- Aug 20, 2010
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There's discussion happening in the JLO thread about strategy and game plan - I was surprised this didn't have its own thread as I think it deserves one. The whole AFL world is currently in a copy Collingwood mode, but you can't beat an opponent at their own game, it's usually a failing strategy. So what's going to happen in 2024?
I'm not in the AFL industry, but let's try to understand what's going on as regular punters. There are four ways in AFL in which to score, which I'll combine into two:
The head coach must select a strategy that complements the squad he has. If we look at Collingwood, we see that McRae has clearly put together a game plan where they win via score from turnover. That means they have excellent intercept ability, they intercept in areas where they can quickly counter attack, and they have the players that support the plan and can slingshot the ball rapidly. Think of Moore and Howe as the key interceptors, then they have De Goey, Crisp, and the Daicos brothers cutting teams up with power and pace through the middle. In essence, if you lose the contest to Collingwood, you've already lost the game, as they're beating you with their secondary priority. If you assume they're the best at scoring from turnover, then the only hope you have to beat them is to heavily dominate contest and play fast out of stoppage to prevent them from getting the team defense set up.
If you look at the 2nd team from last season, Brisbane, who are much more similar to Freo, they play the strategy of dominating contest, they have Neale, Dunkley et. al to win the ball at the source. They then focus on holding the ball in their forward line and forcing stoppage after stoppage. You may say, but they have Andrews and Coleman etc. to play the turnover game, well yes exactly, they have the ability to play both styles well, but they're definitely a contest first team. If your team can dominate at both scoring avenues, then you're going to be in premiership contention, as we see with Brisbane and Collingwood.
So to Freo, break down what the club has been banging on about since forever. We're a contest first team. Our priority is going to be to dominate stoppage. We have on paper a strong midfield unit, Darcy as a dominant tap ruckman feeding Fyfe, Serong, Brayshaw, Johnson, Young etc. This is also why we haven't valued wings as highly as a team that prioritises scoring from turnover. We actually want to have the additional inside mid on the short side to support winning the contest, and a fat side winger who will sacrifice his game some weeks, running up and down the field tirelessly. This is what Acres did brilliantly in 2022, he ran all day and provided an option on the fat side. That will be Sharp's job this year. But this position does not make or break our game plan, first and foremost, we must win stoppage.
Does this mean that Freo will take no risk trying to score from turnover? No it doesn't. All they're saying is that scoring from turnover is not the primary objective.
In summary, don't expect us to play like Collingwood. If we try to do that with the team we have, you'll get a worse result than what we saw last season. We don't have the midfield or wings to play like that. If we do well this year it will be because we're scoring from centre bounce like we did in 2022. That's what is so exciting about having Fyfe, Young, and Johnson looking powerful, we might just get back what made us so good in 2022. If you want to beat teams like Collingwood, you have to beat them at the contest and keep the ball out of their hands. Try to score as much as you can from centre bounce, and if you don't manage that, play in such a way that if you turn it over, they can't smash you on the rebound. Turn it over in safe areas.
End of essay haha.
I'm not in the AFL industry, but let's try to understand what's going on as regular punters. There are four ways in AFL in which to score, which I'll combine into two:
- Scores from stoppage (let's combine this with scores from centre bounce); and
- Scores from turnover (again, let's include scores from kick-outs, which are slightly different).
The head coach must select a strategy that complements the squad he has. If we look at Collingwood, we see that McRae has clearly put together a game plan where they win via score from turnover. That means they have excellent intercept ability, they intercept in areas where they can quickly counter attack, and they have the players that support the plan and can slingshot the ball rapidly. Think of Moore and Howe as the key interceptors, then they have De Goey, Crisp, and the Daicos brothers cutting teams up with power and pace through the middle. In essence, if you lose the contest to Collingwood, you've already lost the game, as they're beating you with their secondary priority. If you assume they're the best at scoring from turnover, then the only hope you have to beat them is to heavily dominate contest and play fast out of stoppage to prevent them from getting the team defense set up.
If you look at the 2nd team from last season, Brisbane, who are much more similar to Freo, they play the strategy of dominating contest, they have Neale, Dunkley et. al to win the ball at the source. They then focus on holding the ball in their forward line and forcing stoppage after stoppage. You may say, but they have Andrews and Coleman etc. to play the turnover game, well yes exactly, they have the ability to play both styles well, but they're definitely a contest first team. If your team can dominate at both scoring avenues, then you're going to be in premiership contention, as we see with Brisbane and Collingwood.
So to Freo, break down what the club has been banging on about since forever. We're a contest first team. Our priority is going to be to dominate stoppage. We have on paper a strong midfield unit, Darcy as a dominant tap ruckman feeding Fyfe, Serong, Brayshaw, Johnson, Young etc. This is also why we haven't valued wings as highly as a team that prioritises scoring from turnover. We actually want to have the additional inside mid on the short side to support winning the contest, and a fat side winger who will sacrifice his game some weeks, running up and down the field tirelessly. This is what Acres did brilliantly in 2022, he ran all day and provided an option on the fat side. That will be Sharp's job this year. But this position does not make or break our game plan, first and foremost, we must win stoppage.
Does this mean that Freo will take no risk trying to score from turnover? No it doesn't. All they're saying is that scoring from turnover is not the primary objective.
In summary, don't expect us to play like Collingwood. If we try to do that with the team we have, you'll get a worse result than what we saw last season. We don't have the midfield or wings to play like that. If we do well this year it will be because we're scoring from centre bounce like we did in 2022. That's what is so exciting about having Fyfe, Young, and Johnson looking powerful, we might just get back what made us so good in 2022. If you want to beat teams like Collingwood, you have to beat them at the contest and keep the ball out of their hands. Try to score as much as you can from centre bounce, and if you don't manage that, play in such a way that if you turn it over, they can't smash you on the rebound. Turn it over in safe areas.
End of essay haha.
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