Richo balling his eyes in 2017 - this ride broke mother****ers tougher than us. Thats how much it meant to be a player involved, not in the the actual success - but just to be a part of the road to it.

The ride was intense, but it has been incredibly draining. The only team i can compare it to in being as monumental and as emotional on the playing group and its supporters, is Collingwood in 1990. That team basically imploded the next season, saw a beloved player die - they were unable to re-settle themselves to make the success last, as the success itself was so overwhelming. Took them another decade of them f'ing up before they got Malthouse in and "did it right".

This side BROKE that duck, gave us a "1990" + 2 more grand finals in 3 years. The final one, in the most ****ed up year you could ever imagine, in the middle of a pandemic, in a hub.... You can't make this shit up.

Our cliff was always going to come hard and fast at us - this ride was not like Geelong's, where a level of successful culture was curated over a couple of decades - we went from desperate virgins, to ****ing super models for 4 years straight. Our road to success was hard and fast & totally exhausting. But the cliff is here & now that it is, like everything else - we should embrace it, welcome the chance to celebrate it & learn from past errors of being that dog with the bone in its mouth looking at its own reflection in the water. Don;t **** it up by trying to be greedy, learn to move on without expecting more and more - let others have a go & go about it all in the right way.

I would really like to see a few of these older blokes make an announcement over the coming weeks about their future & let this season be about that & not the the failure, the injuries, the shitty umpiring, Dimma's personal life etc etc etc. Its time to get "the band back together" for a celebration for this crazy ride. . Who knows, maybe a change of focus & the transition into a new direction is the spark this team really needs. We might not be able to win a flag, but i would ****ing love to see us make the finals & win at least 1 final for Cotch & Houli - with RCD, Naish, CCJ, Mansell there to see it & with Rance, & Deledio waiting at the race for him. I would love to see this year end with them all back at the club as we say goodbye to the end of what has been an amazing era - The Cotchin years. We all got robbed of saying a proper farewell to Richo, Rance & Deledio - lets not have the same thing happen with Cotchin. Lets use it, for once, to do these moments right.

We have had all our success for now, it's time to for us to retain our new culture & build on it. This is not the time to risk it all for "1 more", this is the time to rebuild in a way we have never been able to do before.... from a position of STRENGTH & UNITY





















...... Or we could just win this ****ing thing from 8th!!!! Go Tigers!!! Whhooopppp!!!

 

[Del65166]

There salary cap management is an interesting topic

Just about all their star players including their coaches are now very well off with land development and property interest in geelong and region
* Here come to geelong and play for $600k (dangerfield/Selwood/Bomber etc)
* Ohh we have a land development if your interested in buying and it will be developed into housing in 12 years time
Buy for $1 million and will be worth $10 mil

Out of the Clinton Casey playbook

 

[Del65166]

And a key back with another pick.
Our window might be closed this year but doesn’t mean it’s closed next year.

Is an 19 draftee KPP going to be ready in a year? Usually not. Or you draft a matured kid and they are usually the mids. EFC have been lucky to have a few tall kids ready to go first up.
Maybe we retain Miller and Nyoun. Try to turn Chol into a defender. He did take a couple of intecept marks in games. Let's see how Miller goes this week.

 

[Del65166]

Both.
can see us giving a first and third rounder for cerra.
can see a seconod rounder for narkle.
that gives us two ready made players to step in and still a first, second and third round pick in the draft.
dont @ me for the trade suggestions, just an opinion and a hunch.

Which players do you see leaving us at year's end? Is Cerra a lock as starting mid? What position does Narkle play? Mid or fwd?

 

[Rasha]

Rebuild time.
We had 4 years of finishing top 4 and contending.
Net result = 3 flags in 4 years.
Other clubs could only dream of having a run like ours. For example.

Essendon 1999-2001 - 1 flag from 3 top 4 finishes.
Port Adelaide 2001-2004 - 1 flag from 4 top 4 finishes.
Collingwood 2002-2003 - 0 flags from 2 top 4 finishes.
West Coast 2005-2007 - 1 flag from 3 top 4 finishes.
St Kilda 2008-2010 - 0 flags from 3 top 4 finishes.
Western Bulldogs 2008-2010 - 0 flags from 3 top 4 finishes.
Collingwood 2009-2012 - 1 flag from 4 top 4 finishes.
Fremantle 2013-2015 - 0 flags from 3 top 4 finishes.
Sydney 2012-2016 - 1 flag from 5 top 4 finishes.
Collingwood 2018-2019 - 0 flags from 2 top 4 finishes.

 

[Moppey]

Looking at the way we use the ball and that has not changed a hell of a lot imo even in premiership years then replacing poor kicks and decision makers is a must if we wish to challenge again in the future. It seems We are talking a lot about the aging stars we have and over all quality on the list and how long most of that quality is going to be around.

We all know top picks in the ND is not the be all end all but they sure do give a reliable indication of where most of the quality top end players come from.

Not surprising the vast majority of our better quality players have come from top 30 picks and im pretty sure not too many A graders slip past this point i think most would agree after pick 30 you are not aiming for A graders but good servicable players while hoping the odd A grader does slip.

So im talking about quality here and the relation of quality to where a player is originally taken in the draft and the age of that player to determine longevity.

We currently have 14 players taken at pick thirty or under on our list. Nine or ten of those 14 are clearly among our best players.

Top 10 drafted players with the draft number they were originally taken.

Vlastuin 27yo #9
Caddy 29yo #7
Cotchin 33yo # 2
Martin 30yo #3
Prestia 29yo #9

It sort of says Caddy aside imo if you want the top end talent you have to pay the price. Cotchin Martin and Prestia have clearly been our best three mids and Vlastuin has been a top notch medium defender. Four of these players will be vets by the end of the season. If people say to me we have that sort of quality midfielder coming thru to replace them or a high quality medium defender coming thru then i say you are kidding.

Picks 11 to 20

Rioli 24yo #15
CC-J 22yo # 20
RC-D 21yo # 20
Lynch 29yo #11
Riewoldt 33yo #13

People don't like me saying it but i think Rioli very ordinary. CC-J and RC-D Both only played a handful of games each. Lynchy only 29 but injuries seem to be coming so i question longevity and Jack at age 33 is in clear decline and could be gone by as soon as the end of season.
Once again we have vets in this range of pick and we have to ask is the same sort of quality coming thru.

So where is the quality coming from to replace in particular Jack and Big Tom. It is not currently on the list imo . Some may say Coleman - Jones but i dont see it atm. RC-D may or may not become a real good player but is he a replacement for Martin Cotchin or Prestia i dont see it at this stage.

Picks 21 to 30

Bolton 23yo # 29
Dow 20yo #21
Balta 22yo #25
Edwards 33yo #26

These four round out the 14 top 30 picks we have as we can see the vast majority of our better players come from this range but a big problem is again a vet falls into this area.At 33 you have to ask how much longer for Edwards?
Bolton and Balta are the only quality picks that have more than a handful games to their name aside from Rioli who as stated i dont rate and would shop him around.
I think Bolton will take over from Edwards and Balta is the only tall defender that falls into this range its a worry.
If quality is mostly found in the top 30 picks then clearly the vast majority of our quality is aged and imo we dont have the same quality coming thru.

Okay just to round it all out
Picks 31 to 40

Naish 22yo #34. wont make it imo. Very outside and soft.
McIntosh 27yo #31. Horrible butcher of the ball.
Ryan 20yo # 40 Very young ruckman with some good attributes.
Astbury 30yo # 35 past it kpd who may retire at seasons end.
Nankervis 27yo # 35 very consistent combative ruckman.

PICKS 41 TO 50

Ross 21yo #43 has stagnated have some hope for him but needs to start tracking in the right direction again.
Martyn 20yo # 44. just a kid needs time.
Parker 25yo #47 just arrived we will see.
Ralphsmith 20yo # 46 shows promise.
Cumberland 20yo #43 had a serious knee injury needs time to see
Houli 33yo #42 Should have retired last year.

Picks 51 to 60

Nyuon 20yo # 54 Been there 5 minutes has good attributes.
MRJ 18yo # 51 see above
Graham 23yo #53 been a very solid contributor imo but high quality?

Picks 61 to 72

Miller 22yo # 63 just dont know with this bloke if we cant play him now with the injuries to KPD when?
Broad 28yo #67 Been a very solid player and a good mature pick up with the pick.
Garthwiate 23yo #72 dont see it with him but who knows.

ROOKIE PICKS

DE-S 23YO - not up to it imo.
Chol 24yo - lacks mongrel
Bake 23yo - Been a good pick up but i have real issues with parts of his game.
Castagna 24yo - a butcher of the ball should not be getting games.
Aarts 26yo - gives his all but lacks the needed polish to play AFL IMO.
Short 25yo - like Baker has been a good pick up but i think him very over rated with issued in his game.
Lambert 30yo - been a great get in our top 10 players.
Soldo 25yo - Became a very combative ruckman still has a lot to work on imo.
Colina cat B ROOKIE HUGE MAN and a type well worth looking at the long term with.
Pickett 29yo Mid season rookie. IMO been a good mature pick up but is already 29.
Stack 21yo - pre season supplementary selection. Has talent needs to apply himself and take his chance.
Grimes 30yo - PSD. Been a great get but is now a vet we are asking how long and who is in the system to replace him.
Mansell 21yo - PSD. I like the look of this kid reckon he is a defender who can provide both the outlet and defend well.

For me and people know i have been advocating it we need to start the rebuild and it starts by playing as many kids as possible and finding out where they are at, at the least.

I think we have missed several opportunities to start this process in some areas we are pretty shallow in and will become even more shallow in when retirements happen.

 

[Bird Man]

Looking at the way we use the ball and that has not changed a hell of a lot imo even in premiership years then replacing poor kicks and decision makers is a must if we wish to challenge again in the future. It seems We are talking a lot about the aging stars we have and over all quality on the list and how long most of that quality is going to be around.

We all know top picks in the ND is not the be all end all but they sure do give a reliable indication of where most of the quality top end players come from.

Not surprising the vast majority of our better quality players have come from top 30 picks and im pretty sure not too many A graders slip past this point i think most would agree after pick 30 you are not aiming for A graders but good servicable players while hoping the odd A grader does slip.

So im talking about quality here and the relation of quality to where a player is originally taken in the draft and the age of that player to determine longevity.

We currently have 14 players taken at pick thirty or under on our list. Nine or ten of those 14 are clearly among our best players.

Top 10 drafted players with the draft number they were originally taken.

Vlastuin 27yo #9
Caddy 29yo #7
Cotchin 33yo # 2
Martin 30yo #3
Prestia 29yo #9

It sort of says Caddy aside imo if you want the top end talent you have to pay the price. Cotchin Martin and Prestia have clearly been our best three mids and Vlastuin has been a top notch medium defender. Four of these players will be vets by the end of the season. If people say to me we have that sort of quality midfielder coming thru to replace them or a high quality medium defender coming thru then i say you are kidding.

Picks 11 to 20

Rioli 24yo #15
CC-J 22yo # 20
RC-D 21yo # 20
Lynch 29yo #11
Riewoldt 33yo #13

People don't like me saying it but i think Rioli very ordinary. CC-J and RC-D Both only played a handful of games each. Lynchy only 29 but injuries seem to be coming so i question longevity and Jack at age 33 is in clear decline and could be gone by as soon as the end of season.
Once again we have vets in this range of pick and we have to ask is the same sort of quality coming thru.

So where is the quality coming from to replace in particular Jack and Big Tom. It is not currently on the list imo . Some may say Coleman - Jones but i dont see it atm. RC-D may or may not become a real good player but is he a replacement for Martin Cotchin or Prestia i dont see it at this stage.

Picks 21 to 30

Bolton 23yo # 29
Dow 20yo #21
Balta 22yo #25
Edwards 33yo #26

These four round out the 14 top 30 picks we have as we can see the vast majority of our better players come from this range but a big problem is again a vet falls into this area.At 33 you have to ask how much longer for Edwards?
Bolton and Balta are the only quality picks that have more than a handful games to their name aside from Rioli who as stated i dont rate and would shop him around.
I think Bolton will take over from Edwards and Balta is the only tall defender that falls into this range its a worry.
If quality is mostly found in the top 30 picks then clearly the vast majority of our quality is aged and imo we dont have the same quality coming thru.

Okay just to round it all out
Picks 31 to 40

Naish 22yo #34. wont make it imo. Very outside and soft.
McIntosh 27yo #31. Horrible butcher of the ball.
Ryan 20yo # 40 Very young ruckman with some good attributes.
Astbury 30yo # 35 past it kpd who may retire at seasons end.
Nankervis 27yo # 35 very consistent combative ruckman.

PICKS 41 TO 50

Ross 21yo #43 has stagnated have some hope for him but needs to start tracking in the right direction again.
Martyn 20yo # 44. just a kid needs time.
Parker 25yo #47 just arrived we will see.
Ralphsmith 20yo # 46 shows promise.
Cumberland 20yo #43 had a serious knee injury needs time to see
Houli 33yo #42 Should have retired last year.

Picks 51 to 60

Nyuon 20yo # 54 Been there 5 minutes has good attributes.
MRJ 18yo # 51 see above
Graham 23yo #53 been a very solid contributor imo but high quality?

Picks 61 to 72

Miller 22yo # 63 just dont know with this bloke if we cant play him now with the injuries to KPD when?
Broad 28yo #67 Been a very solid player and a good mature pick up with the pick.
Garthwiate 23yo #72 dont see it with him but who knows.

ROOKIE PICKS

DE-S 23YO - not up to it imo.
Chol 24yo - lacks mongrel
Bake 23yo - Been a good pick up but i have real issues with parts of his game.
Castagna 24yo - a butcher of the ball should not be getting games.
Aarts 26yo - gives his all but lacks the needed polish to play AFL IMO.
Short 25yo - like Baker has been a good pick up but i think him very over rated with issued in his game.
Lambert 30yo - been a great get in our top 10 players.
Soldo 25yo - Became a very combative ruckman still has a lot to work on imo.
Colina cat B ROOKIE HUGE MAN and a type well worth looking at the long term with.
Pickett 29yo Mid season rookie. IMO been a good mature pick up but is already 29.
Stack 21yo - pre season supplementary selection. Has talent needs to apply himself and take his chance.
Grimes 30yo - PSD. Been a great get but is now a vet we are asking how long and who is in the system to replace him.
Mansell 21yo - PSD. I like the look of this kid reckon he is a defender who can provide both the outlet and defend well.

For me and people know i have been advocating it we need to start the rebuild and it starts by playing as many kids as possible and finding out where they are at, at the least.

I think we have missed several opportunities to start this process in some areas we are pretty shallow in and will become even more shallow in when retirements happen.

Could we sell on the older players/ retire them and then drop down a year or two to pick up some top 10 draft picks ?


In saying that we have been terrible at picking the right players within the top ten

 

[Masotiger]

The answer to that is simple - we are not Geelong. We are Richmond.

People forget just what an incredible achievement this team made. There was NO bigger headcase than Richmond. There was no other team in Australia so desperate for success & ridiculed at their futile attempts at it. Not just for years....DECADES. We had the biggest supporter base of any club with zero success. The emotional and mental toll on this group to BE THE TEAM which snapped that hoodoo was immense. This ride has been amazing, but it has been incredibly taxing and draining, even for the fans. They just look, alot like us here - ******* spent.


I seriously doubted I would ever see Richmond win a flag.When we won in 2017, a close friend of mine who was at the GF with me asked "would you take just this one if it meant we sucked again for another 37 years?". I said "yep - i got to see this one and i would never give that up for anything. Nothing worse than being that dumbass, hungry dog with the bone in its mouth, looking at its own reflection at the water below..."


After 2018 & the loss to the Pies, we questioned that answer, as the failure hurt like sh*t. That night along with a few other poorly timed shitty life situations broke me a bit & took me into a very bad place, personally. But the redemption of 2019 & 20 made it truely amazing - we got way way more than we ever could dream from this group. For players like Cotchin, Houli, Edwards, Riewoldt, Grimes, Astbury, Vlaustin, Dusty - they were also the team that lost 3 finals in a row between 2013-2015 & then broke our hearts with a typically Richmond collapse in 2016. I went into 2017 totally expecting another "Richmond Rebuild", and had a slight feeling of dread when we traded picks forPrestia, Caddy & Nank. Memories of Kane Johnson, Trent Knobel, Justin Blumfield flashed before me. I was not expecting much from 2017, just another "5 year rebuild".

Previous to this era, have we forgotten we had only won TWO FINALS in 35 years?? Remember Brett Deledio? This ride broke him for a couple of years, not because he was on it - but because he missed out on it by choosing to snatch for the other bone. That poor bastard, he truely loved this club & i will always respect him for making that choice. Like many of us, our relationship with the RFC has sometimes been that of a toxic nature. I will never forget the footage of Richo balling his eyes in 2017 - this ride broke motherf***ers tougher than us. Thats how much it meant to be a player involved, not in the the actual success - but just to be a part of the road to it.

The ride was intense, but it has been incredibly draining. The only team i can compare it to in being as monumental and as emotional on the playing group and its supporters, is Collingwood in 1990. That team basically imploded the next season, saw a beloved player die - they were unable to re-settle themselves to make the success last, as the success itself was so overwhelming. Took them another decade of them f'ing up before they got Malthouse in and "did it right".

This side BROKE that duck, gave us a "1990" + 2 more grand finals in 3 years. The final one, in the most f’ed up year you could ever imagine, in the middle of a pandemic, in a hub.... You can't make this sh*t up.

Our cliff was always going to come hard and fast at us - this ride was not like Geelong's, where a level of successful culture was curated over a couple of decades - we went from desperate virgins, to ******* super models for 4 years straight. Our road to success was hard and fast & totally exhausting. But the cliff is here & now that it is, like everything else - we should embrace it, welcome the chance to celebrate it & learn from past errors of being that dog with the bone in its mouth looking at its own reflection in the water. Don;t fu** it up by trying to be greedy, learn to move on without expecting more and more - let others have a go & go about it all in the right way.

I would really like to see a few of these older blokes make an announcement over the coming weeks about their future & let this season be about that & not the the failure, the injuries, the shitty umpiring, Dimma's personal life etc etc etc. Its time to get "the band back together" for a celebration for this crazy ride. . Who knows, maybe a change of focus & the transition into a new direction is the spark this team really needs. We might not be able to win a flag, but i would ******* love to see us make the finals & win at least 1 final for Cotch & Houli - with RCD, Naish, CCJ, Mansell there to see it & with Rance, & Deledio waiting at the race for him. I would love to see this year end with them all back at the club as we say goodbye to the end of what has been an amazing era - The Cotchin years. We all got robbed of saying a proper farewell to Richo, Rance & Deledio - lets not have the same thing happen with Cotchin. Lets use it, for once, to do these moments right.

We have had all our success for now, it's time to for us to retain our new culture & build on it. This is not the time to risk it all for "1 more", this is the time to rebuild in a way we have never been able to do before.... from a position of STRENGTH & UNITY

View attachment 1165116



















...... Or we could just win this ******* thing from 8th!!!! Go Tigers!!! Whhooopppp!!!

You make some very valid and very good points. However, I don't believe the cliff is as steep as you might.

Of the more senior players, Jack doesn't appear to be slowing down as one might expect given his age. Dusty is a gun that could go another 5 years at his current level of effectiveness. Cotchin's leadership qualities are excellent and allowed to have managed game time could go again next year. Astbury and Houli are very close to the end but I can see another season in them if they are mentally right to go. Same with Grimes.

I have been bullish about our premiership chances this year, however, I'm now starting to realise we could be pushing shit uphill with a rope in 2021. Last Friday night's game was more about attitude than ability. For whatever reason our attitude has not been where it should be. Having won 3 of the last 4 flags gives a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking we can just switch on at any time during a game and win it. This is not a good thing. As it's starting to look unlikely for us to win it this year, season 2022 could bring back that manic desire to succeed. The ability is there. I believe we can get that hunger back next season.

Eventually we will have to replace these guys who have given us so much pleasure, but I would love to see them have one more crack next season.

 

[RJK Tiger]

Could we sell on the older players/ retire them and then drop down a year or two to pick up some top 10 draft picks ?


In saying that we have been terrible at picking the right players within the top ten

I refuse for our strategy to be deliberately "drop down" for 2 years to get early picks while we have one "Dustin Martin" on our team. It is an insult to his talents for us to just piss away his final elite years. If that is our plan also, see ya Shai.

Our plan needs to be that of Geelong. Stay in the mix, be creative - attack free agency & sell your brand. I would like our point of difference to be we don't waste picks or list spots on players 30+ - our skill has been using the same strategy on players which other teams seem to underrate, while we see a unique skillset or quality to them that we think is valuable.... Grigg, Townsend, Houli, Toby, Broad, Pickett, Mansell - all players that other teams underrated in their system - or completely overlooked in the drafts etc. I think this is our unique point of difference vs the "ol man cats" strategy - but otherwise we go down the same road as the Cats

FWIW i think only Cotch, Houli and maybe Astbury are at that point now - but i do believe within another 1,2 & 3 years we have to be prepared to say goodbye to Jack, Edwards, Grimes, Presita, Dusty, Lambert, Pickett & maybe even Lynch. I think the wear and tear of this dynasty era is going to burn these guys out quicker than we all expected. This was the cost of "Chaos Ball" - our style was we would wear & beat you down by winning the war of attrition. Every night, we went to war. Over half our grand final team could be out of the league by the end of 2023, & i think we will see substantial decline in their output between now and then.

I think with a fairly good base of young players around we can still compete, but we are basically looking off the edge of that cliff right now. It does excite me though to imagine what this current team could still do if they can commit to the 3 or 4 young guys to play key roles in the team moving forward and see if some of these older players can draw on the enthusiasm of our young brigade. There is still pieces and time for this season to have another twist, but we need put ourselves in that situation first.

 

[RJK Tiger]

You make some very valid and very good points. However, I don't believe the cliff is as steep as you might.

Of the more senior players, Jack doesn't appear to be slowing down as one might expect given his age. Dusty is a gun that could go another 5 years at his current level of effectiveness. Cotchin's leadership qualities are excellent and allowed to have managed game time could go again next year. Astbury and Houli are very close to the end but I can see another season in them if they are mentally right to go. Same with Grimes.

I have been bullish about our premiership chances this year, however, I'm now starting to realise we could be pushing sh*t uphill with a rope in 2021. Last Friday night's game was more about attitude than ability. For whatever reason our attitude has not been where it should be. Having won 3 of the last 4 flags gives a warm and fuzzy feeling thinking we can just switch on at any time during a game and win it. This is not a good thing. As it's starting to look unlikely for us to win it this year, season 2022 could bring back that manic desire to succeed. The ability is there. I believe we can get that hunger back next season.

Eventually we will have to replace these guys who have given us so much pleasure, but I would love to see them have one more crack next season.

I literally think though our best chance to win a flag this year is to play RCD and Naish ahead of Cotchin & Houli.

I think Cotchin's biggest strength for us now is his leadership, not his onfield talents. I would love to see him switch to playing as the medical sub every second week. We would keep his leadership, he would set the tone of being humble and unselfish to the next generation - but also be available if a player goes down and become somewhat of an ex-factor. He can't perform week after week, it just isn't in him anymore.

In the NBA,. this is so common. Elite players like K.Leonard NEVER play what they call "back to back" games. They hold them back to ensure that his conditioning is cherry ripe, but that when he does play - he is playing at this best, while also cutting back his risk to long-term injury by 50%.

With Houli, i think he should go back to VFL and win a spot back. Prove he still has it. His presence in the VFL team would be immense to players like Mansell, Ross, etc. He is a leader & a role model to good culture. He is humble enough to take on such a role and be happy.

The tone it would set for the side at the moment if Cotch put his hand back and allowed himself to step back in this way is what we need. We actually need humble leadership at the moment. As you said, the talent is there - but the attitude, confidence and team-mateship isn't. This has ALWAYS been our key to our success - FAMILY.

Good parents know when its time to let the kids take the ropes

 

[box070]

To me the issue is pure hunger.
Make no mistake last year would have taken a hell of a lot out of the players mentally and emotionally. Would be incredibly hard to back that up. It was the hardest flag ever won.
Combine that with the injuries and unavailabilities and it has snowballed.
We need to keep refreshing on the run, although I don’t think we can win it this year we are still in the mix and will play finals.
The blow out losses shows to me that we aren’t as hungry as we have been. Can turn it around no doubt.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

To me the issue is pure hunger.

Totally this. After reading through a handful of pages of campaigners sooking and throwing their toys out of the cot after Friday night, someone finally nailed it.

Hunger can be recaptured.

 

[theyellowsash]

Pickett isnt ******* done

I wouldn't say Pickett is done, but he wont be around in 5-6 which is probably the earliest we contend again. If one of the wa teams want him, we should send him over to finish his career near family. He has given us 2 flags for little investment, and always put in the hard work. He deserves that for what little we would get for him.

 

[THE_GUN]

Is an 19 draftee KPP going to be ready in a year? Usually not. Or you draft a matured kid and they are usually the mids. EFC have been lucky to have a few tall kids ready to go first up.
Maybe we retain Miller and Nyoun. Try to turn Chol into a defender. He did take a couple of intecept marks in games. Let's see how Miller goes this week.

Why does he have to be ready in a year ?

 

[wegetpumped]

How is it possible some teams draft kids and they play from the word go and we keep players in the system for 5 years only to find out they are still no good. People are even talking up Ross again cause he has a new one-game roll unreal. From Memory, Higgins was the only one and we know how that ended.

 

[box070]

How is it possible some teams draft kids and they play from the word go and we keep players in the system for 5 years only to find out they are still no good. People are even talking up Ross again cause he has a new one-game roll unreal. From Memory, Higgins was the only one and we know how that ended.

Maybe because we have been competing for flags. Not mid range rebuilding.

 

[Mr Magic]

Looking at the way we use the ball and that has not changed a hell of a lot imo even in premiership years then replacing poor kicks and decision makers is a must if we wish to challenge again in the future. It seems We are talking a lot about the aging stars we have and over all quality on the list and how long most of that quality is going to be around.

We all know top picks in the ND is not the be all end all but they sure do give a reliable indication of where most of the quality top end players come from.

Not surprising the vast majority of our better quality players have come from top 30 picks and im pretty sure not too many A graders slip past this point i think most would agree after pick 30 you are not aiming for A graders but good servicable players while hoping the odd A grader does slip.

So im talking about quality here and the relation of quality to where a player is originally taken in the draft and the age of that player to determine longevity.

We currently have 14 players taken at pick thirty or under on our list. Nine or ten of those 14 are clearly among our best players.

Top 10 drafted players with the draft number they were originally taken.

Vlastuin 27yo #9
Caddy 29yo #7
Cotchin 33yo # 2
Martin 30yo #3
Prestia 29yo #9

It sort of says Caddy aside imo if you want the top end talent you have to pay the price. Cotchin Martin and Prestia have clearly been our best three mids and Vlastuin has been a top notch medium defender. Four of these players will be vets by the end of the season. If people say to me we have that sort of quality midfielder coming thru to replace them or a high quality medium defender coming thru then i say you are kidding.

Picks 11 to 20

Rioli 24yo #15
CC-J 22yo # 20
RC-D 21yo # 20
Lynch 29yo #11
Riewoldt 33yo #13

People don't like me saying it but i think Rioli very ordinary. CC-J and RC-D Both only played a handful of games each. Lynchy only 29 but injuries seem to be coming so i question longevity and Jack at age 33 is in clear decline and could be gone by as soon as the end of season.
Once again we have vets in this range of pick and we have to ask is the same sort of quality coming thru.

So where is the quality coming from to replace in particular Jack and Big Tom. It is not currently on the list imo . Some may say Coleman - Jones but i dont see it atm. RC-D may or may not become a real good player but is he a replacement for Martin Cotchin or Prestia i dont see it at this stage.

Picks 21 to 30

Bolton 23yo # 29
Dow 20yo #21
Balta 22yo #25
Edwards 33yo #26

These four round out the 14 top 30 picks we have as we can see the vast majority of our better players come from this range but a big problem is again a vet falls into this area.At 33 you have to ask how much longer for Edwards?
Bolton and Balta are the only quality picks that have more than a handful games to their name aside from Rioli who as stated i dont rate and would shop him around.
I think Bolton will take over from Edwards and Balta is the only tall defender that falls into this range its a worry.
If quality is mostly found in the top 30 picks then clearly the vast majority of our quality is aged and imo we dont have the same quality coming thru.

Okay just to round it all out
Picks 31 to 40

Naish 22yo #34. wont make it imo. Very outside and soft.
McIntosh 27yo #31. Horrible butcher of the ball.
Ryan 20yo # 40 Very young ruckman with some good attributes.
Astbury 30yo # 35 past it kpd who may retire at seasons end.
Nankervis 27yo # 35 very consistent combative ruckman.

PICKS 41 TO 50

Ross 21yo #43 has stagnated have some hope for him but needs to start tracking in the right direction again.
Martyn 20yo # 44. just a kid needs time.
Parker 25yo #47 just arrived we will see.
Ralphsmith 20yo # 46 shows promise.
Cumberland 20yo #43 had a serious knee injury needs time to see
Houli 33yo #42 Should have retired last year.

Picks 51 to 60

Nyuon 20yo # 54 Been there 5 minutes has good attributes.
MRJ 18yo # 51 see above
Graham 23yo #53 been a very solid contributor imo but high quality?

Picks 61 to 72

Miller 22yo # 63 just dont know with this bloke if we cant play him now with the injuries to KPD when?
Broad 28yo #67 Been a very solid player and a good mature pick up with the pick.
Garthwiate 23yo #72 dont see it with him but who knows.

ROOKIE PICKS

DE-S 23YO - not up to it imo.
Chol 24yo - lacks mongrel
Bake 23yo - Been a good pick up but i have real issues with parts of his game.
Castagna 24yo - a butcher of the ball should not be getting games.
Aarts 26yo - gives his all but lacks the needed polish to play AFL IMO.
Short 25yo - like Baker has been a good pick up but i think him very over rated with issued in his game.
Lambert 30yo - been a great get in our top 10 players.
Soldo 25yo - Became a very combative ruckman still has a lot to work on imo.
Colina cat B ROOKIE HUGE MAN and a type well worth looking at the long term with.
Pickett 29yo Mid season rookie. IMO been a good mature pick up but is already 29.
Stack 21yo - pre season supplementary selection. Has talent needs to apply himself and take his chance.
Grimes 30yo - PSD. Been a great get but is now a vet we are asking how long and who is in the system to replace him.
Mansell 21yo - PSD. I like the look of this kid reckon he is a defender who can provide both the outlet and defend well.

For me and people know i have been advocating it we need to start the rebuild and it starts by playing as many kids as possible and finding out where they are at, at the least.

I think we have missed several opportunities to start this process in some areas we are pretty shallow in and will become even more shallow in when retirements happen.

We lack some high end talent when you think we got lucky with Balta and Bolton in particular.

Need to play the kids

 

[fargothegreat]

I don't think we need to put a label on what we do as a "rebuild" or "refresh".

Embrace the fall when it inevitably happens, but don't try and engineer it.

 

[Aeons]

Totally this. After reading through a handful of pages of campaigners sooking and throwing their toys out of the cot after Friday night, someone finally nailed it.

Hunger can be recaptured.

I reckon with the right decisions at the selection table we can get the hunger back for sure...we should reward hunger and desire in the young blokes playing well in the vfl.

 

[Del65166]

Why does he have to be ready in a year ?

Well Astbury will be playing this week and Miller too, hopefully. So we'll get an idea of Millers form at the senior level. If Miller looks OK then we can plan Dave's retirement with confidence and then pick the usual young, project KPD. Balta's and Broads' injuries not real long is a relief.