So I've Done The Numbers

[stringerbell]

Hope is not lost!

At round 22 I have (on probable wins obviously)

St Kilda winning 6 more games
Geelong 5
North Melbourne 2
Richmond 6
Fremantle 7
Carlton 6 (I have us beating Richmond though, maybe not but we match up well against them, perhaps optimistic)

This has Fremantle making the finals as they will be one game clear and play Melbourne in round 23

Then we are even with Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong

Richmond play Port Adelaide, probable win
Geelong play Sydney, probable loss
Carlton play St Kilda, so one of us has to to win.

Might come down to percentage with Richmond, but obviously we have to beat St Kilda which is not easy. Beating Richmond is basically essential.

Remember we will have a full team in two weeks.

Anyone else done the numbers? What have you come up with?

 

[Azul]

Let's just focus on beating Collingwood.

Silly notion, I know.

 

[stringerbell]

Yeah, yeah. You can still make predictions.

We probably wont beat Collingwood though will we?

 

[Azul]

We probably wont beat Collingwood though will we?

Not with that attitude.

 

[mike ockerts]

Right now I have us 8th=40% 9th=60% 10th or worse=70% this could be my fury still raging from last night still evident.

 

[stringerbell]

Not with that attitude.

I wasn't aware my attitude dictated the performance of the team. Sorry guys, sack me instead

 

[Claypigeon]

Let's just focus on beating Collingwood.

Silly notion, I know.

Agreed. .. Each week from here on out is a pivotal game. ..

We'd have to turn things around relatively quickly. .. Can only really afford to drop two more games which is a huge ask. .. Last round could be the game but we still have to get there first. ..

 

[rp84]

I cannot see us winning 6 games. 2-3
Max. We are shot. We could finish anywhere between 10-14. The season is over. Blood the youth. Rest the injured. Trim the rubbish off the list. Trade underperformers.

Only about 25-30 guys are good enough to play for us now or in the next few years. At the bare minimum AJ, bower and thornton need to go. Russell will be traded Or delisted. Surely players like mcinnes, Mitchell, Dale etc couldn't do any worse.

Draft the best KPF with our top ten pick, then hard talented mids after that.

I was vehemently against changing coach mid season. Now, I'm not too sure. Our press is the easiest to get through in the comp. We have no fwd line structure or defence. We get carved at the contest over and over. This is as much coaching as personell.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Murphy should be back in time for Richmond. That'll release Robbo forward & Armfield back.
Need Hendo back ASAP if we're going to win any more games, has been Carltons best this year.
If this happens I reckon we're in with a pretty good shot

 

[BROWN20]

Hope is not lost!

At round 22 I have (on probable wins obviously)

St Kilda winning 6 more games
Geelong 5
North Melbourne 2
Richmond 6
Fremantle 7
Carlton 6 (I have us beating Richmond though, maybe not but we match up well against them, perhaps optimistic)

This has Fremantle making the finals as they will be one game clear and play Melbourne in round 23

Then we are even with Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong

Richmond play Port Adelaide, probable win
Geelong play Sydney, probable loss
Carlton play St Kilda, so one of us has to to win.

Might come down to percentage with Richmond, but obviously we have to beat St Kilda which is not easy. Beating Richmond is basically essential.

Remember we will have a full team in two weeks.

Anyone else done the numbers? What have you come up with?

Blues will not make finals, Collingwood,Sydney,Essendon,St Kilda at this time are all likely losses, l do not see us winning more than 10-11 games, this group has lost all direction which has been the case now for 7-8 weeks.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Draft the best KPF with our top ten pick, then hard talented mids after that.

Hmm, then send a note of thanks to 17 other clubs for allowing several hard and talented mids to slip through to our 2nd, 3rd, 4th picks. Is this realistic at all?

 

[stringerbell]

Blues will not make finals, Collingwood,Sydney,Essendon,St Kilda at this time are all likely losses, l do not see us winning more than 10-11 games, this group has lost all direction which has been the case now for 7-8 weeks.

I agree bar St Kilda which I think we have a shot at. You have to look at everyone else's run home as well, Geelong in particular have a horrible one.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Hmm, then send a note of thanks to 17 other clubs for allowing several hard and talented mids to slip through to our 2nd, 3rd, 4th picks. Is this realistic at all?

Definitely not realistic to expect those sorts after 2nd round.

What is realistic is the idea of getting some hard inside mids. I'd be happy if we just went for 3 of them. But to get the picks we need to offer up something worthy to get those picks.

Players who I'd offer:

Gibbs and Lucas.

If we could get a couple 1st rounders for them I'd take it and run. Use those 1st rounders and ours to get the 3 hard inside mids that we need from this year's mega draft.

I'd also be open to trading Garlett while he still might have SOME value left in him because I think it's all downhill from here for him.

 

[The Big Sticks]

Remember we will have a full team in two weeks.

 

[crizis]

how can anyone "see" us winning anything but 1 game. we have have lost 6 of the last 7 games weve played. i know we have/have had injuries and imo a poor coach but fact is a lot of our players have gone backwards and those that were ment to come on have stalled. on form the only legitimate claim for a win is gold coast in round 22 (also maybe the bulldogs because the also have no forward line).

 

[The Real Deal]

As strange as it may sound it might be better long term not to make the 8 this year as it will force the club to review what/who has gone wrong and go about fixing it. Personally I think the season it shot and we need to start planning for next season starting with looking at the coach, recruiting team, conditioning, board............

 

[scomac]

The problem now with the rebuilding scenario is the depth is so poor we have no stocks to trade.
Joseph,Bower,Russell. The only hope is to send Bower,Yarren and Garlett back to WA for Draft picks or sweeteners and delist the a fore mentioned our list has bugger all currency.

 

[kaiserchief13]

The problem now with the rebuilding scenario is the depth is so poor we have no stocks to trade.
Joseph,Bower,Russell. The only hope is to send Bower,Yarren and Garlett back to WA for Draft picks or sweeteners and delist the a fore mentioned our list has bugger all currency.

I'm sure WC would take Yarran. Maybe Yarran for Koby Stevens+3rd round pick or something like that?

 

[Aphrodite]

I'm sure WC would take Yarran. Maybe Yarran for Koby Stevens+3rd round pick or something like that?

Straight swap for Josh Kennedy.

 

[Wickzki]

I'm sure WC would take Yarran. Maybe Yarran for Koby Stevens+3rd round pick or something like that?

 

[kaiserchief13]

Well it's Carlton who are the ones who will instigate the trade so they will not get as much as they want. I couldn't see WC offering Stevens+2nd round pick.

 

[Aphrodite]

Well it's Carlton who are the ones who will instigate the trade so they will not get as much as they want. I couldn't see WC offering Stevens+2nd round pick.

Trade for what?

I wasn't aware Yarran was up for trade.

Is it trade week already?

 

[Wickzki]

Well it's Carlton who are the ones who will instigate the trade so they will not get as much as they want. I couldn't see WC offering Stevens+2nd round pick.

Why would we offer Yarran?

If West Coast want Yarran you can bet your life it'll be an A grade Victorian heading home.

 

[kaiserchief13]

Then it wont happen. I was just responding to scomac's post.

 

[scomac]

Then it wont happen. I was just responding to scomac's post.

sorry mate it was all a bit tongue in cheek and some of the Carlton old boys are a bit touchy.