Where:
The Gabba, Brisbane
When:
Saturday, 3.40pm (Brisbane time)
Ticket info:
Ticket info
TV and Radio Coverage:
QLD - 3.30pm 7mate and FoxFooty
Vic - 4.30pm FoxFooty
WA - 1.30 FoxFooty
SA - 4pm 7 and FoxFooty
NSW - 4.30pm FoxFooty
Tas - 4.30pm FoxFooty
NT - 3pm FoxFooty
Last time they met:
Brisbane 13.17 (95) defeated Adelaide 12.13 (85)
Weather:
Cloudy, a few showers
Odds:
Brisbane : 2.10
Adxelaide: 1.68
Preview by Haso
What the hell happened?!
It's difficult to know what to take from the loss to the Bulldogs. The Dogs came out hungry and played to their potential for aggression, skill, and pressure, while the Lions did none of that. The Dogs did their homework, and the Lions didn't pay attention to theirs. The Lions couldn't get their overlap and handball game going, and there was no backup plan. No clearances, no run, no accuracy.
No attitude.
This is so far removed from what we saw in the final rounds of 2012 and across the preseason that something must have been off. Brownie mentioned that the boys were flat at training all through the previous week. Rocky said that the boys do not appear to be mature and ready enough for sustained success at AFL level yet. Strong words from the captain and vice-captain.
The switch wasn't flicked.
The boys deserve a massive kick up the arse for that one. Vossy would have been piiiiiiiiiissed.
But anyway, onward and upward. It's nice to say something like 'let's put that loss behind us', but I don't think that will help. That loss needs to be remembered. That loss needs to spur the boys on this week on the track. It needs to spur them on at the opening bounce on Saturday. It needs tp keep them going when Adelaide come at them. It needs to keep them going in the final quarter.
Onward and upward. They have the power.
This week: Adelaide
Both the Lions and the Crows have just come off a loss to a team that they were probably expecting to beat. Both will be pretty keen to make up for their poor starts with expectations of doing well this year.
The Crows are coming off of a preliminary final berth, coming THAT close to a Grand Final. They have emerging stars in their young group, and steady mature hands and heads guiding them. The Lions have form at home, notably against the Crows late last year. The Lions have won 2 of the last 3 encounters, and could have won 3 out of 3 if it weren't for the Lions tired legs and a spectacular quarter from Graham Johncock. They've since lost one of their twin towers in Tippett, and Walker perhaps couldn't quite shoulder the full load himself last week.
It will be an interesting game to say the least.
So how is it going to play out?
In the middle
Jacobs will dominate in the ruck. He will come up against either Billy or a rusty Leuey, and both he should beat to the tap most of the time. If Billy is selected as first ruck he will need to show some more of that work below the knees and second effort that he has shown recently. I think we can thank Huddo for that facet of Billy's developing game. If Leuey is selected, he is going to need to present options around the ground and show those gazelle-like qualities that we know he has.
Dangerfield and Thompson will need looking after. It's hard to see wholesale changes to the side, given that the one that fronted up against the Dogs was perhaps our strongest available, but it's hard not to see Rainsey getting a run to make Danger's life difficult all afternoon. I can perhaps see Beamsy getting a run straight from the get-go to keep a sharp eye on Thompson, and Polks getting the green vest, or maybe missing out alltogether. It's very hard to tell with Polks though if history is any indication.
Moloney, Rich, Redden and Rocky will be the prime movers. If Rich is given space he will provide a handy weapon, and you know he will be dirty about how easily he was taken out of the game last week. Rocky can be happy that he was able to find the ball against the flow last week, but he will need to continue that work. Reddo and his apparent quietness has been spoken about already, but he did tackle well last week, and I can see him running up against Sloane this week and perhaps limiting his effectiveness (and maybe even putting the hurt on a little).
All in all I thought Moloney did well and battled all day on Saturday, but was given little support. If Beams doesn't do the run-with job, I can see Moloney running head to head with Thompson.
One thing's for sure though, they have GOT to win more clearances than last week. This will require far more intensity at the ball. I reckon there will be a bit of that at training this week. This is where our Patty Ks and our Riches can then come in and do their thang.
Down back
This is been our best area of the ground for at least 2 years now, and it was hard to watch them struggle agaist the mediums and smalls last week. I think they will bounce back from that effort. Merrett took Tippett last year and the year before and wiped the floor with him. Tex is a different and more skilled beast, but Merrett will get the job. Tex is strong in the air, on the lead and can kick, so Sauce will need to be on his game, but I think he is up to the challenge.
Patfull gives away a lot of height on Jenkins, but performed admirably on him in Round 21 last year, so I can see him going on him again this year. This would ordinarily be Maguire's job, but he was injured last year and it seems as though he will be injured this year. It would be great to see Clarke come in to replace him, but I think he would be more suited to a third tall or medium, given his developing body. If Lester comes in instead of Clarke, the same goes for him. This will also make the back line a bit more mobile and less stodgy, as has been mentioned by a couple of posters in the past.
Johncock has traditionally done quite well against us, and will need a leash on him. He might be a bit too wiley for Golby, who's strengths seem to lie in rebounding and attacking, so maybe Yeo is the man as he has shown a bit more defensive aptitude in his short time than Golby. Given the fact that Hanley may be suspended (at the time of writing), Ash may be pushed back to pick up Johncock while Golby and Yeo take the half back roles.
I don't think too much needs to change for this group apart from the forced outs. Concentrating on the smalls as well as the talls is the way to go, and they have done that well in the past. Adelaide are not going to bomb it long to our talls, because that would be silly with the Rusty Fist patrolling the defensive line with athleticism and aggression. They will drop their eyes and look for a target. They need to play their man and watch for it.
With Hanley probably out, Adcock will be our main man driving out through half back. We may get some overlap and creativity with Karnezis on the wing as well, but Golby and Yeo, if retained, will need to shine in this regard as well. Hanley is a vital cog and it will be all hands on deck to make up for his absence.
Could we see Doc make his debut here? Maybe. We have not been great at predicting debut weeks in the past. I think Doc and Bartlett were both in line for debuts every week through the 2012 season according to us.
Up forward
These guys didn't get much of a look in last week with limited forward entries and very poor delivery when it did come. The forward pressure that the Lions showed during the preseason was non-existent, however.
Brownie had a shocker, and wasn't helped by the delivery. He should be picked up by Rutten who has had Brownie's measure for quite a while now. Other forward options will need to be considered for this match.
I imagine that Talia will go to our rotating ruck and ruck/forward. If that is Martin again, he will need to stay mobile and use those freaky athletic attributes to run him off his feet. If it is Lisle, he will need to get his aggression up again and use his marking prowess. Lisle was easily accounted for by Thompson last year through strength, body positioning and timing. Lisle has apparently worked on this over the break and is leaner but strong. We will have to see what he can do if selected. It's hard to see Longer occupying this position if Leuey comes back on, but his strength and positioning was looking alright lasy week. Unfortunately he was severely outmuscled and out-experienced by a Minson who had his best game in Dogs colours by a mile. Billy may do a bit better against Talia, but at the moment he is definitely more of a ruck than a forward. My money is on Stef keeping his spot.
Greenie, Zorko, and the goal-kicking mid/HFs in Rich, Rocky and Beams will be our key to victory in my opinion. If they can get off the leash while being defensively accountable, I think they will be where our scoreboard damage comes from.
So what needs to happen?
Our half back line has been brilliant all preseason, and towards the end of last year, at applying pressure to the short options and either winning the ball back or forcing the ball to be sent long, where our Merretts and Patfulls bring it to ground and our pockets mop up, and away we go. We can't continue to rely on them though. It's unfair, and they can't do it every week. We need to prevent those entries in the first place, which means we need first hands on the ball out of the middle.
Our midfield were brilliant on the inside against Carlton. First in, first extraction, and pulled the celebrated Carlton midfield's pants down. Without winning the tap, Moloney, Redden, Rocky and Beams will need to pump right the hell up and get angry. With Dangerfield hopefully quelled by Raines we are in for a shot, but they need to be switched on and in front of their man from the get go. Then players like Rich, Karny and maybe Beams and Adcock can send the ball in effectively, which is the next key.
Forward entries need to be on target, and our forwards need to be on the move. It caused all sorts of headaches for opposition defenders last year when our roaming ruck forward and Bewick ran around creating space and targets, while Green and Zorko mopped up and created a pressure cooker. We need to see this again.
This all sounds very obvious, but simply put none of it happened last week. Everything that could have gone wrong, on every line, did.
My prediction
Lions by 5. Both teams will be very keen to bounce back and will probably set fire to the track this week, but the Lions have form at the Gabba and have a tendency to just keep coming at that ground. I think that our defense can win the battle, and while Hanley is a big out coming off the half back line I think he can be covered. In any case, given the desperation of both of these teams to not go 0-2, it will be a very tight game.
None of Brisbane's lines fired last week, and if even one of them does, we might see some footy worth looking at. And in the immortal words of Yazz:
