Mega Thread Squiggle 2017

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Final Siren, Feb 15, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Vintage

    Vintage Club Legend

    Fremantle
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Mar 06
    Posts:
    1,218
    Location:
    Perth
    Time for an update yet? Please?
     
    iluvparis likes this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. Roovolution

    Roovolution Premiership Player

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 16
    Posts:
    3,532
    No totals this year?
     
  3. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,213
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    Squiggle 1/1

    Go you good thing
     
    Headless and iluvparis like this.
  4. GreyCrow

    GreyCrow Brownlow Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Sturt, Redskins , White Sox
    Joined:
    Mar 16
    Posts:
    24,213
    Location:
    Down South Corvus Tristis
    Squiggle had Bullies winning by 17 points

    A month ago

    2/2
     
    vide0n, iluvparis, Headless and 3 others like this.
  5. Handsuper47

    Handsuper47 Club Legend

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 12
    Posts:
    2,249
    Oh man the squiggle! Life has been misery without you!
     
  6. ibd77

    ibd77 Club Legend

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 14
    Posts:
    1,008
    Location:
    Adelaide, South Australia
    Why isnt this thread pinned?
     
    _DBF_ and Roovolution like this.
  7. BallaratBulldog

    BallaratBulldog Premium Platinum

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Footscray VFL.
    Joined:
    Aug 07
    Posts:
    9,358
    Why isn't the site renamed bigsquiggle?
     
  8. LittleG

    LittleG Premiership Player

    Western Bulldogs
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Nov 15
    Posts:
    3,083
    Squiggle not going well today....


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    _DBF_ likes this.
  9. SJ

    SJ Moderator

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    32,991
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Neither have the rest of us - and we know a lot more than it.
     
    _DBF_ likes this.
  10. Dirty Bird

    Dirty Bird Pokémon Master

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    #BostonStrong #RiseUp
    Joined:
    Aug 10
    Posts:
    25,975
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Got the crows right despite what bookies thought...
     
    Roovolution and Danger Zone like this.
  11. Here2tellyouwhy

    Here2tellyouwhy SA GREAT

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    West Coast Eagles
    Joined:
    Sep 05
    Posts:
    16,171
    Location:
    Adelaide
    I picked the Crows that was one of the easy tips.
    One thing GWS have trouble with is scoring heavily without their midfield firing and they're missing a few.
    Crows will kick over 100 points almost every game this year.
     
    Roovolution likes this.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. FyfeToAdelaide

    FyfeToAdelaide Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 15
    Posts:
    1,884
    Squiggle currently has us only losing one game, geelong at Kardinia Park.
     
    Headless likes this.
  13. ams4crows

    ams4crows Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    T.Swift Huddersfield Town AUFC
    Joined:
    Apr 07
    Posts:
    5,511
    Location:
    Adelaide
    You could put your house on a Geelong to win that game.... Adelaide have only won there like 3? Times in 25 years!
     
  14. EagleShore

    EagleShore Premiership Player

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Feb 12
    Posts:
    3,483
    Location:
    Perth
    Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.

    Second was Adelaide - their convincing win against GWS even at home saw their attack move frighteningly straight up...commensurate slide on GWS's defence.
     
    Headless likes this.
  15. SJ

    SJ Moderator

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    32,991
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Actually it has Adelaide losing six games in total (it just doesn't know which ones). What you mean is it has Adelaide favourite in every game but one.
     
  16. FyfeToAdelaide

    FyfeToAdelaide Club Legend

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 15
    Posts:
    1,884
    I know what i mean.
     
    Paladin, 40porpoise, drazah and 5 others like this.
  17. MWPP

    MWPP Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 11
    Posts:
    5,411
    Location:
    Perth
    I had Port in my top 8 unlike many other people (and the Crows first )
    And tipped them both this round (Port as my upset , but still)
    But maybe even I underestimated them
    https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-ladder-predictions.1147631/page-223#post-49039083
    I also had the Pies in my top 8 (which, after their showing against the dogs , doesn't look too far off the mark )
     
  18. SJ

    SJ Moderator

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    32,991
    Location:
    Melbourne
    It doesn't have Adelaide losing only one game then.

    upload_2017-3-27_9-46-17.png
     
    BotsMaster and Tassie_Tiger like this.
  19. MWPP

    MWPP Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 11
    Posts:
    5,411
    Location:
    Perth
    FyfeToAdelaide is probably referring to individual games
    (Of course , squiggle counts a 0.51 chance of a win as 0.51 of a win- which is a much better way of doing it!)

    Round 23 is on a knife edge - 1 point win to Adelaide and yet 0.5 wins each :p
     
  20. SJ

    SJ Moderator

    Geelong
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    May 06
    Posts:
    32,991
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Yes exactly - I know what he means, but when he says "Squiggle currently has us only losing one game" that is actually incorrect and not at all what the Squiggle is doing. When the Squiggle tips a team it actually does not have it necessarily winning.
     
    tnk64, iluvparis and MWPP like this.
  21. lamby

    lamby Premium Gold

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Fulham
    Joined:
    Apr 08
    Posts:
    208
    Location:
    Melbourne
    But Port have always looked 'the best team in the comp' in a number of games a year. For the last couple of years they also look like they can't be bothered trying for more games than not. It is pretty easy to be up for the first game of the year. Let's see if Hinkley can get them 'up' more times this year.
     
    Matt Stevic likes this.
  22. Final Siren

    Final Siren Mr Squiggle

    Richmond
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    2,990
    Round 1, 2017

    [​IMG]

    What's better than beating the premiership favourite by 56 points? Doing it while the second premiership favourite goes down in a screaming heap at home to Port Adelaide!

    [​IMG]

    Last year, the Squiggle had a torrid love affair with the Crows, who offered a blistering attack of the kind the squiggle can't resist, and then, just when it seemed like all sizzle and no steak, and the squiggle's friends were like, "He's no good for you, he can't be trusted, and he rides a motorcycle," began delivering solid defensive efforts as well. Adelaide were Squiggle's Flagpole pick from mid-season right up until Round 23, when a catastrophic home loss to West Coast dumped them from 2nd to 5th. And two finals later, they were gone.

    But now they're back! And doing the exact same thing, lifting off vertically, by scoring more than expected while holding their opponent in check.

    Adelaide had the best week, but Port's was also huge. Sure, Sydney have a history of starting the season slowly, but they were still widely expected to account for the Power, and didn't. As a result, Port bounced right up into Top 8 territory:

    [​IMG]

    There are four teams there all on 11 predicted wins from 8th to 11th, so that will change very easily.

    Then there's Essendon, who answered the question, "So will the Bombers be much better this season?" with, "For now, yes!"

    West Coast, Melbourne, and Richmond also had great weeks. In particular, they kicked big scores, even moreso than the rest of the competition. That's a bit of a Round 1 trend; at least, if two years including this one can make a trend. Last year it faded away, with average scores winding up only a little above the long-term average.

    Gold Coast's week was the worst, despite the big comeback, since they dropped a game to the wooden spoon favourite and probably had the most disappointing result of the bottom 6. But Hawthorn's was pretty bad, too.

    Flagpole! This is a premier predictor that rates performances based on how similar they are to those from past premiership-winning teams. In practice, this mostly means that it cares more about attack than defense, since attacking teams have won a lot of flags over that period, while defensive teams have been coached by Ross Lyon.

    [​IMG]

    Live squiggle!

    P.S. Sorry for the graphical glitchiness that makes GWS and Adelaide's squiggle lines a bit thin this week. Will be better next week.
     
  23. nameless

    nameless Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
    Other teams:
    Arsenal
    Joined:
    Feb 06
    Posts:
    9,909
    Location:
    Melbs
    Woo - my bet of Adelaide to make the GF looking a lock.

    Spending my winnings tonight!
     
    Chief and Roovolution like this.
  24. Rotayjay

    Rotayjay Norm Smith Medallist

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Aug 14
    Posts:
    5,569
    Location:
    Adelaide, South Australia
    Last year I was happy to find favour with Lord Squiggle. But Lord Squiggle is fallible and the Bulldogs won the premiership from a less-than-ideal squiggle position. If sport was totally predictable and the 'technically stronger' side always won, we wouldn't watch sport.

    The win against GWS is cause for optimism, but Adelaide will be measured by their match-ups with flag contenders away from home, and (more importantly) finals. If they get there - no guarantees.

    The Crows have been a leading attacking side since 2014, when the current forward line was taking shape - Walker had just returned from his ACL, Podsiadly was still playing and Betts proving to be a terrific new acquisition.

    Fast forward to now, and when the Crows have a good game they usually get 5-10 goals out of the 'usual suspects' plus quite a few midfield goals. But then suddenly they have a game like the ones against Geelong or Rd 23 against WCE. The midfield gets smashed and the talented forward line is rendered a shadow of its usual self. The midfield goals disappear as well, obviously. That also happened when it really counted - in two consecutive semi-finals against strong midfields. Adelaide managed 61 points in the 2015 SF, and 82 in the 2016 SF.

    The challenge for Don Pyke this season will be maintaining the ruthless attack while preventing the still-questionable midfield from being beaten and thus choking the scoring. Being at the ground yesterday, I actually don't know how they suddenly kicked all those goals in the second half. It was a pleasant surprise, but there won't be that much time and space in September.
     
    dr miracle, davos44 and Brentmeister like this.
  25. Xtreme

    Xtreme Brownlow Medallist

    Hawthorn
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 06
    Posts:
    25,270
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Overly generous to Hawthorn..... unlike Mick and Carlton I fail to see where the Hawks will win a game this year... j/k :D

    Gotta keep fighting and turn things around after round 1.