Some thoughts on how the Lions got terrible, and how they could stop being terrible

[BRAB]

Been thinking for awhile we need to not put all our eggs in the fragile basket of 18-year-olds every year. They take time, which we don't have, and resources, which we also don't have, to develop. And then there's still a risk they could bust or fly the coup. Instead, we should be looking to draft one or two guys in their early twenties from the second tier leagues each year. The benefits are many:

• Mature bodies with several seasons competing against men already on the clock.
• Mature minds less concerned with issues like homesickness.
• A hunger to not waste the opportunity that they thought had long ago passed them by.
• Loyalty to the club that was prepared to take a chance on them.

In short, we should be trying to unearth more nuggets like Zorko.

I too agree that we should recruit more Zorko's

 

[Viceregal]

4) Bring Voss back as an assistant, after finishing this year at Port, and then 2018 at GWS or Western Bulldogs.

Would you mind expanding on how this fits into the 'how they could stop being terrible' framework?

 

[Carlos Danger]

I too agree that we should recruit more Zorko's

That be tough. Might need to pull a rabbit out of the hat there

 

[spotthedog1]

More that's what I think the Saints would ask. I'd like to see us get Armitage regardless, we can deal with price if it happens.

I think it's hard to quantify the damage solely to our club and the compromised draft affected a number of other clubs in a similar position to us. I thought about it, but it's hard to put into words what might have been had we drafted some of those GWS players, you wind up very quickly heading into fantasyland once you start doing that. I'm a historian, I prefer to stick what did happen. I know it's a factor but again, it's quite hard to quantify it.

I don't think there's much wrong with the players we have drafted. Yeo is a gun. Docherty, Polec and Karnezis have all been serviceable. Longer was a mistake. Burning picks 4 and 8 on two ruckmen in Leuey and Longer is about the only thing I can say we did that was particularly boneheaded, we missed the boat on the trend of just getting rookie rucks and developing them on the cheap.

I think the issue is far more the players we have for the draftees to learn and develop from, rather than the draftees themselves, hence my insistence that we need to get this facility built so we can actually start attracting in some good teachers and role models

Armitage is in free agent area. Surely they wouldn't ask for a 1st if he is 30. He's a solid B grade player. We could definitely use him, and I've no problem with him demanding some reasonable coin. But I think that a 1st rounder is several orders of magnitude over his actual value. We can't afford to give away 1st round picks for stopgap players (Armitage will be about 34 by the time we make finals).

It is hard to quantify the damage of the compromised draft, and the go home 5. I had a crack at the go home 5 a few years back. On the basis of the draft points system looking at the draft picks value of the players lost vs the compensation received, we lost more than 3000 points (which is pick 1) on those 5 alone. I'm quite happy to admit it's a flawed measure - it only judged players at their drafted value, not their actual value, but there's no way to determine their real fair value. The compromised drafts would be even tougher - we'd be either the biggest loser or close to it though...

Still, I think that both points have been huge factors in our demise. Was just surprised that they weren't really mentioned.

 

[Paul_D]

Armitage is in free agent area. Surely they wouldn't ask for a 1st if he is 30. He's a solid B grade player. We could definitely use him, and I've no problem with him demanding some reasonable coin. But I think that a 1st rounder is several orders of magnitude over his actual value. We can't afford to give away 1st round picks for stopgap players (Armitage will be about 34 by the time we make finals).

It is hard to quantify the damage of the compromised draft, and the go home 5. I had a crack at the go home 5 a few years back. On the basis of the draft points system looking at the draft picks value of the players lost vs the compensation received, we lost more than 3000 points (which is pick 1) on those 5 alone. I'm quite happy to admit it's a flawed measure - it only judged players at their drafted value, not their actual value, but there's no way to determine their real fair value. The compromised drafts would be even tougher - we'd be either the biggest loser or close to it though...

Still, I think that both points have been huge factors in our demise. Was just surprised that they weren't really mentioned.

Honestly I'm rubbish at remembering what costs what at trade time, I always forget when you need to offer something and when you can just outbid the other suitors

My argument though is that draft picks aren't actually worth that much to us unless they're spent on academy players who are more likely to stay - I'd rather pay slightly overs to get a guaranteed free agent then take a punt on the draft again.

You say we can't afford to give away 1st round picks for stopgap players - you are aware how many of our first round picks have left in recent years, right?

Compromised draft affected everyone, not just us. Again, I don't do hypotheticals. You can talk about it if you want to make a case for it.

 

[spotthedog1]

Honestly I'm rubbish at remembering what costs what at trade time, I always forget when you need to offer something and when you can just outbid the other suitors

My argument though is that draft picks aren't actually worth that much to us unless they're spent on academy players who are more likely to stay - I'd rather pay slightly overs to get a guaranteed free agent then take a punt on the draft again.

You say we can't afford to give away 1st round picks for stopgap players - you are aware how many of our first round picks have left in recent years, right?

Compromised draft affected everyone, not just us. Again, I don't do hypotheticals. You can talk about it if you want to make a case for it.

Fair view. I don't think we can make it to the finals on academy players alone. I think we need a few first rounders to stick before we can even come close.

 

[Messiah]

Sorry to intrude again - OP is well thought out.
I'd just like to say at the Crows Noble made his name via player trades more so than drafting. Betts (not really a trade), Lynch, Jenkins, Hartigan, Jacobs and Cheney were all successful trades. I'd be surprised if he did not try the trade approach again at the Lions, especially considering how unsuccessful recent drafting has been for you. Mature men who choose to go to Brisbane are far less likely to want to leave than boys from the draft with no choice on where they go.

The problems will be enticing the good players away from other clubs given the Lions' current plight. Promise of a new training facility will help. I see a distinct improvement this year as well. This is not being turned into wins but from several games I have seen this year your team has put up a fight and been in the game even into the last quarter (at which point they seem to run out of legs).

(FWIW missing out on Jenkins last year was a blessing in disguise. He is a soft player and having a poor season so far.)

If the Lions do manage to snag a few key players at the end of year I think competitiveness could even begin as early as next year to some degree.

 

[SizeMatters]

Sorry to intrude again - OP is well thought out.
I'd just like to say at the Crows Noble made his name via player trades more so than drafting. Betts (not really a trade), Lynch, Jenkins, Hartigan, Jacobs and Cheney were all successful trades. I'd be surprised if he did not try the trade approach again at the Lions, especially considering how unsuccessful recent drafting has been for you. Mature men who choose to go to Brisbane are far less likely to want to leave than boys from the draft with no choice on where they go.

The problems will be enticing the good players away from other clubs given the Lions' current plight. Promise of a new training facility will help. I see a distinct improvement this year as well. This is not being turned into wins but from several games I have seen this year your team has put up a fight and been in the game even into the last quarter (at which point they seem to run out of legs).

(FWIW missing out on Jenkins last year was a blessing in disguise. He is a soft player and having a poor season so far.)

If the Lions do manage to snag a few key players at the end of year I think competitiveness could even begin as early as next year to some degree.

How is Dear travelling? Could he be a Lion next year? Noble knows the Crows list very well. Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to lure some up here. I agree with what you said Noble knows we can't wait for youngsters to come on so I suspect he will be targeting the FA and trades aggressively. We are putting a lot of feelers out this year compared to last thats for sure.

 

[Messiah]

How is Dear travelling? Could he be a Lion next year? Noble knows the Crows list very well. Wouldn't surprise me if he tries to lure some up here. I agree with what you said Noble knows we can't wait for youngsters to come on so I suspect he will be targeting the FA and trades aggressively. We are putting a lot of feelers out this year compared to last thats for sure.

Dear was starting to show some good signs last year in the twos but this year he has gone backwards IMHO. I don't think he is anywhere close to senior selection.

I am actually pretty concerned Noble might try and poach a few of our players. No doubt he is on good terms with a lot of them and will have some influence. Maybe Fagan will be trying for a few from Hawthorn too.

 

[royboys4eva]

Enjoyed reading that Paul D. Good to hear from other passionate loyal Lions supporters. It really is hard to fathom year after year how our club has made so many costly mistakes and been so negligent.

All i can say is i think finally we have some decent people at the club in Swann - Noble and Fagan. For Chris Fagan to do his job well he needs a lot of help off the field and not just from his assistant coaches but he needs Swann to get the club new facilities that will appease the current list and not detract from future players coming here. Noble has a proven track record at the Crows and is a great appointment for me. He played for Fitzroy so has the passion to see the club do well and like Fagan is from Tassie and they seem to have a nice working relationship. Fagan while a very experienced assistant coach amongst other roles has never coached at AFL Level so is still learning on the job with the youngest team in the comp. It is said he a good teacher of young men and thats probably what our clubs needs more than anything at this precise moment. In time i think Fagan will himself improve as a coach and as the players develop under him and get more games into their young bodies. Simply we as supporters have to sit and wait and hope. We have been down this track before so its not easy to hear. Like everyone else i am getting fed up with losing every week. But every Monday i try to tell myself it's a long road and we have just started our journey. Their will be many barriers on this journey and i just hope we now have a team on and off the field that can get us back into the finals at least.

Just on the issue of getting senior players to the club. I was all for the likes of Armitage a couple seasons ago but i think he is just about done now. Is banged up and not worth the risk. I don't want Swallow he won't offer anything and far to slow. I came to the conclusion a while ago we are just going to attract players who can't get a game at their regular club. Unless we offer absolute silly money to someone we just cant and won't attract players until we become relevant again.

The club needs to have a clear and precise policy going forward and stick to it. Imagine it will be something along the lines of getting 3-4 players in the top 20 of the national draft for 3/4 years. If the draft depth is an issue outside of top 30/40 we should be looking at our academy players and seeing who is worth a spot.

Honestly the only players i want to see traded in are the type who will be here for the long haul and have their best footy ahead of them. Whether we can get them is another thing? Players like Nakia Cockatoo or Jacob Hopper. Young but been in the system a few years and will be playing their best footy in the coming years when we hope to be strong and relevant again.

 

[Paul_D]

Honestly the only players i want to see traded in are the type who will be here for the long haul and have their best footy ahead of them. Whether we can get them is another thing? Players like Nakia Cockatoo or Jacob Hopper. Young but been in the system a few years and will be playing their best footy in the coming years when we hope to be strong and relevant again.

It's a fair argument - I guess my view though is that given our pretty ordinary track record of development in recent years I think the players need some more seasoned heads out there - St Kilda persisted in using Schneider well after his best because of his excellent on-field coaching and guidance for the group, and the Dogs did the same with Giansiracusa before them. I think it's really underrated how much it helps to have that out on the field, it's so much more useful to a young kid than a message delivered via a runner. We are so far off the pace I don't think we can add players to make us capable of contending without first putting some players in to actually make us capable first. Let's take a few years to get this right and ensure we don't burn this current generation of kids out before their prime.

I was gutted we didn't make a bigger play for someone like Michael Barlow for example. He's one of the coolest cucumbers in the AFL with his decision making and he would have been a godsend for our young players. The Suns will benefit from that signing for years

 

[LongLion]

It's a fair argument - I guess my view though is that given our pretty ordinary track record of development in recent years I think the players need some more seasoned heads out there - St Kilda persisted in using Schneider well after his best because of his excellent on-field coaching and guidance for the group, and the Dogs did the same with Giansiracusa before them. I think it's really underrated how much it helps to have that out on the field, it's so much more useful to a young kid than a message delivered via a runner. We are so far off the pace I don't think we can add players to make us capable of contending without first putting some players in to actually make us capable first. Let's take a few years to get this right and ensure we don't burn this current generation of kids out before their prime.

I was gutted we didn't make a bigger play for someone like Michael Barlow for example. He's one of the coolest cucumbers in the AFL with his decision making and he would have been a godsend for our young players. The Suns will benefit from that signing for years

Yep Barlow would have been a handy pickup

 

[CarterS]

http://www.theroar.com.au/2017/05/30/long-path-towards-putting-pride-back-lions/

Article has appeared in The Roar. Looks familiar

 

[John_Proctor]

To make finals you first need a competitive team. And I don't think we'll have that without finding 1/2 of these on field coaches to help develop the kids.

Look at the gws v Gold Coast comparison. GWS have had Cornes, power, brogan, McDonald, Mumford, Johnson, shaw, through the list as mature recruits all players with physical and/or game presence and teaching capabilities. Make the kids walk taller.

Gold Coast had Ablett, harbrow, bock, rischi, Brennan. Hardly a leader amongst them.

 

[briztoon]

I completely agree that we need a couple of mature players to help Rocky, Beams etc. We also need a couple of quality, best 22 younger players in the 20 to 24 age range.

Unfortunately we lack the currency GWS had to acquire the such players.

However this might just be the draft to look to trade out a second round draft pick if we can acquire a player in the 26-27 year age group who can be best 22 for the next 4 or 5 seasons.

Not a chance would I consider giving up a first round pick for a player over the age of 22, unless he was a genuine top 5 on list quality type player.

 

[jjami15]

I completely agree that we need a couple of mature players to help Rocky, Beams etc. We also need a couple of quality, best 22 younger players in the 20 to 24 age range.

Unfortunately we lack the currency GWS had to acquire the such players.

However this might just be the draft to look to trade out a second round draft pick if we can acquire a player in the 26-27 year age group who can be best 22 for the next 4 or 5 seasons.

Not a chance would I consider giving up a first round pick for a player over the age of 22, unless he was a genuine top 5 on list quality type player.

Not too sure about this. Fagan has pretty well much said we have a mid tier that is below par and using a second rounder doesn't really get those top line players. can see our second rounder being used on Bellenden and possibly Ports pick on a player to trade in that is better quality.

 

[Eons]

Dear was starting to show some good signs last year in the twos but this year he has gone backwards IMHO. I don't think he is anywhere close to senior selection.

I am actually pretty concerned Noble might try and poach a few of our players. No doubt he is on good terms with a lot of them and will have some influence. Maybe Fagan will be trying for a few from Hawthorn too.

No doubt that will be the case. Heard any names mentioned that are of interest to us?

 

[Messiah]

No doubt that will be the case. Heard any names mentioned that are of interest to us?

Sorry, no.
I am just speculating - I do not pretend to have any contacts.

 

[moncon]

"even 12 months of a fading Mundy would be worth a lot more than 2 years of Bastinac or Bell"

Too right.

 

[troppo]

I remember as I travelled home on the bus after the "miracle on grass" I was still excited. It was probably the best game I have ever seen live. I told the family "Well I am pretty sure we have turned the corner, nothing but blue sky do I see.." Within weeks they had sacked Voss, 5 players walked out on the club and I have been sobbing into my rum and coke ever since. They say "It's darkest before the dawn, by hell it's dark now. How long till dawn?

 

[Gadzorks]

I remember as I travelled home on the bus after the "miracle on grass" I was still excited. It was probably the best game I have ever seen live. I told the family "Well I am pretty sure we have turned the corner, nothing but blue sky do I see.." Within weeks they had sacked Voss, 5 players walked out on the club and I have been sobbing into my rum and coke ever since. They say "It's darkest before the dawn, by hell it's dark now. How long till dawn?

I think we get a fake dawn at the beginning of September when our season ends. A moment off relief before the 2018 season plunges us back into darkness.

 

[tribey]

With that said, the first club I’d be hitting up is Port Adelaide. It’s no secret their salary cap is under pressure - Hamish Hartlett was publicly hung out in the shop window with no takers only last year - one year into a five year deal. On top of this they’re behind in the draft, with their first rounder this year coming our way. Offloading a player and the possibility of getting a pick back is a no-brainer for them and one player I’d like to see us ask about from them is Brad Ebert.

27 years old, off contract at the end of 2017. Has already changed clubs once, having come from West Coast so he’s no stranger to relocating. Some say he’s a bit one dimensional - perhaps at Port he is, surrounded by razzle dazzle talent, but at the Lions he would be a priceless asset. A durable, hard-running midfielder, setting high standards in attack and defence. Just had a new baby. Surely a good offer from the Lions, job security and the prospect of raising the kid in the warm climes of Brisbane could be appealing as he approaches the latter half of his career. More to the point he looks like the sort of guy who wouldn’t mind training at the Lions next year while the new facilities are still being built. I reckon we could get him for 4 years at around $500,000/year + sweeteners and unlike Chris Mayne he wouldn’t have any problems holding down a spot in the starting 22.

While I respect your rationale vis-a-vis our salary/free agent situation, Brad Ebert is literally the last person you'd prise from Alberton.

He and his family are Port Adelaide royalty.

He used to watch all of our games when he was at the Eagles. He returned after we'd just avoided the spoon on percentage and didn't have a pot to piss in. He and his wife have just had a baby boy and are ensconced here.

Was always coming home, is never going to leave.

The most likely target for oppo clubs is Pittard (Vic Country), who is talented, but obviously not the pay packet and position you need to make a dent in a concerted rebuild.

 

[Skoob]

While I respect your rationale vis-a-vis our salary/free agent situation, Brad Ebert is literally the last person you'd prise from Alberton.

He and his family are Port Adelaide royalty.

He used to watch all of our games when he was at the Eagles. He returned after we'd just avoided the spoon on percentage and didn't have a pot to piss in. He and his wife have just had a baby boy and are ensconced here.

Was always coming home, is never going to leave.

The most likely target for oppo clubs is Pittard (Vic Country), who is talented, but obviously not the pay packet and position you need to make a dent in a concerted rebuild.

So what. James Aish was Norwood royalty, and he wanted to come...never mind.

 

[luthor]

So what. James Aish was Norwood royalty, and he wanted to come...never mind.

I'll see your Ebert and raise you an Aish.

 

[Viceregal]

So what. James Aish was Norwood royalty, and he wanted to come...never mind.

I'll see your Ebert and raise you an Aish.

Sometimes the call of home is just too much to resist - just ask Mitch Clarke, James Aish, and young master Tippett (Kurt)