Round 23

[Ferris_rules]

Go Saints.

Milne continues his unbelievable FGS record.

lol - Good call - But chasing loses is not recommended.

A little nervous when the Roos lead by 20 pts !

Saints winning easily surprised me, I was going to be on either team under 24.5 pts

What was Milne paying ????

 

[Thedeftouch]

Great value here:

Lions v Eagles: top goalscorer "any other player" @ 11 on Centrebet.

They don't have Cornelius listed, Brisbane's best goalscorer at the moment (listed at 8s on Sportsbet). You also get all the midfielders, late inclusions etc.

This one was fun, was even better spot with the rain. Anyone tail me? Sadly I only bet $150 on this one

A great day of results. One of the few bad spots was getting Milne'd on FGS yet again... pretty sure I am -10K on laying Milne this year. Will i ever learn???? Honestly he must have binked about 40% this year

 

[somethingrandom]

This one was fun, was even better spot with the rain. Anyone tail me? Sadly I only bet $150 on this one

A great day of results. One of the few bad spots was getting Milne'd on FGS yet again... pretty sure I am -10K on laying Milne this year. Will i ever learn???? Honestly he must have binked about 40% this year

Took in a multi with Nick Riewoldt most goals and the wallabies
nice find, thanks

 

[Vince Masuka]

Melb/Gold Coast u205.5
9 units @ 1.90 (Bet365)

Sloane over Martin Disposals
10 units @ 2.00 (Centrebet)

Sloane Most Disposals Gp 1
1.5 units @ 21.00 (Iasbet)

Stanton Most Disposals Gp 1
6 units @ 3.15 (Iasbet)

That is a high game total for a game which I see as a close scrap.

I am a big wrap for young Sloane. I don't see Thompson dominating again, as I can see Richmond really focusing on him. Maybe even Deledio onto him. I rarely bet on these markets, but loved those odds 21.00. H2H with Martin I also liked.

Stanton really only seems to have opposition from Watson, and he might even get sub vest if there are no injuries and Port are getting flogged. In any case if Port tag someone, it is Watson they will tag.

 

[TurboBreuster]

Going big on the Saints game under last night has been the difference for this round so far. I like a couple of your plays Vince:

3U MEL/GCS <205.5 (B365)
1.5U Sloane >posseions Martin @2 (Centrebet)
4U DBL MEL/ESS Goals>Behinds @1.75 (Centrebet)
2U Adel -4.5 1Q @1.92 (Sportsbet)

MGS
0.15U Vickery @26 (Sportingbet) Lenny tail.
0.6U T.Walker @4.25 (Sportingbet)
0.65U Green @4.25 (Sportinbet)

FGS
0.25U Walker @10 (B365)
0.1U King @17
0.08U Martin @29
0.1U Brennan @26 (TAB)
0.1U G.Ablett @21 (Sportsbet)
0.2U Green @13 (Sportingbet)

 

[Ferris_rules]

Its a beautiful day in Adelaide, I do like the Crows at the line -19.5 today.

If you want a little safety taking them over 15.5 is better.

I think it should be high scoring and if the Crows line fires they should cover the margin easily.

They recently pushed the Cats to a couple of kicks.

Crows at 40+ @ $3

 

[IDIG]

Not really feeling any of the spreads so a couple of small plays to keep it interesting.

Green MG @ 3
Moloney MP @ 7.50
Jobe MP @ 2.50
Thompson MP @ 2

 

[denitofinito]

2u @ 1.92 Essendon -16.5 qtr time line.

Essendon love Etihad and Port have lost their last six 1st quarters by big big margins.

 

[baywatch5]

SUNDAY

1ST Q - CROWS -4.5 (x4)
ATS - CROWS -19.5 (x2)

 

[Moses01]

$8.50

I usually only take players who are $20+ for FGS but I recon I'll keep taking Milne until he's <$5.

It's incredible how often he kicks the first goal.

Milne FGS/Saints 25+ was paying $26 on SB, and Milne FGS/Saints 1-24 was $29.

I've found this market a pretty good one for playing your 'usual suspects' with the expected outcome.

 

[doddy87]

Sportingbet dream team

Ablett to beat trengove and molony paying 2.20 looks value
Bock over martin 1.95

Multi
Adel match score over 190.5
Melb match score over 199.6
paying 3.60

 

[Barnzy]

Adelaide vs Richmond - Most Disposals Group A

0.5 units Shane Tuck @ $10
0.5 units Van Berlo @ $11

Thompson will get tagged. Probably won't stop him but these 2 are capable of racking up 30+ touches. Good value IMO.

Adelaide vs Richmond - Most Goals

1 unit Kurt Tippett @ 3.75.

Just small bets. Line is too risky I reckon. We can win or get blown out here. Will survey other games for today.

 

[TurboBreuster]

Adding:
5U ESS 1H -34.5 @1.9 (Sportingbet)
Some of the sting has gone out of this game with the Bombers now assured of 8th spot. However I have seen Ports last 3 terrible first halfs with their game against the Hawks been live. They are a joke of a football club and I have never time and time again seen a whole team standing still when they are attempting to bring the ball out of defence. There would also have to be numerous Bombers players that are playing for a spot in the finals. This could be Essendon V GC v2.

MGS
0.4U Reimers @7.5 (Centrebet)

2U MEL -44.5 @2.02 (Pinnacle)

2U RICH +4.5 4th Q @1.9 (Centrebet)

 

[TurboBreuster]

Cale Morton first goal @ 51.

Howe most goals @ 15.

Howe is sub.

 

[TurboBreuster]

I would not think so, but I'm not sure.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Its a beautiful day in Adelaide, I do like the Crows at the line -19.5 today.

If you want a little safety taking them over 15.5 is better.

I think it should be high scoring and if the Crows line fires they should cover the margin easily.

They recently pushed the Cats to a couple of kicks.

Crows at 40+ @ $3

Massive Choke, Im sorry.

 

[Lensen]

****ing jack gunston

 

[Moses01]

****ing jack gunston

concur

 

[Barnzy]

Van Berlo just sneaks over the line with most disposals @ 11.

 

[doddy87]

concur

I tailed that bet aswell! ***** Gunston last 5 mins

 

[Barnzy]

Good week so far.

1.5 units units Ryder more DT points than Hille and Westhoff @ 2.25 (Ryder last 3 weeks 116, 125, 96). Sportingbet.

 

[JuddyBuddy]

Knew i shouldnt have bet against richmond when they were playing for 9th

 

[Vince Masuka]

Go and get ****ed Essendon!!!

 

[Ferris_rules]

I'm just gonna pretend this round never happened.

What hurts me more is that I had a chance to hedge my bets early in the 4th Tigers were paying $2????

And I could have walked away with a profit this weekend.....

 

[Lensen]

Jesus.

Made a moderate profit - but what could've been. Half a unit on Port at >$17 and Vickery at $26 - they get up and its the best weekend of all time.

Sigh.