Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Roovolution

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 22, 2016
6,770
9,393
AFL Club
Adelaide
That's a valid assumption if the models are better predictors than the bookies.

The real question is why there's a marked difference between the bookies and the models! There are quite a few R1 games like this. On the site, you can see that Punters (which are really bookies) are a lot more optimistic about Essendon's chances against the Hawks, for example, and more pessimistic about North's vs West Coast.

What's going on is information asymmetry: Punters know something the models don't. None of the models (I think) are sensitive to off-season personnel changes, so they don't know that Essendon is regaining a bunch of players as well as, perhaps, some self-belief and passion, nor do they know that North cut a bunch of veterans while West Coast acquired a player who's so good he won a Brownlow in the off-season.

So the Punters have an advantage over the models here, and I reckon they're probably more right. It's hard to beat the bookies at the best of times, and this isn't the best of times: it's been six months since the models last tasted fresh data, while human beings have had that time to think about just nine games. That's an advantage-humans situation. In a few rounds time, it should balance out, as we start to struggle to make intuitive sense of the mix of results, while the computers can go about processing it and forming objective conclusions.
No totals this year?
 

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EagleShore

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2012
3,827
4,055
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.

Second was Adelaide - their convincing win against GWS even at home saw their attack move frighteningly straight up...commensurate slide on GWS's defence.
 

MWPP

Magical Eagle
Jul 5, 2011
17,351
17,238
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
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Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.

Second was Adelaide - their convincing win against GWS even at home saw their attack move frighteningly straight up...commensurate slide on GWS's defence.
I had Port in my top 8 unlike many other people (and the Crows first )
And tipped them both this round (Port as my upset , but still)
But maybe even I underestimated them
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2017-ladder-predictions.1147631/page-223#post-49039083
I also had the Pies in my top 8 (which, after their showing against the dogs , doesn't look too far off the mark )
 

SJ

Moderator
May 22, 2006
33,038
15,966
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
FyfeToAdelaide is probably referring to individual games
(Of course , squiggle counts a 0.51 chance of a win as 0.51 of a win- which is a much better way of doing it!)
Yes exactly - I know what he means, but when he says "Squiggle currently has us only losing one game" that is actually incorrect and not at all what the Squiggle is doing. When the Squiggle tips a team it actually does not have it necessarily winning.
 

lamby

Premium Gold
Apr 12, 2008
285
670
Melbourne
AFL Club
Adelaide
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Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.
But Port have always looked 'the best team in the comp' in a number of games a year. For the last couple of years they also look like they can't be bothered trying for more games than not. It is pretty easy to be up for the first game of the year. Let's see if Hinkley can get them 'up' more times this year.
 

Final Siren

Mr Squiggle
Aug 18, 2009
3,687
15,432
AFL Club
Richmond
Round 1, 2017


What's better than beating the premiership favourite by 56 points? Doing it while the second premiership favourite goes down in a screaming heap at home to Port Adelaide!


Last year, the Squiggle had a torrid love affair with the Crows, who offered a blistering attack of the kind the squiggle can't resist, and then, just when it seemed like all sizzle and no steak, and the squiggle's friends were like, "He's no good for you, he can't be trusted, and he rides a motorcycle," began delivering solid defensive efforts as well. Adelaide were Squiggle's Flagpole pick from mid-season right up until Round 23, when a catastrophic home loss to West Coast dumped them from 2nd to 5th. And two finals later, they were gone.

But now they're back! And doing the exact same thing, lifting off vertically, by scoring more than expected while holding their opponent in check.

Adelaide had the best week, but Port's was also huge. Sure, Sydney have a history of starting the season slowly, but they were still widely expected to account for the Power, and didn't. As a result, Port bounced right up into Top 8 territory:


There are four teams there all on 11 predicted wins from 8th to 11th, so that will change very easily.

Then there's Essendon, who answered the question, "So will the Bombers be much better this season?" with, "For now, yes!"

West Coast, Melbourne, and Richmond also had great weeks. In particular, they kicked big scores, even moreso than the rest of the competition. That's a bit of a Round 1 trend; at least, if two years including this one can make a trend. Last year it faded away, with average scores winding up only a little above the long-term average.

Gold Coast's week was the worst, despite the big comeback, since they dropped a game to the wooden spoon favourite and probably had the most disappointing result of the bottom 6. But Hawthorn's was pretty bad, too.

Flagpole! This is a premier predictor that rates performances based on how similar they are to those from past premiership-winning teams. In practice, this mostly means that it cares more about attack than defense, since attacking teams have won a lot of flags over that period, while defensive teams have been coached by Ross Lyon.


Live squiggle!

P.S. Sorry for the graphical glitchiness that makes GWS and Adelaide's squiggle lines a bit thin this week. Will be better next week.
 

Rotayjay

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 28, 2014
7,824
13,666
Adelaide, South Australia
AFL Club
Adelaide
Last year I was happy to find favour with Lord Squiggle. But Lord Squiggle is fallible and the Bulldogs won the premiership from a less-than-ideal squiggle position. If sport was totally predictable and the 'technically stronger' side always won, we wouldn't watch sport.

The win against GWS is cause for optimism, but Adelaide will be measured by their match-ups with flag contenders away from home, and (more importantly) finals. If they get there - no guarantees.

The Crows have been a leading attacking side since 2014, when the current forward line was taking shape - Walker had just returned from his ACL, Podsiadly was still playing and Betts proving to be a terrific new acquisition.

Fast forward to now, and when the Crows have a good game they usually get 5-10 goals out of the 'usual suspects' plus quite a few midfield goals. But then suddenly they have a game like the ones against Geelong or Rd 23 against WCE. The midfield gets smashed and the talented forward line is rendered a shadow of its usual self. The midfield goals disappear as well, obviously. That also happened when it really counted - in two consecutive semi-finals against strong midfields. Adelaide managed 61 points in the 2015 SF, and 82 in the 2016 SF.

The challenge for Don Pyke this season will be maintaining the ruthless attack while preventing the still-questionable midfield from being beaten and thus choking the scoring. Being at the ground yesterday, I actually don't know how they suddenly kicked all those goals in the second half. It was a pleasant surprise, but there won't be that much time and space in September.
 

Xtreme

Hall of Famer
Jul 21, 2006
34,718
26,860
Melbourne
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Overly generous to Hawthorn..... unlike Mick and Carlton I fail to see where the Hawks will win a game this year... j/k :D

Gotta keep fighting and turn things around after round 1.
 

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