Strategy The Ratugolea Conundrum

[JohnZ]

CS freely said on Friday night that when he was dropped it was for soreness, and if he is healthy, he is a definite starter. Every week we play, which I hope is 2 this year.

I don't see how you could drop him for the prelim, and if we win then the same again for the granny. Do or die.

 

[STPer18]

He increases our odds,...shouldn't even be a questionable decision!...it has payed dividends especially now with Jeremy in there as well.
Their defense likes to control the air as most successful finals teams do, his job is, "disruptor of the intercept." and ground assist.

Gives Stanley a chop-out too while keeping Blicavs down back. He won't dominate but just needs to hold down the fort while Jackson is doing the ruck so Stanley doesn't conk out at 3/4 time again.

 

[Vdubs]

I don't see how you could drop him for the prelim, and if we win then the same again for the granny. Do or die.

He will not be dropped as long as he is fit and healthy.
That pleases me a lot.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Also…

View attachment 1226953

I can read between the lines of this stat.

We clearly need to bring back Josh Cowan.

 

[cats_09]

I can read between the lines of this stat.

We clearly need to bring back Josh Cowan.

Well he only ever lost 1 match...

 

[catempire]

I can read between the lines of this stat.

We clearly need to bring back Josh Cowan.

Nah, he’s 0% won in prelims.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Nah, he’s 0% won in prelims.

Yeh, but we were pretty good that day. Won 100 out of 120 minutes.

 

[catempire]

Yeh, but we were pretty good that day. Won 100 out of 120 minutes.

It was Gary Rohan’s best ever finals performance. ️️

 

[Nickoo]

This is spot on.

Sav wasn’t brought into the team against GWS because we needed him to beat the Giants. We were winning that game regardless of whether Sav played. He was included with an eye on the next 2 games where he will most certainly be needed. Against Melbourne he is needed as a forward target to try and stop them from dominating the air in our backline. He will also be another competent ruckman to throw against Gawn to give Stanley a break. People forget against Melbourne that Stanley was decent and then Gawn overwhelmed him late. Sav will give him a chop out and be a fresh body to throw against Gawn if he gets off the chain. This will also allow Blitz to stay down back. Our team is just much better structured when Sav is in the team, we just need him to play half-decent, which sometimes has been a challenge……

That’s perfect. Person ally though I’m with Benny Cass, we’ll probably lose in a 12 point valiant effort.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Generalissimo]

I can read between the lines of this stat.

We clearly need to bring back Josh Cowan.

I thought Cowan could have been OK. He was just so unlucky with injuries.

 

[goyoucatters]

Also…

View attachment 1226953

This is such a spurious stat in terms of assessing Rata's effectiveness as the 'intercept preventor'.

There's actually been a grand total of three games this year (including Friday night) where the structure has fitted what everyone is banging on with as being so 'successful' against the Giants. That is, Rhys in the ruck, Jez roaming free, and Rata supposedly occupying a quality interceptor for the opposition. Apart from that, we've never had the three of them playing those roles in any other games this season.

So we've beaten the team who finished second last (Pies), a team that finished tenth (Saints) and a seriously depleted SF opponent (Giants) with this set-up. Surely only the last of those could even be considered in our top five wins of the year. Yet there's apparently compelling evidence already of how much better this makes us as a team.

3-0 is a handy record, of course. And I'm very much hoping it can become 5-0 with this trio playing those particular roles, given the club has clearly committed to this path. But surely everyone must admit that the 12-2 v. 5-5 is quite a subjective (and largely irrelevant) means of analysing the appropriate data to talk up how 'well' our SF forward structure will serve us in the remainder of 2021.

 

[nohairandfair]

This is such a spurious stat in terms of assessing Rata's effectiveness as the 'intercept preventor'.

There's actually been a grand total of three games this year (including Friday night) where the structure has fitted what everyone is banging on with as being so 'successful' against the Giants. That is, Rhys in the ruck, Jez roaming free, and Rata supposedly occupying a quality interceptor for the opposition. Apart from that, we've never had the three of them playing those roles in any other games this season.

So we've beaten the team who finished second last (Pies), a team that finished tenth (Saints) and a seriously depleted SF opponent (Giants) with this set-up. Surely only the last of those could even be considered in our top five wins of the year. Yet there's apparently compelling evidence already of how much better this makes us as a team.

3-0 is a handy record, of course. And I'm very much hoping it can become 5-0 with this trio playing those particular roles, given the club has clearly committed to this path. But surely everyone must admit that the 12-2 v. 5-5 is quite a subjective (and largely irrelevant) means of analysing the appropriate data to talk up how 'well' our SF forward structure will serve us in the remainder of 2021.

Look he's only averaged around 5 disposals, 1 mark, 1 tackle, 1 goal and 3 hit outs over the last month but you can't measure how well he guards grass. Stats just don't tell you everything.

 

[Mr Meow]

This is such a spurious stat in terms of assessing Rata's effectiveness as the 'intercept preventor'.

There's actually been a grand total of three games this year (including Friday night) where the structure has fitted what everyone is banging on with as being so 'successful' against the Giants. That is, Rhys in the ruck, Jez roaming free, and Rata supposedly occupying a quality interceptor for the opposition. Apart from that, we've never had the three of them playing those roles in any other games this season.

So we've beaten the team who finished second last (Pies), a team that finished tenth (Saints) and a seriously depleted SF opponent (Giants) with this set-up. Surely only the last of those could even be considered in our top five wins of the year. Yet there's apparently compelling evidence already of how much better this makes us as a team.

3-0 is a handy record, of course. And I'm very much hoping it can become 5-0 with this trio playing those particular roles, given the club has clearly committed to this path. But surely everyone must admit that the 12-2 v. 5-5 is quite a subjective (and largely irrelevant) means of analysing the appropriate data to talk up how 'well' our SF forward structure will serve us in the remainder of 2021.

Sav in the side (as I believe they will set up) means Blicavs back permanently and hopefully in the imperious key backman form he displayed in the SF as opposed to his finals "Mr (I Can't) Fix It" utility role disasters. For that reason, along with a reduction in opponent intercepts and more freedom for Hawk/Cameron, I see Esava as absolutely crucial for Geelong's chance at a premiership.

 

[goyoucatters]

Sav in the side (as I believe they will set up) means Blicavs back permanently and hopefully in the imperious key backman form he displayed in the SF as opposed to his finals "Mr (I Can't) Fix It" utility role disasters. For that reason, along with a reduction in opponent intercepts and more freedom for Hawk/Cameron, I see Esava as absolutely crucial for Geelong's chance at a premiership.

I entirely agree with you that the major benefit of having Esava in the team is freeing Blitz to play his best role for the entire game. Just think the narrative about how much of a difference he makes to our forward line potency is based off really limited data and is significantly overblown.

 

[Mr Meow]

I entirely agree with you that the major benefit of having Esava in the team is freeing Blitz to play his best role for the entire game. Just think the narrative about how much of a difference he makes to our forward line potency is based off really limited data and is significantly overblown.

Ah right, gotcha. I was quite critical of his form earlier in the year - might have been similar low stats to now, but he simply wasn't getting to the right spots and at least squaring contests/helping out around the ground. I think all year his ruck and follow up work has declined. His goal kicking remains questionable and certainly this season he hasn't been clunking as many marks as he should have been. So your point has merit.

I just think at this particular time, if he does what he did on Friday (plus a bit more) his presence and what it will do for the team will be a sizeable net benefit compared to say the Port game without him. He still has that X factor potential too but it's little things like I believe it takes some pressure off Rohan who hasn't been a great marking option of late - he can revert to speeding dynamo. Anyway, we'll see. I'm bullish on what Sav means for Geelong for one, hopefully two more games this season.

 

[jim boy]

has there ever been a player as lauded as Ratugolea who only gets as many possessions as you can count on one hand and manages to butcher those?

 

[goyoucatters]

Ah right, gotcha. I was quite critical of his form earlier in the year - might have been similar low stats to now, but he simply wasn't getting to the right spots and at least squaring contests/helping out around the ground. I think all year his ruck and follow up work has declined. His goal kicking remains questionable and certainly this season he hasn't been clunking as many marks as he should have been. So your point has merit.

I just think at this particular time, if he does what he did on Friday (plus a bit more) his presence and what it will do for the team will be a sizeable net benefit compared to say the Port game without him. He still has that X factor potential too but it's little things like I believe it takes some pressure off Rohan who hasn't been a great marking option of late - he can revert to speeding dynamo. Anyway, we'll see. I'm bullish on what Sav means for Geelong for one, hopefully two more games this season.

I actually can't help but smile when people raise questions like 'Is that the most influential five-possession game in the history of football?'

The question itself already just about tells you everything you need to know about how 'influential' that player's game has really been. Five possessions is just about the dictionary definition of negligible influence. At least that's what we were often told on here during Dahl's 2021 season, for example, despite him averaging twice that amount throughout the year.

 

[goyoucatters]

has there ever been a player as lauded as Ratugolea who only gets as many possessions as you can count on one hand and manages to butcher those?

The criteria you've outlined makes for a very small sample size, I admit.

But I would still probably have to say 'No'.

 

[Mr Meow]

I actually can't help but smile when people raise questions like 'Is that the most influential five-possession game in the history of football?'

The question itself already just about tells you everything you need to know about how 'influential' that player's game has really been. Five possessions is just about the dictionary definition of negligible influence. At least that's what we were often told on here during Dahl's 2021 season, for example, despite him averaging twice that amount throughout the year.

Depends. As a key position defender in some competitive teams some of my best games were probably 5-10 possession ones where my opponent didn't get a sniff. A small forward can break a game open with a few touches. Sav isn't in either of those categories but I have no doubt he can play a more beneficial role for the team's overall output than most 21st/22nd players we'd pick. I like our forward line with him in the team and I like the backline set up we go with when he's in the team. For me this isn't about Esava's statistical contribution, it comes down to is Chris Scott making the correct selection decision. He absolutely is in this case.

For your little Dahlhaus snippet by the way, I have no doubt Holmes stats suffer compared to Dahl but I also think he's more valuable in the team - erratic tendencies and all, rather than another slow plodder up forward whose "pressure" game has not actually been that strong the past couple of years.

 

[goyoucatters]

Depends. As a key position defender in some competitive teams some of my best games were probably 5-10 possession ones where my opponent didn't get a sniff. A small forward can break a game open with a few touches. Sav isn't in either of those categories but I have no doubt he can play a more beneficial role for the team's overall output than most 21st/22nd players we'd pick. I like our forward line with him in the team and I like the backline set up we go with when he's in the team. For me this isn't about Esava's statistical contribution, it comes down to is Chris Scott making the correct selection decision. He absolutely is in this case.

For your little Dahlhaus snippet by the way, I have no doubt Holmes stats suffer compared to Dahl but I also think he's more valuable in the team - erratic tendencies and all, rather than another slow plodder up forward whose "pressure" game has not actually been that strong the past couple of years.

Again, I can just about agree with this. But really only because his inclusion is then allowing a 'top 6' player at the club to perform in his best role, rather than because Esava is actually going to provide more meaningful output that the 21st or 22nd player otherwise selected.

Correct selection decision for overall team balance? Quite possibly. Vital player for what they themselves are adding to the mix? Not so you'd notice.

And, like you, I'd have Holmes ahead of Dahl at this point as well. After all, neither of them can reliably kick goals so I'd definitely prefer the player with some real zip and ability to cover the ground at speed. Max can also go into the middle of the ground and provide a real contest there as well. Really pleased he's getting games in this finals series.

 

[BORIS332]

has there ever been a player as lauded as Ratugolea who only gets as many possessions as you can count on one hand and manages to butcher those?

80% disposal efficiency, and 60% of his touches were score involvements. Give me more of that butchering, please.

 

[catempire]

 

[cats_09]

View attachment 1228433

Not sure if I've noticed it before, but halfway though his run up he starts to swing to his right - almost lining up perfectly to kick a behind to the right

He doesn't kick around his body as much as Miers does, but wonder if he has that sort of run up every time

 

[PzBlinky]

Look he's only averaged around 5 disposals, 1 mark, 1 tackle, 1 goal and 3 hit outs over the last month but you can't measure how well he guards grass. Stats just don't tell you everything.

Hey, if Cyril can build a reputation as "the best 7 possession game you'll see", why can't Rata?

 

[My Tilly]

Play him down back. He ain't doing anything up forward with the two big boys there for another year or more.
Blicavs is the only tall left.