Team Mgmt. 2024 Forward Line

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Did he get dropped last year? Or was he in Brad’s 22? I’m not being a smart a**e in saying that but I believe he is higher in the order than the likes of Menzies!!!! Totally agree with you on the point of what sort of player do we want Archie to be? He is a bit of a enigma.
Read my edited version above (added on before i saw this reply)

Wasnt dropped from memory. Last year we had a tonne of injuries and have added Gresham, Duursma

Menzie is the only one with the speed and pressure mindset in that forward half - Archie looks incredibly slow. Not that Menzie is amazing in that area for his type, but he also kicks goals and has better ability when the ball hits the ground

2MP, Stringer, Langford, HJ Perkins, Gresham is a disaster for forward retention - Expect the same Essendon otherwise. Expose our mids that already have work to do in that area
 
Read my edited version above (added on before i saw this reply)

Wasnt dropped from memory. Last year we had a tonne of injuries and have added Gresham, Duursma

Menzie is the only one with the speed and pressure mindset in that forward half - Archie looks incredibly slow. Not that Menzie is amazing in that area for his type, but he also kicks goals and has better ability when the ball hits the ground

2MP, Stringer, Langford, HJ Perkins, Gresham is a disaster for forward retention - Expect the same Essendon otherwise. Expose our mids that already have work to do in that area
I read all your s**t don’t worry but it still sticks in my mind that even though Menzie was our 2nd highest goal kicker of the year he did get dropped! Well yeah he did. Don’t recall Perkins getting the same treatment! You might be correct but I’m talking about the pecking order!
 
Menzie is a decent footballer and a goal a game pretty good output from a 21 year old small forward in his first season. Plenty of upside there..I think Guelfi can play a role as well - he is solid as that defensive type small forward and is versatile enough to play several positions. Gresham a nice addition to our list - pretty classy and can play mid/wing.
What concerns me though is like someone else said the top teams kicked 350 goals last year and I'm just not sure where thats coming from..??
Stringer is rising 30 and like the last couple of seasons will most certainly have to be managed and play SUB at times you'd think...
2MP can be hit and miss & whilst Langford is all class can he be expected to kick 50++ goals again this season...??
I think our forward line is our weakest area of the ground - we have some pieces to work with for sure, but I think 2024 will be more about developing the likes of Jones, Caddy, Perkins - we really need one of these 3 to grab a spot with both hands...
Where are the Davies at..?? - still early but we'd want to see some runs on the board by end of 2024...same for Wanganeen..
More questions than answers with our forward line right now...
 

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Menzie is a decent footballer and a goal a game pretty good output from a 21 year old small forward in his first season. Plenty of upside there..I think Guelfi can play a role as well - he is solid as that defensive type small forward and is versatile enough to play several positions. Gresham a nice addition to our list - pretty classy and can play mid/wing.
What concerns me though is like someone else said the top teams kicked 350 goals last year and I'm just not sure where thats coming from..??
Stringer is rising 30 and like the last couple of seasons will most certainly have to be managed and play SUB at times you'd think...
2MP can be hit and miss & whilst Langford is all class can he be expected to kick 50++ goals again this season...??
I think our forward line is our weakest area of the ground - we have some pieces to work with for sure, but I think 2024 will be more about developing the likes of Jones, Caddy, Perkins - we really need one of these 3 to grab a spot with both hands...
Where are the Davies at..?? - still early but we'd want to see some runs on the board by end of 2024...same for Wanganeen..
More questions than answers with our forward line right now...
We actually got near that mark a couple of years ago if you include points as overall goals. 1 less round as well due to no gather round. It is a great question. The big losses was Hooker retirement, Tippa and well is Jake going to kick 40 goals again? Losing those 3 has cost us 100 goals! I believe that’s when Jones had his good year as well as 2mp. The dynamics has obviously changed from then it is good to study it still. If we get near that than wow it will be a good year and Caddy has come on quickly. Don’t forget how long it took Hooker to mature.
 
I read all your s**t don’t worry but it still sticks in my mind that even though Menzie was our 2nd highest goal kicker of the year he did get dropped! Well yeah he did. Don’t recall Perkins getting the same treatment! You might be correct but I’m talking about the pecking order!
Im not saying Menzie cant get dropped

It just wont happen without having a small forward in the team
 
Wright to play Ruck/Forward.
Jones to roam up the wings providing the running and marking power we need down the line.
Langford the mismatch problem that other teams have to account for.
Perkins the high half forward who pushes up into the midfield to provide link and carry along with a marking option.
Gresham the creative goal kicker with goal sense and ground ball ability
Menzie for pressure and ground ball ability.
 
Wright to play Ruck/Forward.
Jones to roam up the wings providing the running and marking power we need down the line.
Langford the mismatch problem that other teams have to account for.
Perkins the high half forward who pushes up into the midfield to provide link and carry along with a marking option.
Gresham the creative goal kicker with goal sense and ground ball ability
Menzie for pressure and ground ball ability.
I don’t mind this set up.They may be able to rotate Archie and Jake as well.
 
We actually got near that mark a couple of years ago if you include points as overall goals. 1 less round as well due to no gather round. It is a great question. The big losses was Hooker retirement, Tippa and well is Jake going to kick 40 goals again? Losing those 3 has cost us 100 goals! I believe that’s when Jones had his good year as well as 2mp. The dynamics has obviously changed from then it is good to study it still. If we get near that than wow it will be a good year and Caddy has come on quickly. Don’t forget how long it took Hooker to mature.

Hooker faded towards the end of that year and wasn’t nearly as effective by then. Also stringer kicked 40 goals as a starting on baller. I think Jones had 20goals as a 3rd tall/decoy who spent a lot of time up the wing.

The big thing to probably take away from that team is they had multiple good targets with more contested marking power, and stringer was dynamic in space at HF.

when you have your top guys demanding defensive attention and the ball coming in fast it tends to make things a lot easier as your lesser forwards match up on weaker defenders and can find some advantage there especially when you have strong mature players who are a good contested mark.

It’s pretty hard to replicate because we haven’t had a mature bodied FF like hooker since (Wright goes better up the ground and around 50 as a traditional CHF

AMT and Dev gone is a huge SF hole and Langford and Stringer haven’t been able to function in the same forward line, so Langfords growth hasn’t helped the team nearly as much as it should have

Hopefully Draper/Goldy can be that Hooker type this year and Gresham can be your AMT replacement. (Sheil as smith) Langford as stringer and they scaffold a good forward line
 
Honestly tough call

But Im not convinced he should be ahead of any of the 15 i mentioned

But PS determines a fair bit. The past 6 weeks and next 9 are crucial if we somehow stay fit

Do we think Brad has Shiel, Setterfield, Caldwell, Menzie, Durham, H.Jones in the 22?

My issue with Perkins ia that people say hes a forward first come mid, thats fine. What does he offer forward when we have 2MP, HJ, Langford, Stringer and then 2 smalls and a mid rotation (Caldwell or Hobbs). He doesnt provide speed and have the willingness to apply elite pressure which is needed most with this setup. He doesnt have the goal kicking ability or 1 v 1 skills, goal nous of Stringer, Langford. Doesnt have the size or marking ability of HJ, Langford

Because as a whole our smalls that kick goals are a bit on the slow side and not great wjth pressure he cant replace them as he makes the lacking area here worse. If we maintain everyone else on my 22 then he can only replace Harry Jones (we play very small) or Caldwell (The rotating mid)
All of the players you've listed and questioned whether Scott plays in the 22, were so early last season when we were winning IIRC.

I reckon the selection pressure for Perkins comes now from the introduction of both Gresham and Duursma. I think Gresh plays a high half forward / midfield rotation, as does Stringer and as they want Perkins to do.

Perkins's best could be anything as his game against Hawthorn showed, but he fell off, so he really needs this pre-season to count. Others have included him as one of the implied players who haven't shown an undetstanding of what an AFL lifestyle looks like - I wonder if Perkins took note that Gresh jumped on-board for the Arizona trip.

FWIW, I wouldn't be unhappy to see Perkins challenged to go back to the VFL and lift his game. I dare say he knows this is on the cards.
 
Whys that?

Hobbs a mile ahead i agree

Thought Caldwells round 10 onwards was pretty damn good

I just think he makes it one too many (small) mids - and he's a bit of a master of none.

If the talk of Martin getting minutes in the midfield is accurate, I'd rather go with a mix of Merrett, Parish, Setterfield, Martin, Hobbs & Tsatas.

Once the ball leaves the center square, I don't think he really knows how to defend.

I will say, I did like him up forward.
 
I just think he makes it one too many (small) mids - and he's a bit of a master of none.

If the talk of Martin getting minutes in the midfield is accurate, I'd rather go with a mix of Merrett, Parish, Setterfield, Martin, Hobbs & Tsatas.

Once the ball leaves the center square, I don't think he really knows how to defend.

I will say, I did like him up forward.
The only talk of Martin getting minutes in midfield is from Martin as far as I know; he's keen for a go.

What makes you think Caldwell doesn't know how to defend?
 
The only talk of Martin getting minutes in midfield is from Martin as far as I know; he's keen for a go.

What makes you think Caldwell doesn't know how to defend?

I like the Martin idea, but there's also a bit of an 'if it ain't broke' about it for me...

I just think that side of Caldwell's game is overrated - I used to notice this with McGrath too, they're solid enough at setting up around a ball up, but then seem to get lost. He's also one of the worst offenders at defending/chasing after a turnover.
 
Hooker faded towards the end of that year and wasn’t nearly as effective by then. Also stringer kicked 40 goals as a starting on baller. I think Jones had 20goals as a 3rd tall/decoy who spent a lot of time up the wing.

The big thing to probably take away from that team is they had multiple good targets with more contested marking power, and stringer was dynamic in space at HF.

when you have your top guys demanding defensive attention and the ball coming in fast it tends to make things a lot easier as your lesser forwards match up on weaker defenders and can find some advantage there especially when you have strong mature players who are a good contested mark.

It’s pretty hard to replicate because we haven’t had a mature bodied FF like hooker since (Wright goes better up the ground and around 50 as a traditional CHF

AMT and Dev gone is a huge SF hole and Langford and Stringer haven’t been able to function in the same forward line, so Langfords growth hasn’t helped the team nearly as much as it should have

Hopefully Draper/Goldy can be that Hooker type this year and Gresham can be your AMT replacement. (Sheil as smith) Langford as stringer and they scaffold a good forward line
I forgot about Devon Smith. Draper is the interesting one for me as I think his goal kicking has improved dramatically each year over the last three.
 

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I like the Martin idea, but there's also a bit of an 'if it ain't broke' about it for me...

I just think that side of Caldwell's game is overrated - I used to notice this with McGrath too, they're solid enough at setting up around a ball up, but then seem to get lost. He's also one of the worst offenders at defending/chasing after a turnover.
he's too smart to waste in our forward line. i'd rather have him drag his man in there and make them accountable. when he was in there this year (towards the end mind you) he lost all the impact that he was having.

this might be a hot take but i'd be interested in seeing 2MP play as a high CHF, contest down the ground and get some confidence in his marking - he wasn't great this year (as he was likely protecting his injury when taking pack marks) but him kicking to langford will hopefully be good. it was also apparent later on that they (wright/langford) would contest the same ball and either spoil each other or not take it which i'd wager comes from a lack of experience playing with each other, so i hope that it's something they've been working on this preaseason a lot. i think the two of them working in conjunction would be a fantastic key forward combo.

this might be a hot take but i think both of the twins need another pre-season before they should be picked for their roles. i think that alwyn was pretty good when he got a game but didn't tear it apart, and it doesn't help that jayden did his ALC before round 1 this year. i also think that dropping menzie (at least for rd 1) is a ridiculous notion as he statistically was our (second) best goal kicker this year. hopefully with him and gresham in the side we'll have some more potent ground ball use than we have had over the past few seasons.

the only question mark for me lies with matt guelfi because i think he's simultaneously a liability but irreplaceable as it stands currently. i think his scoreboard impact for someone that's played 100~ games is pretty substandard, i'm sure people will agree with me, though it's nice when he's able to hit the board - but on the other hand no one last season except zerrett offered much defensive work compared to him. he'd chase all day, both ways, do all the little 1 percenters that no one else really attempted or tried to do, which can't be understated for a side that was defensively... a bit average (like us, excluding our actual back line).

i'd also be interested to see if they take the gamble early with caddy, i'm interested as having seen some of his highlights he looks impressive and should work well with the other 2 key forwards.
 
he's too smart to waste in our forward line. i'd rather have him drag his man in there and make them accountable. when he was in there this year (towards the end mind you) he lost all the impact that he was having.

this might be a hot take but i'd be interested in seeing 2MP play as a high CHF, contest down the ground and get some confidence in his marking - he wasn't great this year (as he was likely protecting his injury when taking pack marks) but him kicking to langford will hopefully be good. it was also apparent later on that they (wright/langford) would contest the same ball and either spoil each other or not take it which i'd wager comes from a lack of experience playing with each other, so i hope that it's something they've been working on this preaseason a lot. i think the two of them working in conjunction would be a fantastic key forward combo.

this might be a hot take but i think both of the twins need another pre-season before they should be picked for their roles. i think that alwyn was pretty good when he got a game but didn't tear it apart, and it doesn't help that jayden did his ALC before round 1 this year. i also think that dropping menzie (at least for rd 1) is a ridiculous notion as he statistically was our (second) best goal kicker this year. hopefully with him and gresham in the side we'll have some more potent ground ball use than we have had over the past few seasons.

the only question mark for me lies with matt guelfi because i think he's simultaneously a liability but irreplaceable as it stands currently. i think his scoreboard impact for someone that's played 100~ games is pretty substandard, i'm sure people will agree with me, though it's nice when he's able to hit the board - but on the other hand no one last season except zerrett offered much defensive work compared to him. he'd chase all day, both ways, do all the little 1 percenters that no one else really attempted or tried to do, which can't be understated for a side that was defensively... a bit average (like us, excluding our actual back line).

i'd also be interested to see if they take the gamble early with caddy, i'm interested as having seen some of his highlights he looks impressive and should work well with the other 2 key forwards.
Okay, so I thought it might be worth giving the respective seasons that Guelfi and Menzie have had some context because I don't think it's as clear cut as you do.
In '23, Guelfi played 13 games vs. Menzie's 21 games. Below are their averages for the year.

Screenshot_20240109-081710_Chrome.jpg

You made a point about Guelfi's ability to contribute to scores, so here are the scoring stats as well. It's worth remembering that Guelfi's 100 or so games haven't always been in the forward line either. He has been used in multiple roles with us and has really only gone forward since Smith / Walla left / was in decline.

Screenshot_20240109-081750_Chrome.jpg
The numbers are comparable, and for Guelf they're from a smaller sample, which speaks for his competitiveness in the role. As well, he has had a defensive forward role as you've said, but he has still been able to hit the scoreboard. Probably the main difference has been in score involvements and goal assists, which is probably why Menzie seems like a more natural small forward, but the gap isn't glaring and again, Guelf played 8 less games.

I think Guelf's being undersold.

It's probably fair to say we know Guelfi's ceiling and that Menzie has more upside for development, but you also mentioned that Alwyn should build through another pre-season which means he'd develop in the VFL because he hasn't been able to tear a game apart. You imply that Menzie doesn't need the same development, but I don't recall him tearing a game apart either. Why shouldn't he also play games in the VFL, tear games apart there and then rejoin? ...or even develop his defensive side there and then return?

FWIW, I think Menzie has more to gain by developing in seniors but I would also be inclined to give Alwyn games, even if he starts on the vest. His Hawthorn game showed he can match and he has the inate skillset we need in a small forward - he could be Walla-like. I just don't think it's as clear cut that Guelfi doesn't get games on their current output.

I like the thinking around Wright and Langers but I think they can rotate.
 
I like the Martin idea, but there's also a bit of an 'if it ain't broke' about it for me...

I just think that side of Caldwell's game is overrated - I used to notice this with McGrath too, they're solid enough at setting up around a ball up, but then seem to get lost. He's also one of the worst offenders at defending/chasing after a turnover.
These stats place Caldwell in the top 10% in the league for pressure acts and the top 35% in the league for tackles.

Screenshot_20240109-085239_Chrome.jpg
...and these stats put him in the top 35% for clearances so he must be doing something right at the stoppages because he's getting the ball out of there. 🤷‍♂️

Screenshot_20240109-085638_Chrome.jpg
 
I think you're right, but I think Guelfi has been at his ceiling for a long time and everyone would like to see the upgrade. I think people hope Menzie is that upgrade.
I hope Menzie is that upgrade as well. I just think on current output that there's no dislodging Guelfi that easily. Menzie needs a stronger defensive game and Alwyn needs a stronger body. On talent, Alwyn should get games.
 
My issue with our forward line is that we have too many tweeners. Not talls, not smalls. Langford, Stringer and Perkins fit in this category, and only one has the fitness level to play AFL level midfield in Langford. Our only true key forward at AFL level is Wright. Jones has shown good signs but his body is worrying, Hunter and Caddy also look promising but have been at the club for 5 minutes and we don't know if their game will transition to AFL.

Our smalls are average too. Menzie looks promising, Guelfi is basically Jason Castagna as a forward. Gresham is pretty awkward in that he's not really a small forward, and not really a midfielder. He's also pretty slow, like Menzie and Guelfi too. Then you have your genuine mid/forwards like Hobbs and Caldwell, also not the quickest.

I see us lining up like:

Gresham - Langford - Caldwell
Stringer - Wright - Menzie

This'll be unpopular but I think Perkins should spend some time trying to develop his midfield craft in the twos. I also hope Wanganeen can get his body right and really push for one of those spots.
 
Menzies too me appears to have the forward nous but Guelfis is clearly the better and more flexible player at the moment.
My issue with our forward line is that we have too many tweeners. Not talls, not smalls. Langford, Stringer and Perkins fit in this category, and only one has the fitness level to play AFL level midfield in Langford. Our only true key forward at AFL level is Wright. Jones has shown good signs but his body is worrying, Hunter and Caddy also look promising but have been at the club for 5 minutes and we don't know if their game will transition to AFL.

Our smalls are average too. Menzie looks promising, Guelfi is basically Jason Castagna as a forward. Gresham is pretty awkward in that he's not really a small forward, and not really a midfielder. He's also pretty slow, like Menzie and Guelfi too. Then you have your genuine mid/forwards like Hobbs and Caldwell, also not the quickest.

I see us lining up like:

Gresham - Langford - Caldwell
Stringer - Wright - Menzie

This'll be unpopular but I think Perkins should spend some time trying to develop his midfield craft in the twos. I also hope Wanganeen can get his body right and really push for one of those spots.

I would rather play Perkins over Stringer at this point.

I have

Gresham Jones Perkins
Langford Wright Menzie

Wright to chop out Goldey/Bryan in the Ruck for 20 odd minutes a game.

Stringer and Caldwell on the bench to rotate through. Hobbs to also spend time forward at times.
 
Menzies too me appears to have the forward nous but Guelfis is clearly the better and more flexible player at the moment.


I would rather play Perkins over Stringer at this point.

I have

Gresham Jones Perkins
Langford Wright Menzie

Wright to chop out Goldey/Bryan in the Ruck for 20 odd minutes a game.

Stringer and Caldwell on the bench to rotate through. Hobbs to also spend time forward at times.
I want no more than one tweener in the forward line. Perkins is the obvious one to be a mid, so he plays vfl as a mid for me. It's unpopular but it's for the best imo.
 
he's too smart to waste in our forward line. i'd rather have him drag his man in there and make them accountable. when he was in there this year (towards the end mind you) he lost all the impact that he was having.

this might be a hot take but i'd be interested in seeing 2MP play as a high CHF, contest down the ground and get some confidence in his marking - he wasn't great this year (as he was likely protecting his injury when taking pack marks) but him kicking to langford will hopefully be good. it was also apparent later on that they (wright/langford) would contest the same ball and either spoil each other or not take it which i'd wager comes from a lack of experience playing with each other, so i hope that it's something they've been working on this preaseason a lot. i think the two of them working in conjunction would be a fantastic key forward combo.

this might be a hot take but i think both of the twins need another pre-season before they should be picked for their roles. i think that alwyn was pretty good when he got a game but didn't tear it apart, and it doesn't help that jayden did his ALC before round 1 this year. i also think that dropping menzie (at least for rd 1) is a ridiculous notion as he statistically was our (second) best goal kicker this year. hopefully with him and gresham in the side we'll have some more potent ground ball use than we have had over the past few seasons.

the only question mark for me lies with matt guelfi because i think he's simultaneously a liability but irreplaceable as it stands currently. i think his scoreboard impact for someone that's played 100~ games is pretty substandard, i'm sure people will agree with me, though it's nice when he's able to hit the board - but on the other hand no one last season except zerrett offered much defensive work compared to him. he'd chase all day, both ways, do all the little 1 percenters that no one else really attempted or tried to do, which can't be understated for a side that was defensively... a bit average (like us, excluding our actual back line).

i'd also be interested to see if they take the gamble early with caddy, i'm interested as having seen some of his highlights he looks impressive and should work well with the other 2 key forwards.
2MP reminds me a little of Paddy Ryder.

Ryder played his best games forward when he started in the ruck, got moving, found his rhythm and then went forward. When he started forward he often struggled. Likewise 2MP is best when he gets on his bike and up the ground, gets his hands on plenty of footy and then goes deep with his confidence high. There is merit in at least starting him there with a plan to get him deep later in the game.
 
These stats place Caldwell in the top 10% in the league for pressure acts and the top 35% in the league for tackles.

View attachment 1883718
...and these stats put him in the top 35% for clearances so he must be doing something right at the stoppages because he's getting the ball out of there. 🤷‍♂️

View attachment 1883719

I don't have anything against Caldwell - I just think I'd rather a different caliber player have that spot.

I did say he was typically good at stoppages (reflected in your stats) - more his transition game he gets lost and just jogs and ball watches.

I am guessing he plays every game this year, I'm just saying I'd be happy with a midfield lineup of Merrett, Parish, Setters, Hobbs, Martin & Tsatas. I don't think we really lose anything from not playing Caldwell.
 
Okay, so I thought it might be worth giving the respective seasons that Guelfi and Menzie have had some context because I don't think it's as clear cut as you do.
In '23, Guelfi played 13 games vs. Menzie's 21 games. Below are their averages for the year.

View attachment 1883701

You made a point about Guelfi's ability to contribute to scores, so here are the scoring stats as well. It's worth remembering that Guelfi's 100 or so games haven't always been in the forward line either. He has been used in multiple roles with us and has really only gone forward since Smith / Walla left / was in decline.

View attachment 1883702
The numbers are comparable, and for Guelf they're from a smaller sample, which speaks for his competitiveness in the role. As well, he has had a defensive forward role as you've said, but he has still been able to hit the scoreboard. Probably the main difference has been in score involvements and goal assists, which is probably why Menzie seems like a more natural small forward, but the gap isn't glaring and again, Guelf played 8 less games.

I think Guelf's being undersold.

It's probably fair to say we know Guelfi's ceiling and that Menzie has more upside for development, but you also mentioned that Alwyn should build through another pre-season which means he'd develop in the VFL because he hasn't been able to tear a game apart. You imply that Menzie doesn't need the same development, but I don't recall him tearing a game apart either. Why shouldn't he also play games in the VFL, tear games apart there and then rejoin? ...or even develop his defensive side there and then return?

FWIW, I think Menzie has more to gain by developing in seniors but I would also be inclined to give Alwyn games, even if he starts on the vest. His Hawthorn game showed he can match and he has the inate skillset we need in a small forward - he could be Walla-like. I just don't think it's as clear cut that Guelfi doesn't get games on their current output.

I like the thinking around Wright and Langers but I think they can rotate.
don't get me wrong, i'm a big fan of guelfi (in fact i daresay that i think this season when he was in the side we looked better, though i could've stated that a bit better) because i genuinely think he's up there with zach for his individual efforts in the game, and i do think that as it stands he can't really be replaced because we'd be missing a lot of defensive pressure in our forward line, i just think that jye menzie has the capacity to develop into that role/perform better than guelfi has. i will concede that neither are a fair comparison to each other as last season they (to me at least) played different roles when they were playing. i might be misremembering but the few times that menzie did end up outside the forward line he was doing a lot of the same stuff that guelfi was doing... just a bit worse (within a vacuum of course). the only unfortunate thing about both of them as players is that neither of them have elite speed compared to some of the better smaller forwards like walla.
 
2MP reminds me a little of Paddy Ryder.

Ryder played his best games forward when he started in the ruck, got moving, found his rhythm and then went forward. When he started forward he often struggled. Likewise 2MP is best when he gets on his bike and up the ground, gets his hands on plenty of footy and then goes deep with his confidence high. There is merit in at least starting him there with a plan to get him deep later in the game.
his best game with us was when he demolished the bulldogs a few years back, and iirc he played both deep & high (70m~ from the goals) and had the confidence the back himself (as he hadn’t recently been injured) if he’s able to recapture that form we’ll be in a good spot going forward i’d wager
 

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