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Skill/Luck

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sante

sante

Emu
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Oct 8, 2003
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Which plays the bigger role in doing well and even winning DreamTeam?

Has anyone ever won DT more than once? If so, Skill/Strategy must play a bigger role because you couldn't have the good luck for 2 years or more.

I reckon 'luck' plays the most important role, what are your thoughts?
 
sante said:
Which plays the bigger role in doing well and even winning DreamTeam?

Has anyone ever won DT more than once? If so, Skill/Strategy must play a bigger role because you couldn't have the good luck for 2 years or more.

I reckon 'luck' plays the most important role, what are your thoughts?
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I think skill is definatly the major factor in being successful in dream team. There is a different winner ever year probably because a small element of it is luck however the same sorts of people are up there every year e.g. the people in elite division 1 or whatever it is they call themselves (im not in it by the way so dw im not one of the guys who are in it and am just here talking it up) are always up their because of their skill and knowledge to know which players are dream team players and which players are not and who is going to do well. I think luck is a very small element which separates say someone who is ranked 1st and someone who is ranked 20th. Skill is the difference between someone ranked 1st and someone whos ranked 30000th. Just my opinion anyway
 
m.diddy said:
It's really a combo of both. This year i tried to be smart about the whole thing picking a few cheapies that are suppose to peak this year and it has killed me.
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part of the luck aspect will be in injuries. Your unlucky to have alot of injuries however skillful players will make the right trades to counter that and keep their team on track.
 

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Luck is more of a factor than it was last year, while skill isn't as important.

Last year's cap was good. It rewarded skill, because you couldn't fit as many guns into your team as this year. Most of the hype was around the 150-200k players, who were arguably more important than the guns you picked.

This year, it's just a case of who's guns were better. People made teams in 15 minutes that looked very very good. I was expecting a cap of around 6 mil, and when I found out it was pretty much 7, most of my plans went out the door.

Lowering the multiplier, as well as adding that extra 600k to the cap this year screwed up a lot of people's plans.
 
but didn't the price of player's this year go up a bit to counteract the cap increase?
 
in my opinion.. skills only really comes into the background research before round 1 starts.. after that most people do same trades in just different players out depending on how their individual players perform which is the luck of it
 
simplicity said:
in my opinion.. skills only really comes into the background research before round 1 starts.. after that most people do same trades in just different players out depending on how their individual players perform which is the luck of it
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Probably true to a degree. But that background research needs to be kept up all year to do well. For instance how many people got on J Brennan after the first 2 weeks, when background research was a good indicator it wasn't going to last?

Conversely, Chad Cornes started with two really poor rounds and looked ready to drop a lot in value, but some background research showed that he always scores poorly against Freo and the Roos but very strongly against Adelaide and the rest. I thought I would use that example because i made him captain for R3 and reaped the rewards.

Which brings me to my next point of captains. That is where skill and research are big separators. Sure you can jag a lucky captain several weeks, but researching past scores against opponents, at venues etc will generally pay off more times than not.
 

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Captain Pump said:
Probably true to a degree. But that background research needs to be kept up all year to do well. For instance how many people got on J Brennan after the first 2 weeks, when background research was a good indicator it wasn't going to last?

Conversely, Chad Cornes started with two really poor rounds and looked ready to drop a lot in value, but some background research showed that he always scores poorly against Freo and the Roos but very strongly against Adelaide and the rest. I thought I would use that example because i made him captain for R3 and reaped the rewards.

Which brings me to my next point of captains. That is where skill and research are big separators. Sure you can jag a lucky captain several weeks, but researching past scores against opponents, at venues etc will generally pay off more times than not.
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very true:thumbsu: well said! there is luck and skill involved in every move you make in dream team. Personally i say more skill
 
Skill garantees a top 500 position IMO. After that it is luck because there are so many 50-50's.

Some picks have me baffled though:

Why start Bartel? He has been consistent but not exceptional prior to this year, with Ablett, Chapman, Prismall & Selwood moving into the center he could have had less time in the middle. That one is a pure tin ass pick if you started him IMO.
 
DanA said:
Skill garantees a top 500 position IMO. After that it is luck because there are so many 50-50's.

Some picks have me baffled though:

Why start Bartel? He has been consistent but not exceptional prior to this year, with Ablett, Chapman, Prismall & Selwood moving into the center he could have had less time in the middle. That one is a pure tin ass pick if you started him IMO.
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Bwhahaha, clueless. Absolutely clueless. Bartel is the complete DTer. Tackles, Marks, Kicks, Goals.

Bartel FWIW kills all of them for midfield time so you have no idea.
 
Cassius_Clay said:
Bwhahaha, clueless. Absolutely clueless. Bartel is the complete DTer. Tackles, Marks, Kicks, Goals.

Bartel FWIW kills all of them for midfield time so you have no idea.
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I AGREE! the guy has been scoring well into the hundreds every week. Turns around and scores 89 one week and people start jumping up and down about how his values going to drop and his not that good. 89 is better than most players best scores for the season lol i agree bartels a gun and has a huge dream team carreer ahead of him!
 
magpies03 said:
I AGREE! the guy has been scoring well into the hundreds every week. Turns around and scores 89 one week and people start jumping up and down about how his values going to drop and his not that good. 89 is better than most players best scores for the season lol i agree bartels a gun and has a huge dream team carreer ahead of him!
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I meant from round 1. I agree this year he has been consistently great and will no doubt in my mind continue with it but other than being in consistent in the past why would you be attracted to him from the start? His form was not that great in NAB cup.
 
Cassius_Clay said:
Bwhahaha, clueless. Absolutely clueless. Bartel is the complete DTer. Tackles, Marks, Kicks, Goals.

Bartel FWIW kills all of them for midfield time so you have no idea.
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****er absolute ****er. I wasn't saying that they spend more time in the midfeild. I was saying that I expected them to spend more time in the middle which may have reduced his time in the middle. He is possibly the most consistent player over the last three years so why would you expect him to improve with a question mark over his time spent in the middle? I am saying there is no obvious reason for him to increase his average by 15 odd point.
 

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DanA said:
I meant from round 1. I agree this year he has been consistently great and will no doubt in my mind continue with it but other than being in consistent in the past why would you be attracted to him from the start? His form was not that great in NAB cup.
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yeh i guess its a chance you take i guess. i got him in my team. Had 2 98's in the first 2 rounds and then got 151. Coincidently at the end of round 3 i was fed up with goodes and decided to jump on bartel. couldnt be happier:) i see what you mean tho maybe hasnt been that consistant in the past but he sure is dominating this season:thumbsu:
 
DanA said:
****er absolute ****er. I wasn't saying that they spend more time in the midfeild. I was saying that I expected them to spend more time in the middle which may have reduced his time in the middle. He is possibly the most consistent player over the last three years so why would you expect him to improve with a question mark over his time spent in the middle? I am saying there is no obvious reason for him to increase his average by 15 odd point.
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Shows how little you know about your own club if you think Bartel's midfield time would have been reduced. Bartel is now at his prime. Its a real shame you didnt pick him up before Round 1 :)
 
DanA said:
I meant from round 1. I agree this year he has been consistently great and will no doubt in my mind continue with it but other than being in consistent in the past why would you be attracted to him from the start? His form was not that great in NAB cup.
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Lol @ Referring the NAB cup to a proven gun midfielder :rolleyes:

NAb cup form is only relevant when talking about rookies or younger players.
 
magpies03 said:
yeh i guess its a chance you take i guess. i got him in my team. Had 2 98's in the first 2 rounds and then got 151. Coincidently at the end of round 3 i was fed up with goodes and decided to jump on bartel. couldnt be happier:) i see what you mean tho maybe hasnt been that consistant in the past but he sure is dominating this season:thumbsu:
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I meant consistent. He has been very consistent in the past.
 

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