The Israeli/Palestinian Peace Process

[pazza]

Only serious posters please reply to this...something like this should be above who's right and who is wrong (well I'd hope anyway).

With the situation regarding Arafat and him being officially close to death it seems (he is in a coma from all reports), where would this put the peace process between the 2 sides.

I have grave fears that the situation over there could yet escalate, if Arafat sadly passes away, as I think without him, the peace process, as flimsy as it stands at the moment, will go very quickly.

What will happen?

 

[MillerCHF]

It's hard to say. There are those who believe that Arafat's death will make way for a more moderate leader to emerge from the Palestinian side, while others say Hamas or another group that is even more extremist than Fatah will take over.

But I will say that regardless of who takes over, I don't think the peace process will be revived all of a sudden. So don't expect Arafat's death to result in peace the next day, because it won't happen. Most of Arafat's potential successors, while talking the language of peace in English, talk the language of war in Arabic. True, there are some like Dahlan who do come across as moderate, but one wonders what they will do when they claim power.

Sari Nusseibeh is one who potentially could make a genuine push for peace, but it's unlikely he'll be able to grab power.

Expect some sort of power struggle (possibly including some civil unrest), but as to who emerges it is anybody's guess. I guess it also depends on how much influence the US administration seeks to have in picking the new leader, as well as who the Arab League and the EU annoint as their preferred successor.

In terms of whether the situation will escalate, I can't see how it will. The Palestinians have exhausted all their options. While the odd suicide bomber is able to get through in areas where the fence hasn't been completed, a lot of the terrorist infrastructure has been dismantled and many of the terror groups are close to collapse. As I indicated above, we're more likely to see the Palestinians turn on each other (it's already happened a bit). Hamas will see this as their opportunity to grab power while Arafat's friends will do anything they can to hold on to power, which includes the benefits of millions of dollars of aid that they can use for whatever purpose they want.

It's actually a very good question Pazza, but a very difficult one, and one which many experts (from both sides of the divide) will probably get wrong when they attempt to predict it.

 

[funkyfreo]

I agree - could go either way.

I think the US election could have a significant influence. I think a Kerry Govt could encourage the palestinians to go with a peacemaker - but that really is a guess.

 

[MillerCHF]

I agree - could go either way.

I think the US election could have a significant influence. I think a Kerry Govt could encourage the palestinians to go with a peacemaker - but that really is a guess.

Kerry won't be that different to Bush in terms of the way he approaches this situation.

 

[- PC -]

Kerry won't be that different to Bush in terms of the way he approaches this situation.

I think long term you are right..but I think the short term could see a vacuum that if done right the Israelis could use to their advantage. I feel that the stars are aligning themselves for an intersting 6 months. Arafat dies we either have a smooth transition(10% chance) or we have continual infighting(75%) at the same time we (may 50%) have a new US president who will spend 6 months sorting his own issues out.

Unfortuantely I dont think it will be at all peaceful either way

 

[Fuzzy Wuzzy Bear]

If his death comes to pass during this time of war between the two, it will just cause more anger for either side to take it out on each other (even though this isn't a valid reason, as rarely do we have one for war) The peace process, or what is left of it will be non-existent. I haven't seen much done for either of them from the bush government and the way Kerry is who has pretty much the opposite ideas of Bush I can't see any noticeble change coming up, even if he is elected president.

 

[pav_is_god]

If he dies peace will depend upon who becomes his successor and who wins the US elections - so things could go either way.

 

[sinepari]

i am saying no more than this;
in the line of work i am in, u quickly realise that arafat is NOT helping the peace process, despite wat u hear on T.V

 

[MillerCHF]

i am saying no more than this;
in the line of work i am in, u quickly realise that arafat is NOT helping the peace process, despite wat u hear on T.V

I'm not saying this to offend you, because I happen to agree with you...but anybody with half a brain should have realised by now that Arafat is NOT helping the peace process, regardless of where they work.

Unfortunately, Sinepari, you and I are among a minority in that we realise Arafat has not changed his ways and that he never will.