slipping backwards next year

[Hamburger]

Have enjoyed the reviews of players and team posted in other threads. And that got me thinking about next year. At this point, I cannot see where the KPP are going to come from that are so urgently needed.
In the long term, the prospects are there. But in the short term, I suspect it may take more than another 12 months to get the KPPs required settled and in place.
If you look at the other finalists this year, the one thing that stands out is how settled their lineups have been in attack and defence. Sure, there have been changes due to injury or form, but for the most part there are not too many changes, and the players nominated stand out as `fitting the need`.
Unfortunately, for much of the season, that did not seem to be the case with the eagles, particularly at CHB and CHF. There were times when it was not clear who was actually playing there.
My point is that when a side is unsettled, the players nominated for the back six, or forward six on any one day cannot be expected to show the same level of teamwork seen in other teams.
IMO this contributed enormously to the frustrating indecision shown at times by the defence, and the forwards as well. Perhaps Glass is not really that bad at decision making, its just that he and the other defenders have yet to really develop sound team play coming out of defence. That takes time. Same for the forwards. The number of times during the year when our forward thrust was dependent on Matera outmarking someone 10cm taller than him was disappointing, but maybe a refecltion of the unsettled nature of the forward setup.
My conclusion is that we may find that next year we actually slip back a bit in terms of results, but in the process are engaged in development of the right KPPs and the development of the right team play around them.
I m predicting we may slip to as low as 10th next year before coming on more strongly in 2005.
Hope I´m wrong about this.

 

[no1bankteller]

You make some really valid points about needing to develop an understanding amongst the playing group especially in defence.

I think that Glass or Staker (if he bulks up) could be our long term FB options and Gasper our CHB option. it is therore important that we surround them with a consistant group of players week in and week out.

My perfect backline line up would be:

Chick Glass Morrison
Hunter Gasper Wirra

If Morrison cannot be accountable then Wirra to be shifterd to BP and Collica given a shot at back flank.

If Gasper cannot cut it or gets injured then Jack to be given one last shot in defence, this would add some experiance to half back line)

I also hope you are wrong about us finihing 10th. I think we will be somewhere between 4-6 if we are lucky with injuries.

 

[iceman]

Chick would be a huge waste in a back pocket

But regarding the above points, our KPP are probably a bit behind in their development and next year is the time for them to be thrown in the deep end

 

[no1bankteller]

Originally posted by iceman
Chick would be a huge waste in a back pocket

I agree but we keep on getting burned by quick small forwards and can you see Farmer or Burns getting more then a kick or two on Chick.One could also argue that Chris Johnson is a waste in Brisbane backline but what a difference he makes.

 

[eagleskickass]

and on this point this is where i think we've lost out this year. Having seen this season i actually think we would have been better served to get some of our younger talls in this year to get them settled, gone backwards this year so next year we could go up again. Either way yes i think we will go backwards, maybe not ladder position wise but performance wise, before we go forwards. I still think we will make the 8 next year but we may, for the third year, make up the numbers. If you look back at when Lethal first took over Brissie i think it was 2-3 years before he got the results expected of him, then they just went boom. Wouldnt be surprised if a similar thing happened with us.

 

[zero]

we have a very young list, and with woosh at the helm we can reasonably expect those players to improve, look at fletch and embley to see the improvment he can wring out of players.

we have a really great top 7 (cuz, kerr, fletch, gardy, judd, embley and matera), but a few other players need to significantly improve if we are going to challenge.

im hoping a fit year for those seven and a big lift by the second tier (come on up into the bigtime samps, its sunny up here) to put us into real contention

 

[Mead]

This is really getting quite ridiculous.

We were bloody good for most of the season, we fell apart under a horrific run of injuries towards the end of the year. If there was a serious hole in our KPP stocks, it didn't stop us from being a top 2 side in the comp up until Gardiner, Fletcher and Embley went down.
But thats just luck. It happens. It would be nice if we had the depth to cover those sort of losses, but we didn't, and frankly, neither does any other team in the competition bar perhaps Port.

Our late season drop off does not in any way undermine perhaps the most fundamental truth of footy- a good midfield wins games. We didn't start dropping games because suddenly we didn't have any kpps of note- if anything Glass and McDougall both played their best footy during that last tough month. We fell away because our key midfield personnel couldn't get out on the park.

If our most important couple of players, (Gardiner/Embley) are fit and in form next year, there's no reason why we shouldn't
be a dominant side again even if McDougall, Glass, and the KPP hopefuls go AWOL. If 1/2 of Gardiner, Embley, Fletcher, Cousins, Kerr and Judd are taken out and shot before the season begins, then yes, surprise surprise, we might go backwards.

Where the key position issue does come in is in making us more resilient if the above happens again- if our midfield doesn't dominate, then we need to take on teams on their own terms, and that means winning the one on one duels up the spine. McDougall and Glass are solid, the other two positions are still a worry. This is one thing I do agree with eka about- this year, playing McIntosh and Jakovich was generally not smart- noone expected a flag at the start of this year, so wouldn't it have been better to have pensioned those guys off earlier, and given someone like McDougall or Lynch a solid 22 games under their belts?

It might seem like sacrilege, but I really worry about Jako playing on- he'll be an okay pinch hit at CHF for the year, then we'll be we'll be sitting here in 12 months time wondering where our KPPs are going to come from again. And as is the case with Hansen now, we'll probably be seeing Lynch or Gaspar pack up their boots and head east for lack of opportunity.

 

[Jabber]

No doubt Woosha took the ultra-conservative option when it came to KPP this year. People like Seira, Carroll, Wilson and to some extent Milli were selected for games that should have been used to blood some of our younger guys. Particularly home games earlier in the season when we still had excellent form. It was clearly apparent early on that people like Wilson & Carroll were not going to be up to scratch.

In the end Staker was forced to play late in the season when we were already in a hole, and Lynch and Hansen never even got a chance. What looked promising pre-season is a bit less attractive now.

Our midfield is now one year older and they still don't have anything to kick to - I expect no better than 8th next season, unless Gaspar & Gardy remain fit all season and we pull off a recruiting coup for a quality KPP.

 

[llosis]

Originally posted by Jabber
Our midfield is now one year older and they still don't have anything to kick to - I expect no better than 8th next season, unless Gaspar & Gardy remain fit all season and we pull off a recruiting coup for a quality KPP.

You don't think a young list improving plus a bit more luck with injuries can push us up the ladder a few more notches?

Apart from Jako, Banfield, Collica, Matera and a couple of others maybe it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect some improvement in each player (at least not a decline) so long as they remain fit.

 

[The Mission Man]

Worsfold did extremely well all year to hide the fact that you blokes don't have a forward line that will work well in pressure games. A small forward target is all well and good if your midfield is scoring plenty but they can't be expected to do so under extreme man-on-man conditions.

Look at the four remaining teams left in this finals series and tell me what they have in common.

Dominant tall marking forwards.

Lynch
Tredrea
Hall
Tarrant

add Rocca, O'Loughlin, Bradshaw and Cornes and you start to see who stands up in the finals.

You need a spine and you need it fast. Woosha should have played the kids down back and up forward.

 

[Jabber]

Originally posted by llosis
You don't think a young list improving plus a bit more luck with injuries can push us up the ladder a few more notches?

Apart from Jako, Banfield, Collica, Matera and a couple of others maybe it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect some improvement in each player (at least not a decline) so long as they remain fit.

I expect improvement, but you still need a spine. ATM we have Glass (should improve), Staker (should improve) & McDougall (will improve), with only Glass as a certainty in a particular position. We don't know where McDougall & Staker are going to be best suited to play. The jury is still out on Gaspar (injuries), Johnson & Seaby.

Improvement doesn't always equal results anyway

Lynch improved and didn't get a game.
Hansen improved, didn't get a game and is now leaving.

Virtually zero experience in our KPP. If Jako goes down next year, we may end up with a spine full of kids.

 

[Au_Blue#24]

Doogs, Gaspar, Glass, and Lynch hopefully are the 2004 spine.
Whilst conventional footy has been played this way, you dont need to look to far back to see methods incorporated resulting in success.

The roos won two flags in the 90,s but really didnt relly on the convention spine. They had carey and a million little blokes running forward on the slght chance carey didnt take a grab.

Towards the end of this season our forward structure failed - due to a lack of tall marking forwards. This structure was thought to have been successful until our midfiled went pear shaped.

Woosh is no dummy - we wont be seeing the same mistakes next year.

 

[The Mission Man]

I, of course, meant to say "Brown" not "Bradshaw". Anyway, the point remains.

 

[drexel]

There's no way we'll slip back unless we get a crippling run of injuries.
We probably have the most potential improvement of any club in the league. Meaning so far, we only have about 12 spots in our first 22 confirmed. The rest will be fought over and decided half way into 04. (usually teams with that situation are lucky to not be in the bottom 4)

Go and have a look at other clubs lists and see where they're going to improve.

ie. Freo... has a shortened list, full salary cap, injury free year. But apart from Polak, Sandilands and maybe Shammer in their first 22, their overall output wont be all that different to what you saw this year.

West Coast will be ready to win the flag by the end of next year.

PS. Our forward structure didn't fail toward the end of the season. That is a myth. The midfield dropped off mainly through the big 3 injuries we had and the defense was never much to begin with. At the end, Mcintosh was crippled and Wirra was absent.

 

[Exeter]

With a full side and playing at their best the Eagles were able to match it with any side in the comp, Crows being the notable exception.

We won against the Power, Lions, Pies, Dockers, and North and up until about round 16 we were genuine contenders until the wheels fell off.

We've seen what injuries do to sides like Brisbane and imagine what would have happened if the Dockers had lost Bell, Haselby and Pavlich at the business end of the season (and I'm not wishing it on them mind you) and you get some idea of the impact of losing Embley, Gardiner and Fletcher plus several others running with nagging injuries

While our list probably may not have the quality of the Dockers or Port or Brisbane, at least not yet anyway, I am confident that they will perform well next year and will be in the mix at the end. To my mind 2005/06/07 will be where we will peak and give it a real crack.

 

[Kenny_01]

Originally posted by drexel
There's no way we'll slip back unless we get a crippling run of injuries.
We probably have the most potential improvement of any club in the league. Meaning so far, we only have about 12 spots in our first 22 confirmed. The rest will be fought over and decided half way into 04. (usually teams with that situation are lucky to not be in the bottom 4)

Go and have a look at other clubs lists and see where they're going to improve.

ie. Freo... has a shortened list, full salary cap, injury free year. But apart from Polak, Sandilands and maybe Shammer in their first 22, their overall output wont be all that different to what you saw this year.

Considering on average we had the youngest senior side in the AFL this season, it's a fair assumption to think we will improve a fair bit.

 

[Ripper]

Good assesment Hamburger. The upside is if Woosha (and the Supporters) are patient and he picked his future best 22 and goes with them in round 1 then they will be working pretty well by the seasons end.

 

[Altum Volantes]

Yeah the Eagles might slip backwards next year, but hey so might every other team.

Look at Essendon in 1994, Collingwood in 1991 etc etc, it can happen to anyone.

The Eagles, as they showed this year, can take it up to most teams at their best, nobody from the group of players that managed that are confirmed to be absent from the club next year (yeah McIntosh but Milli was a bit player at best this year) at this point in time.

Your right, the young key position players are a wait and see thing, but as the old saying goes you can't make an omlette without breaking wind.

They'll get a chance to show what they've got, its a young team, plenty of players are still proving themselves, not just kpp.

I don't think theres any reason to be thinking the Eagles would go backwards next year, and that we should all look to the new season as another challenge and another year where nobody rates the playing group yet they still manage to perform better than the majority.

Oh and drexel, to use the Dockers as an example for a team thats not going to get any better is a very poor choice.
A team like Brisbane maybe (in relation to where they are now), but not a young up and coming team like Freo.

But hey, this ain't about Freo is it.

 

[drexel]

Originally posted by Black JuJu

Oh and drexel, to use the Dockers as an example for a team thats not going to get any better is a very poor choice.
A team like Brisbane maybe (in relation to where they are now), but not a young up and coming team like Freo.

Depends. Once a 22 is established, it's a bit much to expect great leaps forward from individual players.
Q. How much has Buckley, Cousins and Voss really improved since they were 21-22. Maybe some consistency but not peak performance.
Most players improve 5% each year naturally so it cancels out over the league, (Embley is a rare case) .
Next season we'll have 4-5 new players establishing themselves. Freo has 0 now that Webster got injured. Doesn't mean we will definately improve, but we have the potential to. Fremantle is COMPLETELY relying on natural improvement from their established side which is dangerous when you haven't won a final yet.

 

[Captain Random]

Even before we lost Embley, Fletch and Gardiner, the writing was on the wall. Geelong and Footscray both came to Subi and applied great physical pressure in the midfield, and nearly came away with the smarties as a result. When Port did this and smashed us, it was pretty apparent that we'd been well and truly found out.

We have no-one tall who can take a reliable grab down front. If we don't do something about this, we are going to struggle next year. It's that simple. Our defence is not nearly as big a problem, for mine.

 

[Altum Volantes]

Originally posted by drexel
Depends. Once a 22 is established, it's a bit much to expect great leaps forward from individual players.
Q. How much has Buckley, Cousins and Voss really improved since they were 21-22. Maybe some consistency but not peak performance.
Most players improve 5% each year naturally so it cancels out over the league, (Embley is a rare case) .
Next season we'll have 4-5 new players establishing themselves. Freo has 0 now that Webster got injured. Doesn't mean we will definately improve, but we have the potential to. Fremantle is COMPLETELY relying on natural improvement from their established side which is dangerous when you haven't won a final yet.

I can't agree with that, theres still a swag of players in that team that will be going into there 3rd-4th season (majority of the backline plus others).
That's like saying Dan Kerr ain't going to get any better (or 5% better...)
Webster ? - I doubt the Dockers were putting all there hopes for improvement on him.
Fremantle would be expecting to improve on their ladder position, and with good reason.

But hey, like I said this ain't about Freo is it ?

 

[Jabber]

Originally posted by carneagles
Even before we lost Embley, Fletch and Gardiner, the writing was on the wall. Geelong and Footscray both came to Subi and applied great physical pressure in the midfield, and nearly came away with the smarties as a result. When Port did this and smashed us, it was pretty apparent that we'd been well and truly found out.

We have no-one tall who can take a reliable grab down front. If we don't do something about this, we are going to struggle next year. It's that simple. Our defence is not nearly as big a problem, for mine.

I agree - if we can get the ball into the 50 often enough and have someone there who can grab it, it takes heaps of pressure off the defence and suddenly Glass looks quality.
Our midfield has to work much harder to manufacture goals for us than Collingwood or Brisbane for example, who have strong marking forwards. We are very lucky our midfield is so strong, but they don't compensate for lack of big forwards.

 

[Sera]

We have improved the last 2 years. It will be a big ask to improve for a third straight year but it can be done.

 

[drexel]

Originally posted by Black JuJu

That's like saying Dan Kerr ain't going to get any better (or 5% better...)
Webster ? - I doubt the Dockers were putting all there hopes for improvement on him.
Fremantle would be expecting to improve on their ladder position, and with good reason.

How much better was Daniel Kerr this year than last year?
Once a player establishes himself, everybody figures them out. The dyanamics of a team have to evolve to stay ahead or else other teams prey on deficiencies. Kerr could be Voss next year, but it wont mean as much to the team as getting a Jponathon Hay or someone.

 

[Voice of Reason]

Originally posted by carneagles
Even before we lost Embley, Fletch and Gardiner, the writing was on the wall. Geelong and Footscray both came to Subi and applied great physical pressure in the midfield, and nearly came away with the smarties as a result. When Port did this and smashed us, it was pretty apparent that we'd been well and truly found out.

We have no-one tall who can take a reliable grab down front. If we don't do something about this, we are going to struggle next year. It's that simple. Our defence is not nearly as big a problem, for mine.

Every team struggles at some stage of the season - unfortunately we timed our bad run to perfection, thanks mostly to injuries.

I think the defence is equally a problem as up forward and arguably we have fewer young players coming through there to stake a place. Good Finals teams do have marking forwards - but they also have defences that can rebound and launch attack from defence.

For example, how many games at the end of the season did we see the Eagles struggle to get any penetration from kickouts? And how many times have I seen Collingwood, Port, Brisbane & to a lesser degree Sydney work the ball from defence to goal at the other end?