Strange Hypothetical

[Roundhouse]

If you had a choice, which of these two scenarios (over a six year period), which would you choose for your club.

Scenario A
Year : 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053
Position: ? 9th 10th 1st 10th 9th 10th ?


Scenario B
Year : 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053
Position : ? 2nd 3rd 2nd 3rd 2nd 3rd ?
Some points to clarify.

• The club's position at either end of the five year period is unknown. It could be first, or last, or anywhere in between.
• It is concerned with a random six year period in the future because this is not about your club's list at the moment. It is about defining success, and how you measure it.
• All current AFL rules regarding drafts and trading apply.
• I realize that there are heaps of unknowns, and that this is reason enough to reserve your opinion. Fair enough.
• It is clear that neither scenario is ideal.
• Am interested to read what all posters (from any clubs) have to say.
• Most importantly! Please state why when giving your choice.

Cheers!
RH

Edit- Position indicates the clubs position after the finals have been concluded, not after the home and away season.

 

[Reveler]

if you mean after the finals we'd be first, i.e win the premiership... then I'd take number 1.

if you mean after the H&A season, then i'd take 2.

 

[Roundhouse]

if you mean after the finals we'd be first, i.e win the premiership... then I'd take number 1.

if you mean after the H&A season, then i'd take 2.

Yeah sorry, I will clarify that. I meant after the finals.

 

[Corpuscles]

Scheizenhausen !!!!! 2046.... long range forecast that one.... Freo probably wont ....well maybe.... have to wait that long?

You are new to footy? not to green padocks tho?

Your senario A is unrealistic... find one example in history that matches that.... a team needs to be thereabouts and challenging several times before it cracks the big one

Senario B (if for 2-3 years) is franchised exclusively... all sown up .....by Colliwobbles!

Good luck Freo.... nows the time! next 2-3yrs)

 

[Roundhouse]

Scheizenhausen !!!!! 2046.... long range forecast that one.... Freo probably wont ....well maybe.... have to wait that long?

You are new to footy? not to green padocks tho?

Your senario A is unrealistic... find one example in history that matches that.... a team needs to be thereabouts and challenging several times before it cracks the big one

Senario B (if for 2-3 years) is franchised exclusively... all sown up .....by Colliwobbles!

Good luck Freo.... nows the time! next 2-3yrs)

You are a moron!

Read the post. It is not about Freo. It is a hypothetical, not a likely scenario or a prediction.

 

[Jimbob]

You are a moron!

Read the post. It is not about Freo. It is a hypothetical, not a likely scenario or a prediction.

If it's not about Freo post it on the main board!

 

[Kildonan]

As much as I'd like to just grab the premiership and run, I would vote for (2).

My reasoning: Most clubs have to be thereabouts for several seasons to win a premiership. The second scenario suggests long term competitiveness and potentially could earn them a premiership or several in the near future.

 

[heypenny]

I think I would prefer scenario 2…

It would hurt not winning a premiership, but things would have to be going right for the club to be in the top 4 on a regular basis…

It would show prosperity in the club that would probably eventually bring about a premiership…

 

[Roundhouse]

If it's not about Freo post it on the main board!

I'll do whatever I want ..GOSH!

Cheers St Kildonan and heypenny, you've proved it's not that hard to understand. Good posts!

 

[ImperialPurple]

If it's not about Freo post it on the main board!

he's a Freo supporter posting on the Freo board. You are just a blow-in weevil troll so why don't you go forth and procreate. No-one is asking you to be here.

 

[Corpuscles]

You are a moron!

Read the post. It is not about Freo. It is a hypothetical, not a likely scenario or a prediction.

So

1. As has been stated already then ... post on main board or Bay 13
2. I know it was not a prediction..... it deserved what it got!
3. "Not a likely senario".... why would anyone comment seriously on a hypothetical which is unlikely?
4. The hypothetical could be better stated as something along the lines of ....." would you prefer your team to have missed top 8 over 6 years but snag an isolated flag in between or be consistently close but not get one".... see no need for funny substances!


gee I hope I grow up to be as smart as you

Signed
Moron

PS. Maybe ....Dogs Saints Dees Cats Tiggers fans might prefer an isolated flag... the pressure is mounting.... but the others would probably prefer to be thereabouts in your senario as you never know what might happen in the 7th year.... Freo are new and more difficult to understand....

Good luck Einstein!

 

[Ysaye]

Scenario 2 Roundhouse. That club is a successful and always competitive club, probably both on and off the field.

But for what it is worth, I don't think many clubs go from around 10th to 1st then back down again - very hard to make that jump. Most jump from the bottom 4 to top 4 then premiership then jump down again.

I haven't gathered any data to prove that such a Markov chain exists, but if we keep the same draft system and don't introduce a free agency I think there will be one day enough data to suggest that.

 

[Roundhouse]

So

1. As has been stated already then ... post on main board or Bay 13

2. I know it was not a prediction..... it deserved what it got!
3. "Not a likely senario".... why would anyone comment seriously on a hypothetical which is unlikely?
4. The hypothetical could be better stated as something along the lines of ....." would you prefer your team to have missed top 8 over 6 years but snag an isolated flag in between or be consistently close but not get one".... see no need for funny substances!


gee I hope I grow up to be as smart as you

Signed
Moron

PS. Maybe ....Dogs Saints Dees Cats Tiggers fans might prefer an isolated flag... the pressure is mounting.... but the others would probably prefer to be thereabouts in your senario as you never know what might happen in the 7th year.... Freo are new and more difficult to understand....

Good luck Einstein!

Why are you being a pest.

Your last point in particular shows that you still don't get it.

It wouldn't matter if you are a Dogs supporter or a Weagles or Swans supporter. It is deliberately in the distant future, so you don't know if your club has won recent premierships prior to this period or not. There is no pressure or lack of pressure, and it doesn't matter which club you follow. It is personal choice. It is asking which would YOU prefer.

If you still don't get it, then just go away. If you do get it, I would like to hear your choice and reasoning.

Cheers.

 

[Roundhouse]

Scenario 2 Roundhouse. That club is a successful and always competitive club, probably both on and off the field.

But for what it is worth, I don't think many clubs go from around 10th to 1st then back down again - very hard to make that jump. Most jump from the bottom 4 to top 4 then premiership then jump down again.

I haven't gathered any data to prove that such a Markov chain exists, but if we keep the same draft system and don't introduce a free agency I think there will be one day enough data to suggest that.

Cheers Ysaye!

Although scenario A is possible, I realize that it is not a likely outcome. However, I deliberately used 9th (and 10th) because it is generally regarded as probably the worst position to finish in (if you are talking about a maintained position over a number of years) because this position gives your club no finals exposure and the worst draft selections of all the non-finals teams.

 

[Roundhouse]

Actually, I just posted this, with a few changes, on the main board.
I tried to make it a bit clearer.

Maybe you could lock this one Ripper or Sabre?

Cheers

 

[bushie]

I would take scenario A, because even though a sustained run of finals appearances are nice, the whole thing is about winning flags. And if the numerical order continued as it was we would win a flag every 8 years.

I base this on the 2 unknown years in scenario B as being down years ie: outside the 8 and never winning a flag.

Does that make sense??

Probably not.

 

[Ripper]

I would take the flag every time.

 

[Borry]

A flag's a flag. I'd take the flag definitely. Not the option which would see us as genuine chokers.