Preview Round 8: Adelaide vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Sunday 26/07/2020, 1:05 PM AEST

[eth-dog]

Observations

Adelaide: The Crows were in with a chance at 3 quarter time, only behind by 16 and kicked 2 of the first 3 goals but St. Kilda kicked 3 of the last 4 goals to win the game by 23 points. Ben Keays was a feature, collecting 24 disposals and 7 clearances, whilst Taylor Walker returned to form with 3 games.

Essendon: Essendon had a shocking loss at the hands of their bogey side Western Bulldogs, losing by 7 goals. Jayden Laverde had a good game, kicking 2 goals up front, whilst Adam Saad was effective off half back, having 23 touches, 3 rebound 50's and 7 intercept possessions.


Head to Head (last 5)

Adelaide 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Adelaide: 0W 4L
Essendon: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds (currently unavailable)

Adelaide: $2.77
Essendon: $1.44
Line: 13.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Adelaide vs Essendon

B: Mason Redman - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tyson Stengle - Fischer McAsey - Shane McAdam
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Tom Lynch - Taylor Walker - Ned McHenry
C: Kyle Langford - Zach Merrett - Brayden Ham
C: Brodie Smith - Ben Keays - Paul Seedsman
HF: Conor McKenna - James Stewart - David Zaharakis
HB: Will Hamill - Daniel Talia - Rory Laird
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
B: Tom Doedee - Kyle Hartigan - Luke Brown
R: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Mitchell Hibberd
R: Riley O'Brien - Brad Crouch - Matt Crouch
I: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Aaron Francis - Will Snelling
I: Jake Kelly - Andrew McPherson - Chayce Jones - Bryce Gibbs

Adelaide in: Paul Seedsman/Bryce Gibbs; Out: David Mackay
Essendon in: Sam Draper, James Stewart, Aaron Francis, Martin Gleeson; Out: Shaun McKernan, Jacob Townsend, Ned Cahill, Andrew Phillips


Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Adelaide have conceded a goal 22.1% of the time it enters their forward 50, which is around the AFL average. Shaun McKernan will lead the Dons in attack, likely to be against good friend Daniel Talia, who is still one of the best stoppers in the AFL, whilst James Stewart is a possible returnee as well, having not played at AFL level for over two years, likely against veteran defender Kyle Hartigan. Jacob Townsend is the third "tall" for Essendon, and has fond memories of Adelaide, Tom Doedee looks like he'll take him as well as trying to support Talia or Hartigan in the air. The real worry for the Crows however is likely to be small Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, having a good record against the Cows over the past 3 games against them.


Midfield/rucks battle

Adelaide have been bullied around the ball this year, being 17th and 18th for contested possession and clearance differential respectively, whilst the Bombers have been mid table in these departments, in 12th and 10th respectively. Essendon will be looking to dominate this area of the ground for once, with their inside brigade of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Devon Smith, Zach Merrett and Mitchell Hibberd likely to share the load that has been lost to Dylan Shiel's suspension and captain Dyson Heppell's injury. Adelaide will be looking to the Crouch brothers, Matt and Brad and young Tasmian Chayce Jones to inspire them on the inside, whilst Ben Keays has been effective as a tagger this year, expect him to go to Zach Merrett in order to quell his influence. On the outside, Brodie Smith has been one of the Crows best this season but the Bombers will hold an advantage here with Kyle Langford, Brayden Ham and Will Snelling playing well on the outside. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only two practice matches, he'll be up against Riley O'Brien has been one of the best in the AFL so far this season.


Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Adelaide has kicked a goal 18.3% of the time they enter forward 50, 18th in the AFL. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 18.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 3rd in the AFL. Adelaide have shifted promising young key defender Fischer McAsey forward, who will likely get attention from the extremely experienced Cale Hooker, whilst veterans Taylor Walker and Michael Hurley will renew acquaintances, the pair having played on each other more or less every time the two sides have met since Hurley shifted into defence. Impressive medium defender Jordan Ridley is the logical match up for Tom Lynch, who will also be trying to shift off and support the two talls, and finally Adam Saad will try to quell the influence of Shane McAdam, an impressive mature age small forward after dominating the SANFL in 2018.


X-Factor Player

Ned McHenry looks good. No, scrap that, he looks really really good. One of the few shining lights for Adelaide so far this season, McHenry looks like he'll be a long term outside midfielder for the Crows if he gets it together.


Key stat

Adelaide: Offensive conversion. They absolutely need to kick a goal around 25% of the time they enter the forward 50 if they're a

Essendon: Clearances. Essendon, despite their outs, have a much stronger midfield this week and should put it on the stat sheet and scoreboard.


Tip

Adelaide are really really bad, and I reckon we can win this well now, Dons by 23

 

[Milanista28]

Out Philips in Bellchambers, that'll fix it lol

 

[Halftimehero]

Please please please play Hooker forward

 

[biglaycock]

In: Francis, Clarke, Moz
Out: Redman, McKernan, Cahill

 

[supportyourteam]

So many down players against the Bulldogs. So much upside.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

nothing more certain than their first win.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Essendon by 105 points

 

[MiguelM]

Still got a game up our sleeve. Hope we don't waste it.

 

[11kgm]

we Will be their first win

 

[bombreys]

Crows really should win.

We’ll drop Cahill, Redman and maybe another kid that doesn’t deserve to be dropped - and Zaka and Langford will both keep their spot, no doubt.

Gleeson and another below average 25-30yo will come back in. Stewart, Mozzy, Clarke and Draper will remain rotting in the 2’s.

Rinse and repeat.

 

[eth-dog]

Crows really should win.

We’ll drop Cahill, Redman and maybe another kid that doesn’t deserve to be dropped - and Zaka and Langford will both keep their spot, no doubt.

Gleeson and another below average 25-30yo will come back in. Stewart, Mozzy, Clarke and Draper will remain rotting in the 2’s.

Rinse and repeat.

Langford has had a good year until tonight tbf

 

[brutus76]

In BZT Clarke The Guelf Cutler The Mozz
Out take your pick

Hooker FF Smacks CHF.

Hibberd needs rotation through midfield

Cutler on one wing put Riddler on the other if they forward tag him like Wallis did tonight as he was shut down 2nd half.

I expect a huge response next week. Lift dammit. We bleed Red and Black.

 

[Hamez]

One of BZT, Francis or Stewart needs to come in. I think we need another marking option going forward. Francis could play forward or back which allows hooker to go back. BZT would be purely back with hooker forward or Stewart as a forward. When McKernan is playing ruck we had Townsend as our down the line option.

 

[JayJ20]

Out: Cahill, Redman, Snelling, Zaharakis, Townsend
IN: Mosquito, Francis, Zerk-Thatcher, Clarke, Stewart (if fit)

Hooker forward. BZT back.

 

[eth-dog]

My ragequit changes:

Out: McKernan, Phillips, Townsend, Zaharakis, Redman, Snelling
In: Stewart, Zerk-Thatcher, Draper, Francis, Cutler, Gleeson

FB: Francis - Zerk-Thatcher - Gleeson
HB: Ridley - Hurley - Saad
MF: Cutler - McGrath - Langford
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - Smith
FF: Laverde - Hooker - Walla
OB: Draper - Parish - Hibberd (lol dreaming)
IC: Ham - Merrett - McKenna - Cahill

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Out: Townsend, Cahill, Redman
In: BZT, Mossie, Francis

 

[Pandas Dons]

Anyone playing injured, needs to be rested where possible. We cannot carry players into games - see McKenna.

I actually havent seen any Adelaide games this year, so not sure how they actually line up. If we come with pressure and intensity, then we should take the win over a side that appears to be struggling overall.

Potential outs:
McKenna - if not fit, then give him the rest he needs to heal his hand properly. If he misses, put Fantasia to the HBF.
Smith - if they want to show some guts, then he could be dropped for his lack of discipline (even though the dogs flopped for the free kicks). That being said, i would play him, just play him forward.
Townsend - i like the way he plays, but at the moment he is not getting enough of the ball. This is down to the midfield a lot, but maybe a rest/freshen up might do him good as he might be a little banged up.
Redmond - I like this guy but at the moment he is just lacking in confidence. First game back so maybe he stays, but he could be in danger of missing.

Do not drop:
Phillips. Although not great tonight, his last few weeks were pretty competitive. Unless injured or sore, our alternatives are simply worse than what he provides. If TBC comes back, he provides no second efforts whatsoever anymore.
Cahill. First game in a shocking team performance and yet I though he showed a little tonight with his limited possessions - looks smart, good skills and makes good choices with the ball.

Potential ins for me:
Francis - can play either end if needed and is a good mark and kick. If forward, might provide some presence that we are lacking due to injuries at the moment.
Mozzie - he brings 'bite' (sorry, couldnt help myself). He will bring excitement and pressure. Might help Walla a little if he plays
Clarke/Begley/Guelfi - not sure about these guys, but another performance from the group without any of them playing should meant hat they be given a chance to play in the near future.
BZT - if we want Hooker forward, play BZT back. throw him in and give him experience. I think he is a player that would be better suited around players with higher skills/IQ (if there is such a thing at Essendon at the moment).
Stewart - some height up forward. Depends on what set-up the coaches think is best. Small isnt going to work when you bomb it in there all the time.

 

[andleanback]

I hope they give Cahill another go but I think it’s likely they’ll drop him for mosquito. Ruck is another interesting call O’Brien isn’t a great tap Ruckman but dominates around the ground, so Phillips might get the nod again.
In - Stewart Francis mosquito
Out - Townsend Cahill hibberd (if they won’t play him in the middle)

 

[DallasCrane316]

OUT - Redman, Cahill, Hibberd
IN - Gleeson or Francis, Stewart, Cutler

 

[BomberTime]

This will be incredibly close, can already see it. At this stage, I’d say Crows will beat us at home.

Out: Cahill, Townsend, Hibberd, Snelling, McKernan,

In: Francis, Moz, Stewart, Cutler, BZT

Francis Thatcher Ridley
McKenna Hurley Saad
Cutler McGrath Ham
Laverde Stewart Mosquito
Fantasia Hooker Tipungwuti
Phillips Parish Merrett
Langford Smith Zaharakis Redman

Gives us some height and marking power in defence and in the forward line. Pacy smalls when it hits the deck.
Thatcher pinch hits in the ruck, which can be covered by Ridley, Hurley and Francis. This allows us to keep our forward line structure, too many times in last night McKernan was taken out and we only had Laverde as our key forward, not good enough.

 

[Dons4days]

We can’t carry smack & Townsend anymore. They simply don’t do enough.

Stewart & Francis in for them. Either Francis or Hooker plays forward.

At the end of the day we have no decent key forwards that are fit at the moment so we really need to start looking at long term options down there. I’d look to Francis, if he can’t get a game in out backline then put him up forward, he’s going to provide more of a contest than most of our other forwards right now. He’s a much more natural footballer than both Townsend and Smack.

Getting tired of this vanilla coaching strategy. So many things could have been tinkered with tonight to get us back in the game but all we see is tippa to the midfield and hooker up forwards when it’s way too late. Cahill was getting midfield minutes ahead of Hibberd which is laughable.

 

[The Prosecutor]

In: Draper, Stewart, Francis, Cutler

Out: Phillips, Townsend, Redman, Hibberd

 

[imp99]

in: corona.
out: corona.

Corona giveth, corona taketh away; just need two more byes and then Joe can cure everything.

 

[Vindicater]

Out: Townsend, Fantasia and Hibberd

In: Gleeson, Stewart and Francis

Never a fan of dropping people after one game. Always give them two to find their feet si Redman and Cahil stay for at least one more.

Townsend and Fantais were super fumble brothers. Give them a rest and bring them back later. Hibberd unlucky because I assume they will never play him in the right role.

Gleeson in allows us to push Redman onto a wing which should suit him better.

FB: Mckenna Hooker Gleeson

HB: Saad Hurley Ridley

C: Zaka Merret Ham

HF: Smith Stewart Tippa

FF: Laverde McKernan Snelling

R: Phillips McGrath Parish

Int: Redman Francis Langford Cahill

 

[essendon]

In: Any recruiter who can find an inside Mid great than 183cm ( no flankers please )
Out: Dudoro