Summer RIO 2016 - Cycling (Track and Road) 11th to 16th Aug

Remove this Banner Ad

BobbyMorri

BobbyMorri

Community Leader
Tasmanian Team Tennis Board Service Medal
May 4, 2009
12,396
11,571
Tasmania
AFL Club
Sydney
Other Teams
Furth
I am more of a track fan than a road fan, so someone else can post info on that. this post will update

so i wrote a lot about the world champs which happened earlier on this year. (found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/aussie-watch-towards-rio.1072565/page-3)

most of my info here will be based on those memories plus other tidbits. i am no expert, so feel free to disagree. I really only catch the world champs each year.

Will go through each event one by one. Starting with the big one.

Mens Team Pursuit.
What a race this will be. Ashes on wheels. Aussie v Brits. The World Record should be smashed by both teams. Wiggins will be racing for the brits, and they supposedly broke the 4-year-old world record in training this month.

BUT Australia defeated them at the world champs by posting the 2nd fastest time ever. And that was without Jack Bobridge, who is the quickest man ever over 4 KMs though he posted that 5 years ago. we also claim to have broken the world record in Mexico in 2015.

The brits cracked in the last lap in the world champs. probably won't happen again as Ed Clancey, the person who cracked, was still recovering from a knock. they probably deserve to be slight favs due to history and reputation, but I seriously think we can beat them. We won't know till the day as both teams will and are playing mind games. even during the heats, both teams won't show their full cards and be resting up for a 3.50 effort. Heck, Wiggins even called us bad losers and bad winners the other day. please win this one Australia

Odds
1.75 GB
2.25 Aus
13 Swiss(no chance)

Men's Omnium
The big name in this is Mark Cavendish. but despite what the bookies think, I don't think he will medal. Great cyclist but coming from a Tour de France is not great preparation. plus he only finished 6th in London earlier this year.

So who then. I let Viviani, 2015 3rd place in the World Champ 2016 tell his story.

“I’d put Gaviria ahead of everybody,” Viviani told Gazzetta dello Sport of his rivals in Rio. “Then there’s [Glenn] O’Shea and Cavendish, who will be stronger than he was at the Worlds. He was really very strong at the Tour de France. He surprised me. Roger Kluge will be dangerous in the final points race. [Lasse Norman] Hansen is the outgoing champion. He’s hidden a bit but he shouldn’t be underestimated.”
Click to expand...

despite being 6 events contested over a couple days, luck and tactics can play a big role in this event. Glenn O Shea is a chance of a medal. personally, I don't think he will win gold and a bronze is probably the best he can hope for. I think Viviani(Italy) or Gaviria(Colombia) as the top 2. Gaviria is the world champ of 15 and 16.

Odds
3.75 Gaviria (Colombia)
5.00 Cav (Manx)
5.50 O Shea (AUS)
5.50 Viviani (ITA)
7.00 Thomas Boudat (FRA)

Men's Team Sprint

NZ will win. World Champs over the last 3 years. top quality team. Our chances, slim for the win. we lack depth in the sprints for the men. perhaps an outside chance for a bronze.

1.45 NZ
4.50 France
4.50 Dutch
10.00 German
19.00 Brits
21.00 Aus

Men's Sprint
Fastest people on 2 wheels.

Kenny of Great Britain won the world champs this year. but to quote me from earlier this year
I was very surprised by Jason Kenny(of Britannia) beating Matthew Glaetzer(Aus) in the finals of the men's sprint. I was impressed Glaetzer though. will be a great chance for gold. in saying that sprinters are finely tuned athletes and anything can happen before the Olympics. Kenny dome from nowhere to win this medal. be interesting to see how his form is at the Olympics.
Click to expand...
I have always like Grégory Baugé, the big black Frenchmen. he has been the best over the last 4 years. i still have him over Glaetzer and then perhaps Kenny.

Odds
3.00 Jason Kenny(GB)
4.00 Matthew Glatzer (Australia)
6.00 Denis Dmitriev (May be banned)
7.00 Gregory Bauge (France

Mens Kerrin
I missed this race this year in the world champs. This can be a bit of a Lottery. This is the race where 6 riders fellow a derny until the last 2-3 laps. dont get me wrong, if u are quick, u stand a better chance. but Glaetzer failed to make the semis at the world champs. we have 2 entries, Constable and Glaetzer. Glaetzer is the only one with an outside chance of a medal.

Odds
4.00 Joachim Eilers (WC)(Ger)
5.50 Francois Pervis (Fra)
6.00 Eddie Dawkins (NZ)
 
Last edited:
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #2
Women's team Pursuit
We are the world record holders. But, to quote me twice about what happened last year.
Our girls TP put in a stinker. they qualified 4th with a time of 4:20. that was 7 seconds slower than last year. they were really close to missing out on the medal rounds. too close. we were only .223 ahead of a really disorganised Britain in 5th, who can only ride off for bronze now. Both those teams have got a wake-up call from the USA, who posted a really really fast time. they were 4 seconds quicker(4:16) than us on the day. we were (probably) holding back, but that time is still only 3 secs away from the WR(4:13), which we posted last year. we are missing one rider from that team last year, due to illness. i dont know if we can beat them here, as it is 1st vs 4th for a place in the final. This is no longer a 2 team race anymore. For Rio, u have to think it is a 3 horse race, between us, USA and Brits still. Be interesting to see how much improvement we have, and how Britain recovers from a downright shocking performance.
Click to expand...

USA!!USA!!!USA!! Their first TP gold. Will be a good team for a number of years. the final wasnt their best run but was good enough. interesting though, the Brits in their bronze medal race were.4 quicker than the yanks in the gold medal race. in saying that, the yanks did the best time for the meet. i dont know what happened to the Aussie team. We still hold the world record, but damm i am super worried about their form. their are excuses, Edmondson is sore, Hoskins is sick, but this is anyones medal in Rio,
Click to expand...

I know the Aussie girls have been training very hard the last couple of months and Hoskins is back.we are way better than what the bookies think and i still think(and i think the AOC do as well) that we are still a good chance to win a medal here. it just didnt work out in London world champs. main threats, as u can see above, are USA and Britain. Canada and NZ are a couple of teams which could also medal. Bronze minimum i feel for Aus.

Odds
1.60 USA
3.25 GB
10.00 Aus
12.00 NZ

Women's Omnium
At the world champs, Trott won the women's omnium over Sarah Hammer of the USA(who is a star) and Berthon of France(who i know nothing about). Annette Edmondson was hit by a car 2 weeks before the world champs, so her 5th place finish wasn't the worst. Another medal chance, as Annette is a star, who can match and beat Trott and Hammer. Still, i think Trott will win for GB. Annette for the medals, either silver or bronze. Think these 3 for the top 3. class above the rest of the field.

1.85 Laura Trott (GB)
5.50 Hammer (USA)
5.50 Edmondson (AUS)
10.00 Laurie Berthon (France)

Women's Team Sprint
No Brits here. they didn't qualify. China, Australia Germany and Perhaps Russia will challenge for the win. China had the 2 finalists in the actual sprint and are 2015 world champs; Germany has been solid for years and are 2012 gold medalists with Vogal and Whelte. Australia with Meares and Mortan are very solid as well. Russia are the world champs and runners up in 2015. If Russia gets banned, we should take a medal. if not, we will be fighting for a medal. China should win if things go according to plan. only lost the world champs only due to an illegal change which it can happen very easily in the team sprints. The brits did it in 2012 when they were heavy favs.

1.50 China
3.40 Russia
10.00 Germany
11.00 Australia

Women's Sprint

I am nearly done. we have 2 strong riders here. Steph Morton has beaten Meares in the past, but Meares got the better of her in the world champs and nationals. Morton is one of the quickest girls in the initial time trial. they are both a chance to medal. the Chinese girls will be hard to beat and Vogel of Germany is a legend as well.

Meares is not the quickest now, so she will have to rely on her experience to medal here. I don't think she has the pace for gold. Morton is quick, but probably not experienced enough.

4.50 Chinese girls (Lin, Zhong), Vogels
7.00 Ligtlee (Netherlands), Meares
10.00 James (GB)
17.00 Morton

Women's Kerrin
Last one. See men's. it can be a bit random and there will be a crossover between this and the sprint. same girls will be at the forefront, but some will be better than others. Vogels is the world champ here while Meares came 2nd. so yeah. so yeah. most of the odds follow the world champs and that can be a misleading guide, as races can be unpredictable. Horse racing on 2 wheels.

3.75 Vogel (GER)
4.00 Meares (AUS)
7.50 Guo Shang (different Chinese girl)
8.50 Becky James (GB)
....
13.00 Morton (AUS)
 
Last edited:
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #3
Of course there are 8 more events to win medals at by just riding your bike. All mens and Womens

BMX
Mountain Biking
Road Race
TT - Road

We have 2 good chances in the BMX but that is greyhound racing on 2 wheels. we are always strong on the road with Dennis and Porte in the TT. The road race is a bit hilly and will help the climbers with a bit of dash. (etc Puncheurs like Valverde.) Gerrins breaking his collarbone probably killed our best chance.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

I wouldnt write off Cavendish, his TDF was up there with his career best form but Gaviria is an unbelievable talent, will be a good event. We have no chance in the mens road race and not much of one in the womens. Kat Garfoot should be a medal shot in the TT.
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #5
grouse mate said:
I wouldnt write off Cavendish, his TDF was up there with his career best form but Gaviria is an unbelievable talent, will be a good event. We have no chance in the mens road race and not much of one in the womens. Kat Garfoot should be a medal shot in the TT.
Click to expand...
yeah, probably the event i am most looking forward to, outside the team pursuits. it is such a shame that the races are all around the clock. it will make it hard to keep track of.

what happened at the worlds was that Cav had a slow kilo TT and 4K time trial. I just think that is really concerning plus the tour preparation itself was not ideal despite his form. i do really hope i am right. i really want GB to not win the medal tally this year in the track. I love that Cav is back on the track and it is such a shame there is no Madison event/more events. damm BMX.

I just show u a quote from Viviani again about Cav, which he made in Jan this year.i just thought it was interesting when i saw it
“The Tour de France is so close to the Olympics. After the Tour you have a really good condition. For sure he has the endurance for the points race but it could cost him in the kilo. At the Olympics you can’t afford to pay too much in the kilo because if you lose 20 points in the kilo… you’re not out, but yeah…

“You need to be 100 per cent in all six specialties, so it’s more difficult, I think, to have all those focuses.”
Click to expand...
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #6
Mens Road Race. (change the title, might as well include all cycling in this thread)

starts at 10:30pm and ends roughly 5am. 237.5KM and one of the toughest one-day race this year. Mr Phil said there are some corners which are 20-30% in gradient. It is a climbers course with cobbles and crosswinds similar to the one-day classics. but the climbs are much tougher than those racers. 8.9K at 6.9% for the Canoas climbs. I cry reading that. see below for profile.

It is a course that is most similar to the one day race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, which was won by Wout Poels. The test event in 2015 was won by Alexis Vuillermoz (France), followed by Belgium’s Serge Pauwels and another French athlete Romain Bardet. the defending champ is Alexander Vinokourov, who of course retired after that race.


Screen-Shot-2016-08-05-at-11.56.50-AM.png


Aussies completing are Simon Clarke, Rohan Dennis and Tasmanians Riche Porte and mountain bike rider, Scott Bowden. we can only have so many cycling athletes at the games, and so Scott is filling in as we have one extra member in the team pursuit team. Simon Clarke came 10th in the test event, which followed a similar course, but with a much smaller field.

It is going to be a battle of the fittest and toughest with the small teams(pro cycling teams have 8-10 riders on average, the best here have 5) and a very tough and long course.

good article by Phil Ligget
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport...e/news-story/101afe57a5bfa64f455e177be80bfb8e

Favs (odds)
5.50 Alejandro Valverde (ESP)
8.50 Vincenzo Nibali (ITA)
11.00 Chris Froome (GBR)
17.00 Daniel Martin (IRE)
17.00 Julian Alaphilippe (FRE)
17.00 Joaquim Rodriguez (ESP)
21.00 Rui Costa (POR)
23.00 Wout Poels (NED)
29.00 Michal Kwiatkowski (POL)
29.00 Bauke Mollema (NED)
29.00 Romain Bardet (FRA)
34.00 Greg Van Avermaet (BEL)

our best shot is Richie Porte at $51. But as you can tell, it is a really open race. personally, i think it is too tough for Froome and i reckon he drop out early to save himself for the TT. just a hunch. Valverde showed good form at the tour and has a sprint to finish it at the end, so he deserves to be fav. watch out for the French. they had 4 of the top 6 in the test event last year.

If any climbers last till the last circuit(like Froome, Columbians, Porte etc), watch them attack to prevent the sprint finish. it is a steep and dangerous descent and only the brave will get away. my non-expert opinion; I expect the stronger teams of ESP and FRA to dominate the race tempo and control it. one of them will be the winners. I go with Valverde with a kick at the end.

Note: i know nothing about the women. they do the same course, but only one circuit at the end. just odds below.
3.50 Anna van der Breggen (NED)
5.50 Elizabeth Armitstead (GBR)
6.00 Marianne Vos (NED)
 
Last edited:
Bloody Brits decided to put the pressure on the peleton right as Richie's chain crapped itself on the cobblestones again.

I reckon that might be curtains for his chances :(

The Brits are all over this race, reckon it's just a matter of when Froome decides to go bang on the climb...
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #17
Its cycling. it is the thing.

hard to get a gauge of the race. Others need to help Spain though. they out of team members.

Great course, though. I think the road race has found its place on the Olympic schedule. a showcase of the Olympic city.

RICHIE!!!!! :( Collarbone it looks like as well.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top