The Pavlich question

[Crow-mo]

Just so we are all clear on what is happening, The Pav is signed until the end of the 2007 season and i wouldn't be surprised if we are already re-negotiating with him.

Just for the sake of a trade how about this one?

Pavlich => Adelaide
Johncock, Hentschel & 1st Rnd Pick => Fremantle

this year or next?

I'd do that this year, but not at end of 2007.

 

[Crow-mo]

You dont understand, you have him we might want him... if the price is right.

He's right, you're off base. it's a sellers market, he's under contract and they would rather keep him.

 

[Crow-mo]

Exactly

Just ask Port Adelaide if they felt like they were compensated after losing Josh Carr who went home to Fremantle.

Answer – Hell no.

Port got plenty for josh carr - freo's 1st 3 picks? jesus, that's a bloody good result.

Can't blame anyone if they didn't use them well.

 

[arrowman]

this year or next?

I'd do that this year, but not at end of 2007.

Fair call.

- I think "which means he has 3 years of good footy in him. tops." is a bit of an exaggeration. But not much of one.

Freo would want something like Hentschel + Johncock (or perhaps VB) plus a first round pick and that's too much for any one player, no matter who they are (OK, except Judd ). And we'd probably be prepared to pay one good player plus first round pick (this year, not next). The reality is that some players, like Pavlich, are simply "untradeable" because there is an inherent mismatch between their value to the "sending" club vs their value to the "receiving" club.

 

[Portia]

Just curious...

Is the Barry Hall trade the only "blockbuster" trade in the last decade that's actually panned out with a grand final appearance, let alone a premiership for the team with the new gun player?

Wakelin and Pickett should qualify. Alastair Lynch on a significant delay.

 

[Crow-mo]

Fair call.

- I think "which means he has 3 years of good footy in him. tops." is a bit of an exaggeration. But not much of one.

Freo would want something like Hentschel + Johncock (or perhaps VB) plus a first round pick and that's too much for any one player, no matter who they are (OK, except Judd ). And we'd probably be prepared to pay one good player plus first round pick (this year, not next). The reality is that some players, like Pavlich, are simply "untradeable" because there is an inherent mismatch between their value to the "sending" club vs their value to the "receiving" club.

you make a very good call about the inherent mismatch of value, I think you are probably right on that. Pavlich has certain token/talismanic values to the Freo footy club, beyond that of just a player.

However, again I would emphasise the CHF types who perform at the same elite level they made their name on, at age 28 and beyond are very few and far between. no player/position ages quicker than a CHF, in fact I would suggest it is not even close.

27 to me, seems to be about the cutoff. there is still a good player left behind, but the elite years tend to be over much after this.

 

[Stiffy_18]

you make a very good call about the inherent mismatch of value, I think you are probably right on that. Pavlich has certain token/talismanic values to the Freo footy club, beyond that of just a player.

However, again I would emphasise the CHF types who perform at the same elite level they made their name on, at age 28 and beyond are very few and far between. no player/position ages quicker than a CHF, in fact I would suggest it is not even close.

27 to me, seems to be about the cutoff. there is still a good player left behind, but the elite years tend to be over much after this.

Dermie was done by the age of 28.

Maybe Barry Hall is the one exception in recent times when he has probably played his best footy after the age of 28.

 

[Portia]

Freo would want something like Hentschel + Johncock (or perhaps VB) plus a first round pick and that's too much for any one player, no matter who they are

I guess it depends on how you look at it.

Hentschel, you would immediately improve upon by getting Pavlich
Johncock, while a loss, you wouldn't think is irreplaceable. You'd have a player 80% as good right now, wouldn't you? How good do you need a back flanker to be?
And then a first round pick, which won't matter for a few years yet anyway.

In return for a decrease in back flanker quality, and a small hit to long-term youth prospects, you get a much, much better key forward.

I think if that deal was offered, you'd be silly not to take it, quite frankly.

 

[Crow-mo]

Dermie was done by the age of 28.

Maybe Barry Hall is the one exception in recent times when he has probably played his best footy after the age of 28.

dermie was done by about 24!

I was just thinking about Barry Hall, and why is he is an exception? I think, it is probably because he was never an elite forward until later in his career and perhaps took less of a beating as a result? He is a real late developer, and maybe his body was more mature and developed by the time that the real strain came.

 

[- PC -]

There is a big difference in than with Simmonds. Richmond finished down the bottom so had a SPD pick as bargaining leverage whereas you would not have it if this arose

He's right, you're off base. it's a sellers market, he's under contract and they would rather keep him.

My scenario is about him being out of contract

And if Pav said ''nah screw you CC I'm out and I dont care where I go, and if a deal cant be made with Adelaide then I am in the PSD''

What does Fremantle do...and sacking Connolly is not an option

 

[Crow-mo]

My scenario is about him being out of contract

And if Pav said ''nah screw you CC I'm out and I dont care where I go, and if a deal cant be made with Adelaide then I am in the PSD''

What does Fremantle do...and sacking Connolly is not an option

fine, except for your scenario isn't real. he is under contract, and has made it clear he has not intention of screwing over fremantle.

So if he were a victorian player, who was out of contract, and didn't care much for his current team - maybe you have a point. but that's not what we're dealing with.

 

[The Crows Truth]

I disagree strongly with this.

Its funny how people always bring up the Carey trade and ask haven't we learnt anything from it. How about bringing up a Jarman trade that also involved a great young player AND draft picks. Do any of you have regrets there.

Pavlich is hardly a bandaid solution as you say. He is 24 FFS, he isn't a 32 year old Carey. Pavlich is yet to reach his peak. Some of you are making sound like he is in a wheelchair

You can have structure and what ever for as long as you like but over the years its proven that teams with gun key forward are the ones that win the big one. We won't develop one of those because our picks are not good enough to pinch one of that caliber. Our best bet is to trade for on.

Just for the record, Barry Hall was older when Sydney traded for him and I am sure that they haven't got a single ounce of regret for pulling the trigger then. They would do that trade million times over again.

Fact is that we have a 2 year window of opportunity to win something. As much as we are an even side, we still heavily rely on our big guns to lead the way. Goodwin and Edwards are our prime movers from our midfield, McLeod from our defence and Roo is our leading goal kicker. We can't expect these boys to have same level of performance. They will start to slow down and become bits players. We need to strike while the iron is hot and thats over the next 2 years. Miss this opportunity and it will be a while since we are there again. That is the cold hard truth about where we are.

excellent post Stiffs - I agree 100%

 

[Stiffy_18]

dermie was done by about 24!

I was just thinking about Barry Hall, and why is he is an exception? I think, it is probably because he was never an elite forward until later in his career and perhaps took less of a beating as a result? He is a real late developer, and maybe his body was more mature and developed by the time that the real strain came.

Well Pavlich is a bit of a similar story. Not because he is a late bloomer (3AA by the age of 24 certainly s on that theory) but because until last year, he hasn't played CHF on full time basis. He spent most of his early career with Freo as a CHB who was then moved to the midfield for a couple of years. He has only really played CHF full time last season and so far this year so he might still have more to offer than someone who has played CHF all their career (eg Brown)

 

[- PC -]

fine, except for your scenario isn't real. he is under contract, and has made it clear he has not intention of screwing over fremantle.

And I figured I made it clear he wouldnt come until he is out of contract, but fair enough if I didnt

Because bottom line is if Pavlich wants to leave Freo , not come to Adelaide like you think, then he will leave. Troy Simmonds ring a bell?

I figured it implied ''once his contract was up''

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Here we go again.

 

[Mad Dog]

Dermie was done by the age of 28.

Maybe Barry Hall is the one exception in recent times when he has probably played his best footy after the age of 28.

Each time I see those 2 strapped shoulders - thought of a trade makes me nervous

 

[CaptainDangerfield]

Each time I see those 2 strapped shoulders - thought of a trade makes me nervous

Agree. We had the oipportunity in 2002 and blew it. Time to move on. Freo would want 2 top 10 picks anyway, so it definately won't happen.

 

[marvin]

Wakelin and Pickett should qualify. Alastair Lynch on a significant delay.

Thanks - all fair calls.

It was genuine question, not my usual rhetorical one.