List Mgmt. Ross Lyon - Sacked

[Rion]

Back in 2016 on Footy Classified, episode 9 (iirc), Matthew Lloyd analysed this in depth. The results were staggering. We were bracketed in with Collingwood as the two teams most adversely affected by the reduction in stoppages (my memory is shaky but I'm pretty sure Richmond were also impacted). I've sent requests to Ch9 (Melbourne and Sydney) in the past for a copy of this episode but they were extremely unhelpful to say the least. I just put another SOS into the Bigfooty Statistics forum to see if they can help, so fingers crossed. But Lloyd's (or, more correctly, Champion Data's) stats nailed the issue perfectly.

Your point about Footscray generating pressure around the contest supports this - faster players get to more contests, and quickly outnumber their opposition and win more ball, leaving the likes of Barlow and Fishpub trailing in their wake.


Looking at the stats Blakely did have a good 2016 (15 games), while Weller had a better start and posted the results you'd hope for from a quick, skinny first round pick (12 goals, 22 games, lots of turnovers). But Heeney (28 goals) and particularly Mills had scary good debuts, playing 24 games each. As for Franklin it was his second best ever year in front of goals (81) and whilst he's more a naughty boy than a messiah he could be relied upon to produce enough miracles that year to halt any from grace.

But ignoring the players above the Swans, overall, had more leg-speed than us (Rohan, Towers, Papley, Rampe etc) to help shield them from the changes.

If you are right on those stats I'll have to cede that point then. It would help to have some idea though on what basis those stats were generated on because we certainly weren't the only team that had a slow midfield or the only one that built a game around stoppages.

But regardless doesn't that speak to the tactical inflexibility of Ross? Pretty much every other team in the league coped fine yet Ross and his team couldn't. He spent 4 years building a team that got toppled the moment the league slightly changed. Ross is a poster boy for ugly football (and rightly so in my mind), his teams will always be the most hit by rule changes designed to open up the game (of which you can guarantee more are coming).

 

[its free real estate]

The idea that the AFL changed the game from 2015-2016 seasons to such a degree that a top tier coach went from being top of the ladder in 2015 to winless for 10 rounds in 2016 is fanciful. The reality is the signs of decline were evident in the latter half of 2015, when the team went from being undefeated in the first half of the season to being unable to beat anyone of note in the second half. It had nothing to do with rule changes and everything to do with list decline. We hold the record for season-to-season movements on the ladder.

 

[dominguez]

I just don't get how he's still seen as this 'super-coach' when every sign from the last three years points otherwise. Now maybe we can brandish some excuses here that gets him off the hook a little (and I think there's definitely some valid ones there) but I certainly don't think you can paint his coaching efforts for awhile now in any sort of positive light and that has to have some valid questions that come with it.

IMO Ross has enough runs on the board and has had enough excuses for our form 2016-2018. Next year is make or break, we need to push for finals for him to be guaranteed to see out his contract. Bottom 5 next year and Ross is done.

 

[dominguez]

I agree that eventually Hawthorn, WC, Geelong, Sydney etc will have to dip down but it will without a doubt not be to the same length of time we've already spent down here, let alone the time we may still have to go before we're back. Hawthorn did one rebuild and have sustained over 10 years of consistent competitiveness out of it and who knows if they have the capacity to do a Collingwood esque soft rebuild (where the team hangs around mid-table) and challenge again without falling too hard down the ditch like us.

Collingwood and especially Hawthorn are a destination club though. If we had replaced Barlow and Crowley with OMeara and Mitchell we would be a lot stronger than we currently are.

 

[dominguez]

It comes down to some of our recruiting decisions that has killed us in the old term and the Eagles making better decisions.

Look at the some of the stuff ups.
1. Selecting Brown over Glass
2. Trading our first round pick and instead picking up Judd or Hodge
3. Selecting Pitt over Darling
4. Selecting Simpson over Grundy
5. Not rooking J McGovern
6. Playing overs for Headland (not doing the resource on his knees)
7. Not getting Yeo
Etc

You take Yeo and McGovern out the eagles and place him in our team, you have a huge turn around.

A lot of the issues pre-Ross are development related. Guys like Headland, Peake, Polak, Murphy, Campbell, Clarke, Medhurst showed plenty of potential year one then never improved.

If Glass or Hodge had been drafted by Freo they wouldn't have had the careers they had because Connolly was a wally.

 

[its free real estate]

Guys like Headland, Peake, Polak, Murphy, Campbell, Clarke, Medhurst showed plenty of potential year one then never improved.

How does this differ to Sutcliffe, Sheridan, Suban etc?

 

[dominguez]

At the end of 2015 Ross did make changes. Guerra and Hale came in and we tried to copy the Hawthorn model of being more attacking. Our players didn't have the skills to pull it off and it failed dramatically.

 

[dominguez]

How does this differ to Sutcliffe, Sheridan, Suban etc?

There were games where you thought Sutcliffe, Sheridan and Suban would be A graders? They always looked like role players in the Mzungu, Clancee mould to me.

Murphy kicked 50 WAFL goals as a teenager then declined. Polak went close to winning the rising star then went backwards. Medhurst was a good young player, got dropped to the WAFL and traded, then became an All Australian at another club. Des Headland was the Brownlow favourite heading into the 2003 season.

 

[Rion]

IMO Ross has enough runs on the board and has had enough excuses for our form 2016-2018. Next year is make or break, we need to push for finals for him to be guaranteed to see out his contract. Bottom 5 next year and Ross is done.

Yeah he's definitely got some on the board but I reckon we're nearing the stage where they're nearly almost used up. But I agree next year is going to define him. I mean I'm personally cheering for him to make it, it'd certainly be a lot easier for us if we aren't forced into dealing with dragging another Victorian based coach over here to take over.

Collingwood and especially Hawthorn are a destination club though. If we had replaced Barlow and Crowley with OMeara and Mitchell we would be a lot stronger than we currently are.

I think it means you've just got to be smarter. Either that or throw up your hands and surrender to the inherent unfairness in the league. We might not be able to get O'Meara or Mitchell but we certainly could have got a guy like Yeo for example.

 

[its free real estate]

There were games where you thought Sutcliffe, Sheridan and Suban would be A graders? They always looked like role players in the Mzungu, Clancee mould to me.

Murphy kicked 50 WAFL goals as a teenager then declined. Polak went close to winning the rising star then went backwards. Medhurst was a good young player, got dropped to the WAFL and traded, then became an All Australian at another club. Des Headland was the Brownlow favourite heading into the 2003 season.

I never thought any other latter lot would be A graders aside from Headland. Funnily enough, Des averaged more Brownlow votes per game for Freo than Stephen Hill has. IMO, Des was the better player.

Don't see the current crop of youth such as Giro, Crowden, etc being anything above Jesse Crichton class of footballer. Jesse Crichton however did play in a winning final, something that's seemingly forgotten.

But I'm not sure what your point is - our current development is good, but our drafting is bad? Why are we enduring our worst stretch under any one coach since Drum?

 

[dominguez]

Don't see the current crop of youth such as Giro, Crowden, etc being anything above Jesse Crichton class of footballer. Jesse Crichton however did play in a winning final, something that's seemingly forgotten.

Time will tell, I like Crowden.

But I'm not sure what your point is - our current development is good, but our drafting is bad?

That you can cherry pick duds from any club.

Why are we enduring our worst stretch under any one coach since Drum?

Because we have turned over half our list and many of our senior players are injured.

 

[its free real estate]

Because we have turned over half our list and many of our senior players are injured.

We collapsed before we turned over the list. What went wrong?

 

[jedi mind tricks]

We collapsed before we turned over the list. What went wrong?

8 posts on a new account and all taking aim at Freo management and recruitment

Sounds suss

 

[its free real estate]

8 posts on a new account and all taking aim at Freo management and recruitment

Sounds suss

It's free real estate.

 

[Purple Jesus]

I never thought any other latter lot would be A graders aside from Headland. Funnily enough, Des averaged more Brownlow votes per game for Freo than Stephen Hill has. IMO, Des was the better player.

Don't see the current crop of youth such as Giro, Crowden, etc being anything above Jesse Crichton class of footballer. Jesse Crichton however did play in a winning final, something that's seemingly forgotten.

But I'm not sure what your point is - our current development is good, but our drafting is bad? Why are we enduring our worst stretch under any one coach since Drum?

You spelt Cr@£$!%!t3n wrong.

 

[FreoMonocle]

I disagree on giving him an out about his massive part in the degradation but that's just my opinion.

We were getting late draft picks instead of top 5 draft picks because we were winning, as coach that is the bit he is responsible for. That is his part in the list degradation and it is a good problem to have, it only accounts for a small portion of the list woes.

If you don't think he gets an out, he therefore is responsible. So, have at it, aside from 3-4 years of bad draft picks due to winning, where is he responsible for the list degradation?

Here is a good starting point http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/club/history/draft-history As we still have Mundy, Sandi and Jonho on the list, take it from after Mundy, so 2004.

Draft Players missing that could be on the list still. This is the drafting preceding Ross, we should still have at least 8-10 more players from these drafts still on the list (players 24 years old and over).

2004 Josh Carr (played for 3 years) or the traded picks (11, 27, 45). Copping, Stribling, Haines, Krieger, Juniper, Crowley, Schofield
2005 Marcus Drum, Robert Warnock, Ibbotson, Warnock, Duffield, Stribling
2006 Chris Tarrant (or the traded pick 8 and Medhurst), Clayton Collard, O'Brien, Mourish, Smith, Foster, Rumble, Copping
2007 Rhys Palmer, Clayton Hinkley, Mayne, Mark Johnson, Bradley, Connelly, Pratt, Dunn, Head
2008 Suban, Zarke, Bucovaz, Ruffles, Hall, Sibosado, de Boer, Shepheard, Clancee, van Berlo, Broughton
2009 Morabito, Houghton, Crichton, Roberton, Barlow, Silvagni, McPhee
2010 Pitt, Michie , Roberts, Lower, Bucovaz, Ruffles, Anthony
2011 Crozier, Forster, Schloithe, Menegola, Wilson King, Clancee, Dawson

Who out of that, should we still have on the list? Barlow, maybe Menegola, Crozier and de Boer. Barlow I will pay as being Ross (he only needed to enforce that he was a required player). In general, this is just list management failure, they picked and traded awfully and didn't give us enough talent worth being here in ten years time, or were the footy gods fault (Morabito, Pitt).

Not a lot of degradation that you can pin on Ross that was drafted since he was here - Simpson walked out in a hissy fit, could be a Ross issue in how he was handled but, drafting suck a fickle player in the first place goes back to the list manager. Robertons girlfriend knocked up aint Ross's fault, Yarran was Yarrans fault - or list managers fault for procuring him, Weller for Brayshaw - is this even an issue? Is there anyone in the deadwood that has been cut that you think Ross should have up as a B22 player?

 

[stax on the mull]

2004 Josh Carr (played for 3 years) or the traded picks (11, 27, 45). Copping, Stribling, Haines, Krieger, Juniper, Crowley, Schofield
2005 Marcus Drum, Robert Warnock, Ibbotson, Warnock, Duffield, Stribling
2006 Chris Tarrant (or the traded pick 8 and Medhurst), Clayton Collard, O'Brien, Mourish, Smith, Foster, Rumble, Copping
2007 Rhys Palmer, Clayton Hinkley, Mayne, Mark Johnson, Bradley, Connelly, Pratt, Dunn, Head
2008 Suban, Zarke, Bucovaz, Ruffles, Hall, Sibosado, de Boer, Shepheard, Clancee, van Berlo, Broughton
2009 Morabito, Houghton, Crichton, Roberton, Barlow, Silvagni, McPhee
2010 Pitt, Michie , Roberts, Lower, Bucovaz, Ruffles, Anthony
2011 Crozier, Forster, Schloithe, Menegola, Wilson King, Clancee, Dawson

I can see you've missed Mellington, but even the semi-official list on that linked page to the Fremantle website misses Bollenhagen. Plus, there's a couple that we technically traded for with pre-draft pick movements to Gold Coast like Faulks and Mzungu.

 

[Steinfreo]

Apeness, Mora, the heart kid cant remember his name being busts didn't help. Right now they'd either be in their primes ot approaching

 

[Dormammu]

But regardless doesn't that speak to the tactical inflexibility of Ross? Pretty much every other team in the league coped fine yet Ross and his team couldn't. He spent 4 years building a team that got toppled the moment the league slightly changed. Ross is a poster boy for ugly football (and rightly so in my mind), his teams will always be the most hit by rule changes designed to open up the game (of which you can guarantee more are coming).

FreoMonocle 's painful-to-read post below pretty much addresses the question of our inability to quickly adapt tactically. Bear in mind too that every other club - and most were below us, with better draft picks and often more cap space - were scrambling after the same type of player. This explains why, for example, Billy "Zero Tackles" Hartung was snapped up by Norfs so quickly. And while researching your arguments I found that our coaching team responded as best they probably could by starting Weller in round 1 in 2016 (which surprised me). Some might argue that this smacked of desperation and they might be right.

Your question remains though - does Ross have good tactical nous? Listening to him I believe he is quite sound and as good as Clarkson and the Scott twins who I consider to be at the top. But the reality is is that none of us know. What we DO know is the following:
1. He has a history of generating enormous loyalty from his players, and is extremely loyal to them, which I believe has been the basis for his coaching success.
2. This loyalty can be a double-edged sword if he plays them for too long, or when they are out of form. And, you might suggest, when rules change.
3. But my understanding is that both he and the match committee are awake to this and that they have never been shy about over-ruling him (Bond got a lot of experience in this from dealing with Harvey).
4. Something I've heard from assistant coaches is that they (which I took to be the coaching fraternity) really don't know all the tactics an opposition team used during a game until they review the tapes the next day (the down the ground videos in particular). So for some time now developing and analysing tactics has been a group responsibility as it is simply too complex and wide-ranging for just one person.

 

[its free real estate]

2006 Chris Tarrant (or the traded pick 8 and Medhurst)

This trade hurts more than we remember. There were lot of good talls in that draft (Jack Riewoldt went at the pick we had originally), we could have picked up a McPharlin or Pavlich replacement with our first pick. Instead we got someone who didn't want to be here, had to be remade into a defender to salvage something out of the deal, and left as soon as his contract finished.

 

[Kram]

This trade hurts more than we remember. There were lot of good talls in that draft (Jack Riewoldt went at the pick we had originally), we could have picked up a McPharlin or Pavlich replacement with our first pick. Instead we got someone who didn't want to be here, had to be remade into a defender to salvage something out of the deal, and left as soon as his contract finished.

I've always maintained this was a way worse than the Croad trade. You think they would have learnt their lesson in paying big to get blokes over that didn't want to be here.

 

[Freoforever86]

IMO Ross has enough runs on the board and has had enough excuses for our form 2016-2018. Next year is make or break, we need to push for finals for him to be guaranteed to see out his contract. Bottom 5 next year and Ross is done.

Agree completely, if we have a completely healthy list round 1 2019 then there’s no way we should be bottom 5. Main thing I wanna see is a healthy %.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

This trade hurts more than we remember. There were lot of good talls in that draft (Jack Riewoldt went at the pick we had originally), we could have picked up a McPharlin or Pavlich replacement with our first pick. Instead we got someone who didn't want to be here, had to be remade into a defender to salvage something out of the deal, and left as soon as his contract finished.

He did renew his contract and although he didn't live up to expectations as a forward he was still very handy as a defender.

I'd still rather we have used the pick for a young key forward but it's all good in hindsight with Riewoltd.

 

[Scham]

IMO Ross has enough runs on the board and has had enough excuses for our form 2016-2018. Next year is make or break, we need to push for finals for him to be guaranteed to see out his contract. Bottom 5 next year and Ross is done.

I feel it'll be too late then. Fyfe, Mundy, Sandi definitely won't be around in 2021 and if we don't progress next year, we'll more than likely lose Neale, Langdon and Cerra among others by 2021. Which means another rebuild.

Should have acted last year. Definitely need massive changes this year.

 

[jedi mind tricks]

I've always maintained this was a way worse than the Croad trade. You think they would have learnt their lesson in paying big to get blokes over that didn't want to be here.

IMO the Crowd trade was 50/50

Luke McPharlain ended up being our best key back and one of our best players. Crowd could have been better and it didn't help that at the time with Drum we were struggling.

Hodge was a massive miss and maybe Freo coukd have kept the pick and drafted Hodge and used something else to get Luke Mc because at the time he wouldn't have been valued as high.