The Draft is Overrated

[jacksgh]

Is it cursed?

An earlier pick is definitely more valuable than a later pick. You're right - it is simple.

The frogurt is also cursed

 

[Sweet Jesus]

The frogurt is also cursed

That's bad.

 

[dajesmac]

It's far cheaper to build a team through the draft. Established players cost a premium.

The draft is overrated to the extent that trading out players of use for draft picks is pretty risky. Those who overdo it often shoot themselves in the foot. But it's stupid to suggest that it's a better method to try and trade your key players when a) you're paying that premium and b) the number of A grade players willing to move clubs is pretty small.

The best method IMO is to draft and develop your nucleus and trade in established support players. Occasionally you may land a Dangerfield, but generally these players are drafted in.

 

[Corkintheocean]

OP has no idea.

Can't believe it took 3 pages.

 

[Corkintheocean]

2004 Draft:

1 Brett Deledio
2 Jarryd Roughead
3 Ryan Griffin
4 Richard Tambling
5 Lance Franklin
6 Tom Williams
7 Jordan Lewis
8 John Meesen
9 Jordan Russell
10 Chris Egan
11 Adam Thomson
12 Danny Meyer
13 Matthew Bate
14 Angus Monfries
15 Lynden Dunn
16 Adam Pattison
17 Andrew McQualter
18 Cameron Wood
19 Ryan Willits

This time we have 9 out of 19 players who lived up to expectations.

Again looking at 1 in every 2...

So Roughead, Franklin and Lewis only receive the same tick as Jordan Russell despite wildly overperforming the expectations of a pick 2,5 and 7 respectively.

How does your argument adjust for high draft picks that overperform their expectations? To the naked eye, it doesn't.

 

[RedVest4]

Sweet Jesus I think you’d make a good poster on Bay 13, come and join me

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

2004 Draft:

1 Brett Deledio
2 Jarryd Roughead
3 Ryan Griffin
4 Richard Tambling
5 Lance Franklin
6 Tom Williams
7 Jordan Lewis
8 John Meesen
9 Jordan Russell
10 Chris Egan
11 Adam Thomson
12 Danny Meyer
13 Matthew Bate
14 Angus Monfries
15 Lynden Dunn
16 Adam Pattison
17 Andrew McQualter
18 Cameron Wood
19 Ryan Willits

This time we have 9 out of 19 players who lived up to expectations.

Again looking at 1 in every 2...

One would of thought doing a top 10 would be more of a guide than all the way to pick 18 as from the 12 range onwards as you say it is a lottery.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Sweet Jesus I think you’d make a good poster on Bay 13, come and join me

Would you give up Geelong's first-rounder this year for Scott Lycett?

 

[Catters 070911]

Would you give up Geelong's first-rounder this year for Scott Lycett?

Depends who else is available, but we need a ruckman, so depending on what else is on offer (e.g. Grundy or Gawn become available) or it is a bumper draft, and what picks we get from trades (and maybe move up the draft order) then, yeah, I wouldn't mind getting Lycett.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Depends who else is available, but we need a ruckman, so depending on what else is on offer (e.g. Grundy or Gawn become available) or it is a bumper draft, and what picks we get from trades (and maybe move up the draft order) then, yeah, I wouldn't mind getting Lycett.

And you would give up Geelong's first-rounder in return?

 

[Catters 070911]

The Hawks brains trust agree with the OP i think. Most of our team on the weekend was made up of players who started their careers elsewhere. And most of the Hawk draftees in the team were either old players or late draft picks.

We have traded most of our first round picks since 2007... our last selection was Schoenmakers or Issac Smith (we also picked Burton at 19, for a traded in pick).

I personally think Geelong excel at picks in the second round or early third (and late first round picks). I think those picks can be underrated if you get enough of them, and have an excellent recruiter.

Very interested too see what the Hawks do with their first round pick this year.

"Geelong excel at picks"

A Hawthorn supporter giving Geelong some credit. I thought I would never see the day.

 

[Catters 070911]

And you would give up Geelong's first-rounder in return?

Yeah, no problem, if there is no one better we can use it on.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Yeah, no problem, if there is no one better we can use it on.

Sweet bro.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Okay, so you ONLY want players from the draft, and never from free agency or trades.

If the best player in the league not at your club wanted to be traded to your team, would you think "No thanks, we are only building through the draft". ?

Who said that?

Yeah, because Anthony Banik, Richard Lounder, Darren Gaspar, Aaron Fiora and Richard Tambling and the guy you picked instead of Jason Cloke did so much for Richmond as early draft picks, didn't they?

Again, you appear to have me confused me with someone else. And I'm not sure what point you think you're making here.

 

[Catters 070911]

Who said that?

Again, you appear to have me confused me with someone else. And I'm not sure what point you think you're making here.

My point is, that Richmond were shitty at drafting, and probably hold the record for the most wasted early picks. It is only in the last decade that you got it right.

You're the one saying how the draft is the reason for most club's success, and not players from other clubs, yet would you have won the flag with Caddy, Prestia, Nankervis, Grigg, Houli or Townsend?

 

[Catters 070911]

Would you give up Geelong's first-rounder this year for Scott Lycett?

Scott Lycett. Maybe.

Nic Natianui. Definitely!

 

[Drewie11]

Nah but Adelaide fans insist that getting a pick in the mid teens this year for Lever is totally a win for them

Fugazi

 

[Sweet Jesus]

My point is, that Richmond were shitty at drafting, and probably hold the record for the most wasted early picks. It is only in the last decade that you got it right.

And how is this relevant?

You realise I don't support Richmond, right?

You're the one saying how the draft is the reason for most club's success, and not players from other clubs, yet would you have won the flag with Caddy, Prestia, Nankervis, Grigg, Houli or Townsend?

Yet their four best players all came through the draft, with relatively early picks within a few years of one another. That's how you build a successful core.

I've never said clubs shouldn't seek to add players through trading or free agency. I've said that the draft is the most reliable, most fundamental way to build a successful core. Richmond are an example of that. So were Geelong.

Scott Lycett. Maybe.

You already said yes.

 

[Catters 070911]

RedVest4 why won't you answer this question?

If the draft is indeed a lottery, what would you want in return for Geelong's first-rounder this year?

You have argued that the draft is overrated and a lottery, so teams should just trade away early picks for established players. So presumably you would be willing to trade Geelong's first-rounder for an established ruckman – Scott Lycett, for example – who would walk into your 22. You would do that deal in a heartbeat because the draft is a lottery and "it is a smart move to trade away draft picks for established players". Right?

Put your money where your mouth is and tell everyone how cheaply you'd sell Geelong's first-round pick.

Considering that our first draft pick is usually in the late 30's, then WCE would probably want more than our first pick.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Considering that our first draft pick is usually in the late 30's, then WCE would probably want more than our first pick.

Based on current ladder position, your first pick will be #13.

 

[LittleG]

Vesty:
Early draft pick are required to build your nucleus of a strong team. Nucleus being 8-10 players. Once in place and identified as high level players, at least some of them must be key on ground positions: C, RR, Ruck, CHB, CHF/FF.
once you have that, draft picks take too long to reach potential and are better spent on quality players. At this point draft picks become just tradable assets and not hope for the future.

AFL has recognised this already, by making a minimum requirement for first round picks being taken by every team in a four year cycle.

Bulldogs fell from finals when they lost 4 highly experienced AA level players and are playing kids in their place. Once they identify their 8-10 quality players, then iMO they should trade for experienced players to fill in gaps. Early picks will become useless then.


Notes:
Cats team was built when F/S selections were third rounders.... this completely distorts their build. So, don't site that as evidence that all picks are trash.