Risk Management

[76woodenspooners]

We all deal with risk in our day-to-day lives.

It's everywhere - the risk of shopping for a motor car and getting a reliable one, the risk of asking someone out on a date, even the risk of ordering a meal from a menu.

Do you order the spag bol because you know what you're going to get, or do you take a punt on the steak tartare because you like tartare sauce on fish and are curious about whether it works with steak?

Many of us deal with risk management in our jobs. Engineers have "Failure Mode and Effect Analysis" in their many forms. Insurance actuaries and bookmakers live and breathe risk.

We know that some senior coaches (including Buckley) go through "what if" scenarios before games. What if it starts raining? What if opposition player X moves forward? What if ...? It helps the match day committee mitigate risk by being able to deal with situations quickly and decisively as they arise. And sometimes the challenge for the folks in the coaching box is to pull a move that the opposition don't see coming or are unprepared for.

Of course not all situations could be or should be anticipated. Any organisation that gets bogged down in the minutiae of anything that could go wrong, never actually achieves anything.

Risk is a function of probability and consequence.

Probability of Cloke getting injured? He's durable, but it's possible. Consequences of Cloke getting injured? Not good. Therefore "Cloke getting injured" is a risk that would be mitigated and planned for.

Here's another one for the folks playing at home: Probability of high incidence of player injury with a first-year-at-club fitness coach? Possible. Consequences? Not good.

Of all the mistakes that the club has been blamed for on here, am surprised that risk management hasn't come up much if at all.

Of course we get little insight into the club's risk management processes. But blaming things on bad luck might be an indicator that there is room for improvement.

"Bad luck" is a lament of the punters, not of the bookmakers.

Thoughts?

 

[Anzacday]

Interestingly Davoren said at the forum he doesn't believe in bad luck

 

[76woodenspooners]

Interestingly Davoren said at the forum he doesn't believe in bad luck

That's encouraging, a positive attitude by him

Not what I've heard from others in the club during pressers.

 

[Stifler's mom]

 

[Stifler's mom]

Is it a coincidence that there is an ad for risk management with this thread?

 

[76woodenspooners]

Is it a coincidence that there is an ad for risk management with this thread?

Google adwords can be scary at times with its targeted advertising.

Although it is a bit tardy in this case

 

[Robroy22]

"Bad luck" is a lament of the punters, not of the bookmakers."

Bookies live on the bad luck of others. They have a choice on choosing any side of any game. The bookmakers can back all or none of the participants (and all variations in between). As footy clubs and supporters we are consigned to being the punters whether we like it or not. We don't have access to all the "form" and we don't follow the sport as a financial opportunity (well I don't anyway) hence if a "favourite is scratched" I don't just get to curse my bad luck and move onto the next race, I am sometimes forced to watch an entire season of compromised "races" due to my favourites not being on the track.

I take it that you wish us all to disassociate ourselves from the team and back another horse? Cos that's all a bookie would do. It's a lot easier to take $$$ from a passionate "punter" than it is from a cold blooded, disassociated supporter. But is that the sort of supporters our great club deserves?

 

[vjknight]

Google adwords can be scary at times with its targeted advertising.

Although it is a bit tardy in this case

But I've never been to an Asian girls website

 

[Adz]

To the OP - I think you've had a bit too much to drink or smoked a bit too much weed.

 

[PTpie]

I agree in part with what you're saying here. I do feel though that in football (and in life) sometimes what you put in is what you get out of it. By that I mean we had some shitty injuries right from the start of preseason 2014. Probably the same as most clubs with surgeries and what not. Unfortunately the players that needed those procedures were all either key players or young talent. When everyone around you is succumbing to injury(or illness), rather than focusing on yourself, you can get caught up in a mental attitude of "I don't want to get injured", personally I've found the more I think about what I don't want, the more I seem get it. I know its a stupid metaphysical, spiritual piece of crap, but in my experience its what happens.

As the season progressed whether due to "bad luck" or being overloaded other key players were hampered by injury. Therefore the load on our senior players and the kids coming through was much more than anticipated. This is where risk management comes in. Do we continue with our conditioning program? Should would modify it now due to these unforeseen absences? Or do we just keep on keeping on as it seems we are doing alright?

I'd guess Davoren and his team would be all over this stuff like flies on poo and would really know how the players are tracking. They would be aware which players are kidding themselves and which are actually right, wrong or indifferent, due to the crazy amounts of testing and analysis they do each and every day.

Sometimes shit happens. I would be highly surprised if the club wasn't committed to due diligence in the preparation and recovery of its most prized assets - the players.

Again this just my own experience and opinion. I'm not a sports science guy but I can't recall in 20+ years of being a psychotic sports nut seeing a team as badly affected by injury as Collingwood this year.

 

[76woodenspooners]

"Bad luck" is a lament of the punters, not of the bookmakers."

Bookies live on the bad luck of others. They have a choice on choosing any side of any game. The bookmakers can back all or none of the participants (and all variations in between). As footy clubs and supporters we are consigned to being the punters whether we like it or not. We don't have access to all the "form" and we don't follow the sport as a financial opportunity (well I don't anyway) hence if a "favourite is scratched" I don't just get to curse my bad luck and move onto the next race, I am sometimes forced to watch an entire season of compromised "races" due to my favourites not being on the track.

I take it that you wish us all to disassociate ourselves from the team and back another horse? Cos that's all a bookie would do. It's a lot easier to take $$$ from a passionate "punter" than it is from a cold blooded, disassociated supporter. But is that the sort of supporters our great club deserves?

I think you've taken my point the wrong way.

Bookies can manage their risk by taking out covering bets. (Or insurance companies can cover their exposure to risk using re-insurers).

It's just an example of mitigating risk.

Another example is having Ben Hudson sitting on the rookie list as backup in case Witts and /or Grundy need a rest or become up available

Yet another example is putting Armstrong on the list when one of our small defenders is due to front up to court for assault.

 

[Cyclops]

... do you take a punt on the steak tartare because you like tartare sauce on fish and are curious about whether it works with steak?...

...in which case you'll be in for a surprise, cos they'll bring ya raw mince with a raw egg on top lol.

 

[jmac70]

To the OP - I think you've had a bit too much to drink or smoked a bit too much weed.

Define too much.

 

[Robroy22]

I think you've taken my point the wrong way.

Bookies can manage their risk by taking out covering bets. (Or insurance companies can cover their exposure to risk using re-insurers).

It's just an example of mitigating risk.

Another example is having Ben Hudson sitting on the rookie list as backup in case Witts and /or Grundy need a rest or become up available

Yet another example is putting Armstrong on the list when one of our small defenders is due to front up to court for assault.

Actually I was only really looking at that one sentence: that "Bad luck is the lament of punters, not of the bookmakers"
Don't think I missed it's meaning. I'm sure all footy clubs plan (as best they might) against all sorts of risks and I'm sure the Maggies did this season as well. The fact that key pieces of the puzzle kept falling away meant that we were never far from teetering off a cliff as we did after the 8-3 start.
Been around this sort of thing all my life in sports and you know that some injuries (like the ACL's) and Freeman's and Marsh's hamstrings (and Cyril's) are just unavoidable unless the athlete doesn't play. Benny Reid missing 95% of the season killed our best laid plans and Nath Brown, Maxy and Tooves missing so many games really exposed our baby back line.

The tide will turn with injuries (it always does) and we'll have another year like 2010 when hardly any vital player got injured or reported. Until then, I'll back the boys we send out on the park and enjoy the youngsters we have coming through.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I agree in part with what you're saying here. I do feel though that in football (and in life) sometimes what you put in is what you get out of it. By that I mean we had some shitty injuries right from the start of preseason 2014. Probably the same as most clubs with surgeries and what not. Unfortunately the players that needed those procedures were all either key players or young talent. When everyone around you is succumbing to injury(or illness), rather than focusing on yourself, you can get caught up in a mental attitude of "I don't want to get injured", personally I've found the more I think about what I don't want, the more I seem get it. I know its a stupid metaphysical, spiritual piece of crap, but in my experience its what happens.

It's not a "stupid metaphysical, spiritual piece of crap" at all.

It's the way the world works ...

Some examples:

"Don't think of Pink Elephants" ...

... So what are you thinking about right now? ( Adz will be thinking that I really am drunk / stoned )

Another example: How often in advertising do you see companies mention their competitors by name? It's very very rare, and when it does happen it's even rarer by an established brand. Why pay to give brand awareness to your competitor?

I'd guess Davoren and his team would be all over this stuff like flies on poo and would really know how the players are tracking. They would be aware which players are kidding themselves and which are actually right, wrong or indifferent, due to the crazy amounts of testing and analysis they do each and every day.

I don't think it's Davoren's role to do that. What is the probability of risk of injuries when a first-year-at-club sports science guy comes on board? It's Pert who should have been all over that one (maybe he was).

Sometimes shit happens. I would be highly surprised if the club wasn't committed to due diligence in the preparation and recovery of its most prized assets - the players.

7 ACL's in 3 years says that there is more to be done.

Again this just my own experience and opinion. I'm not a sports science guy but I can't recall in 20+ years of being a psychotic sports nut seeing a team as badly affected by injury as Collingwood this year.

Good post

 

[76woodenspooners]

Been around this sort of thing all my life in sports and you know that some injuries (like the ACL's) and Freeman's and Marsh's hamstrings (and Cyril's) are just unavoidable unless the athlete doesn't play. Benny Reid missing 95% of the season killed our best laid plans and Nath Brown, Maxy and Tooves missing so many games really exposed our baby back line.

Saying something is "just unavoidable" is the same as saying something is "bad luck".

Both are admitting that we are affected by circumstances that we have no control over. I just don't think that's correct attitude.

Take another example: the weather. It's all too easy to scoff and say "well, we have no control over whether it rains or not" (as coaches did used to say back in the old days!) - but in fact we do have control over it: we can train in (simulated) wet weather conditions so if it does rain then the team are prepared.

Back to injuries. We said after the second ACL in 2012 that we were having very bad luck. We've had another five since. How many more would we need to have before it's recognised that there could be something causal that we are in control of? (Eade admitted as much in his last injury report this season)

Of course, there are "wrong place, wrong time" type injuries that are part of the calculated risk of playing AFL footy (eg: Thomas' original ankle injury). But there are also injuries like 'Caf's recent ACL: the knee just collapsed without warning - nothing "wrong place, wrong time" about it. Same with Freeman's first hamstring. Same with Scharenberg's ACL.

The tide will turn with injuries (it always does) and we'll have another year like 2010 when hardly any vital player got injured or reported. Until then, I'll back the boys we send out on the park and enjoy the youngsters we have coming through.

I'm totally with you - it is wonderful to see young lads get an opportunity and make the most of it. But would prefer that opportunities weren't created by injuries to key players.

 

[76woodenspooners]

...in which case you'll be in for a surprise, cos they'll bring ya raw mince with a raw egg on top lol.

Indeed, that was my point

 

[Robroy22]

Now we can control both the weather and ACL's.....next you'll solve the road toll and world peace.

 

[Trickster]

I think it's an interesting post and fair question to ask.

An area that this resonates is with regards to our increase in training and potentially accepting that some injuries may occur as a result along the way. this risk may have been offset by the fact that other clubs were so much fitter than us and therefore if we don't significantly improve our fitness we'd never seriously be a contender.

Injuries may have also been factored in initially with a longer term view of having a superior fitness base down the track.

I also think the club has attempted to mitigate the risk of trading out established players for high picks with recruiting free agents. It's regenerating on the run to have a tilt now while also building for the future? Obviously they haven't worked out as well as planned, but thankfully Dawes, daisy and Wellingham haven't done much either meaning even if they were still at our club,we may be only marginally better now but with older players and fewer first rounders through the door.

So in short, I think the club has to some extent satisfactorily attempted to do this on the topics I have mentioned here but not sure about other areas.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Now we can control both the weather ...

My point is that we can control the way we're affected by it, but you knew that

...and ACL's...

Once upon a time folks would have scoffed at the idea of controlling the plague

I truly think that some ACLs are within out control.

Of course if a 120 kg ruckman falls on your leg the wrong way in a marking contest and tears your ACL - can't do much about that.

But if a player is frolicking gaily on a footy ground and then randomly goes down from a sniper's bullet ... Might be a good idea to find out where that sniper is hiding!

(FWIW, Knightmare has written some stuff about injury prevention training at the Phoenix Suns. I'm not saying that's an answer to our ACL woes, I'm just citing it as an example where a sporting team can choose to take responsibility for their injury situation)

... next you'll solve the road toll ...

Good example ...

A combination of "drink drive, bloody idiot", "speed kills", speed cameras, booze busses, improved car safety standards, lowering of speed limits, improved roads, etc has reduced the Victorian road toll significantly ...

1973: 935
1983: 664
1993: 436
2003: 330
2013: 242

... and world peace.

That's a tough one.

MAD went some way to reducing global conflict, but like ACL's, it'll never be totally eliminated

 

[Robroy22]

My point is that we can control the way we're affected by it, but you knew that



Once upon a time folks would have scoffed at the idea of controlling the plague

I truly think that some ACLs are within out control.

Of course if a 120 kg ruckman falls on your leg the wrong way in a marking contest and tears your ACL - can't do much about that.

But if a player is frolicking gaily on a footy ground and then randomly goes down from a sniper's bullet ... Might be a good idea to find out where that sniper is hiding!

(FWIW, Knightmare has written some stuff about injury prevention training at the Phoenix Suns. I'm not saying that's an answer to our ACL woes, I'm just citing it as an example where a sporting team can choose to take responsibility for their injury situation)



Good example ...

A combination of "drink drive, bloody idiot", "speed kills", speed cameras, booze busses, improved car safety standards, lowering of speed limits, improved roads, etc has reduced the Victorian road toll significantly ...

1973: 935
1983: 664
1993: 436
2003: 330
2013: 242



That's a tough one.

MAD went some way to reducing global conflict, but like ACL's, it'll never be totally eliminated

Wow...that was like drawing teeth!
and so, we're back with the gamblers again!

 

[DAWESOME!!]

Good example ...

A combination of "drink drive, bloody idiot", "speed kills", speed cameras, booze busses, improved car safety standards, lowering of speed limits, improved roads, etc has reduced the Victorian road toll significantly ...

1973: 935
1983: 664
1993: 436
2003: 330
2013: 242

Nah man, everyone knows that speed cameras are just there to raise money for the government. I know this because idiots who speed and write letters to the Herald Sun tell me that is the case.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Wow...that was like drawing teeth!

C'mon, there's a big difference between "7 ACL's in 3" years and "0 ACL's in 3 years".

There are outcomes in between.

Just because we might not be able to achieve zero, it doesn't mean that we shouldn't strive for it.

And even if can cut it down to 6, 5, 4, etc ... we'll be better off.

... and so, we're back with the gamblers again!

You'll never get perfect outcomes in the biological sciences

 

[Cyclops]

Indeed, that was my point

Yeah the missus had that in Paris, looked awful. She tried the snails too, I had one and it didn't taste like anything. I went for the steak and croissants because had researched them thoroughly, so risk managed.

 

[Captivating]

C'mon, there's a big difference between "7 ACL's in 3" years and "0 ACL's in 3 years".

There are outcomes in between.

Just because we might not be able to achieve zero, it doesn't mean that we shouldn't strive for it.

And even if can cut it down to 6, 5, 4, etc ... we'll be better off.


You'll never get perfect outcomes in the biological sciences

Is there a big difference between 7 and 0? Given the number of incidents where a knee injury could occur, I'm betting that there is no statistical difference between 7 and 0 ACL s. It's just a random chance. A zero outcome is just a likely as a 7.