RFC--Use the compo pick

[pcara]

Do we have to state our position before the draft? Or can we wait till our name is called and 'pass'? If we can wait till the last second and someone of the ilk of Jacobs or Prestia is available then I say use it. Remember, last year we picked up some beauties after the second round. I am sick of waiting and have faith in FJ and the boys.

I believe we need to nominate if we are to use it on November 4

 

[Azzleberry]

Realistically, we want to play Finals in 2012. However, one would think that the window for a Premiership would be open from 2014-2016. This is when our core group is around 26-28 and playing their best and most consistent footy. Therefore, by picking up 3 top 30 picks in the 2012 draft, they will all have 2 years to develop until our window opens and IMO would provide that extra push that Geelong got with Taylor, Selwood etc and Collingwood with Beams, Sidebottom etc..
No harm in waiting two years to evaluate it... Worst case scenario, we offer it up in a trade to snare a quality player from another team..

 

[brjafi]

Just too many good reasons to ignore banking this trade for the future wether we use it or trade it.

"not sure if serious".........seriously, why would you use it now?

 

[Cutty]

save it save it save it

it's gonna be a higher pick later, it gives us a bargaining chip in trade week and allows greater flexibility to grab a real keeper within the next few years.

The players that fall into the range of our compo pick if used this year are good prospects but not outstanding ones, much more likely to snag a rippa in the 18-mid 20's range in 2012 than a servicable player around 30 this year

 

[Tigermad2011]

Those who use it now will regret not waiting until 2012. It's going to be a very good draft.

Patience is a virtue.

Yes but with GWS taking the best kids the pick my not come to pick 40 or more. Use it now and get the best kid we can.

 

[Tigermad2011]

People forget with free agent coming in the pick is never going to be any better than it is now.

 

[delediofan3]

I say save it. People say the 2012 is a super draft and who knows where we will be on the ladder next year. If we are in the 8 it would be useful to have another pick in at the end of the first round

 

[Wallaby]

Every Draft is a Super draft - remember 2006? The 2 best players out of that turned out to be No7 and No13.

Use it.

 

[db26]

I reckon use it now were building a new group now as one and within 2 years we should be mature and ready to push on into the eight.

 

[Mr Magic]

Nah, definitely should keep it. We will be able to get a good outside mid with it in 2012 or trade before we start the surge!!!!

 

[Spanish_Fly]

I say use it, from all reports there is not a lot of difference between the guys rated 7-30, so we might be able to pickup someone we rate near the top 10 with this pick.

Also, we are very likely to lose someone to GWS next year and we get another compo pick then. Also, if everyone banks the compo picks this year, and then all the compo picks handed out again next year we might only move up 1 or 2 places by holding onto it. Makes sense to take it given we know we will get a pretty decent prospect with it this year.

Agree with the bird in the hand comments.

 

[Mr Magic]

I say use it, from all reports there is not a lot of difference between the guys rated 7-30, so we might be able to pickup someone we rate near the top 10 with this pick.

Also, we are very likely to lose someone to GWS next year and we get another compo pick then. Also, if everyone banks the compo picks this year, and then all the compo picks handed out again next year we might only move up 1 or 2 places by holding onto it. Makes sense to take it given we know we will get a pretty decent prospect with it this year.

Agree with the bird in the hand comments.

From the read ups I see there is a big difference between the top 15 and the rest except for the odd two.

Pick in the hand is worth two in the bush and it appreciates as opposed to depreciates. Reduces debt and enables us to get better picks in the next two years before we target a premiership in 6 years!!

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Originally Posted by TFLUA-Tiger

Top 30's pretty strong as a whole really. After the first 4/5 the next 25 are really even - I could have a guy at 30 who you'd have at 10 without too many dramas.



From what I have read TFLUA-Tiger seems to be one of the most knowledgeable posters on this forum in regards to draft talent and I am happy to take his opinon on the talent available. He seems to back up my point that the top 30 talent is really even and we may pickup someone we rate close to top ten with our compo pick.

At this stage we are all guessing what the pick will be worth in 2 years, the only thing we do know is we should get a pretty good prospect with it now.

 

[Mr Magic]

Originally Posted by TFLUA-Tiger

Top 30's pretty strong as a whole really. After the first 4/5 the next 25 are really even - I could have a guy at 30 who you'd have at 10 without too many dramas.



From what I have read TFLUA-Tiger seems to be one of the most knowledgeable posters on this forum in regards to draft talent and I am happy to take his opinon on the talent available. He seems to back up my point that the top 30 talent is really even and we may pickup someone we rate close to top ten with our compo pick.

At this stage we are all guessing what the pick will be worth in 2 years, the only thing we do know is we should get a pretty good prospect with it now.

Average prospects after 16 in 2010, 2012 will be a super draft plus free agency, can't ignore the facts!

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Average prospects after 16 in 2010, 2012 will be a super draft plus free agency, can't ignore the facts!

How is that a fact? Sounds to me like your opinion.

 

[Mr Magic]

How is that a fact? Sounds to me like your opinion.

It is a fact it is my opinion.

It is a fact free agency is coming in a couple of years!

It is a fact numerically the compo pick will be higher in the future after the GC compo compensation or whatever they call there receipt of draft bounty.

It is a fact many respected judges believe 2012 is shaping up as a super draft.

It is a fact GC, with ears to the powers of the AFL determined that they succeed for revenue purposes, are maximising their opportunities by delaying their pick and adding more eg. Ablett mid round compo pick.

It would appear their is sound reason, if not absolute rock solid gold fact the pick should be delayed till the future.


Here is another reason. By taking it now you are saying this years is the best year to draft in the next 5 years including this year which all things being equal is a 20% chance. The compromised draft of this year and other factors above could reasonably make that assessment a less than 20% chance this year is the best year to use the draft pick!

So are you a gambler willing to risk Richmond's future?

 

[Spluff]

Mr Magic, I want whatever you are on.

 

[coke_zero]

Every Draft is a Super draft - remember 2006? The 2 best players out of that turned out to be No7 and No13.

Use it.

Agreed, Stock up with as much talent as we can now early in the rebuild instead of slowly fixing gaps.

 

[Mr Magic]

It is a fact it is my opinion.

It is a fact free agency is coming in a couple of years!

It is a fact numerically the compo pick will be higher in the future after the GC compo compensation or whatever they call there receipt of draft bounty.

It is a fact many respected judges believe 2012 is shaping up as a super draft.

It is a fact GC, with ears to the powers of the AFL determined that they succeed for revenue purposes, are maximising their opportunities by delaying their pick and adding more eg. Ablett mid round compo pick.

It would appear their is sound reason, if not absolute rock solid gold fact the pick should be delayed till the future.


Here is another reason. By taking it now you are saying this years is the best year to draft in the next 5 years including this year which all things being equal is a 20% chance. The compromised draft of this year and other factors above could reasonably make that assessment a less than 20% chance this year is the best year to use the draft pick!

So are you a gambler willing to risk Richmond's future?

The reason why it is a bet, and bookies will tell you a bad bet is, because of all the above but, no one knows the quality of the kids in the next 4 years after this year, except maybe to 2012 based on the youngsters and that, apparently, is in the favour of keeping it till 2012. So to say this year is the best year is an utter gamble. The other reason is you are recognising the loss on the premium paid for the pick to use it in future years without receiving the related benefit!!!!

 

[Spanish_Fly]

The reason why it is a bet, and bookies will tell you a bad bet is, because of all the above but, no one knows the quality of the kids in the next 4 years after this year, except maybe to 2012 based on the youngsters and that, apparently, is in the favour of keeping it till 2012. So to say this year is the best year is an utter gamble. The other reason is you are recognising the loss on the premium paid for the pick to use it in future years without receiving the related benefit!!!!

I don't even know where to start to try and unravel the ramblings posted above, the flaws in your logic are too numerous to mention.

Ultimately no-one knows what the correct decision is, everyone just has thier opinion, yet you state your case so dogmatically as if it is all fact when none of it is.

I trust Hardwick and the current football department that they have looked at all the possibilities far more intently than I have and whatever decision they make is OK with me, but I would personally use the pick now as we know what sort of player we will get.

 

[Mr Magic]

I don't even know where to start to try and unravel the ramblings posted above, the flaws in your logic are too numerous to mention.

Ultimately no-one knows what the correct decision is, everyone just has thier opinion, yet you state your case so dogmatically as if it is all fact when none of it is.

I trust Hardwick and the current football department that they have looked at all the possibilities far more intently than I have and whatever decision they make is OK with me, but I would personally use the pick now as we know what sort of player we will get.

Its good you trust Hardwick. I have similar thoughts. With his apparent accounting background he will know what I am talking about. If not specifically, I am sure his uni or commercial network of associates will provide some insight into exactly what I am talking about.

I believe we are in good hands!!!

 

[Reckoner Tiger]

exactly.
I'd prefer to hold it.
If we grabbed another one or two next year, we could potentially have ourselves 3-4 top 25 picks in the 2012 draft without even finishing low.

That sounds way too tempting.
Finish 8th and then still have picks between 20 and 30? I would love that.
Unless an absolute gun falls all the way to our pick, bank it for a while I reckon.

 

[_RT_]

AFL site reporting that the Roos are likely to use their selection this year. Something tells me we might just do the same

 

[SleepingGiant]

Do not use the Pick. No shortcuts. It is moronic to take a lesser value in the light of recieving a greater value in 2 years. Why bother drafting any players in 2012 if they will be raw?

 

[captain blood 17]

Hold the pick.