Spring Carnival - 1st October (Flemington)

[danielz_23]

Thoughts... Discussion... & Tips...

 

[skylark18]

The word is ...watch out for Eye Popper in either cups.

 

[jmain14]

really looking forward to tomorrow boys...

my selections are:-
race 2/number 1, 5/6 and 6/1 - all each way. also don't mind 7/4 as a bit of a roughie.

good punting.

 

[Deej]

is eye popper already here?

 

[danielz_23]

really looking forward to tomorrow boys...

my selections are:-
race 2/number 1, 5/6 and 6/1 - all each way. also don't mind 7/4 as a bit of a roughie.

good punting.

Not keen on 1 in Race 2... I think the 2 & 3 have a better chance and there isnt much else in the race. The 1 needs a firm ground by the look of its performances.

 

[PLSC]

hey guys is it better value to put your bets on at fixed odds or through tab racing.

 

[Tim56]

www.insiderail.com

It really depends PLSC. I would advise you to bet through someone like Sportingbet, where you have a number of options, but I know for a lot of people it isn't convenient etc.

It really depends what odds you think they should be, and your own judgment. e.g Virage De Fortune is $3.60 on fixed odds, I reckon you will get at least $4 tomorrow, in the ring, the tote, or both.

I think the following are good fixed odds value - which is to say I think they will be longer on fixed as they are now than the tote or with the bookies tomorrow.

Run Rita Run ($9)
Assertive Choice ($6)
Fumble ($13)
Ferocity ($4.60)
Pure Harmony ($17)
Lad of the Manor ($8)
Impaler ($7.50)

The following I think are unders - you will get a better price tomorrow

One In A Million ($2.40)
Jet Spur ($2.25)
Mummify ($2.50)
Mnemosyne ($2.40 - I think that is a fair price myself, but I think she will get out a little)
Perfectly Ready ($2.50)
Virage De Fortune ($3.60)

There is no real scientific element to this, just my thoughts.

I generally go to the track most weekends and have an arrangement with one rails bookmaker whereby I get Top Fluc odds.

A horse may open at $6.00, firm to $4.50, and ease to $6.50. Top Fluc guarantees you the best price irrespective of when you put the bet on. This can sometimes mean you get a less than 100% book - especially in Sydney, not so much in Melbourne. However, unless you are an especially big punter (which I'm not) or know people (which I do) this service is not routinely offered. It's nice if you can get it though.

 

[Rough_Edges]

Awesome odds on Plastered.

 

[eastaugh36]

Flemington
r1 n 4 & 9 Injebreck and Star Jester
r6 n12 Xaarhea
r9 n12 Cocinero
r10 n4 Niconero

Victoria Park
r5 n10 Demondo
r6 n2 Taos Pleasure

 

[Unwritten_Law]

I'm just having a couple of small EW bets for interests sake.

Dakasha in the third and Vouvray in the Turnbull stakes.

 

[Lockyer24]

Melbourne

Manifold Stakes
2 Isanami - 1600m plus, watch her fly home

Jayco Stakes
11 Diamond Hailey - 41/1 on Sportsbet, worth a 5er

Turnbull Stakes
6 Makybe Diva - will win this, but LOTM will win the Cox

Gilgai Stakes
13 Glamour Puss
16 Virage De Fortune
11 Raid the Royals - 12 Cocinero, 9 Foreplay into the tri's

Sydney

The Metropolitan
13 Above Deck - Good EW bet

Epsom
8 Binding - Has talent, time to show it! (call it blind faith)

Lexus-Flight Stakes
2 Mnemosyne - Just a superstar

PS Free to air is showing coverage from 3pm, bloody xmas to see some racing at home on the telly

 

[PLSC]

yeh feel the same way lock, we'll get to see 3 races from randwick and 3 races from flemington.


r6 - cayambe - will improve on dry track, watch out for xaarhea
r7 - ballet society - if its right should win easily
r8 - she's justa tad

 

[oreos]

R3- n7 Bugatti Royale
R4- n3 Activation
R6- n2 Insanami
R7- n1 Ballet Society
R8- n6 Makybe Diva
R9- n12 Cocinero
r10- n11 Rockford Bay

Quaddie- 1,2,3,13/6/8,9,12,13,16/4,5,11

 

[ducky18]

syd
r3 - 5
r4 - 5
r5 - 5
r6 - 6
r7 - 10/2
r8 - 2
r9 - 1

melb
r4 - 4
r5 - 2
r6 - 2/14
r7 - 1/3
r8 - 5/15
r9 - 16
r10 - 1/14

 

[Fall Out Boy]

I've only had three bets, all at value.

R5. 6 Airstream
R7. 15 Candy Vale
R10. 1 Lieutenant

Like one in the last at Murtoa, so if i get a collect on either of the first two i might head down and launch.

 

[Pantsless]

I'm on Airstream as well.

 

[Fall Out Boy]

I'm on Airstream as well.

It gave us a good sight, a 3rd would have been very nice though.

I've decided to use the one i like at Murtoa as my get out stakes. Horse is called Creswina.
Ran in the Vain Stakes then smashed a subsequent city class winner. It's had it's problems and i usually don't like horses stepping up from maiden to class 2, but this one has more scope than most.

If it wins i get out, if it loses it's just a bit worser a day than it was previously.

 

[Fall Out Boy]

I've decided to use the one i like at Murtoa as my get out stakes. Horse is called Creswina.
Ran in the Vain Stakes then smashed a subsequent city class winner. It's had it's problems and i usually don't like horses stepping up from maiden to class 2, but this one has more scope than most.

And it duly saluted paying $5.30

Should have been 6/4.

 

[Lockyer24]

I want to be a part owner of the 2YO that won race 1!

Had an okayish day, Backed Makybe and got the tri in the Turbull and also backed Sky Cuddle and Mummify. Finished about evens

Still think Lad will win the Cox. Nothing will beat the Diva at Flemington though

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Posted about a month ago that the Hayes stable will be back in a big way with David back from Hong Kong.

Obviously none of the better bred horses will be shipped off to Hong Kong anymore & David will weave his magic once again (no disrespect to Tony McEvoy) who did a great job while Davis was OS. Even a horse such as Barely A Moment has improved dramatically this time in, but it will be their younger horses to follow. They will become the Premier stable again within 2 years!!!

For the day my favourite mare Sky Cuddle was back to her best......... absolute weights special. Always produces her best come spring. That said another favourite of mine in that race Candy Vale was stiff definately one to follow throughout the Spring in whatever she runs in.

Didnt have another bet & just watched for later in the carnival.

 

[jmain14]

And it duly saluted paying $5.30

Should have been 6/4.

congrats on that tip phat - I wish I had of been online over the w'end!! would like to apologise for my $h!thouse tips on friday. airstream was the only one that gave value, just didn't find enough when it mattered most. still though, it's run was fair and it may pay to follow.

 

[Fall Out Boy]

congrats on that tip phat

Thanks mate, it certainly made my weekend bearable.

Trainer also had Creswina nominated for a listed race this week, so the $5.30 was pretty nice value.

airstream was the only one that gave value, just didn't find enough when it mattered most. still though, it's run was fair and it may pay to follow.

I'll stick with it.

I'm kinda attached to the stable anyway, but the horse has shown a lot of promise and will jag a good race at odds one day.

 

[flashback]

Posted about a month ago that the Hayes stable will be back in a big way with David back from Hong Kong.

Obviously none of the better bred horses will be shipped off to Hong Kong anymore & David will weave his magic once again (no disrespect to Tony McEvoy) who did a great job while Davis was OS. Even a horse such as Barely A Moment has improved dramatically this time in, but it will be their younger horses to follow. They will become the Premier stable again within 2 years!!!

For the day my favourite mare Sky Cuddle was back to her best......... absolute weights special. Always produces her best come spring. That said another favourite of mine in that race Candy Vale was stiff definately one to follow throughout the Spring in whatever she runs in.

Didnt have another bet & just watched for later in the carnival.

Tony did a great job?, what races were you watching