The NBA 2010/11 Thread

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Thread starter #1,677
I'm up and down like a yoyo, think i'm going to be taking all my leans from now on. May be quite from me today though as i'll be focusing on College Football.
 
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far out work was an absolute bitch tonight
2 bets for today
2 units on knicks/wolves <215.5
2 units blazers +2.5

good luck to others
omg been horrified the last few hours.
slept through the games and our internet was out until just now
won both bets by .5
THANK GOD I SLEPT THROUGH THEM
don't think i couldve watched the portland game
YTD: +22.46 units
WTD(Day 1): +3.64 units
 

tige19

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Fcuk me Orlando are quickly becoming the leagues most costly team, costing me multis everywhere, they were the most reliable team last year.
 
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YTD: +22.46 units
WTD(Day 1): +3.64 units
im taking a couple games that may be a bit risky due to scheduling but wth
2 units jazz -1.5
2 units nets +6.5
2 units cavs -2
2 units celtics - 3

jazz's 4th game in 5 days could undo that bet but they are versing charlotte so hopefully should be good
cavs had a 3 day break at home verse the pacers on a back to back
could be a sunday treat hopefully:p
 

foxy_dal

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Few of my thoughts for tomorrow.

Utah v Charlotte

Like the chances of a low scoring game. Of Charlottes 8 games played 6 have been under 190. Although Utah have only had 1 game under this total I am expecting both teams to score between 80-90 as a lot of Bobcats games have gone. Utah the better team as Charlotte have only beaten Toronto, New Jersey and Washington.

Total under 188
Utah -1.5

Orlando v New Jersey

Orlando have lost the last 2 games by allowing their opponents to shoot over 50% and would be very suprised to see that continue for a third straight game. Nets are ranked 27th for FG% so a good opportunity for Orlando to work on their defense. Lopez also out of form and hard to see him bouncing back against Dwight. The line of 191 is spot on but will lean towards the over with the previous meeting totalling 195 (105-95) with not a lot of confidence.

Total Over 191
Orlando -6.5

Indiana v Cleveland

Probably a no bet game for me with question marks over Williams and Verajaos fitness. Looking at last years games between these two, 3 of the 4 games were under 201 with the Cavs winning those 3 and Pacers winning the one higher scoring game. Although hard to use last years data for the Cavs without Lebron. With Indiana having played today I am leaning towards Cavs and if it is anything like last year that would mean both teams scoring under 100.

Total Under 201.5
Cleveland -2

Toronto v Miami

Miami should win this and would be keen to get a win on the board after a dissapointing start. It has been noted that they struggle against teams with all star point guards but Toronto is not a problem here. Although 15 points is a big line for any team Miami have won 3 games by 20+ so when things work they work well. Could see a similar high scoring to Miami v Minnisota last week (129-97) which was also a home game for Miami.

Total over 199.5
Miami -15

Washington v Chicago

Looking forward to Rose v Wall to see some talent go to work. Reading the game preview, a qutoe from Noah "We want to play fast. It works to our advantage" suggests they offense will not be slowing down and the Wizards have lost the last 3 at Chicago giving up 112 points so I think the over is one of the plays of the day. 11 points is too large a line for Chicago given they have only really put one team away which was a tired GSW in their last game.

Total over 200.5
Washington +11

Boston v Memphis

Really rate Boston and a road trip to Memphis should be no problem for them. An interesting stat is in Memphis's 5 losses they are giving up 117 points and have scored over 100 themselves in 4 of those games. Would not expect the Celtics to score that high unless they carry their hot shooting against Miami, in particular Allen from 3 but like the chances of the over here. Last year the 2 game totals were 202 and 215 so the over is another of my best bets.

Total over 195.5
Boston -3

Philadelphia v San Antonio

Expect San Antonio to get the job done but not keen on the line of 10. Both teams average over 100 for and against which could lead to a scoreline with both teams 100+. 203 is about spot on going by averages so will lean towards the under as I already have mostly overs. Probably stay away from this game due to the big line.

Total under 203.5
Philadelphia +10
 
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Thread starter #1,683
Leans for today...

Charlotte +1.5
Charlotte/Utah Under 188.5
Chicago -11
Philadelphia +10.5
Milwaukee ??

Riding Utah to faulter, at the end of a 4 game trip, after beating Miami, Orlando and Atlanta, think this is a pure let down game, especially playing their 4th in 5 days. Williams has been outstanding but has averaged 40+ minutes over the three games in four days so far, normally a struggling road team to win 4 on the trott, on the road in 5 days? They are back home in a days time to play OKC too. Their luck will run out tonight, 3 consecutive games they've comeback from a double digit deficit at the half and last night they were down by 11 in the 4th. Yes, it's a great effort but things have to fall into place for stuff like this to happen, Williams himself called his team fortunte the other day. Charlotte are playing 3 in 4 but are back home after two wins on the road and still looking for their first home win. Under 190 is a great go too with one team really tired and the other plays a slow tempo will solid defense.

Terrible spot for Washington, 3rd game in 4 days against a team that is going to come out and run on offense. Rose v Wall, super matchup but normally the Wizards have an advantage at the point, tonight the don't. Where does covering the line come from? Gilbert who is a chucker and can't shoot? 2 from 14 last night, 1 from 9, doubt that changes on a back to back. Wizards are getting killed on the boards, that doesn't bode well when they are coming up against arguably one of the best rebound teams in the league. Wizards forced, or more like the Cats had 22 TO last night, Wizards had 12 yet lost by 8. They'll get out rebounded and will lose the TO battle with Chicago's ability to control the ball, really don't see this being close. Wiz are terrible away from home, been smashed in all 3 games this year. Al Thornton injured last night, not sure whether he plays, one of their leading scorers, may mean Gilberts start, terrible for the Wiz. Last thing, this is the Bulls' last game at home before they start their 7 game road, they'll turn up and win by DD like they've done against Portland, Detroit and Golden State at home this year.

Too many points for a look ahead situation for the Spurs. They've got OKC tomorrow night away, you should see the starters getting a bit more of rest than normal, saving their old legs for Durant and a Conference rival. This is the Sixers' 3 game in 4 days but they've been covering and playing fairly well. Were in with a shot last night, just let it slip late. Spurs can't defend the 3, they are giving up 42%, whilst the Sixers are pretty good in that area. Spurs are riding Manu and the three ball, Sixers seem to close out quickly and apply pressure allowing just 30% from downtown. Sixers keep this close, i may even have a little dabble at the ML.

Not sure what the line is right now but the Bucks at home, against the Warriors who have their final game of 5 on the road, 5th game in 7 days. Bucks starting to get into rhythm offensively, they'll strangle the Warriors team that looks to be without Lee again.
 
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Thread starter #1,685
like both, am taking the under now as its slowly slipping down on american books.

Edit: where are you getting 190?
It said 190 on the sportingbet statfeed a little while ago, now it's says 187.5, geez...

Don't think you can get anything Over 188.5 anymore.
 

The Newt

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Nice analysis Cruiser! I'm a firm believer of the impact of the schedule and don't see how Utah can pull out another win after 3 draining games against play-off teams. I doubt they will be as pumped up going into Charlotte and may take it too easily.

Cha +1.5

In case Utah win, i'm also going to have a little on

Cha/Utah - ht/ft @6.50 (Sportsbet)

I'm annoyed that i didn't have the balls to do ht/ft with the Atl/Utah game because Utah have had such terrible starts, but as we all know, they have amazing 2nd halves.

Also, why don't the agencies put up all the games the day before? At the moment they have 7/9 games up, but have left GSW/Milw and Port/NO til tomorrow morning. It's quite annoying for multis.
 

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Thread starter #1,687
Also, why don't the agencies put up all the games the day before? At the moment they have 7/9 games up, but have left GSW/Milw and Port/NO til tomorrow morning. It's quite annoying for multis.
Pretty sure it's because of injuries. It seems the bookies are waiting on some sort of information with regards to possible Roy and David Lee. At the moment they probably don't have enough info to cap the game. They don't want to be putting out lines without knowing the full extent of what they are capping, for their sake it isn't advantageous.
 

The Newt

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Ah ok makes sense.

I like NO over Portland. NO have only played 7 games so far (with their only road trip being against Rockets and Spurs) and Port have played 10 (including a trip over to the east). NO will be very fresh, injury free and CP3 running amok, even against a defensive pg in Miller. I also think it'll be a low scoring affair, with NO 29th in opp fg% and 30th in opp 3pt%. NO only allow opp 90 points while Port only allow opp 96 points. Will have to wait til the line and over/under is released but i think there could be some worthwhile odds here.
 
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Thread starter #1,689
14/11

ATS : 16 - 15 - 1 (-1.16 Units)
O/U : 4 - 4 (+0.58 Units)
H2H : 1 - 2 (-2.13 Units)
H2H Margin: 0 - 0
Player T/H2H : 1 - 3 (-3.55 Units)
Multi : 2 - 3 (-0.46 Units)
Quarters: 1 - 1 (-0.75 Units)
Halves: 0 - 1 (-3 Units)
Line/OU: 1 - 0 (+5.20 Units)
Other : 1 - 1 (+4.00 Units)

YTD : 27 - 30 - 1 (-1.82 Units)

4 Units Charlotte +1.5 against Utah @ $1.96 (IASbet) WIN (+3.84 Units)
3.5 Units Philadelphia +10.5 against the Spurs @ $1.85 (Sportingbet) LOSS (-3.5 Units)
3 Units Milwaukee -7 over Golden State @ $1.91 (Sportingbet) PUSH
2.5 Units NJ +7.5 against Orlando @ $1.91 (Centrebet) WIN (+2.23)
2.5 Units Chicago -10 over Washington @ $1.9 (Sportingbet) LOSS (-2.5)
0.5 Units Philadelphia 1-10 over Spurs @ $7.00 (Sportingbet) LOSS (-0.5)

Daily Total --0.43
 
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Thread starter #1,690
Hornets Blazers line is -4.5 Hornets.
Bucks Warriors line is -7 Bucks.

Think i'm happy to take that for the Bucks, Lee is a big loss. He gave them that extra rebounding power that they haven't had in the past. He was averaging 6 offensive boards in his last 5 games plus 15 odd points. The fact his backup is Brandon Wright and the bench can't score gives me confidence the Bucks cover.

Got a feeling the Cats line will be moving too, wouldn't surprise me to see it at +3. The public will favour Utah so expect the line to move it that direction. If it doesn't, i'd have even more confidence in taking the Cats at +1.5.
 
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luxbet have stuffed their odds up has new orleans -4.5.. but head to head says new orleans 2.50 vs portland 1.55 lol im getting on BUGGER THEY JUST FIXED IT!! i shuda bet it and not typed on here haha.. they prb wuda emailed me and not taken my bet anyway:(
 

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I'm putting 1-10 for both Charlotte and Utah, think it will be close and am wary of that total. 1 unit each @ 2.75 and 2.85
 

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I'm also on the 'Utah to falter' bandwagon, surely they will drop a game eventually... this is the weakest team they have faced in this away stretch so their minds mind not be quite on the job at hand.

I can also see another double digit loss to the Warriors against an improving Bucks side, Bogut to dominate with no Lee.

Not confident on big lines with Chicago - I am a Bulls fan so my judgement does get clouded there but think the Celtics can get up today so I have thrown those two together.

Philly seem to be doing a good job of covering lines lately so I could end up getting on them, see how my early bets go. Also want to get on NOH but I am wary of Portland's B2B form.

Boston/Bulls - 1.5 Units @ 1.84

Bucks -7.5 - 1 Unit @ 1.91

Cats +1.5 - 1 Unit @ 1.91

Magic/Hornets - 1 Unit @ 2.07

Read my mind baywatch, decided to just take the NOH h2h and pair them with an angry and embarrassed Orlando outfit.
 

baywatch5

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Todays plays

*DOUBLE (MAGIC @ NJ / Port @ HORNETS) 2.35units @ $2.07
*LINE (CELTICS -3 @ Memphis) 1.1units @ $1.91

will update later today :thumbsu:
 

Borgsta

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Was thinking of getting on Indi but their b2b stats are terrible.

I actually like Memphis today. 2 days off and at home. They close out the 3's pretty well and I think they can get it done today.

BTW found a pretty decent new source. The NBA site. Each team has a "notes" pdf.

E.G
http://www.nba.com/grizzlies/news/notes.pdf

So bets are now

I'm putting 1-10 for both Charlotte and Utah, think it will be close and am wary of that total. 1 unit each @ 2.75 and 2.85
1 unit on Memphis 1-10 @ 3.10
2 units on Orl / NOH @ 2.07
1 unit on Spurs 1-10 @ 2.70 cant see Philly winning and I like the Philly line - this pays 80c more and gives an extra point)
 

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Saturday, November 13

Trend Report

7:00 PM
UTAH vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah

7:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. NEW JERSEY
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Orlando's last 13 games when playing New Jersey
Orlando is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games
New Jersey is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Orlando

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. MIAMI
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Miami is 4-13-1 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Toronto

7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. CLEVELAND
Indiana is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cleveland
Indiana is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Indiana
Cleveland is 8-15-2 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Indiana

8:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON vs. MEMPHIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Memphis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 13 games when playing Washington
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Antonio is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. MILWAUKEE
Golden State is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
 
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