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Shaun "Rolls Royce" Burgoyne

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Buddy and the Hawk said:
Well they could be considered estimates, or completely made up. Either way, trying to reduce a decision like this to numbers is ridiculous (and I'm a maths person).
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If you are a maths person you should recognise I didn't reduce the decision to maths - I represented the thinking behind the decision to a simple algorithm - quite a different thing.

BTW I also have some experience (over 10 years) studying and working in applied quantitative analysis.

if you want to talk numbers, Slatts is probably the person most likely to get you.
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Really - the estimates I used in the algorithm are quite realistic and represent the following seeing you and slattery don't understand:

0.9 - quality of a player like burgoyne 9 out of 10 = 0.9
80% - chance of realizing quality after we picked him NB not 100% as he was injured
33% - this is the chance a draft pick around 5-15 will play 10 years (figure chosen somewhat empirically by checking previous drafts).
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Brown Blood said:
0.9 - quality of a player like burgoyne 9 out of 10 = 0.9
80% - chance of realizing quality after we picked him NB not 100% as he was injured
33% - this is the chance a draft pick around 5-15 will play 10 years (figure chosen somewhat empirically by checking previous drafts).
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I'm sorry, applied mathematics then.
You reduced the thinking into something way too simple.
Ok, 0.9 was his quality in 2006, at 23/24 years old. He hadn't shown that type of quality since.
80% - well is injury the only thing stopping him from realising his potential while at Hawthorn? no other factors? I would rate a fully fit player at maybe 80%
33% - depends on how many drafts you look. Recruiting has changed massively over the last few years and is recoming far better at predicting good players. Essendon recruiting staff would back themselves to identify suitable talent.

Through your algorithm it would be easy to show the Freo made the right decision in the croad/mcpharlin trade.

Croad = [10 x 75%] x [.7 x .80%] = 7.5 x .56 = 4.2
McPharlin = [10 x 40%] x [.7 x .50%] = 4.0 x .35 = 1,4 total 6.6

18yr old early 1st round draftee = [10 x 80%] x [.9 x 60%] = 8 x .0.54 = 4.32 (being extremely generous, Josh Fraser went no.1 2 years earlier, drafting wasn't quite what it is now)
18yr old early 2nd round draftee = [10 x 30%] x [.7 x 50%] = 3 x .0.35 = 1.05 (Just slightly behind Melksham).
18yr old early 3rd round draftee = [10 x 27%] x [.6 x 40%] = 2.7 x .0.24 = 0.648 total 6.018

So by that, Freo made the correct decision.

Also, your two variables are actually closely related, the chances of playing 10 years is fairly dependent on talent and chance of reaching potential.

We've made the correct decison in our situation, Essendon it theirs.
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Buddy and the Hawk said:
I'm sorry, applied mathematics then.
You reduced the thinking into something way too simple.
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As I stated it is a simple algorithm - there is no need to make it complex as all it was designed to do was evaluate 2 different players with the same criteria.
Ok, 0.9 was his quality in 2006, at 23/24 years old. He hadn't shown that type of quality since.
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Generally accepted he is an elite midfielder being an AA & was VC of port - whether he is considered to rate .9 or .8 out of 10 on this basis makes little difference (his form coming back from injury over recent weeks justifys the rating).
80% - well is injury the only thing stopping him from realising his potential while at Hawthorn? no other factors? I would rate a fully fit player at maybe 80%
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We know he can play & we know he has had no other issues apart from injuries as he has been in the system for almost 10 yrs (and is known to the coach).
33% - depends on how many drafts you look. Recruiting has changed massively over the last few years and is recoming far better at predicting good players. Essendon recruiting staff would back themselves to identify suitable talent.
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Its realistic for picks 5-15 - many picks fail to play any games let alone play over 10 years - look at thorp & dowler for example.

BTW as far as essendon goes they bought williams who is hardly delivering to their expectation - picking young players in a draft (let alone established players) is an inexact science.

Through your algorithm it would be easy to show the Freo made the right decision in the croad/mcpharlin trade.

Croad = [10 x 75%] x [.7 x .80%] = 7.5 x .56 = 4.2
McPharlin = [10 x 40%] x [.7 x .50%] = 4.0 x .35 = 1,4 total 6.6

18yr old early 1st round draftee = [10 x 80%] x [.9 x 60%] = 8 x .0.54 = 4.32 (being extremely generous, Josh Fraser went no.1 2 years earlier, drafting wasn't quite what it is now)
18yr old early 2nd round draftee = [10 x 30%] x [.7 x 50%] = 3 x .0.35 = 1.05 (Just slightly behind Melksham).
18yr old early 3rd round draftee = [10 x 27%] x [.6 x 40%] = 2.7 x .0.24 = 0.648 total 6.018

So by that, Freo made the correct decision.
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I think you overrate croads and definately mcpharlins ability and maybe even underweight the value of the no 1 draft pick in the strongest draft for 10 years - with a re-weighting it slightly moves to our advantage.

And if croad had performed as he did at HFC (reaching AA) then the trade would have ended up very close.

Also, your two variables are actually closely related, the chances of playing 10 years is fairly dependent on talent and chance of reaching potential.
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Yes & no - you can have talent but still get cut down by injury or lose form or drop out for another reason.

We've made the correct decison in our situation, Essendon it theirs.
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Oh I think essendon are already questioning theirs & the 3 year contract.
 

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Brown Blood said:
Oh I think essendon are already questioning theirs & the 3 year contract.
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Don't think Essendon would be questioning Melksham at all, Willo, maybe, but he cost little in terms of draft position. Gave up picks 16, 42, 89 and Jay Nash(nothing) for Willo, Picks 24, 33 and 58. Willo was almost free, almost. 3 year contract hurts them. When you consider pick 16 came for Andrew Lovett (aka football club cancer) overall, they'd be pretty happy with their trade week performance, even if Willo delivers little.

We on the other hand gave up Pick 9 and Willo for Burgs.
 
Buddy and the Hawk said:
Don't think Essendon would be questioning Melksham at all, Willo, maybe, but he cost little in terms of draft position. Gave up picks 16, 42, 89 and Jay Nash(nothing) for Willo, Picks 24, 33 and 58. Willo was almost free, almost. 3 year contract hurts them. When you consider pick 16 came for Andrew Lovett (aka football club cancer) overall, they'd be pretty happy with their trade week performance, even if Willo delivers little.

We on the other hand gave up Pick 9 and Willo for Burgs.
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We got Hoopers pick to.

Burgoyne > Andrew Moore

Rhan Hooper > Mark Williams
 
Brown Blood said:
As I have posted I think that is and will continue to be proven a good trade.
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I agree we did well, I just don't believe us doing well means everybody else stuffed up. We did the right thing for our situation. If we'd done something similar back in 2004 traded off a pick for say, Adem Yze, or player of about 26/27 it would have been ridiculous.

Essendon are us in about 2006 at the moment (although they won't probably win one in 2 years) They still have to draft and trade for the future, so chasing top players like Burgs is not what they should be looking at.
 
Buddy and the Hawk said:
Essendon are us in about 2006 at the moment (although they won't probably win one in 2 years) They still have to draft and trade for the future, so chasing top players like Burgs is not what they should be looking at.
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nor should they be looking at williams IMO.
 
For the "pick" (Downgrade one pick, upgrade another = net loss of not very much)
we gave up for Williams, he was and is worthwhile for a guy still capable of doing pretty good things.
The 3 years/ nigh-on $1M contract might prove over the odds.
 
Slattery_20 said:
FFS! 6 months after their trades, J Hay > [whichever draftee you got] and Thompson >>>>>> [whichever draftee you got].
Apples vs oranges comparison.
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Through some round about trading we pretty much got J.Lewis for Thompson. Lewis had him covered within 6 months :D
We got big Max for Hay. Despite his injury issues, still a win ;)
 

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Slattery_20 said:
And Bo Nixon! Don't forget that!
Trust me to pluck the wrong example out of thin air...
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Haha, Bo was just there because we couldn't trade picks 10 and 26 for 7 (couldn't just swap picks for picks back then).
Gotta love all the funny trades clubs do, what ever happened to Lachlan Veale?
 
Slattery_20 said:
FFS! 6 months after their trades, J Hay > [whichever draftee you got] and Thompson >>>>>> [whichever draftee you got].
Apples vs oranges comparison.
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Actually Birchall > Hay first 6 months.

And yes I agree with you, you can't compare the two. I think for our playing group Shaun will have a massive positive affect just with leadership qualities which we required. Playing ability, well......

Its not every day a team gets to add a player of his ilk to you list.

I am very satisfied with the trading/drafting period we had adding;

Burgoyne
Gibson
Stratton
Hooper

And giving up Williams, McGlynn, Kennedy, and Pick 9 feels like a comfortable win.
 
Buddy and the Hawk said:
Through some round about trading we pretty much got J.Lewis for Thompson. Lewis had him covered within 6 months :D
We got big Max for Hay. Despite his injury issues, still a win ;)
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We got Birchall & Bailey for Hay and Lonie (who wasn't worth much to the deal, just a sweetner).
 

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DannyJ said:
We got Birchall & Bailey for Hay and Lonie (who wasn't worth much to the deal, just a sweetner).
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Not sure how linked Lonie to Port and the Motlop to Roos for a couple of picks were really related to the rest of it. 2 picks. The for Motlop was about market value, we just somehow got something decent for Lonie.
 
Buddy and the Hawk said:
Not sure how linked Lonie to Port and the Motlop to Roos for a couple of picks were really related to the rest of it. 2 picks. The for Motlop was about market value, we just somehow got something decent for Lonie.
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Pelchen demanaded TWO first round draft picks for Hay. Motlop was getting one selection for North and they had there own first rounder, however Port wanted Lonie aswell as Motlop for Pick 14, we agreed to get the whole deal done.

Turned out well, as Lonie wasn't part of our plans anyway and under contract.
 
DannyJ said:
Pelchen demanaded TWO first round draft picks for Hay. Motlop was getting one selection for North and they had there own first rounder, however Port wanted Lonie aswell as Motlop for Pick 14, we agreed to get the whole deal done.

Turned out well, as Lonie wasn't part of our plans anyway and under contract.
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Ahh, good only Nathan, he could kick a ball, not much else. Still remember when Ryan got voted into the league's toughest players as a joke.
 
Shaun Burgoyne

Getting really excited about this guy and the way he is playing his football recently. He is looking like he is ready to explode just in time for September. He could be the difference in September for us.

He is a vital cog in the Hawthorn machine and here's to hoping he's cherry ripe heading into the finals :thumbsu:
 

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