Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

What does the next 6 weeks look like

  • 6 & 0

    Votes: 7 11.9%

  • 5 & 1

    Votes: 2 3.4%

  • 4 & 2

    Votes: 11 18.6%

  • 3 & 3

    Votes: 21 35.6%

  • 2 & 4

    Votes: 14 23.7%

  • 1 & 5

    Votes: 2 3.4%

  • 0 & 6

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • Total voters
    59

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Lore said:
Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it
Click to expand...


For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

squiggle.com.au

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping
squiggle.com.au squiggle.com.au
 
Last edited:
I’d be happy not to make finals. I think it would be better for us long term. Looks like we are seriously fading anyway which is not surprising with a lot of young players still building up their fitness base.
 
Bombers36 said:
Am I a little hopeful? Sure I’ll own up to that - that’s because we are one of 6 teams competing for the bottom 2 spots in the 8 and if we beat Sydney on Saturday we are probably in.
Delusional- certainly not - delusional would be completely writing us off now with 5 games to go when anything is possible


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Click to expand...
Delusional would be watching us the past fortnight and thinking that we're anywhere close to being in good form and likely to make finals. We should beat West Coast and North but the other 3 have been much better recently.
 
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WLD%
1.Collingwood2120134.9%
2.Port Adelaide1940116.6%
3.Brisbane Lions1760127.5%
4.Melbourne1580122.3%
5.Western Bulldogs1490109.5%
6.Carlton1391116.6%
7.Geelong12101119.2%
8.Essendon1211099.5%
9.GWS1211098.4%
10.Richmond1111198.5%
11.Adelaide11120111.7%
12.Sydney10121109.4%
13.St Kilda1013098.8%
14.Gold Coast914091.6%
15.Fremantle815088.0%
16.Hawthorn716080.6%
17.North Melbourne221068.3%
18.West Coast221053.6%
QF1: COLLINGWOOD v Melbourne
QF2: PORT ADELAIDE v Brisbane Lions
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v Essendon
EF2: Carlton v GEELONG

SF1: MELBOURNE v Western Bulldogs
SF2: Brisbane Lions v GEELONG

PF1: COLLINGWOOD v Geelong
PF2: PORT ADELAIDE v Melbourne

GF: COLLINGWOOD v Port Adelaide
 
WLD%
1.Collingwood2120134.5%
2.Port Adelaide1850116.3%
3.Brisbane Lions1760128.8%
4.Melbourne1670126.1%
5.Western Bulldogs1490109.1%
6.Geelong1391121.0%
7.Carlton12101114.1%
8.GWS1211099.5%
9.Sydney11111109.0%
10.Richmond1111199.5%
11.Adelaide11120111.0%
12.St Kilda1112098.8%
13.Essendon1112098.6%
14.Gold Coast914091.2%
15.Fremantle815086.7%
16.Hawthorn617079.9%
17.North Melbourne221068.4%
18.West Coast221053.4%
QF1: COLLINGWOOD v Melbourne
QF2: PORT ADELAIDE v Brisbane Lions
EF1: WESTERN BULLDOGS v GWS
EF2: GEELONG v Carlton

SF1: MELBOURNE v Western Bulldogs
SF2: BRISBANE LIONS v Geelong

PF1: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions
PF2: PORT ADELAIDE v Melbourne
 
5th to 11th in 3 weeks. What a club!
 
5th to 12th run home:

Bulldogs (40, 106%): GWS (50/50), Ric (50/50), Haw (W), WC (W), Gee (50/50)
St Kilda (40, 105%): Haw (W), Car (50/50), Ric (50/50), Gee (50/50), Bri (L)
GWS (40, 102%): WB (50/50), Syd (50/50), PA (L), Ess (50/50), Car (50/50)
Geelong (38, 121%): Fre (W), PA (L), Col (L), St K (50/50), WB (50/50)
Carlton (38, 116%): Col (L), St K (50/50), Mel (L), GC (W), GWS (50/50)
Richmond (38, 99%): Mel (L), WB (50/50), St K (50/50), NM (W), PA (L)
Essendon (36, 99%): Syd (50/50), WC (W), NM (W), GWS (50/50), Col (L)
Sydney (34, 112%): Ess (50/50), GWS (50/50), GC (W), Ade (W), Mel (L)

Just for convenience (unlikely to happen, though) I'm splitting everyone's 50/50's (Dogs 1/2, St Kilda 1/2) so they all end up as:

Dogs 52
Geelong 50
St Kilda 48
GWS 48
Ess 48
Carlton 46
Richmond 46
Sydney 46

That being said, if we lose this week it makes it very tough.
 
ant555 said:
The soft draw has turned a bit. Swans back in decent form and GWS now winning 6 in a row.
Click to expand...
yeah
it was never really a soft draw imo
lot's of tests against sides you want to be better than if you're going to make a splash in finals

1/4 in that period (last test is v. Swans)
Cats, Dogs & Freo losses stamped our papers for me. I'd shift into '24/development mode now
Keep Bryan and Cox in. Expose Tsatas off sub bench. Keep running Perkins through the middle.
Menzie, Davey & Wanganeen into the side as the small fleet
Baldwin to FB, Zerk to CHB, Lav to Ridley role.

If we slide, we improve the draft hand. Particularly with two key FA's still yet to sign.
The sharp end of the draft looks worthwhile dropping into
I'd still give the season a solid C+ if we win 0 to 2 more from here on out.
 

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citizen-erased said:
yeah
it was never really a soft draw imo
lot's of tests against sides you want to be better than if you're going to make a splash in finals

1/4 in that period (last test is v. Swans)
Cats, Dogs & Freo losses stamped our papers for me. I'd shift into '24/development mode now
Keep Bryan and Cox in. Expose Tsatas off sub bench. Keep running Perkins through the middle.
Menzie, Davey & Wanganeen into the side as the small fleet
Baldwin to FB, Zerk to CHB, Lav to Ridley role.

If we slide, we improve the draft hand. Particularly with two key FA's still yet to sign.
The sharp end of the draft looks worthwhile dropping into
I'd still give the season a solid C+ if we win 0 to 2 more from here on out.
Click to expand...

To the contrary, part of developing is having the team overcome down periods.

If we just give up after a couple of rough matches then that does way more harm for development than good.
 
The Prosecutor said:
To the contrary, part of developing is having the team overcome down periods.

If we just give up after a couple of rough matches then that does way more harm for development than good.
Click to expand...
i wouldn't call it giving up, but we're hitting a critical off-season with limited exposure to a few lads that we'd want to have plans around.
 
citizen-erased said:
yeah
it was never really a soft draw imo
lot's of tests against sides you want to be better than if you're going to make a splash in finals

1/4 in that period (last test is v. Swans)
Cats, Dogs & Freo losses stamped our papers for me. I'd shift into '24/development mode now
Keep Bryan and Cox in. Expose Tsatas off sub bench. Keep running Perkins through the middle.
Menzie, Davey & Wanganeen into the side as the small fleet
Baldwin to FB, Zerk to CHB, Lav to Ridley role.

If we slide, we improve the draft hand. Particularly with two key FA's still yet to sign.
The sharp end of the draft looks worthwhile dropping into
I'd still give the season a solid C+ if we win 0 to 2 more from here on out.
Click to expand...
A soft draw isn't all that soft in a close competition
 
Can be back in with Melb beating Richmond and someone kicking enough goals tonight to get the 4 points. Thanks Freo. Might be a Hawthorn beating Stkilda issue
 
Last edited:
If Freo turn it around after this win (and no reason for them to tank considering they don't have their first rounder) we could finish on 11 wins and get Pick 5

We attended finals with 11 wins in 2021 lol....

Please trade next years 1st round for gold coast pick 4, also please fire dodoro.

Maxabillions said:
I’d be happy not to make finals. I think it would be better for us long term. Looks like we are seriously fading anyway which is not surprising with a lot of young players still building up their fitness base.
Click to expand...
Agreed.

We make finals in 7th or 8th and get spanked by whoever it is and we're just a treadmill team.

3 wins - Pick 1
12 wins - Spanked by Sydney - Traded out of Pick 11
12 wins - Traded out of Pick 11
12 wins - Spanked by West Coast - Traded out of Pick 14
6 wins - Pick 8 (Plus 9 & 10)
11 wins - Spanked by Doggies - Pick 13 - New Coach
7 wins - Pick 5
11-12 wins - Pick 5-10 - New Coach

We haven't added enough high end elite talent because we haven't been bad enough..... having 4 more wins compared to last year and the close to the same pic is good in the long run. Going 12 wins 3 times in a row and trading all those first round picks out while getting spanked twice and missing finals once isn;t.
 
Interesting article about Essendon this year, supposedly an inside-ish view.

This is the section about our road to finals (I'm posting other parts of this article in the relevant threads):

Dan Houston nailed his moment while Andrew Phillips couldn’t seize the day.

Twice Essendon has taken on Port Adelaide this year with the game resting on a player’s boot in the final minute.

Phillips’ shot from 50m to tie the contest fell short and the moment was lost.

Yet Houston’s 60m bomb broke the goal line – and Bomber hearts – over a pack of despairing defenders in one of the year’s most dramatic images.

For a modicum of luck an Essendon side with a 9-9 win-loss record could already have half a foot in September with those two extra wins.

The naysayers and frustrated Dons keen to break a 19-year finals drought will have an easy comeback.

Essendon might have beaten Melbourne, taken it up to Brisbane early at the Gabba and held a 28-point Anzac Day lead over Collingwood, but they still only have only two scalps of top-eight sides.

Those sliding doors moments encapsulate a season of huge internal growth that still has Essendon teetering after four losses in the past five weeks with a team that might have hit the wall.

It is why Essendon needs to bank wins over West Coast and North Melbourne and take one more scalp – either GWS or Sydney – to frank that development with a rare finals berth.

So where is Essendon placed as it attempts to hit the line hard — off the field, with its on field growth and with the out-of-contract players it still needs to re-sign.
Click to expand...
 
Call Me Cake said:
If we had dropped our heads and lost by a big margin I'd have said it was over.

But we're still in with a sniff. Probably more-so than we were in that last quarter.

And to still have that chance despite dropping 3 of the last 4 is a testament to how well our effort throughout the year was.

NOT DONE YET
Click to expand...

Honestly think 3 wins from here could be enough. Really comes down to the gws game. Have the cats missing as they have port, pies, saints and dogs. Saints swans and tigers miss. 8th spot could be us or gws in that 2nd last game.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
July hasn't been kind to us - the 4 point loss with that kick after siren to Port, then the 2 point loss to Swans last night probably seals our fate as far as finals go. Amazingly though we are only a game and 5 or 6% off 7th spot..!!! Agree now its probably best to tank it out and get some picks, play the youth and try set up for 2024
 
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