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Anyone else sick of people claiming we are/will have salary cap issues? Here are my estimates for our current salary cap (with reasoning):
Cain Ackland: $350k per year (publicised deal in PSD)
Joe Anderson: $60k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Dennis Armfield: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)]
Mark Austin: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Jordan Bannister: $150k (mid-tier traded player)
Clinton Benjamen: $60k (very low draft pick minimum contract)
Adam Bentick: $125k (mid-tier established player)
Eddie Betts: $150k (mid-tier desired player)
Luke Blackwell: $90k (mid-tier f/s draft pick)
Paul Bower: $120k (high-regarded draft pick on second contract)
Steven Browne: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Andrew Carazzo: $220k (mid-tier established player)
Cameron Cloke: $170k (mid-tier established player)
Jake Edwards: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Brendan Fevola: $750k (Elite player, high marketing value)
Brad Fisher: $200k (mid-tier established forward)
Bryce gibbs: $220k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
shaun grigg: $120k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Richard Hadley: $160k (mid-tier established premiership player)
Shaun Hampson: $150k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Adam Hartlett: $150k (high draft pick on second contract)
Ryan Houlihan: $200k (established senior player)
Ryan Jackson: $120k (rookie elevation mid-tier player)
Chris Judd: $1.1m (publicised, possibly exagerrated contract for leagues best player)
Matthew Kreuzer: $220k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Marc Murphy: $350k (high draft pick on contract extension)
Aisaka O'Hailpin: $60k (rookie elevation)
Setanta O'Hailpin: $120k (mid-tier established fringe player)
Darren Pfeifer: $140k (mid-tier player traded from another club)
Jordan Russell: $140k (high draft pick who hasn't lived up to expectations yet)
Jason Saddington: $160k (mid-tier established player from another club)
Heath Scotland: $250k (mid-tier senior player)
Kade Simpson: $250k (mid-tier established player)
Nick Stevens: $500k (high profile recruit from another club)
Bret Thornton: $270k (mid-tier senior player, contract dispute with Hawthorn)
Jarred Waite: $300k (established senior player)
Andrew Walker: $250k (mid-tier high draft pick on second contract)
Robert Warnock: $350k (high profile trade from another club)
Simon Wiggins: $150k (mid-tier fringe player)
Total Salary tied up according to this estimate: $8.45m
AFL salary cap in 2008: $8.5m (plus marketing allowance $500k)
Strangely enough, what is the estimate of the contract to get O'Keefe we are offering - roughly $500k; pretty much exactly what I estimate we have in free space, plus the marketing allowance. And, given that Carlton people have been quoted as saying things like 'we'll have to see about fitting that contract ($500k) into the cap', I'm guessing my estimates aren't too far off the money across the board. Front-loading of Fev and Judd probably covers the negotiated ground. Quote these figures if you like to the category 1 Bigfooty morons who constantly insist we "can't fit O'Keefe under the cap because we are paying so much to Fevola and Judd"
Where it gets interesting is down the track, when we have to 're-sign all our number 1 draft picks' as the category 2 Bigfooty morons keep claiming. Lets assume that all of Murphy, Kreuzer and Gibbs, plus one of our second-tier picks (Hampson, Grigg, Bower) become stars (and forget for a moment that if that happens, in conjuction with Judd and Fev, we'll probably win 5 straight premierships). All 4 will command salaries of around $600k (as star players remaining at their first club in premiership contention) on average... That means, we need to free up a total of around $1.5m cap space. Add another $500k for the other young players who will make up our 5-straight premiership team, and we need around $2m in cap space.
Assuming that apart from the $500k general increase from age the rest of our list remains fairly constant (ie in order to take a first-round pick next year we delist Hartlett, thus replacing salary):
Ackland's contract comes off the books, to be replaced by a rookie on a minimum contract (end of 2009): $280k
Fev goes onto veteran list (end of 2010): $370k
Saddington replaced by rookie on minimum contract: $80k
Stevens current contract ends and is replaced at a lower but still high level: $100k
Increase in salary cap total over the next 3-4 years: $800k
Effects of front-loading on contracts for Judd, Fev, et al: $300k
That would provide a total of around $1.93m - roughly the $2m required. Throw in a couple of mid-range players traded/retired (think Bannister, Houlihan, Waite, Thornton), and we should be very well placed to retain our core group.
Anyway - if people disagree strongly with any of the above, let me know and I'll change the estimates. But I'm just sick of pointing out to the plebs and thought I'd make this for my own reference, as much as anything.
Cain Ackland: $350k per year (publicised deal in PSD)
Joe Anderson: $60k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Dennis Armfield: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)]
Mark Austin: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Jordan Bannister: $150k (mid-tier traded player)
Clinton Benjamen: $60k (very low draft pick minimum contract)
Adam Bentick: $125k (mid-tier established player)
Eddie Betts: $150k (mid-tier desired player)
Luke Blackwell: $90k (mid-tier f/s draft pick)
Paul Bower: $120k (high-regarded draft pick on second contract)
Steven Browne: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Andrew Carazzo: $220k (mid-tier established player)
Cameron Cloke: $170k (mid-tier established player)
Jake Edwards: $75k (low draft pick minimum contract)
Brendan Fevola: $750k (Elite player, high marketing value)
Brad Fisher: $200k (mid-tier established forward)
Bryce gibbs: $220k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
shaun grigg: $120k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Richard Hadley: $160k (mid-tier established premiership player)
Shaun Hampson: $150k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Adam Hartlett: $150k (high draft pick on second contract)
Ryan Houlihan: $200k (established senior player)
Ryan Jackson: $120k (rookie elevation mid-tier player)
Chris Judd: $1.1m (publicised, possibly exagerrated contract for leagues best player)
Matthew Kreuzer: $220k (high draft pick on rookie contract)
Marc Murphy: $350k (high draft pick on contract extension)
Aisaka O'Hailpin: $60k (rookie elevation)
Setanta O'Hailpin: $120k (mid-tier established fringe player)
Darren Pfeifer: $140k (mid-tier player traded from another club)
Jordan Russell: $140k (high draft pick who hasn't lived up to expectations yet)
Jason Saddington: $160k (mid-tier established player from another club)
Heath Scotland: $250k (mid-tier senior player)
Kade Simpson: $250k (mid-tier established player)
Nick Stevens: $500k (high profile recruit from another club)
Bret Thornton: $270k (mid-tier senior player, contract dispute with Hawthorn)
Jarred Waite: $300k (established senior player)
Andrew Walker: $250k (mid-tier high draft pick on second contract)
Robert Warnock: $350k (high profile trade from another club)
Simon Wiggins: $150k (mid-tier fringe player)
Total Salary tied up according to this estimate: $8.45m
AFL salary cap in 2008: $8.5m (plus marketing allowance $500k)
Strangely enough, what is the estimate of the contract to get O'Keefe we are offering - roughly $500k; pretty much exactly what I estimate we have in free space, plus the marketing allowance. And, given that Carlton people have been quoted as saying things like 'we'll have to see about fitting that contract ($500k) into the cap', I'm guessing my estimates aren't too far off the money across the board. Front-loading of Fev and Judd probably covers the negotiated ground. Quote these figures if you like to the category 1 Bigfooty morons who constantly insist we "can't fit O'Keefe under the cap because we are paying so much to Fevola and Judd"
Where it gets interesting is down the track, when we have to 're-sign all our number 1 draft picks' as the category 2 Bigfooty morons keep claiming. Lets assume that all of Murphy, Kreuzer and Gibbs, plus one of our second-tier picks (Hampson, Grigg, Bower) become stars (and forget for a moment that if that happens, in conjuction with Judd and Fev, we'll probably win 5 straight premierships). All 4 will command salaries of around $600k (as star players remaining at their first club in premiership contention) on average... That means, we need to free up a total of around $1.5m cap space. Add another $500k for the other young players who will make up our 5-straight premiership team, and we need around $2m in cap space.
Assuming that apart from the $500k general increase from age the rest of our list remains fairly constant (ie in order to take a first-round pick next year we delist Hartlett, thus replacing salary):
Ackland's contract comes off the books, to be replaced by a rookie on a minimum contract (end of 2009): $280k
Fev goes onto veteran list (end of 2010): $370k
Saddington replaced by rookie on minimum contract: $80k
Stevens current contract ends and is replaced at a lower but still high level: $100k
Increase in salary cap total over the next 3-4 years: $800k
Effects of front-loading on contracts for Judd, Fev, et al: $300k
That would provide a total of around $1.93m - roughly the $2m required. Throw in a couple of mid-range players traded/retired (think Bannister, Houlihan, Waite, Thornton), and we should be very well placed to retain our core group.
Anyway - if people disagree strongly with any of the above, let me know and I'll change the estimates. But I'm just sick of pointing out to the plebs and thought I'd make this for my own reference, as much as anything.
, the same applies for many other players on our list.
