Strategy The run home

[vass44]

If we play like we did against Port we are a big chance to drop all 3 of the remaining games - none of them are easy. Bulldogs our biggest chance but they are in decent form, Freo just beat Geelong over there so they’d be pretty confident of beating us, and Collingwood will start favourites against us - even if they don’t play well the umps will get them over the line


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[pepsi]

Given our poor % compared to port and Adelaide, we'll need to finish a game ahead of them to make the finals. Looking like we'll need to win 2 of the last 3 to make it.

 

[DapperJong]

We could lose all the remaining games.

I reckon we just need to win 1 of them.

 

[eth-dog]

Christ people get negative very easily. We've still won 8 of our last 10 and 5 from 6 despite some poor form and injuries, whereas our opponents have gone:

WB: 5-5 and 4-2
Freo: 5-5 and 2-4
Pies: 5-5 and 2-4

Only the Dogs have anything resembling good form over that period of time. Adelaide's form is far from stellar and have games against West Coast (L), Collingwood (50/50) and Bulldogs (50/50) to come, if the Bulldogs lose today (highly likely) they'll be a game and % out of the 8 and probably miss and maybe start blooding new players

 

[Old Campaigner]

Christ people get negative very easily. We've still won 8 of our last 10 and 5 from 6 despite some poor form and injuries, whereas our opponents have gone:

WB: 5-5 and 4-2
Freo: 5-5 and 2-4
Pies: 5-5 and 2-4

Only the Dogs have anything resembling good form over that period of time. Adelaide's form is far from stellar and have games against West Coast (L), Collingwood (50/50) and Bulldogs (50/50) to come, if the Bulldogs lose today (highly likely) they'll be a game and % out of the 8 and probably miss and maybe start blooding new players

How many of the 5 of the last 6 that we have won have we fallen over the line? That doesn’t really inspire much confidence

 

[owen87]

Christ people get negative very easily. We've still won 8 of our last 10 and 5 from 6 despite some poor form and injuries, whereas our opponents have gone:

WB: 5-5 and 4-2
Freo: 5-5 and 2-4
Pies: 5-5 and 2-4

Only the Dogs have anything resembling good form over that period of time. Adelaide's form is far from stellar and have games against West Coast (L), Collingwood (50/50) and Bulldogs (50/50) to come, if the Bulldogs lose today (highly likely) they'll be a game and % out of the 8 and probably miss and maybe start blooding new players

Close wins are effectively a roll of the dice, just as likely we’d lose half those games if we had the last 2 minutes again.

I do think we’re still more likely than not to grab a win somewhere and play finals, but our form is hardly inspiring.

 

[eth-dog]

How many of the 5 of the last 6 that we have won have we fallen over the line? That doesn’t really inspire much confidence

As many as Collingwood. Good teams win close games.

Close wins are effectively a roll of the dice, just as likely we’d lose half those games if we had the last 2 minutes again.

I do think we’re still more likely than not to grab a win somewhere and play finals, but our form is hardly inspiring.

Not really. When you look at last year, West Coast went 5-1 in games under 2 goals. Good sides win tight games, that's always been the way. In previous years we've whinged about the inabiity to win close games and rightly so, now that we're showing we can do it we're whinging about that too?

 

[JayJ20]

As many as Collingwood. Good teams win close games.

Not really. When you look at last year, West Coast went 5-1 in games under 2 goals. Good sides win tight games, that's always been the way. In previous years we've whinged about the inabiity to win close games and rightly so, now that we're showing we can do it we're whinging about that too?

It’s not whinging about it. It’s the reality. Winning close games isn’t necessarily the problem. That’s great for us. The issue is falling 5 goals behind, playing two quarters, falling over the line and thinking we’re in good form.

As we saw yesterday, that came to bite us.

 

[DapperDon]

As many as Collingwood. Good teams win close games.

Not really. When you look at last year, West Coast went 5-1 in games under 2 goals. Good sides win tight games, that's always been the way. In previous years we've whinged about the inabiity to win close games and rightly so, now that we're showing we can do it we're whinging about that too?

Good teams win tight games against good teams and good teams win comfortably against poor teams.

We aren't a good team

 

[owen87]

Not really. When you look at last year, West Coast went 5-1 in games under 2 goals. Good sides win tight games, that's always been the way. In previous years we've whinged about the inabiity to win close games and rightly so, now that we're showing we can do it we're whinging about that too?

There’s quite literally stats by one of the footy maths folk that shows close games are a dice roll from one year to the next.

Saying “oh we’re a 5 from the last 6 team” drastically misleads the form we’ve been in. We’ve been average at best, playing against sides with an inability to capitalise on it.

 

[Jobe Watson]

We'd have to seriously ESSINGTON to not make finals from here.

ESSATON MODE ENGAGED

 

[MiguelM]

Pies doing a demolition job on Suns. 7th 8th or lower for us IMO

 

[eth-dog]

It’s not whinging about it. It’s the reality. Winning close games isn’t necessarily the problem. That’s great for us. The issue is falling 5 goals behind, playing two quarters, falling over the line and thinking we’re in good form.

As we saw yesterday, that came to bite us.

Yes it is. Past few years it's been "Why can't we win close games?" And this year it's "Yeah but we're falling over the line." It is whinging.

Good teams win tight games against good teams and good teams win comfortably against poor teams.

We aren't a good team

Last year West Coasts games under 2 goals came against 18th, 14th, 12th, 10th, 6th and 2nd. Lost games to 3 sides that finished outside the 8 by an average margin of 26 points. You were saying?

There’s quite literally stats by one of the footy maths folk that shows close games are a dice roll from one year to the next.

Saying “oh we’re a 5 from the last 6 team” drastically misleads the form we’ve been in. We’ve been average at best, playing against sides with an inability to capitalise on it.

No it isn't. It's a statement of fact to say the sky isn't falling like many people are suggesting. We lost to a side that have beaten the top 2 sides this year and all of a sudden the sky is falling. We've won as many games in our last 6 as our upcoming opponents have from their last 10.

 

[Seagrave_Holmes]

Not confident for any of the last 3 games. The team is quite possibly cooked and might limp into finals only to be brushed aside like a pretender.

 

[JayJ20]

Yes it is. Past few years it's been "Why can't we win close games?" And this year it's "Yeah but we're falling over the line." It is whinging.

Last year West Coasts games under 2 goals came against 18th, 14th, 12th, 10th, 6th and 2nd. Lost games to 3 sides that finished outside the 8 by an average margin of 26 points. You were saying?

No it isn't. It's a statement of fact. We lost to a side that have beaten the top 2 sides this year and all of a sudden the sky is falling. We've won as many games in our last 6 as our upcoming opponents have from their last 10.

How many teams did West Coast smash?

I don't think we're s**t. I just don't think we're good enough to be beating teams like Collingwood and GWS (our two probable opponents) in finals. Scraping wins doesn't change that.

 

[eDPS]

Watching what pies are doing to the suns and after our performance yesterday there are some serious warnings signs, captain obvious stuff but we really need to turn it around and massively next week. We are a long way off and if Woosha does want us to start playing a finals standard game he needs to show he can get that out of this side.

 

[eth-dog]

How many teams did West Coast smash?

I don't think we're s**t. I just don't think we're good enough to be beating teams like Collingwood and GWS (our two probable opponents) in finals. Scraping wins doesn't change that.

He said good sides smashed s**t sides and won close games against good sides. 2/3 of the sides they had tight games against finished outside the 8 including the wooden spooners. I'm pointing out facts to suggest that the sky isn't falling, that's all.

 

[JayJ20]

He said good sides smashed s**t sides and won close games against good sides. 2/3 of the sides they had tight games against finished outside the 8 including the wooden spooners. I'm pointing out facts to suggest that the sky isn't falling, that's all.

It isn't, but we desperately need to win against Bulldogs to keep us 2 games clear (assuming that dogs lose today).

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

You think getting smashed in the middle was bad against Port wait till the Dogs destroy us.

Our form line over the last 5 weeks wasn't fooling anyone easily could have been 5 losses.

We will lose the the next 3 games and miss playing finals.

 

[eth-dog]

You think getting smashed in the middle was bad against Port wait till the Dogs destroy us.

Our form line over the last 5 weeks wasn't fooling anyone easily could have been 5 losses.

We will lose the the next 3 games and miss playing finals.

They've gone 3-4 against teams inside the top 8 this year. Your ability to latch on to any negative is amazing.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

They've gone 3-4 against teams inside the top 8 this year. Your ability to latch on to any negative is amazing.

Not being negative it's called being realistic you think I want us to fail and lose games? I want us to be successful more than anything. It's bloody frustrating seeing a team like Brisbane get their s**t together while Essendon has been trying for the last 15 years.

 

[Matthew_Lloyd]

You think getting smashed in the middle was bad against Port wait till the Dogs destroy us.

Our form line over the last 5 weeks wasn't fooling anyone easily could have been 5 losses.

We will lose the the next 3 games and miss playing finals.

B4L, didn't you say you would never doubt this team again a week or two ago?

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

B4L, didn't you say you would never doubt this team again a week or two ago?

I knew that comment will come back to haunt me

 

[eth-dog]

Not being negative it's called being realistic you think I want us to fail and lose games? I want us to be successful more than anything. It's bloody frustrating seeing a team like Brisbane get their s**t together while Essendon has been trying for the last 15 years.

No it is being negative. I'm sick of people saying "oh it's just B4L being B4L" but any opportunity that's there you take the chance to be negative. Realism would be a reaction that is disappointed at a bad loss, which it was, but not dismissive of the previous 5 wins.

 

[yodellinhank]

Sky fell ages ago. If you can't see that it's because your head is stuck in the clouds.