Strategy The run home

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We can sugarcoat it all we like but Essendon's best footy is as good as anyone's but its average or poor footy is bottom eight standard. The good sides do win the close ones against the good sides, and easily beat the poor sides but historically this time of season tends to throw up upsets where a struggling side will win one against a top team.
 
Bombermania said:
We can sugarcoat it all we like but Essendon's best footy is as good as anyone's but its average or poor footy is bottom eight standard. The good sides do win the close ones against the good sides, and easily beat the poor sides but historically this time of season tends to throw up upsets where a struggling side will win one against a top team.
Click to expand...

Just never clicks for us we either really good or really poor or we have a stack of injuries.

Our team is all over the shop.
 

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eth-dog said:
He said good sides smashed s**t sides and won close games against good sides. 2/3 of the sides they had tight games against finished outside the 8 including the wooden spooners. I'm pointing out facts to suggest that the sky isn't falling, that's all.
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The sky isn't falling but the sun isn't rising either, it's just another classic Essendon limping into finals season.

It's been like this for 15 years
 
We need 3 things to happen to be locked in.
If Port lose to Sydney, we beat Bulldogs and St Kilda beat Fremantle, then we cannot mathematically drop out of the 8. Finals will be locked in.
From there (assuming Adelaide lose to West Coast next week), we only need to beat one of Fremantle and Collingwood to be locked into 7th spot.

We need to hope that GWS and Richmond keep winning so that we avoid them and play Collingwood week 1.
 
I can understand a certain level of pessimism regarding our finals aspirations/possible performance should we qualify. We haven't exactly covered ourselves in glory in 3 of our last 4 elimination finals.

But I don't understand the posters who are so sure that if we do qualify, we are going to get belted again. I'm not saying that we won't get embarrassed again, but atleast have some faith in the team ffs. There are still 3 games left in the season, so there is plenty of time for us to regain some players and find some form.

We aren't going to win the flag this year, but there is every chance that if we do make finals, we can cause a bit of damage.
 

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Depth was severely tested this year.
And finals looked lost very early. To get back into contention minus so many best 22 players for the length we've lost them for is admirable.

Make finals or not, we really need to address the slow starts and injury management that hampered us early.

Have the list to do damage
Felt we discovered a hard edged mentality for a bit there. Eventually it was going to run dry in terms of wins.

Next 3 are still winnable though. a Rd23 win into finals would be great for some belief.

Really didn't help being the only team this year to travel on the Sunday evening, then play so early on Saturday (and not play the following sunday at home). Cheers schedulers. Appreciate that, and the 2 trips to Perth....
 
Matthew_Lloyd said:
I can understand a certain level of pessimism regarding our finals aspirations/possible performance should we qualify. We haven't exactly covered ourselves in glory in 3 of our last 4 elimination finals.

But I don't understand the posters who are so sure that if we do qualify, we are going to get belted again. I'm not saying that we won't get embarrassed again, but atleast have some faith in the team ffs. There are still 3 games left in the season, so there is plenty of time for us to regain some players and find some form.

We aren't going to win the flag this year, but there is every chance that if we do make finals, we can cause a bit of damage.
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I believe that sentiment stems from the fact that we aren't very good. And there is daylight between us and the 6 teams above us.
 
We have our worst player in our most critical spot.
If we aren't chasing Goldstein then this club isn't going to hurt anyone short term

Draper would learn from Gold. Give him two years

Everyone will exploit us
Eventually we will run out of belief. 2019 the sun is setting

I'd be backing dogs 40+ if they didn't get bruised on a Sund in brisbane
 
JayJ20 said:
We need 3 things to happen to be locked in.
If Port lose to Sydney, we beat Bulldogs and St Kilda beat Fremantle, then we cannot mathematically drop out of the 8. Finals will be locked in.
From there (assuming Adelaide lose to West Coast next week), we only need to beat one of Fremantle and Collingwood to be locked into 7th spot.

We need to hope that GWS and Richmond keep winning so that we avoid them and play Collingwood week 1.
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I like that analysis, i’ve Just got this nagging feeling that the Crows will pull out an upset against West Coast just to p*ss us off
 
Xavier Menzies said:
We have our worst player in our most critical spot.
If we aren't chasing Goldstein then this club isn't going to hurt anyone short term

Draper would learn from Gold. Give him two years

Everyone will exploit us
Eventually we will run out of belief. 2019 the sun is setting

I'd be backing dogs 40+ if they didn't get bruised on a Sund in brisbane
Click to expand...
Agree that Clarke is poor and it's hurting us but ruck being the most critical spot? Don't agree at all. Look at some first choice ruckmen who have won flags over recent years - Toby Nankervis, Jordan Roughead, David Hale & much worse (Brent Renouf) if you go further back than that.

You only need to break even in the ruck. Bellchambers has done fine & had a decent career without being in the top 5 rucks around and if they're fit there's nothing wrong with him and Draper as back up with Draper eventually transitioning to first choice ruckman. Clarke was only ever a break glass in case of emergency type and this is that situation. He was passable vs North and stunk otherwise. Goldstein & Bellchambers couldn't run around together, do you expect Bellchambers to play 2s in that situation? Draper to stay around as VFL second choice ruckman? As there are no guarantees on Bellchambers & Draper's fitness I think we do need another depth option on our list, somewhere between Bellchambers & Clarke in terms of quality and above Draper in terms of experience rather than an upgrade on Bellchambers.. maybe Longer from St Kilda pending his concussion issues, he's not great but he's better than Clarke imo and will likely be on his way out at the end of this year.
 
Unfortunately I think it's a huge chance that we drop all 3.

If Port play like they did on the weekend, I expect them to jump us.
Having said that, even without winning another game/winning one, we may do just enough to hold on. Adelaide have a hard 3 weeks, and I believe the dogs are 2 games and % behind us, and still have GWS away to go.

I think both us losing the last 3 AND us still making it is a legitimate chance; but ultimately, if you sneak into the finals with a bunch of close wins and then a 4-game losing streak to teams 9th, 10th and 11th...you're probably wasting your time.
 
Dogs and Freo games are gonna be ugly.

Tough, hard running teams.
Pies will have a massive chance to end the finals for us.

On the bright side, reckon Rd23 is gonna be nuts for results impacting the 8

Freo v Port and Dogs v Crows - 4 contenders all likely battling for a spot.

----
Current best case scenario
Win next 3
GWS drop games to Hawks and Dogs

Rd23:
Dogs beat the Crows
Freo beat Port

Host the Crows from 5th.
 
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