Seasons End.

[mujii]

Was browsing through the freo forums and i'm doing our version of their thread, which is pretty much end of season list management. This is what I think should happen end of season:

Delist:
Bannister (maybe)
Chambers (GONE!!)
Davies (GONE!!)
Deluca (maybe/doubtful?)
Longmuir (GONE!!)
McGrath (doubtful)
Prendergast (GONE!!)
Teague (maybe)
Sporn (doubtful)
Wiggins (GONE!!)

So that's 5 certain delistings, a couple that might get delisted and one or two that might stay on.

Trade:
Ryan Houlihan: I know people have jumped back on his bandwagon, he is performing again but if we can snare a 2nd round pick for him it would be great considering this draft is one of the best ever. A 2nd round in this years draft is like a 1st round pick in last years draft like mojo pointed out in one of his threads

Lance Whitnall: The guy seems like he will make the AA team at this rate but to be honest we can't keep him anymore. He is ageing, slow and we need to get rid of him while he has some sort of value. So a late 1st rounder or an early 2nd rounder for lance would be great for us. If we end up finishing bottom four, we get Hansen with 1st pick and quick midfielder with our 2nd pick say a Collard or a Sheringham.

Retirement:
Anthony Koutoufides: Champion.. but will his body hold up? I mean i'd love to see him play for another year or so but he needs to hand the helm to the younger generation.

Please post your thoughts.

mujii

 

[HBF]

Was browsing through the freo forums and i'm doing our version of their thread, which is pretty much end of season list management. This is what I think should happen end of season:

Delist:
Bannister (maybe)
Chambers (GONE!!)
Davies (GONE!!)
Deluca (maybe/doubtful?)
Longmuir (GONE!!)
McGrath (doubtful)
Prendergast (GONE!!)
Teague (maybe)
Sporn (doubtful)
Wiggins (GONE!!)

So that's 5 certain delistings, a couple that might get delisted and one or two that might stay on.

Trade:
Ryan Houlian: I know people have jumped back on his bandwagon, he is performing again but if we can snare a 2nd round pick for him it would be great considering this draft is one of the best ever. A 2nd round in this years draft is like a 1st round pick in last years draft like mojo pointed out in one of his threads

Lance Whitnall: The guy seems like he will make AA at this rate but to be honest we can't keep him anymore. He is ageing, slow and we need to get rid of him while he has some sort of value. So a late 1st rounder or an early 2nd rounder for lance would be great for us. If we end up finishing bottom four, we get Hansen with 1st pick and quick midfielder with our 2nd pick say a Collard or a Sheringham.

Retirement:
Anthony Koutoufides: Champion.. but will his body hold up? I mean i'd loved to see him play for another year or so but he needs to hand the helm to the younger generation.

Please post your thoughts.

mujii

I appreciate that you've gone to alot of effort to make this thread and I must say that in principal I agree with you.

With the delistings, IMO, the ones that are almost certainties to go are Prendergast, Longmuir, Chambers, Davies and Wiggins.

Bannister I think could be handy, particularly with either a run with type role, or play a small defender. This role is basically being done by McGrath at the moment. Bannisters form in the VFL has been very good by all accounts and he should be given at least another shot at AFL level.

DeLuca will probably hold his spot for at least one more year, whilst guys like Kennedy and Hartlett develop further. His game against the Hawks was easily his best for the year, and IF he can hold this type of form, he deserves at least another year. Think he is also contracted until the end of next year anyway.

Teague is the problem one at the moment. Really lacks leg speed and opposition clubs have really figured him out. Wouldn't surprise me if he goes at seasons end.

As for Houlihan and Lance, can see where you are coming from in both cases. Stocks will have risen already this year, and if we can get a good draft pick for them, we should definitely take it, particularly in Lance's case. With a lot of KP talent coming through, now might be the time to bite the bullet and offload him. Saying that though, his form has been very solid and I would hate to see him flourish at another club.

 

[audas]

Trading houlihan is marrow minded, you dont give away champions.

Trading Lance at 26 is barely worth talking about, the guy is killing everyone and talk like this is really ill-considered.

Tell me how Davies has been playing this year for you to comment like this, or is it like your other comments just based on preconceptions.

Will wait for someone to post in here who knows what they are talking about.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Bannister (maybe)

He'll get his chance as a full-time defender this week. As he should. He's been outstanding in the VFL in this role. If he can replicate his form at senior level, he will be a Blue for years to come.

Chambers (GONE!!)

Agreed.

Davies (GONE!!)

Davies has more talent in his little finger than some top draft picks. What he doesn't have is the hunger, maturity, and determination to succeed. Still suspended for a stupid indiscretion during the VFL preliminary final. If he ever wants to play AFL football (and the desire's been marginal throughout), then this is the year he'll have to prove it.

Deluca (maybe/doubtful?)

Guaranteed stay. Pagan isn't about to let go of a mobile big bloke at this stage of his development (although he did with Cameron Mooney).

Longmuir (GONE!!)

Agreed. Flashy talent, but just can't find it.

McGrath (doubtful)

Will stay. Tries too hard and is generally good.

Prendergast (GONE!!)

Assuming he's out of contract, agreed. We need a big midfielder like him, but one who can find the ball and kick it.

Teague (maybe)

Still not sure about Teague. Gives everything, and certainly shows more capability than someone like Wiggins. But his deficiencies are obvious to everyone. It's sort of nice to be able to bring a guy into a team who you know will bleed for it when the situation demands it. I say keep.

Sporn (doubtful)

We have to give the guy a chance this year. He's had a crap run with injuries which have really impeded his development. Was OK the first few rounds, but it's understandable that he can get lost sometimes given how few senior games he's played since 2001(!). Might be quite useful if he plays an entire season. However, it's fair to say that 2006 is his last chance.

Wiggins (GONE!!)

Agreed. Not good enough for AFL level. Will dominate the next tier though.

To those names, I'll add:

Bryan.

I'm not convinced he shows the urgency required of a AFL ruckman. His contract comes up this year too. He'll be told by the coaching staff to get jiggy wit it, or else. I was dubious about McLaren's abilities, but so far he's given me no reason to complain. That's going to restrict Bryan's chances to show he's improved.

It all comes down to who we intend to get during the so-called superdraft of 2006. If we draft deep, then guys (like Digby last year), who shouldn't be first in line for the axe are going to get it anyway.

As for your trades:

Ryan Houlian

Nope. We need midfield class, and this guy has it. Hasn't disappointed this year despite the endless criticism.

Lance Whitnall

Ageing. Or, to put it another way, experienced. We don't have a lot of said quality in our team, and I'm loath to get rid of the one bloke who provides some generalship in it. We're not likely to get that from a 2nd round pick. Shows he still has the nous to work at top level.

Anthony Koutoufides

Not sure if he's carrying an injury right now (aside from the permanent ones of course), but if he isn't, then he's gone now. Has mostly been a spectator this season, although he's tried hard. The question is, how do you get someone on $50,000 a game to retire?

Maybe it was a mistake to appoint him captain for another season, but who do you give it to? Stevens? Whitnall? It's hard to see who else has the maturity and form to carry the job. On balance, I'd pick Whitnall.

 

[mujii]

Trading houlihan is marrow minded, you dont give away champions.

Champion? You're off your head mate.

Trading Lance at 26 is barely worth talking about, the guy is killing everyone and talk like this is really ill-considered.

Lance will hit 27 this year so what i'm trying to say is get rid of him while we can before his body gets the better of him. Don't get me wrong, Lance is a great player but i'm saying what i'm saying for the better of the club and some people would agree with me. I think it's worth taking the risk of trading him this year if we finish bottom 4.

Tell me how Davies has been playing this year for you to comment like this, or is it like your other comments just based on preconceptions.

Davies hasn't been playing this year, he'd been suspended from last year. It's just my opinion mate, if you like the bloke do so noones stopping you but I'd rather see him delisted then playing.

Will wait for someone to post in here who knows what they are talking about.

We'll wait for Mojo31's reply shell we.

 

[mujii]

AlecDuncan
To those names, I'll add:

Bryan.

I'm not convinced he shows the urgency required of a AFL ruckman. His contract comes up this year too. He'll be told by the coaching staff to get jiggy wit it, or else. I was dubious about McLaren's abilities, but so far he's given me no reason to complain. That's going to restrict Bryan's chances to show he's improved.

Sorry mate forgot to mention Bryan.

 

[OZBomb]

I'm not sure I have anything constructive to add to this, but I will say that even considering that many moves is ridiculos. Trading Houlihan or Whitnall given the few players we have in that age bracket or skill level is not a good option.

On top of that, it's round 4... round 4.

Appreciate the effort though.

 

[mujii]

Yeah, was going to say it was abit early but I was bored so I did it anyway.

 

[audas]

Champion? You're off your head mate.


Lance will hit 27 this year so what i'm trying to say is get rid of him while we can before his body gets the better of him. Don't get me wrong, Lance is a great player but i'm saying what i'm saying for the better of the club and some people would agree with me. I think it's worth taking the risk of trading him this year if we finish bottom 4.


Davies hasn't been playing this year, he'd been suspended from last year. It's just my opinion mate, if you like the bloke do so noones stopping you but I'd rather see him delisted then playing.


We'll wait for Mojo31's reply shell we.

Well pretty much no-one has agreed with yuo regarding Houlihan and Whitnal. I'm sorry to say but your point just dosent actually make sense regarding Lance at all. Its actually illogical, when you consider what you are giving away for what you get (lets face it you are giving away an awesome player who ANY team would pick up in a heart beat) for basically nothing. All you get in return for this is the chance to find someone who might one day be equal to what lance is and very few players are going to be better.

Yourrating of houlihan is undercooked he is lot better than you appear to rate him. There are a lot of poeple going around who have prejudged him and cant look with unbiased judgemnet.

And your comments on Davies dont actually make sense unfortunately. Are you saying I am allowed to like him ? ?

You want to delist a player (Davies) who, as others have said,
has more talent in his little finger than other top draft picks. Yeah so he is difficult to manage but so what. You havent seen him play this year, you dont know where he is at and he is super talented, your thinking on this seems to come from the same place that created the get rid of lance and houlihan idea.

By the way people, maybe kouta is underdone but his play in the forward line against the Hawks was impressive. You all knew he would slow done someday, he is still performing, and more reliable than %80 of the other blokes in the team so I would suggest a little lee way on the big fella. Lets face it we found room for Mick Martin.

 

[gandaal]

It would have to be a top 15 pick for me to even think of us trading Houlihan, which we probably wouldn't get. I'm very happy with the way Houla's playing and you should be too. He's been our best midfielder so far this year.

As for trading lance, you can bugger off. Why would we trade our next captain?

 

[cfc05]

Defiantely wouldn't give away hoola for a low first rd, second round draft pick after all the work we have done with him... however if a top 5, or two top 20 picks came up - would have to consider that!

With Lance, 70% of this board wanted to trade him last year.. he plays well now (therefor better trade bait) and everyone wants to keep him, you gotta realise you cant just trade players when they are going bad and expect something great! again not for one pick - way too risky, if i got 2 top 20 id consider!

 

[mujii]

The 2 trades are my suggestions. They might not take place but im suggesting we should since we could get some really good KPP players in the draft. From what Im reading from mojo's thread i'd want to trade and get a Lachlan Hansen or a Mitchell Thorp. Its not that i'm not happy with Lance or Ryan, they're both playing great this season but I think we should draft some guns this season and we'd need the picks in order to.

 

[mujii]

And your comments on Davies dont actually make sense unfortunately. Are you saying I am allowed to like him ? ?

Well you asked how he played, and I said he was suspended, so therefore he didn't play this season. So how dont they actually make any sense? It seemed to me that you liked him and think he has talent which is why you were/are standing up for him. You've said it yourself he is difficult to manage, what has he done other then score 2 bags of 3 goals against the pies which is all i remember from him. IMO get rid of him or give him one last chance, if he cant come good this season get rid of him. That's what I think.

 

[Kooley]

i know alot of carlton people rate david teague but i would like to see him delisted at the end of the year.

 

[Corrosion]

I would personally love to see Kouta played out of the square for the rest of his career. He still has a strong body, and uses it well in contests. Have Shag Between Kouta and the 50 metre arc. They'd work well as a team. If Pagan took this approach with Kouta, he could stay on for another season, which is what I'd like to see.

I wouldn't trade Whitnall either, he's of too much value to just trade away.

 

[audas]

IMO get rid of him or give him one last chance, if he cant come good this season get rid of him. That's what I think.

Fine, I think this is what most people are saying, glad to see you've come around. He has one more chance, no one would disagree with this, however not a "GONE!" as you put it.

 

[BlueWorld]

i know alot of carlton people rate david teague but i would like to see him delisted at the end of the year.

Has a 2 year contract.

Isn't it amazing how no matter what Lance & Houla do, whether they play poorly or well, everyone still wants to trade them, either because they're not worth keeping or now might be worth something.Think you'll find other clubs will not be willing to give up much for all the guns supposedly available in this draft, so chances of getting good picks for players aren't great. I don't think the club wants to spend years developing players, wait for them to come good and then start again with someone new who might become good in a few years or might not. We also have a shortage of players in their mid 20's with >100 games experience and can't go too young, especially with Kouta likely to retire & Lappin now >30. Sends a poor message to the playing group too: Work hard, improve your game and then we'll trade you.

 

[flying_doormat]

If we are to get rid of the likes like whitnall, who the hell are all the younger kids going to learn of. These kids need guidance on and off the field.
Whitnall for mine should be the next Carlton captain.

 

[Jimthegreat]

Champion? You're off your head mate.


Lance will hit 27 this year so what i'm trying to say is get rid of him while we can before his body gets the better of him. Don't get me wrong, Lance is a great player but i'm saying what i'm saying for the better of the club and some people would agree with me. I think it's worth taking the risk of trading him this year if we finish bottom 4.


Davies hasn't been playing this year, he'd been suspended from last year. It's just my opinion mate, if you like the bloke do so noones stopping you but I'd rather see him delisted then playing.


We'll wait for Mojo31's reply shell we.

26 is not old, it's an age where most players are at their peak. Lance will probably be captain next year. He's earned the right now and is a real leader.

Is that the new thing, trade players once they play well?! If you trade top players in form for early picks the risk is they may not turn out (eg Goddard...we got picks at 45 & 72, Simmo and Fisher, that year turned out way better) and you've lost badly. Wouldn't be the first time. Never give away players in top form. You ask for trouble doing things like that. If you go through things overall, and it was in a recent thread on the main board, clubs have actually had more success form the rookie list than the draft. Agree more with some of the things you said in regard to delistings, not all, but alot.

 

[bibi01]

if we trade houla, there is no guarantee the player pick up for him will be any better.

there is a whole list of 1st and 2nd round draft picks that won't be any better than houla

5 Jarrad McVeigh, 8 Luke Brennan, 15 Nick Smith, 9 Luke Molan, 11 Richard Cole, 14 Ashley Watson

teams don't give up good players unless: they are a problem around the club, they want to go home

houla has improved this season, what we need is stronger bodies around him so we can maximise his skills

 

[audas]

if we trade houla, there is no guarantee the player pick up for him will be any better.

there is a whole list of 1st and 2nd round draft picks that won't be any better than houla

5 Jarrad McVeigh, 8 Luke Brennan, 15 Nick Smith, 9 Luke Molan, 11 Richard Cole, 14 Ashley Watson

teams don't give up good players unless: they are a problem around the club, they want to go home

houla has improved this season, what we need is stronger bodies around him so we can maximise his skills

Great post.

On top of this the guy is playing like and absolute gun. Take the blinkers off people houla is really impressive, watch the last quater against the hawks.

 

[mojo31]

I would say I have answered this sort of thing before.

However here are a few of my thoughts.

The only players delisted last year were players coming out of contract. Anybody wioth a contract who was doubtful of being a long term player was kept. We needed the big bodies to complement the kids and the 2005 draft ran out after about 25 names and late picks were not going to be used.

Delisting a couple more to use very late picks would have given us more youth but very unlikely they would have made the grade. Then would have had a mandatory 2 year deal. Yoiu can delist them after 1 year but there salary still counts in both years. Plus its a very poor message to send to any youngster we draft in the future. Not even giving them 2 years to show there wares.

So it would have made it harder to delist players for this draft which is deeper, stronger and better in everyway and long term would not have been good for the list.

So basically anyone with a contract after this year will survive. We wont be paying anybody out. The players who are finishing there deals this year are.

Livo
Bannister
Sporn
Longmuir
Chambers
Bryan
Davies
Wiggins
Prendergast

so thats 9. Maybe 2 survive out of that list at the most.... maybe.

Teague and Deluca have 2 year deals and wont be delisted no matter what. Might be put up for trade but in all honesty are not going to be worth anything on there last 20 games of form.

We have 5 rookies and Aisake wont be promoted. He has another year as an international rookie. Smith has to be promoted or cut. Jackson has another year. Flint another year. Batson has to be promoted or cut (and can be re drafted after that)

Most likely 2 will get promoted if I had to guess. So if it is 7 cut then thats 5 picks used in the draft plus the 2 rookie promotions, 1st to 5th round used in the main draft.
Maybe 8 cut and use the 6th round or not bother and use the PSD to pick another kid (same as using your 6th rounder to be honest).

With the rumblings from Smorgon about "youth" and JR and Setanta a little suprisingly getting a call up last week when "suddenly" Collo resigned I would say any more Chambers/Longmuir type trades wont be looked at in the future. Kids or bust will be what is done.

The Collingwood strategy from last year where they traded a player who wanted out in Cole for a pick. Used a lot of picks and took kids in the PSD and overlooked Campo and did not bother to approach Lappin to put himself in there. They took a full bank of kids and I would say we will be doing that. No top ups or a lot of trading unless a player wants out. Just the draft.

So thats what I see happening.

 

[Pafloyul]

This club and its supporters are in fantasy land if we think we can keep up with the other clubs just by going through the motions.

It is like a middle-aged couple who won't let their 18 year old son move out of home. It is not like as if we are starting from the same level as most other clubs - there is no priority pick anymore, remember?

Think of the future for Christ's sake! Big jack has left this club a constipated wreck!!!

 

[Silvagnis]

I'd keep Deluca on the list even though he is a Gumby because he is tall, mobile and can fill a spot whilst Kennedy, Hartlett, etc. develop. Teague should be paid out because if we're looking for an average HBF Bannister offers us more with his build and height. I can't see Teague being selected ahead of Bower, Russell and a gun draft pick next year with Tbird better suited to his role.

 

[mojo31]

As for trading and who we draft.

We need a versatile big man who can play down back and cover almost anybody. Can push them forward when needed to stretch defenses and when they are dragged to the goal square or played on power forwards or midfielders (like the Dogs do to teams) they can hold there own and adjust there game.
Play in front for a quick leading small/med forward (R Murphy, B Johnson), play off a huge power forward who engage in wrestling a long way off the ball and push there defender off the ball and protect the drop zone (B Hall type) and take the real athletic flanker/KPP types who can run all day (Croad,Riewdolt) and have extreme speed off the mark.
Can play at CHB/FB and are skilled at using the ball.

There are 3 in the draft and they are Hansen, Thorp and Riewoldt. They all can play forward as well depnding on how our other kids develop. 1 of those 3 would be my priority with Riewoldt not quite in the class of the other 2 at this stage.
Looking at our list we have Bower developing who has athleticism and skill and a good size for a kid who has just turned 18. But we wont know if he is good enough for a while yet since he is bottom aged and is a few years off being physically ready. Good signs so far but a long way to go.

After that we need players who can use the ball and have speed. Good kicking skills and decision makers.

Someone asked me in a pm the other day who we would look at in the draft and I basically said 1 versatile tall and then a whole bank of quick skilled runners would be what I want.

I asked them 1 simple question. Look at our team against Hawthorn and look at who was to come in and look in a few years as to who will retire.

So basically take the 22. Waite and Fev come in of course. So thats 2 talls as automatic selections. Bower,Hartlett, Edwards, Raso, Flint, Kennedy, Aisake, Batson as talls developing. Some will make it and some wont. But thats quite a few.

Where are the runners ?????

Smith, Blackwell : inside ball winners with okay speed but a long way off quick.
Jackson as a tallish flanker/midfielder with great aerobic capacity but no breakway speed.

None of these 3 guys has great kicking skill or speed or flair. They are good solid types.

Where is our Dale Thomas, Xavier Ellis, Scott Pendlerbury,Tambling etc developing in the 2s? I am just picking names out there. The point being where are our skilled ball carriers in the VFL? We need 4 or 5 in there developing. If we had a Kade Simpson an Andrew Walker, Eddie Betts etc type players in the VFL playing and developing then the list would be better balanced.

Thats nobodies fault with the draft penalties but its where we are at. We have decent talls in the AFL and a lot of developing tall players in reserve. Our midfield is getting better but lacks real run and class compared to others. We dont have enough developing kids to fill in there coming up. So at the moment we have a lot of talls compared to runners and retiremenmts over the next few years will likely tilt that even further. They dont have to be the quality of those 3 but something similar is more realistic but a notch below.

Kouta and Lappin will likely be gone in 2 years. Our only experienced tall likely to be gone in 4 years is Lance and if you include him you can throw in Scotland and Stevens who are around the same age.

As for trading.

Lance on 2005 form is expendable. 375k a season for a player who was not cutting it up forward (not much more than a goal a game for about 12 to 14 games last year up forward) and as a backman got a lot of it but had a lot of goals kicked on him. Others were forced to cover for him and he was unaccountable and just a free man back there when all said and done.
Finished 3rd in the best and fairest but was not the 3rd most important player in 2005. Maybe 6 to 8 was a better guide.
Under those circumstances I would trade him in a heart beat.

However his form in 2006 is not even remotely like it was last year. Is playing like a true defender this year. Of course he is limited by his athleticism but he is fitter and working harder in games. Taking real responsability and organising players. Shwoing genuine leadership by the way he plays and his organising on the field. Not just poiting at a kid and telling them to pick up his man but taking a dangerous forward and telling others where else to move. When to drop off and switch players. When to run off and when to crowd others out etc.. He was smashed against Croad who is an athletic freak and almost no CHB can go with him on the lead. So I do not blame Lance for that. He tried but he cant run with Croad.
They put him forward and he kicked goals, looked very dangerous. These were not soft goals or easy goals. They were contested marks and strong leads. He lead and lead and worked and kept going.

It was the best game Lance has played for a number of years. It was turning the clock back to when he was a gun. Maybe he wont play at that level each week but throwing in the other 3 games this year he has raised his game from last year quite a lot. Better as a defender and (only on 3/4 of a game) more dangerous up forward. Capable of competing with Hall and McParlin.
So basically can play CHB for 3/4 of the season and maybe move him forward for the other1/4 when he has no match up or we are a forward or 2 down (Fev and Waite for example).
He will also teach the kids how to play both positions and set a good example. Its all dependent on his form continuing though. Maybe he loses motivation and gains weight. Stops presenting and training hard and goes back into old habits. If he does I will change my mind. But at the moment he looks like a changed man and needs to be congratulated for it.

Changes his game and takes a pay cut. Trains hard and shows leadership. Not sure you trade those types. They need to be rewarded for working on there defiencies.

Same for Fev and Houla. Those "3 amigos" were the ones with the talent but were not giving us what we needed last year compared to what there output could have been. Those 3 would be our best players in the early part of the year. Maybe its just a passing phase and old habits will start again. But unless they do we need to keep them.

We have no alternative to Lance at CHB. Bower is the one and he is not ready. Will play HBF in the AFL next year and maybe later this year but is a few years developing the body needed. If we draft Hansen or Thorp and want to play them back then they are athletic enough to play anywhere in the back half. You can play Lance, Hansen and Bower in the same side. Along with Thornton.
You cant squeeze Teague, Livo or Saddington in there but for me they are stop gap measures who in 2 years will be gone anyway. Not in my long term plans. Hansen is more mobile than Teague and so is Bower. They might be almost 10cms taller but are more skilled, quicker and versatile.

You can throw in AW back there if the club wants and JR. Looks tall but lets have a genuine look at what types they are.

AW and JR are in the quickest 4 players at the club depsite being 187 and 190cms tall. They can take the Davey, Milne forward pocket types.
Lance takes the power forward at CHB. Thornton takes the goal square against medium/talls. Hansen and Bower take the 2nd/3rd tall. Can both use the ball and play on 188cms to 195cms players. Thornton/Bower/Hansen can swap over depending on match ups.

JR/AW can be released into the midfield depending on need and development. If Edwards or Flint come up to take the 3rd tall. Use McGrath or Carrazzo back there also.
Hansen can be developed as a tall forward if needed. Lance can be moved forward for some games.

So there are options and legitimate KPP prospects developing who have time to improve. They learn off Lance and can pinch hit as kpp defenders and after 3 or 4 years on the list they are ready to take on the power forwards. Lance is retired and the transition is complete.

If we had a player like Bower 3 years ago and he was ready now then thats different. Or a Hansen or Thorp but we have Bower now and he turned 18 in January and needs 3 pre seasons and 30 or 40 games in the AFL before he is ready to play KPP. Maybe he wont make the grade but we wont know that at the end of this year. He has everything needed but also has a few rough edges to be ironed out as well.

So Lance playing the floating role down back and not responsible for anybody then I would trade him. May as well throw Bower in for that type of role and take the hit next year over it and inside 2 years be better off with the pick and using Bower in the meantime who will likely develop into a KPP by then and we gain a decent pick. But Lance as a real KPP playing on Hall is a different story. Bower cant do that, Livo cant. Thorton is not strong enough. Hartlett is not a defender (in my opinion) and is injured a lot.
So he gives us something we dont have then. There are no alternatives who are ready.

I would look to trade players who are

- surplus to need and we have a glut of
- problem players who disrupt the playing list
- likely to be surpassed by younger players very soon who have more upside

Lance round 1 to 4 in 2006 form

-surplus at CHB? no
- problem ? no
- younger? Bower maybe but not ready and to early to know within a decent risk level.

Houilhan 2006 form

- Surplus? Who replaces him? Take the full list and injuries/suspension into account. There are no expereienced players who take his position out at the moment. He is a starting 18 player who is 24. He starts on the ground with our full list available. He is not "depth".
- Problem ? No.
- younger? Tall utility with decent speed and skill who is versatile and works hard. Maybe Jackson but he is not anywhere near Houlihan in class and will unlikely get there. Plus we need more of Houlas type.

Houlihan is in our best 15 players now. Take retirements of Lappin and Kouta over the next few years and the fact he is still 24 and in the VFL there are not a glut of runners coming through and we would be trading a player like Houlihan who has worked hard, changed his game and is giving us what we need more of. He is experienced and versatile and will play 100 more games if he continues his form.

2005 form yes trade both. 2006 form no way. I know we get more for them if there form is better but we dont have replacements coming through who are ready. Who we can say within a resonable guess will make it and can trade our middle tier of experience to get a kid.

If Saddington was setting the world on fire then maybe Lance has a rival. If Bower was 20 and 95kgs and had played 25 AFL games. If we drafted Hansen last year and he was burning it up in the VFL and had to be givena senior game now. But none of those things are true and we have a lot of kids and some hope they will make it and thats all. No form on the board. Bakc in the draft now and waiting for the kids to develop.

As for Houlihan well like I said if we had 4 or 5 quality classy runners in the VFL who were developing and some had started to break into the senior side and play at a level that indicates they may well overtake Houla next year and the year after then you might look at it. But looking at our list the only 1 who is a ball carrier who is not a regular now in our side is JR.
He is likely to take Teagues spot later this year and next (hopefully this week to be honest when Teague is dropped and JR is retained).
Murphy, Kade, AW are all in our team. If we had another 3 at that level in the VFL then you might see Houla struggling in a few years to keep his place but we do not.

As for what each player is worth.

In a normal draft

2005 form Lance is worth pick 25.
2006 form he is worth pick 15.

Houlihan 2005 form is worth pick 40
2006 form pick 25

Take into account the depth of the 2006 draft you have to add to that.

2006 superdraft

Lance (2005 form) pick 35
(2006 form) pick 25

Houla (2005 form) pick 50
(2006 form) pick 30

Of course thats just a guess. Its not weighted in our favour and you would want more to trade them.

Anybody who looks at what the Hawks did with trading Thompson/Hay and wants us to do that. Maybe you need to have a good hard look at the flack that the Roos and Laidley is copping over that and ask how many clubs are going to be "brave" enough to trade 1st round picks.
Its going to be very hard to get any and especially with the strength of the draft. 2nd round picks would a lot more realistic.

I just would not trade Lance and Houla on there 2006 form so far. There is a vacuum behind them as far as ready made replacements. Lance playing as a CHB who can take a key forward and play 1 on 1 and hold his own in the bodywork and then go forward sometimes. Thats what he has done in 2006.
If he starts "zoning off" and letting his forward get the ball at will and wait back then thats a different story.

2003/4/5 Lance is expendable for the right price. 2006 Lance is not with our list. Same for Houla.

Thats my brief answer.