Round 12 Trades

[Agent93]

17-19 starters pending Murray and Guelfi selection. Have a trade left and might cannibalise Murray so I can bring in someone for Brayshaw next week.

 

[the_chad]

Coffield and Murphy to Austin and Brayshaw
Will have 20 provided Neale and Guelfi play.

 

[CrozaN]

Anyone trading Dusty?

 

[Agechamp]

Each to their own, his scoring the has slowed the last 4 games thou, averaging 94.

What caused the big stop in his game ? As much as a positive it is that he scored 80+ in one half, its equally as concerning he only score 13 for the other half.

Seen in the BE thread that he looks like potentially losing money this week, I'm in a position where I don't need to trade this week, also at a stage where every dollar saved is so important, I'll be giving him another week I think.

Did you watch our game?

We couldn't get hold of the ball.

I'll be grabbing him before round 14 after hes dropped abit.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Did you watch our game?

We couldn't get hold of the ball.

I'll be grabbing him before round 14 after hes dropped abit.

Nah been flat out with work and missed most games the past few rounds, makes it a lot harder to get a decent read on him and a few others.

Still a few too many unknown for me to go this round. Im reconsidering my Brayshaw trade reading he's had calf soreness.

 

[CrozaN]

Think at this stage:

Cole ----> Austin
Barry ----> Ahern
Smith -----> Walters.

Laird/Cogs/Dusty/Ridley out.

18 on field, 1 on bench.....geez thought this round would be an easy one LOL

 

[go you pups]

Each to their own, his scoring the has slowed the last 4 games thou, averaging 94.

What caused the big stop in his game ? As much as a positive it is that he scored 80+ in one half, its equally as concerning he only score 13 for the other half.

Seen in the BE thread that he looks like potentially losing money this week, I'm in a position where I don't need to trade this week, also at a stage where every dollar saved is so important, I'll be giving him another week I think.

I'm getting him next week, that 121 BE can be held back on I feel, but he's every chance to go 130 and make cash

 

[go you pups]

Did you watch our game?

We couldn't get hold of the ball.

I'll be grabbing him before round 14 after hes dropped abit.

If he scores above 80 tonight, he'll be a safe get next week I reckon (won't lose too much more with a 96 plus 80+ in his rolling average)

 

[doona]

Changed my trades:

Cole > Crisp
Murphy > Ahern
Greene > Austin

I have $273K left for next week. I don't need to do Murphy > Ahern as I don't need cash but I am going for points and risking it.

Is Crisp better bringing in then Hibberd or McDonald?

Leaves me with 21 on the field.

Robinson, Coniglio & Dusty injured. Yeo, Mitchell & Kruezer premiums out. No emergencies and that flop Billings is my 22nd man.

 

[Bandicoot]

I already have to carry small forwards Gray AND Petracca now and I see no point of getting rid of either. One will be a lottery F6, the other F7 or M8-9. If Gray somehow gets back into midfield then he's a no brainer, although he will ski on some average teams kicking a bag of 4-5-6 as a small forward, its all about picking correctly when he fires or fizzles.

I will always back in players that I picked/brought in over rookies unless they're absolute standouts like Zorko 2012 or Witherden last year. Fritsch is a level or two below them having burnt me early in the season. I see him as a great cash cow and that is all. I only see Fritsch as a F7 in a completed side and I value Petraccas DPP to cover both forward and midfield lines over the 5-10 extra points a week that I might get from Fritsch. Fritsch for mine gets upgraded upon.

Having deep coverage will always be my preferred method of completing a team due to weeks like these when you cop 3-5 outs and are looking at donuts, DPP/coverage saves the day most of the time and you aren't eating away trades on players who may only be out for a week or two.

If I played AFL Fantasy and had the luxury of trading underperformers with the two trades you get every week then I would have earlier, alas in limited trades format that is suicidal imo.

Billings will be the first "premium" I've let go this year due to underperforming, the other premium I've traded out this season was Buddy who missed like 3 weeks and may not be a top forward now, he was replaced by McLean who likely becomes the top forward, I consider that sideways move a win.

Once I bring in Westhoff for Fritsch next week my Forwards will be McLean, Westhoff, Hogan, Devon, Heeney, then Gray/Petracca for F6-7 with a T Smith/Spargo/Crowden/Ahern type at F8.

Finishing my backline and midfield will be prioritised after that, but players like Mirra, Austin, Rice, Phillips etc still have cash to make so in due course one by one they get chopped.

R14 is looking like a great downgrade week with Ahern, T Murphy and Mihocek potentially bubble boys

Obviously I don't agree with you but that's the beauty of the competition. I do feel that once a player has caused you issues, such as Fritsch's early games, you simply turn a blind eye to everything else. Your argument about Gray and Petracca is flawed. Gray may very well spend the remainder of the season as a deep forward with an average in the 80's. In fact I feel this is more likely than him going back into the midfield scoring 100+.
I don't agree with your premise of having premium priced players ($500K+) as cover. It is an absolute waste imo. Winners of the competition in the past certainly haven't had these type of players being wasted sitting on the bench. Fritsch looks to be a perfect F7 yet if he continues to score 90+ games he will remain as my F6.
I tried to convince you 5 weeks ago to dump the totally underperforming Billings. I traded him out for Hogan. That alone has gained me 100s of points. The DPP you keep referring to as being so important with Petracca also doesn't make sense. You already have McLean in your forward line with this DPP. No doubt in a couple of weeks you will bring Ahern into your mids which will then allow you to change forwards and mids as need be. I certainly wouldn't be bringing Ahern in as a forward. How many do you need?

 

[go you pups]

Lol, miss out on Heeney and Westhoff by $700

 

[go you pups]

Changed my trades:

Cole > Crisp
Murphy > Ahern
Greene > Austin

I have $273K left for next week. I don't need to do Murphy > Ahern as I don't need cash but I am going for points and risking it.

Is Crisp better bringing in then Hibberd or McDonald?

Leaves me with 21 on the field.

Robinson, Coniglio & Dusty injured. Yeo, Mitchell & Kruezer premiums out. No emergencies and that flop Billings is my 22nd man.

Crisp is a better option than Hibberd for points onfield, feel his ceiling is better, but not sure on him vs McDonald from now til end of the year

McDonald has DPP and is alot cheaper, Crisp is sky high price, but obviously has about a month of better form than LMac

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Obviously I don't agree with you but that's the beauty of the competition. I do feel that once a player has caused you issues, such as Fritsch's early games, you simply turn a blind eye to everything else. Your argument about Gray and Petracca is flawed. Gray may very well spend the remainder of the season as a deep forward with an average in the 80's. In fact I feel this is more likely than him going back into the midfield scoring 100+.
I don't agree with your premise of having premium priced players ($500K+) as cover. It is an absolute waste imo. Winners of the competition in the past certainly haven't had these type of players being wasted sitting on the bench. Fritsch looks to be a perfect F7 yet if he continues to score 90+ games he will remain as my F6.
I tried to convince you 5 weeks ago to dump the totally underperforming Billings. I traded him out for Hogan. That alone has gained me 100s of points. The DPP you keep referring to as being so important with Petracca also doesn't make sense. You already have Heeney and McLean in your forward line with this DPP. No doubt in a couple of weeks you will bring Ahern into your mids which will then allow you to change forwards and mids as need be. I certainly wouldn't be bringing Ahern in as a forward. How many do you need?

I think this is a good point. Its great to have high quality bench cover but trading specifically to bring in a fallen premium/keeper to play on your bench is more likely to fail than succeed. There are exceptions as a premium may be priced ridiculously low - potentially after an injury affected game/s etc - and they are at such a price that they pretty much become a must have. However, i feel like even a premium of this description should at least be capable of, or better yet, predicted to, score enough to be a starter in your team. For instance, Rocky was at a ridiculously low price last week but for me i wasnt confident enough he'd be able to outscore the mids i currently have/want. So even a DT scorer of his calibre is not immune from missing the cut because despite his obvious value, i deemed he wouldn't make my starting midfield much (if any) better. Time will tell if i made a wise move or not, obviously im happy with it at the moment.

I think with trades in general you want to either be chasing points on your field or chasing value in the form of rookies and maybe cheap midpricers. Making trades just for 'insurance' for lack of a better word is in most cases inefficient. Lets say you want good bench cover, i think the first thing you should do is look for rookies that can provide that. The higher calibre the rookie, the more money they will make and the better they will provide cover. Chasing an underpriced premium to sit on your bench will probably only generate a little bit of cash if any and will not provide value compared to a rookie with solid job security and scoring ability. So yeah, i think its pretty simple really. Buy premiums because they will improve your onfield team and buy rookies to either provide temporary cover or to provide cash to upgrade your onfield team.

The type of trades i do understand are those that upgrade a rookie to a premium that plays on your field and thus relegates another premium to the bench. These trades are different to upgrading simply for bench cover. For instance, if i have enough trades i may try to upgrade Smith to a premium that will relegate Fritsch to F7 as cover. The distinction is important because i did not trade in order to increase my depth of cover, rather it was a byproduct of chasing a premium that i deem will score more (and hopefully significantly more) than Fritsch. So to reiterate, there are exceptions but generally trading specifically for cover is less efficient than trading for onfield points or value (potential points) on the bench

 

[go you pups]

Obviously I don't agree with you but that's the beauty of the competition. I do feel that once a player has caused you issues, such as Fritsch's early games, you simply turn a blind eye to everything else. Your argument about Gray and Petracca is flawed. Gray may very well spend the remainder of the season as a deep forward with an average in the 80's. In fact I feel this is more likely than him going back into the midfield scoring 100+.
I don't agree with your premise of having premium priced players ($500K+) as cover. It is an absolute waste imo. Winners of the competition in the past certainly haven't had these type of players being wasted sitting on the bench. Fritsch looks to be a perfect F7 yet if he continues to score 90+ games he will remain as my F6.
I tried to convince you 5 weeks ago to dump the totally underperforming Billings. I traded him out for Hogan. That alone has gained me 100s of points. The DPP you keep referring to as being so important with Petracca also doesn't make sense. You already have McLean in your forward line with this DPP. No doubt in a couple of weeks you will bring Ahern into your mids which will then allow you to change forwards and mids as need be. I certainly wouldn't be bringing Ahern in as a forward. How many do you need?

The winner last year held Roughy all season

To me that is a bench cover type, he only averaged like 84, he scored like 130 in the final round and may have been the difference in him winning the thing, only 2012 Zorko pumps out that score as cover.

We have stark differences in the way we play the long format of this game, but if it works then go for it.

The way you play the game is more suited for AFL Fantasy imo where you can constantly trade your way out of trouble. You've nailed some sideways trades, but how many more can you afford to do later in the season? The way you talk about Billings is if he is a 50avg player, he was averaging more than your mate Fritsch up until like last week and was averaging more than every rookie pretty much except Telly maybe?... seeing he has been dropped he is useless for the byes which is what I was holding him for due to my lack of R14 forwards, otherwise he was gone on my bye.

I don't have Heeney yet, but he's high on my radar this or next week, just trying to work out what to do that helps me both this week and next seeing maybe Laird and Mirra won't play while my forward and ruck stocks will be down to about 3-4 before trades. I'm very top heavy on R13 up forward due to the lack of rookies from other weeks available as downgrade targets (seemingly poor JS to Higgins and Ronke when they were on the bubble didn't help either), so a few will be culled next week with Fritsch touted as one who gets upgraded to a better player.

I disagree on moving on Gray after bringing him in already and getting a month of good scores from him, that to me is a burnt trade. Those types of trades you only do for injuries at this stage of the year. Holding an underperforming player but finding the upgrades to then move said underperformer into a coverage role once my team has been completed is worth it imo.

You've nailed a few sideways trades this year but how many more can you afford to do? I feel you can make these types of moves as corrections early in the year but now imo they can hinder if your team is not completed.

Also, how often do we see carnage late in the year that requires trades or coverage or both? It happens every year. I'd rather be prepared for it and not have to worry about rookies who may or may not play getting the job done.

 

[Agechamp]

If he scores above 80 tonight, he'll be a safe get next week I reckon (won't lose too much more with a 96 plus 80+ in his rolling average)

Break even of 121.

So 100 will be a nice little drop..

 

[doona]

Crisp is a better option than Hibberd for points onfield, feel his ceiling is better, but not sure on him vs McDonald from now til end of the year

McDonald has DPP and is alot cheaper, Crisp is sky high price, but obviously has about a month of better form than LMac

I’ve gone to McDonald. I had him in my team earlier in the week. Gives me $416k to play with. With the likes of Spargo, Kelly, etc...... gives me a leg up

 

[2006_Eagles]

Break even of 121.

So 100 will be a nice little drop..

 

[Agechamp]

Mind you 11 touches and a goal first quater.....

 

[go you pups]

The type of trades i do understand are those that upgrade a rookie to a premium that plays on your field and thus relegates another premium to the bench. These trades are different to upgrading simply for bench cover. For instance, if i have enough trades i may try to upgrade Smith to a premium that will relegate Fritsch to F7 as cover. The distinction is important because i did not trade in order to increase my depth of cover, rather it was a byproduct of chasing a premium that i deem will score more (and hopefully significantly more) than Fritsch. So to reiterate, there are exceptions but generally trading specifically for cover is less efficient than trading for onfield points or value (potential points) on the bench

This is one of my methods that I attempt to get cover though and is what I'd like to do with Parker if I have the trades and kind of what I'm doing with Gray and Petracca by bringing in Heeney and Westhoff, but I'll have to play one at F6

Ways we get cover

Good midpricers popping up at the right time midseason: examples Stef and Miles 2014, McKernan 2015, Clay Smith 2016, Josh Thomas last year. Hartlett was midpriced when I got him last year and this was my intention using him for M9-D7 but I got him in before I had completed my side as I thought he wouldn't get cheaper which I copped criticism from everyone. After initial teething problems he was very useful and ended up outscoring the likes of Hodge and Tuohy the last few weeks of the year. Had to field him half the time after I got him in due to Jelwood and a few others getting concussed/injured/suspended.

Underperforming premiums relegated to the bench once team is completed. I have always done this over the years and this relates to your example above. My best ever year in 2014 I did this with Ebert and Wingard who were putrid midseason and Nathan Jones and Zorko were brought in on the cheap to relegate them to the bench, but I had to field them a lot the last 3 weeks due to carnage, Wingard pulled his finger out in this period. I played Stef in the ruck during this time as Sandi missed a few games and wasn't scoring as well as he started that year, so he became R3. That year we had extremely early byes which helped me significantly towards completing my side early, though my backline was a bit mediocre come season end. Came 31st though as I dodged the round 21-22 carnage and capitalised after hovering around 75-130 for 2 months.

Gun rookie pops up midseason: hopefully this is Ahern this year. Examples, Sam Gibson and Zorko 2012, Witherden 2017. Luke Ryan was solid for a few weeks last year then became a complete liability (his total stinker against Sydney for example). I really can't remember too many to be honest though. Most rookies seem to start slowly then come good as the year goes on, like Stewart last year.

Anyways

Just waiting on these R14 rookies in my backline and midfield to moo then I can complete my midfield and defence, my team is a bit lopsided at the moment, but it's the way the rookies and bye rounds have fallen.

 

[go you pups]

I’ve gone to McDonald. I had him in my team earlier in the week. Gives me $416k to play with. With the likes of Spargo, Kelly, etc...... gives me a leg up

Mind you 11 touches and a goal first quater.....

After trying many combinations to bring in Heeney and Westhoff, I've decided to dump Tim Smith instead of Barry to make it happen

The main con in dumping Smith far too early was the cash generation that I may not get, thus not getting initial value for money on the trade

However, I felt the pros outweighed the cons

It significantly helps my diabolical forward/ruck structure for next week and will force me to bring in either a playing premium defender or midfielder next week which I will need via Coffield/Petracca DPP.

More points onfield in R12-13

Instead of cashing in on both Fritsch and Spargo next week, then banking on Smith coming back, the one with the likelihood of more cash generation will be kept until R15-16, then upgraded.

Also gives me another week to see if Crowden and Barry play next week (Crowden isn't that much if a liability for me now as I can hold him off field in R14), and lets me look at whether Jones or Apeness are options next week, Jones for R3 would be handy if he gets a few more games, though would have to ask the Freo board about them.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Always like reading your input Pups, its very Ying-Yang the way we approach the game, alway good discussion.

Just going over your last few posts (don't really want to quote everything).

Comparing holding Billings this year with the winner holding Roughy last year. Not the best comparison IMO, Roughy was a midpricer, wouldnt have been leaking the cash Billing has. The writing was on the wall early with Billings, poor pre-season games that followed into the year, only score well against us. If you were able to identify that earlier (I know it could have easily back fired) then sideways him to a Mclean/Westhoff you'd be a heap of points better off and chasing one less premium now. Ultimately spending one trade early saves you trades later.

That principal still stands this late in the year, I'm in a similar situation with Parker now. I could hold him and try to move him to M9, but that will take a lot of effort to upgrade say a Phillips to a Wines. If I hit the sideways trade now, I'm better off overall collecting more points, I could also look for value at M9, ultimately having similar coverage for the same trade cost.

You bring up identifying potentially underpriced players at this stage of the year, this is where I need to improve. Last year you suggested to me bringing Zorko in instead of Rockliff, I ultimately went with Rocky at the higher price. I missed out on 75k I could have spent elsewhere and some decent amount of points, probably cost me finishing top 50. I normally go all out and just buy one of the highest price payer, this time I'm looking at players like Hurley, Cripps, Westhoff etc then going out and getting Crisp, Macrae, Curnow and Mclean (think I'll end up with the bulldog boys just might wait a little).

 

[go you pups]

Always like reading your input Pups, its very Ying-Yang the way we approach the game, alway good discussion.

Just going over your last few posts (don't really want to quote everything).

Comparing holding Billings this year with the winner holding Roughy last year. Not the best comparison IMO, Roughy was a midpricer, wouldnt have been leaking the cash Billing has.

True, but as I said before Rough should have been a coverage type having not been a top forward last year with a mid 80s average. You either upgrade him in the first half of the year or on his bye, or hold as coverage, seems the winner held as coverage.

It was always down to Billings vs Petracca for me as a hold as coverage as I started with both and it would've been a massive waste of trades had I turfed both having already made a heap of forward trades already this year (full list in the discussion thread)

Petracca wins due to better JS, recent form and DPP, though I would've held Billings til his bye then upgraded him then had he kept playing as I was light on R14 up forward and heavy on R13. As I have a fairly even spread in midfield over the byes, excess R13ers sit on that line as I only have Zorko and Zerrett from that week.

The writing was on the wall early with Billings, poor pre-season games that followed into the year, only score well against us. If you were able to identify that earlier (I know it could have easily back fired) then sideways him to a Mclean/Westhoff you'd be a heap of points better off and chasing one less premium now. Ultimately spending one trade early saves you trades later.

Disagree, the first 5 rounds he was doing just enough having scored 3 times over 80 with another in the 70s and averaging 84.

Sure he was a little down then, but I was expecting him to come good, like Menegola had done after a rocky start.

Come round 6 I had Buddy and Petracca out injured and I decided to move on Buddy for McLean as I thought Buddy would be out for 3-4 weeks which for me is too long, which ended up being 3-4. My brilliant Tim English to the forwards move was made that week too in order to try and gain more points onfield having tonned up on Sandi the week beforehand, absolute bust that was, so he needed moving on once that ton fell out of his rolling average, I prioritised moving him on instead.

Zorko and Zerrett were doing my head in also then as well so I wanted scoring firepower so I brought in Macrae and Gibbs in R7-8 to beef my midfield up.

By then Billings was in freefall and I felt it was pointless to move him on as he had still been outscoring most rookies and had lost that cash. So felt get rid of him during the byes and just upgrade around him which I have done.

That principal still stands this late in the year, I'm in a similar situation with Parker now. I could hold him and try to move him to M9, but that will take a lot of effort to upgrade say a Phillips to a Wines. If I hit the sideways trade now, I'm better off overall collecting more points, I could also look for value at M9, ultimately having similar coverage for the same trade cost.

This year I've screwed up bigtime on starting selection and rookie downgrade options, could spend an hour listing my regrets

Would love to grab an upgrade on Parker and push him down to M9, but I'll probably be left on 2 trades by then, so I'll probably trade down to 3-5 and make sure I have DPP covering the main 3 lines (dunno WTF to do about R3 as I didn't grab McInerney when I had the chance to when pushing English forward (absolute howler)

So Parker at M8 looks likely for me at the moment unless Austin somehow keeps pumping out the points and becomes solid back coverage

You bring up identifying potentially underpriced players at this stage of the year, this is where I need to improve. Last year you suggested to me bringing Zorko in instead of Rockliff, I ultimately went with Rocky at the higher price. I missed out on 75k I could have spent elsewhere and some decent amount of points, probably cost me finishing top 50. I normally go all out and just buy one of the highest price payer, this time I'm looking at players like Hurley, Cripps, Westhoff etc then going out and getting Crisp, Macrae, Curnow and Mclean (think I'll end up with the bulldog boys just might wait a little).

I've only traded in 2 premiums above 650k this year, Macrae at 775k before the Gold Coast game and Gibbs at 680k before the Showdown.

The last midfielder I bring in will likely be expensive, just depends on these rookies really when to pull the trigger as in my setup Fritsch, Spargo, Barry and Phillips will all be expendable, while I might cull all of Mirra, Austin, Coffield and Rice too, though one might be a D8.

Every other premium has been brought in at under 640k with Howe at 634k 2 weeks ago as my third most expensive trade in and that was a straight up bust with a 57 then a donut, if I brought in Crisp instead at 610k I'd be laughing and like 150+ points and 24k better off.

Anyways