The "Green Book" Thread

[brent-83]

No worries, thought that may be the case.

Thanks.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

^ Unless of course the original bet was on Betfair, in which case you don't need the bankroll to hedge your bet.

 

[brent-83]

^ Unless of course the original bet was on Betfair, in which case you don't need the bankroll to hedge your bet.

TAB unfortuntely. Either way, it was a longshot bet anyway, and did it after the Crows went on their 7 win streak where he averaged over 30 touches (or close to) per game.

Most of my bets are around team votes/group votes in the Brownlow.

 

[flea29]

Had 5 units on Ablett into Saints a few weeks ago @ 8.12 (3.25 x 2.5), hoping that Saints would make the GF & start favorites. Unfortunately will have to throw a bit extra on the Cats now but will still turn overall profit.
Overall:20 units invested
Saints 5 @ 8.12 = 40.6 = 20.6 profit
Cats 15 @ 1.63 = 24.45 = 4.45 profit

Go Saints!!

 

[The Royal Sampler]

^ Bad luck on that one.

I sold my stake in Minnesota this week @ $14.5. Decent profit there after backing them at $21.

 

[clivewaterhousen]

im going to lay carlton to make the 8 on betfair if fev goes

 

[Schmucta]

Austria Vienna v Mattersburg (soccer)



Betfair Lay Austria Vienna $100 @ 1.40

Centrebet Back Austria Vienna $78.50 @ 1.72

$16.50 profit locked in.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

nice arb schmuta

 

[Ricketts]

I backed the Hawks to win the flag at $32. Can now lay at $12. Will probably just let it ride all the way.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I backed the Hawks to win the flag at $32. Can now lay at $12. Will probably just let it ride all the way.

Even if they face Geelong in the GF

BTW you would be sitting nicely if you had backed Adelaide for the flag @ 1000-1 a couple of months ago.

 

[uptheblues]

Even if they face Geelong in the GF

BTW you would be sitting nicely if you had backed Adelaide for the flag @ 1000-1 a couple of months ago.

Can you explain how this method works? I dont exactly understand
Say if i did back Adelaide for the flag at 1000-1, how would that help me ensure a profit?

 

[Bloods]

Can you explain how this method works? I dont exactly understand
Say if i did back Adelaide for the flag at 1000-1, how would that help me ensure a profit?

Let's say you had $10 on at $1000 to win $10,000. You could now lay off at $70. You could lay them for $50 as an example which would reduce your profit on the Crows by $3,500. Provided you hadn't had any other bets on the flag, you'd stand to win $6,500 on the Crows and $40 on all other teams.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Let's say you had $10 on at $1000 to win $10,000. You could now lay off at $70. You could lay them for $50 as an example which would reduce your profit on the Crows by $3,500. Provided you hadn't had any other bets on the flag, you'd stand to win $6,500 on the Crows and $40 on all other teams.

Or you could perhaps wait until they hit $50 for the lay and then LAY them for $200. Your position would then be: +$200 any other team/Break even Crows

 

[Sportman1987]

Let's say you had $10 on at $1000 to win $10,000. You could now lay off at $70. You could lay them for $50 as an example which would reduce your profit on the Crows by $3,500. Provided you hadn't had any other bets on the flag, you'd stand to win $6,500 on the Crows and $40 on all other teams.

So with the Crows example - does laying off mean placing a bet of an appropriate amount on each of the remaining teams that could win the grand final to create an arb?

Sounds like you'd need to have a massive amount of funds to do this. Well, I guess you explained it - you'd spend 3500 to win 40 dollars (or on the off chance 6500), correct?

 

[Bloods]

So with the Crows example - does laying off mean placing a bet of an appropriate amount on each of the remaining teams that could win the grand final to create an arb?

Sounds like you'd need to have a massive amount of funds to do this. Well, I guess you explained it - you'd spend 3500 to win 40 dollars (or on the off chance 6500), correct?

If betting with a standard bookmaker, yes that's correct. But not on Betfair. With Betfair, all you have to do is 'lay' the Crows at $70, after backing them at $1,000. This reduces your profit on the Crows and your 'worst result' is credited to your account immediately. So you don't have to have massive sums of money in your account to be able to do this.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

On exchanges such as Betfair, you can "leverage" against your existing equity in a market.

Say I back Louis Oosthuizen with $10 at $250.00 to win the Open Championship.

I stand to win $2,490, or lose $10.

Now Oosthuizen shortens to $1.90 after three rounds. Let's say other punters want to back him at $1.92, so you can "lay off" for that amount.

You select the "lay" button next to Oosthuizen, and lay him for $1,300 (this is the backer's stake). As you do this, there will be a +$2,490 next to his name, and -$10 next to the name of all opponents. Because you're offering odds of $1.92 you stand to lose $1,196 purely on the lay bet. You do not need to have the $1,196 in your account, because you already have "equity" in the market. As you make the lay bet on Oosthuizen, the number next to his name changes to +$1,294, and the number next to his opponents becomes +$1,290.

In this instance, if Oosthuizen wins you win $2,490 minus the $1,196 you lose on the lay bet. Net result +$1,294.

If Oosthuizen loses, you lose your $10 win bet, but win $1,300 on the lay bet. Net result +$1,290.

*My maths may be out a bit here, but this is the basic idea.

 

[Sportman1987]

If betting with a standard bookmaker, yes that's correct. But not on Betfair. With Betfair, all you have to do is 'lay' the Crows at $70, after backing them at $1,000. This reduces your profit on the Crows and your 'worst result' is credited to your account immediately. So you don't have to have massive sums of money in your account to be able to do this.

On exchanges such as Betfair, you can "leverage" against your existing equity in a market.

Say I back Louis Oosthuizen with $10 at $250.00 to win the Open Championship.

I stand to win $2,490, or lose $10.

Now Oosthuizen shortens to $1.90 after three rounds. Let's say other punters want to back him at $1.92, so you can "lay off" for that amount.

You select the "lay" button next to Oosthuizen, and lay him for $1,300 (this is the backer's stake). As you do this, there will be a +$2,490 next to his name, and -$10 next to the name of all opponents. Because you're offering odds of $1.92 you stand to lose $1,196 purely on the lay bet. You do not need to have the $1,196 in your account, because you already have "equity" in the market. As you make the lay bet on Oosthuizen, the number next to his name changes to +$1,294, and the number next to his opponents becomes +$1,290.

In this instance, if Oosthuizen wins you win $2,490 minus the $1,196 you lose on the lay bet. Net result +$1,294.

If Oosthuizen loses, you lose your $10 win bet, but win $1,300 on the lay bet. Net result +$1,290.

*My maths may be out a bit here, but this is the basic idea.

Oh cool, had no idea Betfair offered something like that. Thanks - makes more sense now.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Backed "Lay the Draw" on bet365 @ $1.37 (equivalent to laying at ~$3.25) for the 2nd Test Australia vs. Pakistan.

6 wickets fell in the first session, the Draw on Betfair blew out to $20.

I backed the Draw in-play on Sportingbet (lower minimum bet available) at $15.

 

[Bloods]

Good work TRS.

I layed the draw in the Sri Lanka/India test at $1.10 and then backed the draw at $5.00 last night. Sri Lanka look like they'll get up now but I win either way

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Wow, $1.10!?! That's exceptionally short, great work.

 

[publicenemyk2]

Hi wasnt sure what to do in this situation but thought i might see if anyone can help here...

I put $20 on hodge for the brownlow early in the year when he was $29 should i just ride it out and cash in (hoping he keeps up the form) or is there a way to increase the chances by laying...

cheers

​

Mar 30 2010, 04:42 PM 2010 Brownlow Medal - Winner EW 1/4- 1-2-3 366: (Straight) Luke Hodge [HAW] @ 29.00

$20
$0​

 

[The Royal Sampler]

So you had $20 on him @ $29?

Potential earn of $560 if he wins.
On Betfair you can lay him @ $4.30 currently, so...

Lay Luke Hodge for $135 (backer's stake) @ $4.30 (total liability $445.50),
Hodge wins and you get $560 - $445.50 = $114.50
Hodge loses and you get $135 - $20 = $115

Betfair will take a 5% commission on your profit though, so factor that in and you get around $109.25 if Hodge loses. Not sure what you rate Hodge's chances at, so you may consider a chance at winning $560 to be better than a guaranteed $110-$115.

 

[publicenemyk2]

Thanks for that makes it abit clearer...im on sportingbet so dont think they have this option. Will probably ride it out but just wanted to get a better understanding of the system. Kicking myself i didnt put an extra 0 at the end of the bet..hindsight it a beautiful thing

 

[The Royal Sampler]

You can always start an account at Betfair, but yeah the problem for this bet is that you would need $445.50 in a Betfair account to make it work.

Longer term it would be handy for bets such as this, I'd recommend everyone at least have an account there for just such an occasion.

If you want a referral send me a PM.

 

[publicenemyk2]

will do. was just having a look throught he website now. They offer a bigger variety of bets its very dangerous! noticed Chapman paying $5 for top 5 is great value imo.