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That's a valid assumption if the models are better predictors than the bookies.
The real question is why there's a marked difference between the bookies and the models! There are quite a few R1 games like this. On the site, you can see that Punters (which are really bookies) are a lot more optimistic about Essendon's chances against the Hawks, for example, and more pessimistic about North's vs West Coast.
What's going on is information asymmetry: Punters know something the models don't. None of the models (I think) are sensitive to off-season personnel changes, so they don't know that Essendon is regaining a bunch of players as well as, perhaps, some self-belief and passion, nor do they know that North cut a bunch of veterans while West Coast acquired a player who's so good he won a Brownlow in the off-season.
So the Punters have an advantage over the models here, and I reckon they're probably more right. It's hard to beat the bookies at the best of times, and this isn't the best of times: it's been six months since the models last tasted fresh data, while human beings have had that time to think about just nine games. That's an advantage-humans situation. In a few rounds time, it should balance out, as we start to struggle to make intuitive sense of the mix of results, while the computers can go about processing it and forming objective conclusions.
Why isnt this thread pinned?
Neither have the rest of us - and we know a lot more than it.Squiggle not going well today....
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Got the crows right despite what bookies thought...Squiggle not going well today....
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I picked the Crows that was one of the easy tips.Got the crows right despite what bookies thought...
You could put your house on a Geelong to win that game.... Adelaide have only won there like 3? Times in 25 years!Squiggle currently has us only losing one game, geelong at Kardinia Park.
Actually it has Adelaide losing six games in total (it just doesn't know which ones). What you mean is it has Adelaide favourite in every game but one.Squiggle currently has us only losing one game, geelong at Kardinia Park.
Actually it has Adelaide losing six games in total (it just doesn't know which ones). What you mean is it has Adelaide favourite in every game but one.
I had Port in my top 8 unlike many other people (and the Crows first )Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.
Second was Adelaide - their convincing win against GWS even at home saw their attack move frighteningly straight up...commensurate slide on GWS's defence.
FyfeToAdelaide is probably referring to individual games
Yes exactly - I know what he means, but when he says "Squiggle currently has us only losing one game" that is actually incorrect and not at all what the Squiggle is doing. When the Squiggle tips a team it actually does not have it necessarily winning.FyfeToAdelaide is probably referring to individual games
(Of course , squiggle counts a 0.51 chance of a win as 0.51 of a win- which is a much better way of doing it!)
Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.