Preview Semi Final Knockout - Carn the Eagles!

[Windhover]

The point is well made in these posts that the Pies-Eagles game was a real final whereas Essendon was so bad that the game lacked any finals intensity, despite the huge crowd. Your forward press against the Pies worked well and really kept you in a game where you were being beaten up in the mid-field by Pendelbury and Swan.

Your forward press against us in round 14 was also very impressive and this was not affected by the ins and outs in the Carlton side on that day. That said, your rucks to one side, your other midfielders are easily worse at this stage of their development than those of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn or Carlton. Priddis is a great ball winner but average (at best) ball user. I am relaxed at the thought of Judd, Murphy, Carrazzo, Ellard, Scotland and Robinson up against Priddis, Kerr (1/2 done), Shuey, S. Selwood, Goff and Masten.

I do not see either side having match winners forward or back that will significantly alter the tide of ball delivered by a dominant midfield. A fit Cox and Natanui are certainly better than Warnock and whoever, but not by that much. Because of your young midfield you need Cox to be 100% and this does not seem possible (although he does play well through injury).

And this is the reason the Geelong and Collingwood fans come on to this thread and express hope with quivering lips that your team will win. They do not fear you. I expect a very good match until your midfield tires and then, when your air goes down, Carlton to get away. If the above analysis is right you will have much to look forward to, next year.

 

[wce1989]

The point is well made in these posts that the Pies-Eagles game was a real final whereas Essendon was so bad that the game lacked any finals intensity, despite the huge crowd. Your forward press against the Pies worked well and really kept you in a game where you were being beaten up in the mid-field by Pendelbury and Swan.

Your forward press against us in round 14 was also very impressive and this was not affected by the ins and outs in the Carlton side on that day. That said, your rucks to one side, your other midfielders are easily worse at this stage of their development than those of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn or Carlton. Priddis is a great ball winner but average (at best) ball user. I am relaxed at the thought of Judd, Murphy, Carrazzo, Ellard, Scotland and Robinson up against Priddis, Kerr (1/2 done), Shuey, S. Selwood, Goff and Masten.

I do not see either side having match winners forward or back that will significantly alter the tide of ball delivered by a dominant midfield. A fit Cox and Natanui are certainly better than Warnock and whoever, but not by that much. Because of your young midfield you need Cox to be 100% and this does not seem possible (although he does play well through injury).

And this is the reason the Geelong and Collingwood fans come on to this thread and express hope with quivering lips that your team will win. They do not fear you. I expect a very good match until your midfield tires and then, when your air goes down, Carlton to get away. If the above analysis is right you will have much to look forward to, next year.

So apart from Robinson, who else is missing from your dominant midfield that was out-played by ours in round 14? EDIT: Carrazzo didn't play either.

You have more class in the midfield, yes. But I'll back our players to apply so much pressure that it'll bridge the gap.

Also, our back line is in ripping good form so not sure why you think the guys we have down there aren't good enough to cope with the apparent tide of ball going into your forward line.

 

[PooMonkey]

Juddy did have a bad case of Flu that day which he played through...
He will be pumped for this game...will have a lot to prove, and I dare say the wc players and crowd will get into him.

Not sure if that is going to help you or make it worse...

I think he will turn it on.

Regardless I just hope for a good game, which I'm sure we will get.

Best of luck to whoever wins and goes through to play the cats the following week.

 

[Keys]

The point is well made in these posts that the Pies-Eagles game was a real final whereas Essendon was so bad that the game lacked any finals intensity, despite the huge crowd. Your forward press against the Pies worked well and really kept you in a game where you were being beaten up in the mid-field by Pendelbury and Swan.

Your forward press against us in round 14 was also very impressive and this was not affected by the ins and outs in the Carlton side on that day. That said, your rucks to one side, your other midfielders are easily worse at this stage of their development than those of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn or Carlton. Priddis is a great ball winner but average (at best) ball user. I am relaxed at the thought of Judd, Murphy, Carrazzo, Ellard, Scotland and Robinson up against Priddis, Kerr (1/2 done), Shuey, S. Selwood, Goff and Masten.

I do not see either side having match winners forward or back that will significantly alter the tide of ball delivered by a dominant midfield. A fit Cox and Natanui are certainly better than Warnock and whoever, but not by that much. Because of your young midfield you need Cox to be 100% and this does not seem possible (although he does play well through injury).

And this is the reason the Geelong and Collingwood fans come on to this thread and express hope with quivering lips that your team will win. They do not fear you. I expect a very good match until your midfield tires and then, when your air goes down, Carlton to get away. If the above analysis is right you will have much to look forward to, next year.

On the bolded bits :

Our forward press didn't work that well against the Pies IMO - they were able to bring the ball out of our forward half too easily through the likes of O'Brien, Shaw and Davis. It was Glass and McKenzie in particular, and to a lesser extent Hurn who stood tall in defence and managed to restrict the Pies to 12 goals despite numerous forward 50 entries.

Our tiring midfield still managed to find a way to come back at Collingwood in the last quarter and give them a real fright when coming into three quarter time we looked shot.

 

[Suma Magic]

If Carlton had beaten us by 6 goals at Subi this year (even if we were missing a couple of players), and were now hosting a final in Melbourne, I reckon they'd be pretty confident.

 

[West Coast 06]

If Carlton had beaten us by 6 goals at Subi this year (even if we were missing a couple of players), and were now hosting a final in Melbourne, I reckon they'd be pretty confident.

So true!

Can't believe they somehow think they have some sort of advantage over us because they apparently play well at Subi? I like to think we play the ground pretty well.

Don't think it is in the bag, but; one days extra break, don't have to travel, home ground advantage, crowd behind us (umpires too ), strongest team available if Cox and Kerr are in. The odds are good if we come to play and there is no reason why we shouldn't in a knock out final.

 

[nameless]

The thing that gives me most confidence is the fact that a lot of their forwards - to me, aren't great finals players.

Last week was not of a finals standards and guys like Gartlett and Betts don't seem the type to really step up to the next level come September.

The desperation shown by ASelwood, Waters, Schofield etc. illustrates to me that they won't allow the Carlton small forwards have an easy touch. Walker could be a bit of a danger man, while Sentanta won't be winning games of footy off his boot.

The game will be won for Carlton through their excellent midfield, and in my opinion letting Judd + Murphy have 80 touches will be a lot more damaging that Pendles and Swan (with massive respect to those two).

Last week was a terrific effort from our boys and i certainly saw the beginning of something, the boys will be gutted about the loss and rightly so, but this weekend i can't see Carlton taking it up to us quite like Collingwood.

 

[Bison]

The myth about Carlton fowards not playing well in finals is nothing more than that, a myth

Prior to the game, all we heard was 'finals is different, how will they cope?', 13 goals between them later we hearing 'it wasnt a real finals type game, they still cant play well in them'

I'm a firm believer in 'you make your own luck' type attitude. We made that game what it was by cutting Essendon up. Essendon have proved throughout the year that they can play high pressure football, we didnt allow them. Our game plan and execution allowed our forwards to kick goals, whether thats the last day in September, the middle of June or Wednesday at the local park, you get what you put in.

If our midfield can do the same thing, we put ourselves in the best place to win. We all feel like we have more to prove against the Eagles after you beat us, so a redemption type attitude is very likely. We have some important ins that will match up well against you also

What is the overall gossip on Cox and Kerr? Assuming they play, are they at 100% or coming in underdone?

A couple of things I am really looking forward to is
Warnock/Hampson v NicNat/Cox
Judd v Selwood
Murphy v the rest

Will Murphys great game influence the way you treat him?

I said on the Carlton board our MC really has to get the selection right here, and from there I have the faith in our players to get a win

I feel its a 60/40 game in West Coast favour, 55/45 if it rains

Good luck

 

[nameless]

Fair enough comment about the fwds, I still hold some reservations about their ability in big games, but this weekend will be their best chance to show they can step up.

If your mids play like they did on Sunday you will win, but we would have to completely drop our pressure like nothing we have previously done.

I'd say we'd stick with focusing on stopping Judd's output, he is still the #1 man, but Murphy proved he is just as damaging last weekend.

Don't think it will rain, i actually read that it'll be about 25 degrees during the day.

 

[ESKIE]

So true!

Can't believe they somehow think they have some sort of advantage over us because they apparently play well at Subi? I like to think we play the ground pretty well.

Don't think it is in the bag, but; one days extra break, don't have to travel, home ground advantage, crowd behind us (umpires too ), strongest team available if Cox and Kerr are in. The odds are good if we come to play and there is no reason why we shouldn't in a knock out final.

Blues should be pretty fresh, had a break in round 23, and an easy win last week, West Coast are rightfully favourites, IMO it depends on the fitness of Cox and Kerr.

We are in with a chance for sure, should be a ripper

 

[HBF]

I don't think West Coast could have been any more impressive this year. To come from where they have last year is a massive effort, and really did push Collingwood all the way last week. Just a couple of queries re: your squad:

Are you guys concerned by the lack of experience in your midfield aside from Kerr & Priddis. I'm talking about guys like Gaff, Shuey, Masten, Masten & S.Selwood, and whether the weight of expectations will get to them?

Listening to SEN over here tonight, Basil Zemplis (sp?) was on, and was asked about Cox. Said that he was likely to play, but didn't think he'd be at his best. What's he been like carrying injuries into games, as I know he's missed alot of footy prior to the 2011 season

And finally, do you guys think it will be a factor that your second bye was in round 15, and ours was in round 23?

I'm sure alot of Carlton supporters are hopeful rather than confident that we can knock you off in the West. Just hoping for a cracking game of footy.

 

[Cuzz09]

Can picture Judd having a blinder.

Whether we win or not is another story.

Hope we dont go out in ****ing straight sets AGAIN!!

 

[WCErevival]

One thing that gives me confidence is last year when we were terrible they came over and only won by around 20 points. I know its a final this time but we are so much better then last year and I dont think they have improved much(yes I know they finished 5th this year but it was more due to the disappearing act of Freo, Bulldogs and Saints this year).

Also watching last week I couldnt believe how bad Essendon were. Had no structure or anything. They still kicked a reasonable score without a forward line so Carltons defence doesn't look too good.

 

[MaxHunt]

No Gibbs should also assist us.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/bryce-gibbs-and-matthew-kreuzer-to-be-kept-out-of-semi-final-against-west-coast/story-e6frf9io-1226135563444

 

[BrandonG]

No Gibbs should also assist us.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/bryce-gibbs-and-matthew-kreuzer-to-be-kept-out-of-semi-final-against-west-coast/story-e6frf9io-1226135563444

i still think gibbs will play will just have to wait and see the teams

 

[WaltzingMatera]

I don't think West Coast could have been any more impressive this year. To come from where they have last year is a massive effort, and really did push Collingwood all the way last week. Just a couple of queries re: your squad:

Are you guys concerned by the lack of experience in your midfield aside from Kerr & Priddis. I'm talking about guys like Gaff, Shuey, Masten, Masten & S.Selwood, and whether the weight of expectations will get to them?

Listening to SEN over here tonight, Basil Zemplis (sp?) was on, and was asked about Cox. Said that he was likely to play, but didn't think he'd be at his best. What's he been like carrying injuries into games, as I know he's missed alot of footy prior to the 2011 season

And finally, do you guys think it will be a factor that your second bye was in round 15, and ours was in round 23?

I'm sure alot of Carlton supporters are hopeful rather than confident that we can knock you off in the West. Just hoping for a cracking game of footy.

It sounds like you have bigger injury problems (Gibbs, Kruezer certainly). Cox will play at 90% (good enough) and Kerr should easily play considering he gets another weeks break and was close to playing last week.

In regards to lack of experience, well we'll see. All of those guys you highlighted have stood up at different points this year plus they all did fine last week considering the immense pressure. I'm not so concerned there.

As somebody said previously, if this was a normal home-and-away game then WC would win pretty easily but as it is not then it becomes a lot more intriguing.

Remember we haven't lost at Subi since Rd 3....

 

[Prem87]

They'll name him, and withdraw before the game.

If he's out it makes things a little easier. Anyway I don't rate him highly, think he doesn't impact games as much as he could, there are others who are more important to their team ie. players like Robinson, Gartlett etc. that need to be stopped.

 

[dirk pitt]

Remember we haven't lost at Subi since Rd 3....

Other than a win by a kick over an out of sorts Geelong (who managed to lose to the Dons the week prior), have you actually played anyone of consequence at home since round 3?

It's a great record to be sure. And we may yet prove inconsequential. I'm just not sure its as impressive as it looks on paper.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

Other than a win by a kick over an out of sorts Geelong (who managed to lose to the Dons the week prior), have you actually played anyone of consequence at home since round 3?

It's a great record to be sure. And we may yet prove inconsequential. I'm just not sure its as impressive as it looks on paper.

That's ok you will get to see the live version on Saturday night. Oh and I think Geelong kicked 7.7 in the last half to 3.5 of that game so I find it a bit hard to believe they were out of sorts. We kind of blitzed them late in the first quarter and in the second quarter when we kicked 9 in a row.

 

[Brazen]

Other than a win by a kick over an out of sorts Geelong (who managed to lose to the Dons the week prior), have you actually played anyone of consequence at home since round 3?

It's a great record to be sure. And we may yet prove inconsequential. I'm just not sure its as impressive as it looks on paper.

Thats the point mate - teams come over here and look out of sorts. So Geelong are a team 'of consequence' and fell short over here once they were 'out of sorts'. Its certainly easier at home than away, and we beat a team called Carlton away...

 

[HoneyBadger35]

Let's just say, for argument's sake, that Subi is neutral ground. We beat Carlton in Melbourne, undoubtably Carlton territory. So even if Subi is neutral ground, we're getting more of an advantage than we had on the day we beat them by 5 goals. So....7/8 goals then?

 

[WaltzingMatera]

Other than a win by a kick over an out of sorts Geelong (who managed to lose to the Dons the week prior), have you actually played anyone of consequence at home since round 3?

It's a great record to be sure. And we may yet prove inconsequential. I'm just not sure its as impressive as it looks on paper.

Oh... you're and idiot...why did I bother?

 

[Eagles_712]

Gibbs v waters going in hard, interesting to see if they will risk it. An A/C sprain could turn into a 9-12 month injury

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

Gibbs v waters going in hard, interesting to see if they will risk it. An A/C sprain could turn into a 9-12 month injury

Interestingly Waters can knock guys out as he proved with good old Jobe even when he's not trying!

 

[Bestbird]

Let's just say, for argument's sake, that Subi is neutral ground. We beat Carlton in Melbourne, undoubtably Carlton territory. So even if Subi is neutral ground, we're getting more of an advantage than we had on the day we beat them by 5 goals. So....7/8 goals then?

I'm not sold on the Neutral ground argument by Carlton supporters.

They struggled for a fair part of the game last year when we we were crap