Retirement

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Just speaking here as a layman, but having putting some thought into this, the biggest factor affecting when/if you retire is your living costs. The size of your nest egg, while important, is a secondary consideration.

Its good news because our living costs largely fall within our control. A lot of people when thinking about retirement jump straight into their current expenses and other potential costs down the road (kids, schooling, mortgages etc). The most important step, however, is to first work out what you are spending and how you can reduce it if possible. This will exponentially speed things up because (1) you need less to retire and live on, but also (2) your nest-egg will build quicker as you're spending less while having the same/greater level of income.

There is no way 99% of people would need $3 million to retire (if you're thinking about inflation etc, well that's more than offset by even the gains you'll get in an interest-bearing cash account). Even if your prediction is based on current expenditure and you have no intention of cutting down, you are unlikely to be blowing cash like that in your 60s, 70s, 80s (and even your 50s if your kids are grown up by then). Plus if you get married, it makes your job half as easy because you then have two people pooling their resources while sharing costs (plus someone to nag you about said blowing of cash).

As for me, when I was in my 20s, my plan was to save/invest as much as possible for an early retirement (at like 35). That's probably not going to happen now...my wife ain't happy for example with the idea of living in a shoe box or renting half of our rooms out for cash, and when we have kids she'll want to send them to good schools and so on. But I still try to plan for an early retirement nonetheless. For example, I make the maximum voluntary super contributions given its tax free. Even though its only accessible at 60, I can always then retire early and then draw on another source of principle (e.g. downsizing house) while the super fund compounds in a Vanguard ETF / index fund.
 
Yep you are indeed a party-pooper. Have never had a losing year in the NFL and as I said to dad last night, I can't wait to stick it up everyone when I make the move.
You do realise many extremely clever people, with extremely sophisticated computer systems, only win a few % on turnover in liquid American sports? The market, is very efficient.
 

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You do realise many extremely clever people, with extremely sophisticated computer systems, only win a few % on turnover in liquid American sports? The market, is very efficient.

Perhaps I'm just beating the market? I don't have some secret recipe but it's no coincidence that teams like the 0-3 bears and saints some how find a way to win when they had no right to. Especially the saints. I was on every 0-3 team except the browns who were public dogs.

The "fixed" and "equalization" theory most certainly comes into play although it can never be proven however it's something I factor into my capping. You can throw in the jags also and then Baltimore also blowing it from a winning position being 3-0.

The fact of the matter is that I'm winning and doing quite well on moneyline dogs. One of the 3-0 teams is going down this week. That's for sure.

There are people that make a living out of it. Why not me?
 
Follow ur dreams son.

Do u actually know anyone that makes a living off sports gambling?
And I'm not talking about those people selling their tips.

Its a dream job but fk me not easy.

Heard of one guy, single and in his late 20s from new Jersey quit his job and make the cross country roadie to Vegas with 30k of savings and a down payment on a rental property near the strip.

Started off like a rocket and could do no wrong. Eventually he fell victim to a bad beat and felt compelled to make another play to get it back eventhough he was up since the journey began.

Slowly but surely, the bankroll started dwindling as regression took hold and the losses piled up.

He lost the plot and started dabbling in coke while humping milfs and older married women ultimately taking away his focus of what he was there for.

Inevitably, his bankroll plummeted and he was faced with two decisions. Head back home to NJ or cash the 401k? No prizes for guessing what he did. He's now a broke ass uber driver making * all.

I'd like to think that if the s**t hits the fan, I have the maturity to hop on the plane back home. It's all about a sufficient bankroll, money management and at budget. There is also the Duritz martingale system with a 100 % success rate. At worst this is a bit of pocket money to supplement other income here if I can't cut it in Pattaya.

That's the story of the only person I ever heard of who tried to make a living on the punt.

PS overs in A-League especially 2nd half
 
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Looks like Thailand is on the back burner for a while

Also looks like two 3-0 teams lost last week and one of those teams just got done again today.

Who says this is impossible?
 
Heard of one guy, single and in his late 20s from new Jersey quit his job and make the cross country roadie to Vegas with 30k of savings and a down payment on a rental property near the strip.

Started off like a rocket and could do no wrong. Eventually he fell victim to a bad beat and felt compelled to make another play to get it back eventhough he was up since the journey began.

Slowly but surely, the bankroll started dwindling as regression took hold and the losses piled up.

He lost the plot and started dabbling in coke while humping milfs and older married women ultimately taking away his focus of what he was there for.

Inevitably, his bankroll plummeted and he was faced with two decisions. Head back home to NJ or cash the 401k? No prizes for guessing what he did. He's now a broke ass uber driver making **** all.

I'd like to think that if the s**t hits the fan, I have the maturity to hop on the plane back home. It's all about a sufficient bankroll, money management and at budget. There is also the Duritz martingale system with a 100 % success rate. At worst this is a bit of pocket money to supplement other income here if I can't cut it in Pattaya.

That's the story of the only person I ever heard of who tried to make a living on the punt.

PS overs in A-League especially 2nd half
Ok. I just think you've completely underestimated the complexity and difficulties of what you're seeking to do. If you are any better than a mug you won't be able to get bets accepted at most bookmakers, only the exchanges and Pinny. And it's not as if I am someone with no idea - I make my living trading horse racing odds.

But that's enough from me. All the best :thumbsu:
 
Heard of one guy, single and in his late 20s from new Jersey quit his job and make the cross country roadie to Vegas with 30k of savings and a down payment on a rental property near the strip.

Started off like a rocket and could do no wrong. Eventually he fell victim to a bad beat and felt compelled to make another play to get it back eventhough he was up since the journey began.

Slowly but surely, the bankroll started dwindling as regression took hold and the losses piled up.

He lost the plot and started dabbling in coke while humping milfs and older married women ultimately taking away his focus of what he was there for.

Inevitably, his bankroll plummeted and he was faced with two decisions. Head back home to NJ or cash the 401k? No prizes for guessing what he did. He's now a broke ass uber driver making **** all.

I'd like to think that if the s**t hits the fan, I have the maturity to hop on the plane back home. It's all about a sufficient bankroll, money management and at budget. There is also the Duritz martingale system with a 100 % success rate. At worst this is a bit of pocket money to supplement other income here if I can't cut it in Pattaya.

That's the story of the only person I ever heard of who tried to make a living on the punt.

PS overs in A-League especially 2nd half

I meant to get back to this - what's the Duritz martingale method? I don't use any form of martingale
 

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Ok. I just think you've completely underestimated the complexity and difficulties of what you're seeking to do. If you are any better than a mug you won't be able to get bets accepted at most bookmakers, only the exchanges and Pinny. And it's not as if I am someone with no idea - I make my living trading horse racing odds.

But that's enough from me. All the best :thumbsu:

Do you do form or just trade?
 
So are you generally trying to do a bit of arbing? Sell at $7.00, back at $8.00, cop the middle?
Yes. Mostly trade off to ensure I won/lose the same regardless of the race (API software makes it easy). I can sometimes get decent arbing opportunities between Betfair and bookmakers - well the few that allow you to bet. Crown will sometimes got out on a limb and they tug the market around.
 
Yes. Mostly trade off to ensure I won/lose the same regardless of the race (API software makes it easy). I can sometimes get decent arbing opportunities between Betfair and bookmakers - well the few that allow you to bet. Crown will sometimes got out on a limb and they tug the market around.

They use rob Waterhouse's prices I believe, so if he doesn't like one they'll often chase it
 
They use rob Waterhouse's prices I believe, so if he doesn't like one they'll often chase it
Wasn't aware of that. They have what I call an 'A' team and a 'B' team. The A team will often really drift a horse in each race well ahead of the rest of the market. Yet on other days, the 'B' team acts just like another bookmaker all day.
 
I guess retirement requirements is simply your budget multiplied by how many years you think you'll live

a buffer and inflation is worth considering

I would have thought a couple could live a very comfortable life, with overseas holidays, for $70k a year. A frugal couple could probably still live comfortably on $50k.
 
I guess retirement requirements is simply your budget multiplied by how many years you think you'll live

a buffer and inflation is worth considering

I would have thought a couple could live a very comfortable life, with overseas holidays, for $70k a year. A frugal couple could probably still live comfortably on $50k.
Depends on the remaining outlays. ie if you still have a mortgage etc but for me projecting as a single male who doesn't smoke or drink , I would think $35,000-$50,000 is a minimum, based on inflationary aspects. Rent will be my biggest outlay for the foreseeable future.
 
I guess retirement requirements is simply your budget multiplied by how many years you think you'll live

a buffer and inflation is worth considering

I would have thought a couple could live a very comfortable life, with overseas holidays, for $70k a year. A frugal couple could probably still live comfortably on $50k.

Yup - I'd think if you've paid off your primary residence a couple could get by on 70k a year (inflation adjusted) no problem.
 

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