Round Round 4 Matchday Discussion

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gutsroy

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May 12, 2013
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We all make choices, but in the end, our choices make us.

Whether you’ve ridden roughshod over the numpties on your way to sitting pretty, firmly ensconced inside the top 1-2k at the end of round 3, convinced you have a mortgage on the SC cheat code….
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Or you’ve gotten off to a bad start, belted from pillar to post by the Rowell / Caldwell injuries or having pulled the wrong rein in rookie roulette… which has meant swings of up to 80+ points per player given some of the outrageous high scores (Gulden and Rowe week 1) or really costly low ones (Kosi / Brockman types this week just past)…

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You’ve made choices which have gotten you here, you’ll be making plenty more in the weeks to come.

There’s a couple of things you can ponder as you plot out your next moves. It’s better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret. That’s the funny thing about regrets … you don’t know you’re going to have them until afterwards. When you're all alone in the No Trades Club waiting for the others to trickle in, sipping away at a lukewarm XXXX and thinking what might have been.

Don’t trade too aggressively early… unless…

It’s true, you shouldn’t burn trades for the sake of it.

But particularly if you’re focused on overall, now is often exactly the time to trade more aggressively if you’ve recognized a deficiency in your side which you can take care of before upgrade season. Tom Phillips, Paddy Dow, Lachie Neale, Josh Kelly – there can be viable trades involving these types

Maybe you are worried by Josh Kelly’s role and output and you’re a premo short down back, so you decide to rebalance and have one less rookie score on-field in your backline. (I'm not advocating for it, it's an example.)

Any and all of these types of trade can work out and they can make a difference of hundreds of points in your bottom line when they do. It’s more a question of the probability of success.

In general, it makes sense to sit on your hands a bit unless forced for 2-4 rounds and allow your cash generators to appreciate, but there are no prizes for ignoring an already identified Achilles Heel in your core just to be able to pat yourself on the back for your discipline in not trading.

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Don’t sideways a premo you want to bring back in, it’ll cost you two trades… except …
… well, except that it doesn’t.

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One Scenario
You start off with Lachie Neale. You don’t have Macrae. You use a trade to go from Neale to Macrae.
Later on, Neale has stabilized in output and bottoms out in price (sub 600k seems almost certain).
You do the standard one down, one up to grab him. Total trades:3.

Alternative scenario:
You start off with Lachie Neale. You don’t have Macrae. You stick fat with Neale.
You do the standard one down, one up to grab Macrae. Total trades:2.
In both scenarios, you end up with Neale and Macrae.
The difference (ignoring cash angle for a minute, although it’s part of the reason why you’d look at doing this in many cases) is one trade, not two.

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I just can’t see <insert premo with slow start here > turning it around…
Your premo has underperformed in rds 1 – 3, you’ve got to cut the cord… except that’s not really true. A premo’s performance over the first 2-3 rds is not a reliable indicator for their full year output. I could post graphics which show it, but there's a million of those alread out there.

All players have fluctuation in their scoring. Sometimes, you get lucky and you have a Ridley who gets off to a flyer, other times you might have a Neale who has underperformed expectations.

But what you often see is that over the course of the rest of the year, players tend to gravitate toward less extreme values. Is this year really so different for Dustin Martin that you have to move heaven and earth to get him in? Maybe, that’s for you to decide, but it’s got to be based on what you think he’ll do over the rounds to come – his average to date is meaningless, it’s his average year to go you’re buying.
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If you are looking to sideways, it shouldn’t be because of temporary fluctuations, it should be because of sustainable differences (e.g. a DEF eligible having a mortgage on kick-ins with a high play-on rate).

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The Ghost of Reltons Past:
Going early on rookies is sometimes needed. Sometimes you need to go down to a rookie (e.g. a Waterman) from an underperforming midpriced option (maybe you’re no longer convinced of Fantasia) in order to allow you to go up from a Hunter Clark to a Ridley down back.

I’m not here to talk anyone out of anything on that front. But in cases like a Chris Burgess (who may or may not have a nice ruck niche for a few weeks) or a Waterman who got amongst it in a flogging, always try to make your decision based on as much information as possible.

If you have the flexibility, wait and see this week. Maybe Caleb Graham takes on the majority of the ruck duties and Burgess only pinch hits, maybe Waterman does a Rowe and pumps out a 20. More information is always good, so try before you buy if at all possible.

It’s a question of timing…
This will sound trivial, but another thing to factor in is when you need to pull the trigger.

If you’re looking at a Heath Chapman and you have Koschitzke as your likely tradeout, you don’t need to execute that trade before Sunday. So be clear on the players involved in your planned trades, when they lock out (and don’t forget any players with DPP you’ll be using to facilitate it, if applicable – nothing more frustrating than finding that you can’t execute your trade because of that stuff.

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It’s not over till the fat lady sings…

We’ve all had good starts to the year, we’ve all gotten off to poor ones.

If you’ve been hit by injuries and had some significant problem children, you realistically could already be out of contention for overall. But it doesn’t mean you can’t salvage a respectable position or that you’ve got nothing left to play for.

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One year I was ranked outside 50k after round 3 and ended up coming back into to just outside 2k by the end of the year. That’s still not necessarily great shakes and the topliners still gapped me comfortably, the horse had bolted there. But it shows that you can make up early deficits and finish off a season semi-respectably if you plug away. and others will have much more impressive comebacks than that on the books.

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JuddgementDay

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 10, 2010
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I'm ready to rock and roll with this round.

I've finally got rid of the sh*t stain - Dow and replaced him with the new ultimate gull Ridley.
Whacked the VC on him too :D

Time for my team to put in a decent score this week, I don't want to let ROObies BOObies league nor BF Division 11 down



Oh as for predictions for this week:
  • More up and down with the rookies scores (GL with your rookie lotto)
  • Unpleasant carnage, but more injuries to relevant SC players (injuries just seems to be higher this year, it's bound to hit SC relevant players)
  • Ziebell, Tex and Impey to go on their merry ways
  • MPM teams to have a good week :p looking at you DeGoey, LDU, Heeney, Greene and even Clark
 
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pincrusher

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Jul 14, 2010
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I'm ready to rock and roll with this round.

I've finally got rid of the sh*t stain - Dow and replaced him with the new ultimate gull Ridley.
Whacked the VC on him too :D

Time for my team to put in a decent score this week, I don't want to let ROObies BOObies league nor BF Division 11 down



Oh as for predictions for this week:
  • More up and down with the rookies scores (GL with your rookie lotto)
  • Unpleasant carnage, but more injuries to relevant SC players (injuries just seems to be higher this year, it's bound to hit SC relevant players)
  • Ziebell, Tex and Impey to go on their merry ways
  • MPM teams to have a good week :p looking at you DeGoey, LDU, Heeney, Greene and even Clark
Same trade. Dow> Ridley. Also considering Ridley for the VC. Not sure I'll have any loop options when Grundy and Gawn play.
 

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Silky23

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Feb 2, 2020
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Steven May has only had 13 kick outs all year. BECAUSE TEAMS HAVE KICKED 11.2, 11.7 and 8.10 against them. And on the weekend when the Giants happened to kick their second point, MAY WAS ON THE BENCH DESPITE PLAYING 95% TOG LIKE WTF TYPE OF LUCK IS THAT

Meanwhile Ridller has taken 30 kick outs the cheeky seagull.

Geelong to kick 15 points and May to go 150 this week, I’m calling it :moustache:
 
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TheRednWhite

Cursed Man
Jan 27, 2017
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Another hellish week coming up for me...

Another week of Daniel dying in the face after a good start and refusing to ton up.
Another week of Jordan Clark running away from the ball
Another week of JDG being a potato

At least I have the Big Texan to get me through the week
 

Maybe Tomorrow

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Dec 7, 2019
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Another hellish week coming up for me...

Another week of Daniel dying in the face after a good start and refusing to ton up.
Another week of Jordan Clark running away from the ball
Another week of JDG being a potato

At least I have the Big Texan to get me through the week
North to shut down big Tex and he scores 30 :moustache:
 

Petrify

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Mar 1, 2021
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Most relevant change for Essendon is going to be Heppell in, probably for Redman if his hammy isn't okay. Otherwise I wouldn't expect any carnage from a SC perspective.
 

WaynesWorld19

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Most relevant change for Essendon is going to be Heppell in, probably for Redman if his hammy isn't okay. Otherwise I wouldn't expect any carnage from a SC perspective.
And what do you call McGrath's efforts last week ......any chance he can get out of "stroll" mode and maybe kick the ball
 
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