Roulette tips?

[Mocca]

Put it all on 45! I've got a feeling about that number.
The wheel only goes to 36.
Put it all on 36! I've got a feeling about that number.

 

[GFC MAD!]

Put a chip on 35 of the 36 numbers.

Then you have a 35/36 chance of winning another chip, and a 1/36 chance of losing all your chips.
The only way you'll lose a chip is if the wheel lands on the only number that has no chip on it!!

I mean, if you put one chip on the board and the number comes up, you win 36 chips. So if you put 35 chips on the board, you'll have huge odds to win 36 chips - thats one extra!!

Is there a limit on how many chips you can place on the board?

If not, go to the bank, withdraws 3500, and put $100 on 35 chips - and you'll have the remarkable 35/36 chance of winning another $100!!

 

[Uncle Steve]

Originally posted by Smokin
3% for a casino game is huge.

Nope. Keno, chuck-a-luck, even the pokies serve the house with a far greater edge. Blackjack and craps, for the intelligent player, have slightly less.

Biased wheels are a myth. That book, like many roulette books, are there for the author to make money, not the reader.

Think about it - how can a wheel be biased towards red or black, or odd and even? what mechanical fault could possibly do this?

Fairly obviously: If the wheel has a tilt, however slight, then the point at which the ball dops from the rim will be biased towards the high point. Other factors like warping of the wheel may introduce similar biases.

The only way is if the ball is magnatised in some way - which is pure cheating on the part of a casino, but I wouldnt put it past them. Weighted "Big wheels" arnt anything new. If you did get such a wheel, rest assured the bias would be there for the houses benefit, not yours.

It would be stupid of the house to introduce an observable bias to any of its games. While there is no bias, the house has an edge.

Watching the location of the ball when it is released in relation to the board, then analysing the region of the board where the ball lands can sometimes offer some sort of consistency.

But, your NEVER going to be able to narrow it down to red/black or odd/even, but the region of the board perhaps.

Then, you get funny bounces and rebounds which stuff everything up anyway.

As you note, the roulette wheel is a complex system and its behaviour is highly chaotic. Small perturbations to the input may produce wild variation in the results.

Some of the pioneers in chaos theory (the name Farmer springs to mind - try a net search on the terms Farmer, chaos and roulette) supposedly determined a system through which the number could be predicted to within a small neighbourhood based on crude observations of the ball's speed and the wheel's deceleration rate. I believe they had moderate success when trying out their system in a real casino. However this involved the player wearing a tactile computer in his shoe - not something the casual punter would want to do!

For some reason, roulette "seems" to be beatable, and as a result it has been examined by all sorts more stingently than any other game, but it cant be beaten.

Ever notice casino's having readily available pencils and cards to fill in? It is a technique by casinos to encourage people to work out systems and biases in this game.

Like card counting, if this myth was in fact workable, wouldnt you think the Casino would outlaw it, before helping the punter?

Au contraire: the wheel is a mechanical device and its output is subject to the vagaries of wear and tear. It is therefore, in theory, beatable.

Personally I don't believe the system is workable, but for different reasons. The amount of patience required to personally log each wheel's output and find one with an observable bias could take months. Furthermore, once you found a wheel with an exploitable weakness, the casino itself would be sure to notice shortly thereafter, thus giving you a limited window in which to exploit the bias. The casino does not have to outlaw logging; all it has to do is maintain it's wheels. Or, similar to the practice of re-shuffling cards in blackjack, it needs only to "shuffle it's wheels" to prevent logging over consecutive days.

 

[daddy_4_eyes]

Originally posted by GFC MAD!
Put a chip on 35 of the 36 numbers.

Then you have a 35/36 chance of winning another chip, and a 1/36 chance of losing all your chips.
The only way you'll lose a chip is if the wheel lands on the only number that has no chip on it!!

I mean, if you put one chip on the board and the number comes up, you win 36 chips. So if you put 35 chips on the board, you'll have huge odds to win 36 chips - thats one extra!!

Is there a limit on how many chips you can place on the board?

If not, go to the bank, withdraws 3500, and put $100 on 35 chips - and you'll have the remarkable 35/36 chance of winning another $100!!

Actually, if your number comes up you only get 35 chips, not 36. So you would have to put chips on 34 of 36 numbers to win one chip, but you would need 34 consecutive wins before losing to ensure you come out even.

 

[GFC MAD!]

Originally posted by daddy_4_eyes


Actually, if your number comes up you only get 35 chips, not 36. So you would have to put chips on 34 of 36 numbers to win one chip, but you would need 34 consecutive wins before losing to ensure you come out even.

You do get 36 chips back dont you? 35 plus the one you already have [ie - you dont lose it].

Anyway, I also forgot about the 00 and 0.

A 34/36 chance of getting another chips are still pretty good odds, even though you'd need to have 34 consecutive wins to double your money.

 

[Pornstar]

I was betting on roulette once and this fool next to me was pointing out his half arsed theory that the numbers that were coming up on the next table would soon come up on our table. He was telling me he got kicked out of Sydney casino because he was winning too much money with this method. I was laughing at the imbicile until the lucky *&^%!# won 3 or 4 times. Go figure.

 

[Smokin]

Originally posted by Uncle Steve
Fairly obviously: If the wheel has a tilt, however slight, then the point at which the ball dops from the rim will be biased towards the high point. Other factors like warping of the wheel may introduce similar biases.

But how does that bias one colour, or number, or whatever else?

The spinning portion of the wheel is separate from where the ball is released. Regardless of any "high point", at the end of the day the slots in which the ball falls in are not stationary. It may be baised as to where it falls in relation to the stationary part of the table, but if you think a bias can be made to one number, or colour is laughable.

Sure, a "broken" or "not perfect" wheel may exist - but it wont help you with gambling on that table.

Any bias would favour odds just as much as even, or red or black etc.

If the number-wheel which spins was actually stationary - perhaps you may have an argument.

The only bias which Ive ever read which made sorta sense, but was a too far fetched to be usefull, was the erosion one on the numbers. Apparently if you look at a used table, the numbers slots often erode at different rates, and some slots are bigger than others.

As you said, the only way is with computers (which has been done) and relates to the accaleration/decaleration of the ball etc. Not realistic though, of course.

The myth of these biased wheels go back to to the 1800's - today we have come to far to even consider this a viable option. Talk of a baised wheel does one thing - sells books.

For some reason, people cant comprehend when it comes to roulette that past spins mean NOTHING.

And the perfect way to illustrate this is the fact that just about all casinos these days give you the past 20 results!

Would a casino give away anything that was remotely useful?

 

[Uncle Steve]

Originally posted by Smokin
The only bias which Ive ever read which made sorta sense, but was a too far fetched to be usefull, was the erosion one on the numbers. Apparently if you look at a used table, the numbers slots often erode at different rates, and some slots are bigger than others.

Smokin,

Just out of interest, I dug up my book to see exactly what it said on the subject. 'ere 'tis:

"There are several reasons why a roulette wheel could be flawed: chipped red or black paint on certain numbers, uneven wearing down of the metal slots between the numbers, warpage or cracks on the underside of the wheel, a rotational imbalance, and general wear and tear (on the wheel and the ball)

Specifically, warpage could cause the ball to favour a certain side of the wheel - a certain series of numbers. Chipped paint on a number can cause the ball to bounce out faster because the groove now lacks some of the porous quality that paint gives it. As for variations in the metal slots between numbers, even a slightly taller slot may stop the ball from going further. Likewise a slightly smaller one will never catch the ball."

If one accepts that wear and warpage can affect the chances of individual numbers (not just blocks of numbers), then it follows that chances of red/black even/odd or high/low may also be affected, depending on the integrated effect over all numbers. One must concede that is is at least possible for a wheel to exhibit bias on the even money bets.

The text goes on to suggest monitoring a wheel until a bias becomes prevalent. In the accompanying example, it works on a basis of 2500 observations! Now I figure that to be at least 100 hours of continuous play. And there is no guarantee that at the end of it, you will have found the wheel to be biased. One could conceivably spend months watching wheels for a bias.

So - it is theoretically possible (though not guaranteed) for a roulette wheel to be beaten, but thoroughly impractical to tackle the problem.

Incidentally I don't play roulette, and rarely go to the casino. I enjoy the analysis of the games though, as a bit of a mental diversion

 

[Asgardian]

Best tip I can give on Roulette is not to play it, or any other casino type "game"

 

[Docker_Brat]

Bias does exist on some wheels, if you're lucky enough to find such a wheel, you need to cover all the numbers in that part of the wheel.

Observing over a period of time isn't much good, I beleive many casinos move the wheels between different tables.

 

[Smokin]

Originally posted by Uncle Steve


Smokin,

Just out of interest, I dug up my book to see exactly what it said on the subject. 'ere 'tis:

"There are several reasons why a roulette wheel could be flawed: chipped red or black paint on certain numbers, uneven wearing down of the metal slots between the numbers, warpage or cracks on the underside of the wheel, a rotational imbalance, and general wear and tear (on the wheel and the ball)

Specifically, warpage could cause the ball to favour a certain side of the wheel - a certain series of numbers. Chipped paint on a number can cause the ball to bounce out faster because the groove now lacks some of the porous quality that paint gives it. As for variations in the metal slots between numbers, even a slightly taller slot may stop the ball from going further. Likewise a slightly smaller one will never catch the ball."

If one accepts that wear and warpage can affect the chances of individual numbers (not just blocks of numbers), then it follows that chances of red/black even/odd or high/low may also be affected, depending on the integrated effect over all numbers. One must concede that is is at least possible for a wheel to exhibit bias on the even money bets.

The text goes on to suggest monitoring a wheel until a bias becomes prevalent. In the accompanying example, it works on a basis of 2500 observations! Now I figure that to be at least 100 hours of continuous play. And there is no guarantee that at the end of it, you will have found the wheel to be biased. One could conceivably spend months watching wheels for a bias.

So - it is theoretically possible (though not guaranteed) for a roulette wheel to be beaten, but thoroughly impractical to tackle the problem.

Incidentally I don't play roulette, and rarely go to the casino. I enjoy the analysis of the games though, as a bit of a mental diversion

Still not 100% convinced it can really help a punter, but as you said, you need so much analysis that it is hardly realistic anyway.

Realistically, the only game that can be "beaten" is BlackJack, but as has been discussed on this thread, with the measures the casinos are taking, 50-50 is the best you will get these days against the house in oz.

I play a bit of roulette for fun - its actually a funny game to hang around.

Every second person has their "system" they swear by LMAO!

 

[AlfAndrews]

Originally posted by Docker_Brat
Bias does exist on some wheels, if you're lucky enough to find such a wheel, you need to cover all the numbers in that part of the wheel.

Observing over a period of time isn't much good, I beleive many casinos move the wheels between different tables.

That's something I wondered about. I remember reading about the biased wheel theory a few years ago. I got out my toy roulette wheel and did some experiments. (In those days I was constantly looking for a way to win at gambling ... I'm over it now, believe me)

After several hundred spins I discovered that certain numbers came up with significantly greater frequency than others. And these numbers were clustered in one particular area of the wheel.

But it was also obvious, when I spun this toy roulette wheel, that the bloody thing had a warp in it that Jack Hill the Blind Miner could have seen.

In a real casino, any mechanical imperfection would be a lot less obvious. And it would probably take tens of thousands of spins before you could actually say for sure that a bias exists.

So ... off you go to the casino ... with your note books ... for several months on end ... observing the behaviour of a particular wheel. By the time you've got it sussed, how do you know whether or not the casino has actually swapped the wheels around. And it would be well in their interests to do so in order to stuff up the biased wheel theorists.

The facts of roulette are simply this ... given a wheel that is "true", a house percentage of 2.7% exists (on the single zero wheel). It applies at all times .... whether you bet 50-50, single numbers, 2 to 1, or any combination of these.

At different times, certain trends can be observed. But they can only be observed in hindsight ... AND they can change very abruptly at any time, with no way of predicting when. Unfortunately, no casino in the world allows you to bet in "hindsight".

As for the theory that a long run of RED has to be balanced by a long run of BLACK eventually ... well ... it's true that over a very large number of spins you will get roughly the same number of RED as you will get of BLACK. But each individual spin is completely random. If there has just been a run of 10 consecutive RED, the next spin is still equally as likely to be a RED as it is to be a BLACK ... because 10 or 11 spins is only a very small number compared to the infinite number of times a wheel can be spun. Too small to be of any statistical significance ... but quite large enough to send a gambler broke if they were unlucky enough to get it wrong each time.

And "doubling up" staking systems ... or indeed any system that involves increasing your bet to win back accumulated losses is guaranteed to sent you broke as soon as you hit a long enough losing streak. And if you play long enough, the freakish losing streak will inevitably hit you. Many gamblers lose EVERYTHING ... and I mean EVERYTHING ... when this happens.

In summary ... Roulette is a MUG's game.

Don't be a MUG any more

 

[AlfAndrews]

This system NEVER fails ...

... if you don't bet, you break even.