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Starting without Ablett/Swan

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Butler

Butler

Norm Smith Medallist
Ruby Dream Team Club Board Championship League Member
Sep 24, 2010
7,380
8,057
AFL Club
West Coast
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Phili Eagles + Sixers
It was a fairly big talking point during the offseason with many people believing starting without one or even both of them was suicide and wouldn't work. 6 rounds in and it's time for a bit of a review.

Swan
Starting price: $688,100
Average: 117.5
Price +/-: -$72,700
Round 7 BE: 150

Ablett
Starting price: $642,500
Average: 112.33
Price +/-: 59,900
Round 7 BE: 127

Other players that may have been considered who are averaging around about the same:

S.Selwood
Starting price: $503,500
Average: 113.65

Murphy
Starting price: $522,000
Average: 108.83

Stanton
Starting price: $548,900
Average: 110.57 (including last weekends subbed score)

Pendlebury
Starting price: $568,700
Average: 110.33

Now I started without Ablett and brought him in at $590k in round 5 and was very happy with it but others could have benefited a lot more.

Starting with Selwood and Murphy instead of Swan and Ablett would have saved $305,100 for 104 less points overall.

On top of having an extra $305k to spend on upgrades, those who started without them also have the advantage of bringing them in significantly cheaper.

Of course, there is more to it than that. Getting the right cheaper premium is difficult and very hit and miss (Dangerfield, JPK etc) and being able to make the upgrade to Swan/Ablett early enough in the season isn't the easiest thing to do. But the strategy is a valid one that can work and would have worked for many if they stuck to their guns.

It should also be noted that the coach currently coming 3rd overall, still doesn't have Ablett in their side.
 
At various stages I had both in my side pre season but decided not to take Ablett.

Would never have been ballsy enough to not take either as I enjoy having a lock and load captain as evn when I have that should move my captain feeling I don't and it saves a lot of self harm :)

Have been really happy with not starting Ablett.
 
I think that in hindsight I wouldn't have started with either...

However with the way I'm going, I would have just screwed up that additional cash and would be no better off and not had either in my team.... This way I know I have two of the best mids you can get, from the off, without any problems...
 

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Its a little bit results oriented to pick just say Murphy, Scooter, Stants, Pendles etc... as you mentioned.

Its just as easy to get JPK, Cotchin.

I think there were definitely merits to starting with both or one but starting either neither rids you of a failsafe captaincy option and reduces exposure to having a shocker of a week when you take a bit of a risk with a Jobe type captain.

If there weren't captains in the game I probably wouldn't have started with either of them.
 
I started without Swan. I thought his price was hugely inflated but then Dangerfield decided not to play to his potential. So I had a dummy spit and paid the extra amount just so I could have a premium averaging over 100 every week. I brought him in round 3, 25K cheaper but still pretty pricey. I stand by my decision
 
I started with both for peace of mind and I don't regret it. This year has been a ball-breaker so far and having Swan and Ablett good for 100+ every week and the C on Swan I don't have to think too much about them. There's too many other problems with injuries and suspensions and bad F**king decisions (Hartlett:mad:) to worry about saving 70k on Swanny and burning a trade to get him in the side, because ultimately at some stage you have to have him and/or Ablett.
 
I initially had Scott Selwood over Swan so I am a bit annoyed about that one. I didn't really think Swan would be worth that price but was convinced by numerous posts on this forum about how essential it is to have him.
 
The main point is that with the stupid number of trades you have this year you can afford to trade in non-top 8 midfielders for example and trade up to the top end. Previously trading in a player like a Watson, Barlow or Hanneberry would be considered a terrible move as it would waste a trade and you'd still need to be trying to trade them out before the end of the year.
 
I started without either which I'd like to say would have been a success however it was the other premiums I put in my side over them that failed even more (Dangerfield and Deledio) which in the end didn't make it such a winning move.

Like I said all pre season, they held no value at all and were always going to take a price hit at some stage early on, but I didn't expect the other premiums who I expected to rise (or at worst maintain their 2012 average) got backwards by just as much/more than Swan/Ablett which forced me to move them whereas the likes of Swan and Ablett are still some of/if not the best averaging midfielders.
 
entourage said:
I started with both for peace of mind and I don't regret it. This year has been a ball-breaker so far and having Swan and Ablett good for 100+ every week and the C on Swan I don't have to think too much about them. There's too many other problems with injuries and suspensions and bad F**king decisions (Hartlett:mad:) to worry about saving 70k on Swanny and burning a trade to get him in the side, because ultimately at some stage you have to have him and/or Ablett.
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I agree wholeheartedly with this.
This is my 1st year, and of course I picked both Swan and Ablett :rolleyes:.
To me getting the right cash cows is more important. I screwed myself worse by not checking which rookies were playing Round 1, and messing that up is worth much more than that 70k. Hello- picking up Longer instead of Matt Jones in rd1 has cost me 200k + a wasted trade. I figured I could just trade Longer to Burger straightaway, but Bam! Immediately had to deal with Waters issue, so that loss is huge.

In hindsight, it feels like the best move is still to start with one, cos you can easily cover that loss by getting the right rookie on the bubble, but the risk management of having 1 is huge with the 2 trade system.
 
Swan and Ablett are both in the top 5 avergaes so far this season - I pay for that certainty
If you try and go for a Scooter type you could have failed and picked Dangers, Fyfe, Shuey etc - Swan and Ablett are locks

A side note i'm happy with my midfield selections this year.
Swan, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles all in the top ten or so averages, all except Dangerfield were great picks for me.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Swan and Ablett are both in the top 5 avergaes so far this season - I pay for that certainty
If you try and go for a Scooter type you could have failed and picked Dangers, Fyfe, Shuey etc - Swan and Ablett are locks

A side note i'm happy with my midfield selections this year.
Swan, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles all in the top ten or so averages, all except Dangerfield were great picks for me.
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Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Moloney, JPK, Cotchin is what I started with. I'm especially happy with Moloney, he did exactly what he was supposed to, solid 85+ avg for his cheap buy in, but he'll be upgraded very soon. I let go of JPK early, but only cos I needed cash. Cotchin only did poorly this week, but otherwise has been solid, he'll come back in soon enough since Deledio is struggling hard with the tag.
 

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I started Swan but planned to downgrade him to another premium around rounds 3-4, but then half my team decides to get injured or spud it up early on so I've been forced to stick with him.
 
If you are league-focused, I think it's a mistake to start both of them. You need one of them to be perma-captain the first however many weeks, but they are both pretty much guaranteed to drop close to 100k at the start of every season so it's the smarter play to pick up the 2nd one cheap. I wish I started Swan this year and kept Ablett on the sidelines. Ablett puts so much energy into trying to teach his team, Swan is a greedy little piggy who wants the ball as much as possible. If you're going for overall ranking it seems suicidal to not start with both, especially now that there isn't a 3rd player who is even close to these 2 (Boyd used to be)
 
LanLion said:
I agree wholeheartedly with this.
To me getting the right cash cows is more important. I screwed myself worse by not checking which rookies were playing Round 1
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Haha yeah. Last year was my first and I was trading out non-playing rookies for a good part of the year :oops:

I started with both Ablett and Swan because they're sure things. Even though they've gone down in price it doesn't bother me too much, got to look at your keepers for the season in entirety. If I could redo knowing what I do now, of course you'd plan to get Cornes, Selwood, Swallow etc. instead.

FlowersByIrene said:
Swan, Ablett, Murphy and Pendles all in the top ten or so averages, all except Dangerfield were great picks for me.
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Same. Those guys will be top ten at the end of the year barring injuries or suspensions. With dreamteam being so fickle at times a bit of reliability is worth its weight in gold.
 

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I didn't start with either of them, and I'm glad that's the move I made. They may be consistent and a shoe in for a decent Captain score, but I was able to pick up O'Meara, Wines and Moloney before the season started for almost the price of Swan or Ablett individually.

I've since upgraded Moloney to Masten, but he did assist with building up a base for the cheaper end of my midfield.
 
Happy I started with them

Whichever way you look at it, it will always be hard to bring either of them in whether they are at a reduced price or not. Plus peace of mind goes a longggggg way.

I also think it looks as though now would be a good time to pick them up with all the rookies hitting full price and Swan & Ablett's lowered price, but there are so many guys losing money (or at base price) in these next few weeks - Birchall, Franklin, Gibbs, Hartlett, Bartel, Robinson, Daisy, Watson, Stanton .etc. that it is going to be very difficult to pick them all up on the cheap
 
I noticed there was a few good value mids, which is why i i went with those instead of Swan & Ablett. Reasonably happy that i went with Gaz, Cotchin, Pendles, Mitchell, Murphy and used the extra money elsewhere. Others which floated in and & out my side pre-lockout were Montagna and Fyfe
 

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Starting without Ablett/Swan

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