The on topic thread 4.0

[Jatz]

Victory crowd averages were boosted by derby crowds at marvel, Perth 5 years ago was when they were flying under Poppa so naturally attracted bigger crowds. Roar have really dropped off but they've had a run of lack of success. Pretty sure Richmond's crowds will have a similar drop off.

The crowds aren't surging, but those %s are on 10 years ago, not 5 years ago. The crowds when taking out those outliers are pretty stable which doesn't suggest the death spiral you seem to think.

As I started with, WUN finally moving into a home and Macarthur this season showing some positive signs, but both expansion clubs were hand-picked by the FA, the organisation you think would better run the league.

Of course clubs that aren't successful will see a drop off - AFL clubs are far less likely to feel the ongoing impacts of that financially though.

They're not pretty stable, that's the point. You've gone from crowds are higher to crowds are stable - even that's not true across the league. Crowds are down. That cannot be argued otherwise, the data is sitting there and proves that. Some clubs have been able to hold their own but the league overall is down.

It is too early to tell with WU, we'll have to see how they go in the new joint ongoing. Macarthur will always struggle.

The FA is far from perfect but the league was at it's strongest when they were running it. This current mob I have zero faith in.

 

[SM]

Of course clubs that aren't successful will see a drop off - AFL clubs are far less likely to feel the ongoing impacts of that financially though.

They're not pretty stable, that's the point. You've gone from crowds are higher to crowds are stable - even that's not true across the league. Crowds are down. That cannot be argued otherwise, the data is sitting there and proves that. Some clubs have been able to hold their own but the league overall is down.

It is too early to tell with WU, we'll have to see how they go in the new joint ongoing. Macarthur will always struggle.

The FA is far from perfect but the league was at it's strongest when they were running it. This current mob I have zero faith in.

I've said crowds are improving on last year and am saying crowds are stable on 5 years ago. That's two separate data points.

The drop off in crowds you've highlighted happened under the FA, they've since stabilised and slightly improved under the APL. The numbers, as you say, are right there.

 

[99 Problems]

What drugs have you been smoking?

German Bundesliga TV broadcasting deal collapsed just in 2022 mid season:

German government to bail out Bundesliga

The German government is to bail out football clubs after the collapse of the Kirch media company, reports Vivek Chaudhary and John Hooper.

www.theguardian.com

This also has nothing to do with the A-League. It is entirely down to the a broadcasting company going into administration, that can happen to any sporting league anywhere in the world at any time.


Utterly bizarre and unfounded rant. The A-League isn't going anywhere either, there's just been huge investment in the A-League itself (Silver Lake) and multiple clubs.

It’s got a pretty big impact on the league though. They chose the company based on the fact they couldn’t afford the costs of the company who had been doing it previously. They are now in a spot where as of yesterday they were supposedly negotiating to get the company they can’t afford to scramble together broadcasts for the rest of the year. And they’re not exactly in a strong negotiating position.

Silver Lake did get 33% of the league for that $140m, which supposedly at least $40m of is already gone from the keepup disaster. And they have a clause that would force the APL to buy back their share for market value any point up until 2029, which they wouldn’t be able to afford unless the market value is nothing, which would be another disaster.

I love the league but there are some serious problems at the moment and it’s hard to see an easy fix. They’ve got years left on a broadcast deal that decreased exposure and apparently isn’t meeting the metrics needed to get the funding the clubs were expecting of it. They’ll currently be in an even worse position when it’s time to negotiate the next deal the longer this one drags on.

 

[SM]

It’s got a pretty big impact on the league though. They chose the company based on the fact they couldn’t afford the costs of the company who had been doing it previously. They are now in a spot where as of yesterday they were supposedly negotiating to get the company they can’t afford to scramble together broadcasts for the rest of the year. And they’re not exactly in a strong negotiating position.

Silver Lake did get 33% of the league for that $140m, which supposedly at least $40m of is already gone from the keepup disaster. And they have a clause that would force the APL to buy back their share for market value any point up until 2029, which they wouldn’t be able to afford unless the market value is nothing, which would be another disaster.

I love the league but there are some serious problems at the moment and it’s hard to see an easy fix. They’ve got years left on a broadcast deal that decreased exposure and apparently isn’t meeting the metrics needed to get the funding the clubs were expecting of it. They’ll currently be in an even worse position when it’s time to negotiate the next deal the longer this one drags on.

Yeah Townsend caused a mess but I'm hopeful now that he's gone the league can pivot. Keep Up was a dumb idea, and Auckland already looks a positive addition.

 

[Jatz]

I've said crowds are improving on last year and am saying crowds are stable on 5 years ago. That's two separate data points.

The drop off in crowds you've highlighted happened under the FA, they've since stabilised and slightly improved under the APL. The numbers, as you say, are right there.

Crowds improving on last year I'll wait to see once the season finishes. Attendances at the back end of the season are always poorer for a few reasons - clubs out of contention, other codes starting up etc. We may well see that crowds haven't improved by then.

As for 5 years ago, for the league overall, they're absolutely not stable. I've already shown that data. They're down 13.1% from 5 years ago. That's not stable.

 

[Zidane98]

You're not wrong, they're way too close in a sport that can't sustain them. The NRL could make that work but the A League haven't been able to - football just isn't as popular as a professional sport in and around the Sydney/outer Sydney market.

You think it's sustainable carrying clubs that average 3k people a game? Sydney's average attendances (by far and away the most attended team) are down 20% this season.

You talk about attendances, try this on. 10 years ago, 5 years ago and then this year for average attendances and then the percentage increase/decrease from back then. I'll leave WU and Macarthur out.

Sydney - 18,862 - 13,464 - 13,450 - -28.7%
Victory - 21,736 - 20,298 - 12,632 - -41.9%
Brisbane - 18,056 - 9,632 - 6,384 - -64.6%
Wanderers - 15,171 - 9,312 - 10,778 - -29%
Jets - 11,949 - 9,079 - 5,459 - -54.31%
Adelaide - 11,225 - 9,295 - 9,842 - -12.3%
Heart/City - 9,799 - 8,133 - 9,283 - -5.3%
Perth - 9,418 - 13,705 - 5,847 - -37.9%
Mariners - 9,374 - 5,562 - 7,589 - -19%
Phoenix - 8,186 - 8,533 - 8,620 - 5.3%

Those figures speak for themselves, it's really poor. Sydney/Melbourne/Brisbane/Wanderers/Jets/Perth all down over 25%.

These figures are just part of the natural cycle of a new competition, exacerbated by COVID which affected our competition more than any other.

In reality here is 2007/08 attendances



And here is 2010/11 attendances






That's right. A 43% drop in average attendance between 2007 and 2011. After that significant decline there was a significant increase in attendances. We are now at the bottom of the cycle, the same thing will happen again. The same thing happened in the MLS after the formulative years.


Once again you are using flawed logic like with your TV broadcaster argument.



Quite frankly it is disturbing how desperate you are to try and use frivolous arguments about the A League.

It's a bit like someone coming out saying Leciester Ctiy are doomed because of their financial mismanagement.

 

[Jatz]

These figures are just part of the natural cycle of a new competition, exacerbated by COVID which affected our competition more than any other.

In reality here is 2007/08 attendances

View attachment 1941632

And here is 2010/11 attendances


View attachment 1941633



That's right. A 57% drop in average attendance between 2007 and 2011. After that significant decline there was a significant increase in attendances. We are now at the bottom of the cycle, the same thing will happen again. The same thing happened in the MLS after the formulative years.


Once again you are using flawed logic like with your TV broadcaster argument.



Quite frankly it is disturbing how desperate you are to try and use frivolous arguments about the A League.

It's a bit like someone coming out saying Leciester Ctiy are doomed because of their financial mismanagement.

Sure mate, let's pretend that the attendance drops happen as part of a natural cycle. It's why other codes go thr...oh wait, no they don't.

You're continuing to use Covid all these years later and it's embarrassing. The NRL are seeing record crowd numbers - the A League can't even get back to where they were 5 years ago.

Keep sticking your fingers in your ears and pretending everything's fine.

 

[SM]

Crowds improving on last year I'll wait to see once the season finishes. Attendances at the back end of the season are always poorer for a few reasons - clubs out of contention, other codes starting up etc. We may well see that crowds haven't improved by then.

As for 5 years ago, for the league overall, they're absolutely not stable. I've already shown that data. They're down 13.1% from 5 years ago. That's not stable.

Just going in circles at this point. Let's revisit in ten years since that's the window you've put on it.

 

[Jatz]

Just going in circles at this point. Let's revisit in ten years since that's the window you've put on it.

Let's play a different tune.

Assuming the league is still going well, which current clubs won't exist in it? Which will? Newcastle seems all but gone. I'd expect the Mariners will be kicking around still, they're fantastic at punching above their weight. Perth really worries me, Brisbane the same. I don't think Macarthur will be there.

I'm not sure where you'd expand next. Canberra but financially I don't think that's proven to be viable. Tassie maybe?

 

[Zidane98]

Sure mate, let's pretend that the attendance drops happen as part of a natural cycle. It's why other codes go thr...oh wait, no they don't.

You're continuing to use Covid all these years later and it's embarrassing. The NRL are seeing record crowd numbers - the A League can't even get back to where they were 5 years ago.

Keep sticking your fingers in your ears and pretending everything's fine.

LOL.


Let's apply your logic here.


The A League suffered a 43% drop in attendances between 2007 and 2011. That's without covid. According to your stunning logic that means the A League would have disappeared within 10 years (2021).


Yet in 2021 10 years after a 43% drop in attendances folllowing the financial crisis brought on by COVID the A League received a 140m investment by Silverlake.


Silverlake are one of the biggest private investment funds in the world. I'd love to hear your explanation why they deemed a 140m investment in a competition that you claim won't exist in 10 years to be prudent.


Also ridiculous to compare the NRL & AFL. They are the absolute elite level of both sports - A League isn't.


Why aren't you comparing attendances of the A League with the Saudi Pro League out of interest?

 

[Jatz]

 

[Zidane98]

Let's play a different tune.

Assuming the league is still going well, which current clubs won't exist in it? Which will? Newcastle seems all but gone. I'd expect the Mariners will be kicking around still, they're fantastic at punching above their weight. Perth really worries me, Brisbane the same. I don't think Macarthur will be there.

I'm not sure where you'd expand next. Canberra but financially I don't think that's proven to be viable. Tassie maybe?

Perth have just got a huge cash injection with a new owner. They're in a great position.


Macarhur suffered greatly by starting up during covid. They are owned by the local soccer clubs though with literally 10000 +juniors. I believe they all pay a levy to support the Rams so they easily can survive without any crowds pretty much.


Most of the league is in good shape ownership wise apart from Newcastle really.

 

[Jatz]

Perth have just got a huge cash injection with a new owner. They're in a great position.


Macarhur suffered greatly by starting up during covid. They are owned by the local soccer clubs though with literally 10000 +juniors. I believe they all pay a levy to support the Rams so they easily can survive without any crowds pretty much.


Most of the league is in good shape ownership wise apart from Newcastle really.

Money alone doesn't mean they're in a great position.

Why would you want a club to survive without crowds?

 

[Buckleys Jocks]

I don't think your prediction is that outrageous Jatz

I've been a season ticket holder with MVFC since 09 and I've seen plenty of other members that I know drop off and lose interest in recent years. I still go to as many games as I can but I find that the experience and overall atmosphere is just nowhere near as enjoyable as it used to be. At the end of every season I consider giving it up and at this point I'm only really keeping it alive because I want to support the game financially.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Don't think there's a football league I am more indifferent to than the A league.

 

[Jatz]

Don't think there's a football league I am more indifferent to than the A league.

If there was a team in Geelong would you be more interested?

I think one of the biggest challenges the domestic game has always faced is they haven't been able to translate the interest from the national sides or the European League followers into fans on a consistent basis.

 

[RPCB]

If there was a team in Geelong would you be more interested?

I think one of the biggest challenges the domestic game has always faced is they haven't been able to translate the interest from the national sides or the European League followers into fans on a consistent basis.

Oi! That is a trick question.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

If there was a team in Geelong would you be more interested?

I think one of the biggest challenges the domestic game has always faced is they haven't been able to translate the interest from the national sides or the European League followers into fans on a consistent basis.

It's a summer sport and that's the problem.

All Saturday home matches would be out for me with cricket. I am involved in our women's team so that rules out Sunday games too.

Reckon if they transitioned to a winter season sport they'd get next to no media attention with the sports pages filled with AFL and NRL

 

[Zidane98]

Money alone doesn't mean they're in a great position.

Why would you want a club to survive without crowds?

Nobody wants a club to survive without crowds. Just pointing out that Macarthur are financially secure and set for the future regardless of crowd numbers.

 

[Zidane98]

If there was a team in Geelong would you be more interested?

I think one of the biggest challenges the domestic game has always faced is they haven't been able to translate the interest from the national sides or the European League followers into fans on a consistent basis.

Trendy euro snob w***ers are an issue but ultimately they will eventually learn that going to the game and supporting your team regularly beats watching it on TV in the middle of the night.

 

[Jatz]

Trendy euro snob w***ers are an issue but ultimately they will eventually learn that going to the game and supporting your team regularly beats watching it on TV in the middle of the night.

No they won't. If they've not been converted yet, they won't be.

I think you'd find the vast majority of posters on this board aren't actively attending/following A League games. It's why we have a sub board for it.

 

[Zidane98]

No they won't. If they've not been converted yet, they won't be.

I think you'd find the vast majority of posters on this board aren't actively attending/following A League games. It's why we have a sub board for it.

If you love football ultimately you will want to be able to attend the live experience of attending in person. And only the A League can offer that.

With the largest junior sporting pool to draw from the future is bright because these replace the deluded euro snobs.

And need I mention how much better the women's game is compared to the AFL which is farcical compared to women's football.

 

[Zidane98]

If it turns out the AFL has been endorsing drug use I'll never attend a game again btw. I k ow many who feel the same.

 

[SM]

If it turns out the AFL has been endorsing drug use I'll never attend a game again btw. I k ow many who feel the same.

Where's the suggestion they've endorsed drug use? That's a bit of a 2 + 2 = 5 take.

 

[Zidane98]

Where's the suggestion they've endorsed drug use? That's a bit of a 2 + 2 = 5 take.

Giving immunity to players on the 3 strike rule if it's true.