The Break Even Thread

[Affidavit]

I thought it would be a good idea of having a BE thread for all rookies and players of interest.

Instead of the same questions being asked in different threads weekly we can have just one thread where people can post the BE's of players of interest.

Leon Davis: 1
Jaxon Barham: -44
Dayne Beams: 32
Jack Ziebell: 14
Levi Greenwood: -53
Luke Hodge: 104
Lance Franklin: 132
Andrew Carrazzo: 185
Ryan Houlihan: 33
Mitchell Brown: 8
Stephen Hill: -29
Nick Suban: 25
Daniel Rich: 50
Hamish Hartlett: -6
Andy Otten: 15
Jared Petrenko: 41
Taylor Walker: 71
Robin Nahas: -5
Matthew Richardson: 219
Joel Corey: 119
Gary Ablett: 157
Steve Johnson: 128
Shuan Higgins: 59
Adam Cooney: 149
Nick Riewoldt: 66

 

[senrulzisback]

Richo has a tasty B/E of 253, will be picking him up for sure in a couple of weeks

 

[Affidavit]

Richo has a tasty B/E of 253, will be picking him up for sure in a couple of weeks

Me too! and im sure every other team will to hahah

 

[Athomas]

Kornes - 114
Brown - 14

I have 100K in bank.
Going to downgrade Brown next week, and upgrade Beams to Kornes.

Beams $180K + $100K in bank = $280K

Kornes is 403K, Brown 180K. Need Brown to score > 61, Kornes to score < 98 for me to be able to afford Kornes. Ahhhhh will come down to the wire.

Basically need the difference between Brown and Kornes to be < 37!

 

[sherrin_footy]

Kornes - 114
Brown - 14

I have 100K in bank.
Going to downgrade Brown next week, and upgrade Beams to Kornes.

Beams $180K + $100K in bank = $280K

Kornes is 403K, Brown 180K. Need Brown to score > 61, Kornes to score < 98 for me to be able to afford Kornes. Ahhhhh will come down to the wire.

Basically need the difference between Brown and Kornes to be < 37!

ahh a few things..who are u planning to downgrade brown to? also, i dont think brown will have peaked by next week

 

[Athomas]

ahh a few things..who are u planning to downgrade brown to? also, i dont think brown will have peaked by next week

Yeh, very true, no-one really to trade him too. But I think he will have almost peaked, need to upgrade 6th mid to Kornes asap but.

 

[sherrin_footy]

Yeh, very true, no-one really to trade him too. But I think he will have almost peaked, need to upgrade 6th mid to Kornes asap but.

whats the rest of your forward line?

 

[Athomas]

whats the rest of your forward line?

Chapman, Franklin, Pavlich, ROK, Higgins, Krakouer, Brown (Mccafer, Hentschel).

Trading Walker to Mccafer if named this week.

Will then upgrade final rookie to Richo in 3-4 weeks.

 

[Affidavit]

Chapman, Franklin, Pavlich, ROK, Higgins, Krakouer, Brown (Mccafer, Hentschel).

Trading Walker to Mccafer if named this week.

Will then upgrade final rookie to Richo in 3-4 weeks.

So your not upgrading Krakouer or Higgns even ROK if he still under performs with others back into the Sydney line up.

 

[Quazza]

cool thread. Couple I'm interested in are Bartel and Mackie?

 

[premiers06]

cool thread. Couple I'm interested in are Bartel and Mackie?

according to ff genie bartel is 113 and mackie is 84, so id say both of them will stay around the same price IMO

 

[Quazza]

yeah I noticed Mackie has hit the 100 in his last 2 weeks so think now might be the week to upgrade Drummond to him

 

[sherrin_footy]

yeah I noticed Mackie has hit the 100 in his last 2 weeks so think now might be the week to upgrade Drummond to him

:S you can't be serious...
why would you upgrade drummond?

that screams out sideways trade, and in my opinion could possibly be a down grade as drummond may end up averaging more than mackie.

 

[Quazza]

:S you can't be serious...
why would you upgrade drummond?

that screams out sideways trade, and in my opinion could possibly be a down grade as drummond may end up averaging more than mackie.

Macki was priced as a Premium at the start of the year. Started slow, dropped, now scoring well. IMO that will only improve once Harley is back

Drummond scored 92 last week and dropped 9k

Am I missing something? (no really, am i? I don;t really get the B/E etc side of things)

 

[Virgil]

Macki was priced as a Premium at the start of the year. Started slow, dropped, now scoring well. IMO that will only improve once Harley is back

Drummond scored 92 last week and dropped 9k

Am I missing something? (no really, am i? I don;t really get the B/E etc side of things)

Price fluctuations are based on the average of a player's last three matches. Drummond did well on the weekend, but his two previous scores were fairly average, so his average for the three week period wasn't enough to hold his price.

Drummond's break even score this week is 70, Mackie's is 57. If you're planning on jumping on Mackie, this is the week to do it price-wise (not sure how he goes against Sydney). I don't think Drummond is the kind of player I'd be looking to get rid of though.

 

[spence]

What makes me angry is that all of FanFooty, Too Serious, and FF Genie all have differant breakevens!

 

[Virgil]

They're all approximations spence. I don't think there is any definitive way to name a player's BE without knowing how many points will be scored next week. They should all be roughly the same, perhaps take an average of the three (or use the one that seems most accurate).

 

[Brown Bottle]

What makes me angry is that all of FanFooty, Too Serious, and FF Genie all have differant breakevens!

That's because although the magic number is somewhere around 4400 no-one knows exactly what it is, and it doesn't always seem to hold exactly true. If you track players' price changes vs their scores in a spreadsheet you'll find that some will be spot on from week to week and others will be slightly out. That's what I found last year anyway

 

[Quazza]

Price fluctuations are based on the average of a player's last three matches. Drummond did well on the weekend, but his two previous scores were fairly average, so his average for the three week period wasn't enough to hold his price.

Drummond's break even score this week is 70, Mackie's is 57. If you're planning on jumping on Mackie, this is the week to do it price-wise (not sure how he goes against Sydney). I don't think Drummond is the kind of player I'd be looking to get rid of though.

ah ok, didn't realise the 3 game thing. See I've also got Firritto, but thought of keeping him as he's still going up. Maybe I'll look at upgrading him?

 

[Virgil]

ah ok, didn't realise the 3 game thing. See I've also got Firritto, but thought of keeping him as he's still going up. Maybe I'll look at upgrading him?

I also have Drummond and Firrito, and I'm not really sure what to do with them at the moment. They're scoring well enough to hold their spots in my team in the short-term but they aren't quite scoring enough for me to consider them keepers.

Firrito's BE for this week is about 73, so he's actually less likely to make you money this week than Drummond is, though if he does get his BE his price should spike the week after.

 

[Lakey91]

That's because although the magic number is somewhere around 4400 no-one knows exactly what it is, and it doesn't always seem to hold exactly true. If you track players' price changes vs their scores in a spreadsheet you'll find that some will be spot on from week to week and others will be slightly out. That's what I found last year anyway

Thats because the magic number changes!

I havent made any calculations yet, but I intend to so that I can have a look at any similarities between it and the 2008 MN fluctuations when im board in the off season.

 

[Quazza]

I also have Drummond and Firrito, and I'm not really sure what to do with them at the moment. They're scoring well enough to hold their spots in my team in the short-term but they aren't quite scoring enough for me to consider them keepers.

Firrito's BE for this week is about 73, so he's actually less likely to make you money this week than Drummond is, though if he does get his BE his price should spike the week after.

Yeah that's it isn't it. Close to being keepers, but not quite. I have $110k in the bank so could upgrade to Lockyer as well, hmmmm

 

[Kid A]

Drummond is a keeper as far as I'm concerned. Averaging 80+ is more than sufficient to be the 7th or even 6th backman.

You are much better off upgrading your team from worst to best - in other words try to upgrade guys like Beams, Rich, Walker/M.Brown, Skipworth before you upgrade guys like Hasleby, Ziebell. Borderline keepers like Drummond & Higgins can wait till last. That way you ensure that every trade gets you good value.

 

[sherrin_footy]

lockyer's be?

 

[Virgil]

lockyer's be?

109.