Swans - Finals Predictor

[Leg End]

I have just done the predictor for the run home - taking the following very conservative view:
1. If we lose to Bombers, St Kilda, Geelong (and win against Richmond, Lions), we will run 7th and play Saints in first final then Hawks/Geelong in next.
2. If we beat Bombers on Sat, then same result but home final against Saints.
3. even if we won all 5 remaining, same result.

Not bad for a developing list - great experience for young blokes. We are pretty well placed. hopefully - 4 quarter showing against Bulldogs indicates we're satrting to gel.

NOTE: This all conditional upon Razor Ray or the other showponies not trying to raise their profiles in our remaining games a la Freo game.

 

[SM]

For a team that finished 5th last year with improving young talent and not a huge amount of old players leaving? I'd call it a backwards step myself. I genuinely thought we'd push for top 4 this year. Granted Bradshaw and Bolton out was a huge blow, but guys like White, Everitt, Rohan, and others who were meant to pick up the slack/improve haven't been able to either through injury or patchy form. That's a dissapointing year for mine.

The worst part is that we have nowhere near the injury list of an Essendon or Freo, if we incur that next year we could well be Bottom 4, and that's not good at all.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I have us thumping Collingwood in the Prelim before beating West Coast in the GF by 3 points.

 

[SM]

I have us thumping Collingwood in the Prelim before beating West Coast in the GF by 3 points.

Don't be ridiculous. One point. After the siren. Kicked by White who takes an absolute screamer of a contested mark.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

I've done the predictor this afternoon also. We finished 6th, had us winning the next 3 games against Essendon, Richmond and St.Kilda, as well as the Brisbane one in the final round. Even if we lose to Essendon, we should still make the finals, providing the only game we lose is to Geelong.

But this is a crunch game without a doubt, win this, a finals spot is almost guaranteed. Massive game for us.

 

[SM]

I've done the predictor this afternoon also. We finished 6th, had us winning the next 3 games against Essendon, Richmond and St.Kilda, as well as the Brisbane one in the final round. Even if we lose to Essendon, we should still make the finals, providing the only game we lose is to Geelong.

But this is a crunch game without a doubt, win this, a finals spot is almost guaranteed. Massive game for us.

Then we'll lose. Every crunch game this season, we've lost.

 

[TheGoatBaron]

Time to turn that form around then, huh?

Our away record this season is quite good, so hopefully, that evens the ledger a bit.

 

[Dangas]

...I just want to break the Cats streak down at Kardinia

 

[SM]

...I just want to break the Cats streak down at Kardinia

This. So much this.

 

[swansfan51]

I predict we won't win the premiership, so our position is utterly irrelevant except for draft picks

 

[SM]

I predict we won't win the premiership, so our position is utterly irrelevant except for draft picks

What a disgusting attitude. Every finals game is a bonus.

 

[Syd]

Don't be ridiculous. One point. After the siren. Kicked by White who takes an absolute screamer of a contested mark.

It'd have to be a helluva leap to make it to Melbourne from Canberra!

 

[SOPH_CROSS]

...I just want to break the Cats streak down at Kardinia

Yep me too and im going to the game so it would be more sweeter than ever

 

[Leg End]

For a team that finished 5th last year with improving young talent and not a huge amount of old players leaving? I'd call it a backwards step myself. I genuinely thought we'd push for top 4 this year. Granted Bradshaw and Bolton out was a huge blow, but guys like White, Everitt, Rohan, and others who were meant to pick up the slack/improve haven't been able to either through injury or patchy form. That's a dissapointing year for mine.

The worst part is that we have nowhere near the injury list of an Essendon or Freo, if we incur that next year we could well be Bottom 4, and that's not good at all.

Stats, can't agree.

Losing Bradshaw and CBolton has meant our structure all year has been all over the place. This is like Carlton losing Judd/Kreuzer. Fair dinkum, one of our key forwards has been LRT!

Injuries? we have lost KJack, Mummy, Rohan for long periods plus Bradshaw and CBolton - pretty damaging for a list looking for structure.

Every premiership winner needs a few years to gel their team. This is what we're doing now.

I think it's been a pretty good transitional year with another bunch of first years playing.

 

[S120]

I'm with those who will consider this year a success if we make the 8 again. Had Bradshaw remained fit and played a good majority of our games I would have been hopeful of making the top 4. But without him it was always going to be hard to manufacture a forward structure that would be able to kick enough goals. We're starting to put one together that is anchored around a 19 yo however.

A top 6 finish will be a good year for us and a top 8 finish will about par for the course IMO.

 

[MF]

As long as you're in the finals anythings possible. Any team is beatable on any given day.

 

[Leg End]

As long as you're in the finals anythings possible. Any team is beatable on any given day.

So true.
One guarantee - no team really wants to play Sydney in the finals. Our tackling, hardness at the ball and "never give up" attitude always has us in with a chance.

 

[The King!]

I think at the very least other teams around us will keep us in with their own poor results.

The main disapointment in 6-8 finish compared to last year is the feeling that carlton and west coast both went past us more so than wether we went backwards ourselves

 

[Leg End]

I think at the very least other teams around us will keep us in with their own poor results.

The main disapointment in 6-8 finish compared to last year is the feeling that carlton and west coast both went past us more so than wether we went backwards ourselves

Actually no.

Again, if West Coast suddenly found out "you've lost the big Nic, Cox and Kerr" for the year, they'd be pretty pelased with top 6.

 

[Bonz]

...I just want to break the Cats streak down at Kardinia

I just hope we loose by less than 100....

And this year has been a success, Our injuries would of stricken most clubs (Except maybe Collingwood...)

Our kids have shown great development and have really stepped up a level or two in my opinion,
(Rohan was developing nicely before injury,
Reid... No explanation needed,
Johnson I bet has surprised everybody,
Smith has been looking more solid than ever,
Parker has exceeded most of our expectation,
Hanners has picked up after a slow start to the year.
Gordon, Has exceeded my expectations and whilst he has shown allot in the reserves he even broke in for a few games.
LJ, Has broken even and gained versatility (I still think he has more potential than anyone on our list (Yes I know that is a dirty word...)

All of this is without mentioning Lamb who is going to be brilliant in our forward line in the future. (I am really disappointed he has been injured... But this should of allowed him to gain some weight.)

The one thing that has been disappointing has been the lack of development in some of our Mid tier players
(Moore (I really rate but its obvious the coaching staff don't),
TLD (Mature age recruit in his second year... Took some time to get his defensive pressure right and once the coaching staff seemed happy was stricken by injury),
Jetta (Whilst he has improved hasn't really stamped his authority on a game yet.. (I have liked him as our sub though)),
White (Is an explanation needed?_
Bevan, (Really thought he would have a full time role in our forward line this year..)

Wait a year or two and watch us shine!!!

 

[potatomasher]

I'm on board with just wanting to break that streak. We haven't been the giant-killing team we used to be, but if there was a game where I want us to pull something from our rectums it is that one.

As far as finals are concerned, you can be realistic and say we won't make a huge impact, and we might win our first one but that'll be it, or you can be a proper supporter blinded by optimism and say we can win the whole thing. I know I'll be devastated if we get knocked out, regardless of how on the cards it may be.

While beating the Bulldogs comfortably isn't the most incredible result ever, there was something about that result the other supporters don't know. It was Goodes' best game for the year. If Goodes keeps firing for the rest of the year, and based on his usual trend he will, we're a team worth worrying about.

 

[YorshireSwan]

Stats, can't agree.

Losing Bradshaw and CBolton has meant our structure all year has been all over the place. This is like Carlton losing Judd/Kreuzer. Fair dinkum, one of our key forwards has been LRT!

Injuries? we have lost KJack, Mummy, Rohan for long periods plus Bradshaw and CBolton - pretty damaging for a list looking for structure.

Every premiership winner needs a few years to gel their team. This is what we're doing now.

I think it's been a pretty good transitional year with another bunch of first years playing.

Cant say I 100% agree with this comment, whilst I agree that losing them has definately been a loss for us but we did finish 5th last year with very minimal availability from both of them therefore I agree it is not unreasonable that our expectation should have been to push for a top 4 berth or finish 5 again having moved closer to the top 4 teams and push well into September.

I do think that key injuries to KJ, Gaz and Mummy (and his suspension) have just reinforced to us how integral they are to our team.

Personally I am disappointed that we are not in contention for a top 4 spot and that teams such as West Coast have gone past us by some distance pushing us backwards to a probable 6-7th finishing spot, in saying that there is very good upside to the year with the development of the younger players (Reid/Johnson), all I hope is that they continue on their development next year unlike some (White/Jetta) who have not progressed as far as I would have liked this year.

 

[BarneyBent]

While I'm not disappointed with us this year (barring a couple of performances), it's a bit rich to say the loss of Bradshaw and Bolton have had a negative effect. They were always going to be a bonus at best, and there's no doubt the team would have approached this season as if they were already gone.

 

[legend166]

I think it's just as important to look at the amount of wins as well as the ladder position. We got 13 wins last year, and we currently sit on 9 and a half. If we beat Essendon, Richmond and Brisbane, we'll end up half a win behind last year. If we snag a win against St. Kilda, we'll end up ahead.

I think if we're stagnate again next year we'll have the right to whinge.

 

[22Hama]

Is this year really about winning or losing? Even in the finals? I think it's amazing that we've been able to sustain some semblance of form given the players that we've turned over. I'm just keeping my eyes on our young blokes, making sure that they're playing well and learning and developing. Our great strength over the last 15 to 16 years has been developing a side and keeping it successful. If we maintain that and recruit well in key positions another premiership will come!