Opinion The 80/20 rule

[PTpie]

The Pareto Principle. The law of the vital few.

Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.​

Do you think this holds true for Footy? As in, do 20% of the players contribute to 80% of the result? It is a fascinating thought really. We have so many super star players in the league as a whole but no more than 3 or 4 at most at any one club, with another 3 or 4 on the cusp. So on a list of 47 that means 9 players are going to make or break your season.

If thats the case (and for the sake of the discussion/debate) who are your 20% at Collingwood that will be making up the 80% of the results in 2015?

1. S Pendlebury
2. T Cloke
3. S Sidebottom
4. J Elliott
5. L Greenwood
6. B Reid
7. L Keeffe
8. T Adams
9. J Witts

 

[Baird]

Replace Keeffe with Brown and Adams/Witts with Swan

 

[Horaceg]

The Pareto Principle. The law of the vital few.

Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.​

Do you think this holds true for Footy? As in, do 20% of the players contribute to 80% of the result? It is a fascinating thought really. We have so many super star players in the league as a whole but no more than 3 or 4 at most at any one club, with another 3 or 4 on the cusp. So on a list of 47 that means 9 players are going to make or break your season.

If thats the case (and for the sake of the discussion/debate) who are your 20% at Collingwood that will be making up the 80% of the results in 2015?

1. S Pendlebury
2. T Cloke
3. S Sidebottom
4. J Elliott
5. L Greenwood
6. B Reid
7. L Keeffe
8. T Adams
9. J Witts

There's a guy called Dane Swan on our list, not sure if you forgot him?

 

[jefffff34]

In teaching there is also an 80%/20% rule. It means that 20% of your class take up 80% of your time with their behavioural issues.

I'm sure Buckley has experienced this recently with Lumumba, Shaw, etc.

 

[PTpie]

There's a guy called Dane Swan on our list, not sure if you forgot him?

Swanny is in an interesting period of his brilliant career right now. If he is fully fit and can play anything close to his best he is in the top 10 players in the competition. If however injuries continue to dog him or he has lost a bit of pace it will decrease his effectiveness significantly as per last year.

Personally I'd prefer the club ease the load on the great man. Play him forward 40% of the game or more and let the young blokes do the hard stuff. Bring him back to the coal face when the going gets tough and we need something. Lets not accelerate the natural deterioration of this champion by putting him in a position where he will be bashed game in game out.

So that is why he didn't make it into my 9 players. I suspect they will ease him into the season and try and reduce the physical beating he takes each game. This will reduce his numbers but may well increase his overall effectiveness on each game and will surely prolong his career. The club right now needs Swanny on the park until the 2017 season for his experience as much as his talent.

 

[DrDavoren]

Maybe Dane wants to be in the middle, understand the team needs and getting quality time into youngsters.

I can remember him looking disinterested when being placed upground a year back, more than likely was just being frustrated with his injuries at that stage.

Here's hoping for him to be back to his old self and play 60+% in the middle while resting around half forward the rest.

We will still have a good mix in the centre even without Beams providing Swan can improve on last year.

 

[Captivating]

In sports, it's more likely the quality of the other 80% that has a bigger impact on success. The top 9 players across all teams are most equal. Can we extract the final 20% from the same core group of players or are we going to have to have to use the whole list and have a unusable line up from one week to the next.

 

[Horaceg]

Swanny is in an interesting period of his brilliant career right now. If he is fully fit and can play anything close to his best he is in the top 10 players in the competition. If however injuries continue to dog him or he has lost a bit of pace it will decrease his effectiveness significantly as per last year.

Personally I'd prefer the club ease the load on the great man. Play him forward 40% of the game or more and let the young blokes do the hard stuff. Bring him back to the coal face when the going gets tough and we need something. Lets not accelerate the natural deterioration of this champion by putting him in a position where he will be bashed game in game out.

So that is why he didn't make it into my 9 players. I suspect they will ease him into the season and try and reduce the physical beating he takes each game. This will reduce his numbers but may well increase his overall effectiveness on each game and will surely prolong his career. The club right now needs Swanny on the park until the 2017 season for his experience as much as his talent.

I think we will see a big return from Swanny this year, in the guts or more time up front as long as we see his best again. Awesome to watch!

 

[THATSGOLD]

The Pareto Principle. The law of the vital few.

Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.​

Do you think this holds true for Footy? As in, do 20% of the players contribute to 80% of the result? It is a fascinating thought really. We have so many super star players in the league as a whole but no more than 3 or 4 at most at any one club, with another 3 or 4 on the cusp. So on a list of 47 that means 9 players are going to make or break your season.

If thats the case (and for the sake of the discussion/debate) who are your 20% at Collingwood that will be making up the 80% of the results in 2015?

1. S Pendlebury
2. T Cloke
3. S Sidebottom
4. J Elliott
5. L Greenwood
6. B Reid
7. L Keeffe
8. T Adams
9. J Witts

Dare say that list drops away at 4 compared to some of the better teams like the Hawks in the comp.

 

[soreplums]

I'm confident that Swan's 2015 will be much like previous seasons other than 2014. Like to see him on the wing using his running power and having spurts in the centre and up forward.

 

[ace andy]

In sports, it's more likely the quality of the other 80% that has a bigger impact on success. The top 9 players across all teams are most equal. Can we extract the final 20% from the same core group of players or are we going to have to have to use the whole list and have a unusable line up from one week to the next.

I disagree with this. I think its the bottom end that is equal across clubs. The only difference is players look better with better players around them. Goldsack and Blair were both bottom end of the 22 in 2010. Same as now but everyone thinks they are crap at the moment when in 2010 they were awesome depth. Don't be fooled. The difference is hawthorn have far more A and B graders than us.

 

[ace andy]

I might add that sometimes great teams win without stars playing and its hailed as proof their depth is great. But in the case of Hawthorn this year and St kilda in 2009-2010 I believe that is more psychological thing that only lasts a few weeks. For example the players are in a winning team and high on confidence. They doesn't disappear over night when 3 A graders get pulled our of the team due to injury. However after a few months of having to fill the boots of better players the team usually starts to lose.

Besides there are different types of depth. No one in the AFL has real depth of talent. As in if hodge gets injured. No one is coming into hawthorns side that is a good as Hodge. And bottom end depth is easy to attain. For example I don't think there is that much difference between 20-28 on our list. So if the bottom few get injured it doesn't matter. But if Pendles and Cloke are injured we are in big trouble.

 

[motr]

Dare say that list drops away at 4 compared to some of the better teams like the Hawks in the comp.

Definitely, but did our perceived top end talent run much deeper at the start of 2010. Probably when you look at that team in retrospect, but what about the 2010 preseason.


Swan
Pendlebury
Didak
Cloke
Ball
Jolly
Shaw
Thomas
Davis


It was our even spread of talent that separated us from the rest.

 

[IQ3]

I'm of the belief that your worst 5 players on the park win or lose you games.

 

[Reykjavik]

I'm of the belief that your worst 5 players on the park win or lose you games.

I think your bottom 5 are the ones who can lose you a game you might otherwise have won, and your top 5 are the ones who can win you a game you might otherwise have lost.

 

[THATSGOLD]

Definitely, but did our perceived top end talent run much deeper at the start of 2010. Probably when you look at that team in retrospect, but what about the 2010 preseason.


Swan
Pendlebury
Didak
Cloke
Ball
Jolly
Shaw
Thomas
Davis


It was our even spread of talent that separated us from the rest.

Hmm coming off season 09. Daisy was pretty solid. Shaw obviously at the top. Jolly and Ball were a bit unknown but I don't think you could doubt recruiting them before season 2010 began..
Harry was in good form in 09.
Leigh Brown was our best player in the 09 prelim, which was a worry.
Reid and Brown Beams Sidebottom you probably couldn't include which aren't.
Prestigiacomo maybe should be in that top 10 starting 2010.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I'm of the belief that your worst 5 players on the park win or lose you games.

agree with this. Usually when you look at the two benches on paper you can see who has a leg up.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I'm confident that Swan's 2015 will be much like previous seasons other than 2014. Like to see him on the wing using his running power and having spurts in the centre and up forward.

It would be crazy to try and play Swan in the middle and have him burnt out by round 9 and fall right away for the rest of 2015. Imo play him off a half back or half forward now. He needs games under the belt and maybe ease him back in to the middle in second half of 2015 should he not break down by then.

 

[THATSGOLD]

The Pareto Principle. The law of the vital few.

Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes.​

Do you think this holds true for Footy? As in, do 20% of the players contribute to 80% of the result? It is a fascinating thought really. We have so many super star players in the league as a whole but no more than 3 or 4 at most at any one club, with another 3 or 4 on the cusp. So on a list of 47 that means 9 players are going to make or break your season.

If thats the case (and for the sake of the discussion/debate) who are your 20% at Collingwood that will be making up the 80% of the results in 2015?

1. S Pendlebury
2. T Cloke
3. S Sidebottom
4. J Elliott
5. L Greenwood
6. B Reid
7. L Keeffe
8. T Adams
9. J Witts

I can't believe a kangaroo comes to Collingwood and he's our 5th best player. Where would he be ranked with them? Goldstein
Ziebell
Swallow
Thompson
Harvey
Dal Santo
All better.

 

[ksardog]

I hav always thought with swan that his best football was when high rotations were the rule. Was wondering why dont we keep him in this routine while others pick up the slack with staying on the ground longer.

Ie if swan was rotated 16 times a game back in when there was no limit on interchange, why not keep him to that now. Its when he was at his best, his burst speed and power were an absolute weapon. Why couldnt we adjust the other interchanges so one of our best players is playing at his best.

 

[soreplums]

It would be crazy to try and play Swan in the middle and have him burnt out by round 9 and fall right away for the rest of 2015. Imo play him off a half back or half forward now. He needs games under the belt and maybe ease him back in to the middle in second half of 2015 should he not break down by then.

He can start up forward and push onto a wing to get some run into his legs. On the wing he can judge the pace of the game and work into it. If he plays as a permanent hff, he'll always have someone on his hammer (unless he can burn them as a high half forward). I think he needs stints on a wing to get run into his legs so he has an opportunity to get back to as near as his best as possible. Without doubt he plays his best footy in the middle of the ground. After the bye, I'd like him to start being a permanent fixture in the middle of the ground, pinch hitting in the centre bounces and up forward. He can come on and off the ground if needed or rested up forward. When fit, his strength is using his running ability to run into space and get the ball.

I'm not completely turned off him playing off half back, I'm just not convinced that it is the best balance for our team. Swan is a different player than what he was when he first started his career.His running ability might be great off a half back to create an option, but I'm not sure how he would go as a permanent defender or whether his kicking on the rebound is as attacking as necessary.

 

[soreplums]

I can't believe a kangaroo comes to Collingwood and he's our 5th best player. Where would he be ranked with them? Goldstein
Ziebell
Swallow
Thompson
Harvey
Dal Santo
All better.

According to their B&F count top 2/3

 

[THATSGOLD]

According to their B&F count top 2/3

Going off that Harry is a loss. Big loss.

 

[soreplums]

Going off that Harry is a loss. Big loss.

Maybe. But I think we have him covered.

 

[jjsmitty8]

I'm of the belief that your worst 5 players on the park win or lose you games.

Yep, me too. Especially when it's two top notch sides, the team that wins is the one who's lesser players stand up the best.