No totals this year?That's a valid assumption if the models are better predictors than the bookies.
The real question is why there's a marked difference between the bookies and the models! There are quite a few R1 games like this. On the site, you can see that Punters (which are really bookies) are a lot more optimistic about Essendon's chances against the Hawks, for example, and more pessimistic about North's vs West Coast.
What's going on is information asymmetry: Punters know something the models don't. None of the models (I think) are sensitive to off-season personnel changes, so they don't know that Essendon is regaining a bunch of players as well as, perhaps, some self-belief and passion, nor do they know that North cut a bunch of veterans while West Coast acquired a player who's so good he won a Brownlow in the off-season.
So the Punters have an advantage over the models here, and I reckon they're probably more right. It's hard to beat the bookies at the best of times, and this isn't the best of times: it's been six months since the models last tasted fresh data, while human beings have had that time to think about just nine games. That's an advantage-humans situation. In a few rounds time, it should balance out, as we start to struggle to make intuitive sense of the mix of results, while the computers can go about processing it and forming objective conclusions.
I picked the Crows that was one of the easy tips.Got the crows right despite what bookies thought...
I had Port in my top 8 unlike many other people (and the Crows first )Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.
Second was Adelaide - their convincing win against GWS even at home saw their attack move frighteningly straight up...commensurate slide on GWS's defence.
FyfeToAdelaide is probably referring to individual games
Yes exactly - I know what he means, but when he says "Squiggle currently has us only losing one game" that is actually incorrect and not at all what the Squiggle is doing. When the Squiggle tips a team it actually does not have it necessarily winning.
But Port have always looked 'the best team in the comp' in a number of games a year. For the last couple of years they also look like they can't be bothered trying for more games than not. It is pretty easy to be up for the first game of the year. Let's see if Hinkley can get them 'up' more times this year.Big mover in the squiggle was (no big surprise), Port Adelaide. Beating Sydney was massive for that club and I for one had them falling further down the ladder. Time will tell all stories but clearly they were the biggest winner.