Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

[fishardansin]

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For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

 

[Bombers36]

I cant believe I am writing this thread - but yes - after last nights grinding win we currently are sitting in 7th spot and SHOULD manage to play finals this year....!!!

We are pretty much at the half way point of the season 11 games down and 12 to come.
We currently have 6 wins and 5 losses.
I've had a quick look at the draw and of the 12 remaining games we have;-

6 likely wins - North X 2, Carlton, Adelaide, Swans, WCoast (all at Marvel)
4 games we are some chance in? - Freo (in Perth), GWS (in Sydney), Port (MCG), Dogs (marvel)
2 likely losses - Collingwood , Geelong (in Geelong)


If we can win the games we should and pinch 1 or 2 of the games we are a chance in it should leave us on 13 or 14 wins and this will be enough to play finals...

Geelong are outside the 8 and you'd expect them to come in - maybe at the expense of Freo or St Kilda who are starting to look wobbly...
It would also be nice if Brisbane do us a favour today and beat Adelaide who have a relatively easy run home...

Cant see the Swans, Blues or Tigers making it - and with Shiel, 2MP, Setterfield and Parish to come back into the team you'd have to say we are more likely than not to play a finals in 2023

Long way to go though.......come at me...!!!

 

[fairbump_playon]

We won’t win all the games we should

 

[Bombers36]

We won’t win all the games we should

Yes - but even if we drop some of the games we 'should' win - we may fluke a game we are not expected to win...
Dont forget we have pretty much our whole midfield to come back (Setters, Shiel & Parish) and our best forward (2MP)
We can only improve from here....

 

[Yoda_]

eth-dog disapproves

delete

 

[Bombers36]

eth-dog disapproves

delete

I am waiting for you ethan...come at me...!!!

 

[eth-dog]

Hello 2021, nice to see you again.

 

[Bombers36]

Bookies believe we can do it and have us at around $2.10 - gamble responsibly...

 

[raskolnikov]

We'll lose to Carlton. Nothing surer.

 

[Yoda_]

We'll lose to Carlton. Nothing surer.

Yep, absolutely spot on

 

[Howard Moon]

We'll lose to Carlton. Nothing surer.

Norf first

 

[Mercurial89]

Hello 2021, nice to see you again.

Will be how we react to making finals rather than making finals itself that means the most.

Hopefully we have a head coach that maintains a clear view of where we are at.
The captain too if we do make it has to ensure that the players see where they got to and resolve to be more professional and raise their standard rather than expecting things to just happen.

I know your stance on this, but I'm coming around more to the idea that we have to make it and go through it to build the culture of working for success and not just expecting things to happen.
Just like we have to bank wins against struggling sides we should beat, build the standards.

 

[ghostdog]

While finals are a chance you go for it and don't hold back, but we're over-achieving on expectations this year and our draw is softer than a marshmallow from North Melbourne. It's not a true indication of serious deadset finals form unless we're trouncing those at the bottom half of the ladder. Lid firmly on for mine.

On the upside, some of our points for and against numbers have been impressive.

 

[ant555]

 

[ant555]

At least I tipped us to win 10 or 11 games
As for finals those who make it may need 13 wins to get in. I would say if we make it this year we will have made it on decent form rather than being the last team standing.

 

[fishardansin]

Here is the run home for the teams currently placed 5th to 13th. Four out of the 9 will make finals.

Club	St Kilda	Bulldogs	Essendon	Fremantle	Geelong	Adelaide	Sydney	Suns	Carlton
Points	28	28	24	24	20	20	20	20	18
Percentage	116.5	106.9	107.9	102.3	118.1	107.4	101.2	97.2	96.7
Round 11	Hawthorn	Suns	Eagles	Melbourne	Giants	Brisbane	Carlton	Bulldogs	Sydney
Round 12	Bye	Geelong	Norf	Bye	Bulldogs	Suns	Bye	Adelaide	Melbourne
Round 13	Sydney	Port	Carlton	Richmond	Bye	Eagles	St Kilda	Bye	Essendon
Round 14	Richmond	Norf	Bye	Giants	Port	Bye	Brisbane	Carlton	Suns
Round 15	Brisbane	Bye	Fremantle	Essendon	Melbourne	Collingwood	Eagles	Hawthorn	Bye
Round 16	Eagles	Fremantle	Port	Bulldogs	Sydney	Norf	Geelong	Collingwood	Hawthorn
Round 17	Melbourne	Collingwood	Adelaide	Carlton	Norf	Essendon	Richmond	Port	Fremantle
Round 18	Suns	Sydney	Geelong	Collingwood	Essendon	Giants	Bulldogs	St kilda	Port
Round 19	Norf	Essendon	Bulldogs	Sydney	Brisbane	Melbourne	Fremantle	Giants	Eagles
Round 20	Hawthorn	Giants	Sydney	Geelong	Fremantle	Port	Essendon	Brisbane	Collingwood
Round 21	Carlton	Richmond	Eagles	Brisbane	Port	Suns	Giants	Adelaide	St Kilda
Round 22	Richmond	Hawthorn	Norf	Eagles	Collingwood	Brisbane	Suns	Sydney	Melbourne
Round 23	Geelong	Eagles	Giants	Port	St Kilda	Sydney	Adelaide	Carlton	Suns
Round 24	Brisbane	Geelong	Collingwood	Hawthorn	Bulldogs	Eagles	Melbourne	North	Giants

Which ever mod puts spreadsheets at the top of pages, you might want to make something like what I have below. I've got the typed out data if you want to copy and paste it.

 

[Lore]

Here is the run home for the teams currently placed 5th to 13th. Four out of the 9 will make finals.

Club	St Kilda	Bulldogs	Essendon	Fremantle	Geelong	Adelaide	Sydney	Suns	Carlton
Points	28	28	24	24	20	20	20	20	18
Percentage	116.5	106.9	107.9	102.3	118.1	107.4	101.2	97.2	96.7
Round 11	Hawthorn	Suns	Eagles	Melbourne	Giants	Brisbane	Carlton	Bulldogs	Sydney
Round 12	Bye	Geelong	Norf	Bye	Bulldogs	Suns	Bye	Adelaide	Melbourne
Round 13	Sydney	Port	Carlton	Richmond	Bye	Eagles	St Kilda	Bye	Essendon
Round 14	Richmond	Norf	Bye	Giants	Port	Bye	Brisbane	Carlton	Suns
Round 15	Brisbane	Bye	Fremantle	Essendon	Melbourne	Collingwood	Eagles	Hawthorn	Bye
Round 16	Eagles	Fremantle	Port	Bulldogs	Sydney	Norf	Geelong	Collingwood	Hawthorn
Round 17	Melbourne	Collingwood	Adelaide	Carlton	Norf	Essendon	Richmond	Port	Fremantle
Round 18	Suns	Sydney	Geelong	Collingwood	Essendon	Giants	Bulldogs	St kilda	Port
Round 19	Norf	Essendon	Bulldogs	Sydney	Brisbane	Melbourne	Fremantle	Giants	Eagles
Round 20	Hawthorn	Giants	Sydney	Geelong	Fremantle	Port	Essendon	Brisbane	Collingwood
Round 21	Carlton	Richmond	Eagles	Brisbane	Port	Suns	Giants	Adelaide	St Kilda
Round 22	Richmond	Hawthorn	Norf	Eagles	Collingwood	Brisbane	Suns	Sydney	Melbourne
Round 23	Geelong	Eagles	Giants	Port	St Kilda	Sydney	Adelaide	Carlton	Suns
Round 24	Brisbane	Geelong	Collingwood	Hawthorn	Bulldogs	Eagles	Melbourne	North	Giants

Which ever mod puts spreadsheets at the top of pages, you might want to make something like what I have below. I've got the typed out data if you want to copy and paste it.

View attachment 1698432

Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it

 

[IggypopsTshirt]

Bad Fred.

 

[TheUnicorn]

I cant believe I am writing this thread - but yes - after last nights grinding win we currently are sitting in 7th spot and SHOULD manage to play finals this year....!!!

We are pretty much at the half way point of the season 11 games down and 12 to come.
We currently have 6 wins and 5 losses.
I've had a quick look at the draw and of the 12 remaining games we have;-

6 likely wins - North X 2, Carlton, Adelaide, Swans, WCoast (all at Marvel)
4 games we are some chance in? - Freo (in Perth), GWS (in Sydney), Port (MCG), Dogs (marvel)
2 likely losses - Collingwood , Geelong (in Geelong)


If we can win the games we should and pinch 1 or 2 of the games we are a chance in it should leave us on 13 or 14 wins and this will be enough to play finals...

Geelong are outside the 8 and you'd expect them to come in - maybe at the expense of Freo or St Kilda who are starting to look wobbly...
It would also be nice if Brisbane do us a favour today and beat Adelaide who have a relatively easy run home...

Cant see the Swans, Blues or Tigers making it - and with Shiel, 2MP, Setterfield and Parish to come back into the team you'd have to say we are more likely than not to play a finals in 2023

Long way to go though.......come at me...!!!

There are no likely wins in AFL this round really personified that.

 

[fishardansin]

Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it

Thanks Lore!

I have added a bunch of squiggle data to it (seeing that is a favourite at Big Footy, and they have understandable instructions on how to scrape data).

 

[Lore]

Thanks Lore!

I have added a bunch of squiggle data to it (seeing that is a favourite at Big Footy, and they have understandable instructions on how to scrape data).

You can scrape any website that has a table using IMPORTHTML, including the AFL website ladder, liveladders, AFLtables, footywire and draftguru.

Most of my spreadsheets have that as a starting point and then a few more formulas transforming data and some conditional formatting to keep it pretty

 

[Bjchan13]

Ive done the ladder, we finish 3rd, beat Melbourne in a qualifying, Collingwood in a prelim and then Brisbane in the GF

 

[Bjchan13]

IF we make it this year we should be aiming to win.

From our last final in 2021 against the dogs we would be missing

Hooker
Gleeson
Waterman
Cutler
Stewart
Francis
Dev Smith

Added would be

Weideman
Langford
Nic Martin
Setterfield
Zerk-Thatcher
Kelly
Hobbs

Actual small forward options Walla, Menzie, Guelfi, Snelling, Alwyn Jnr

2 full seasons experience added to Caldwell, Durham and Perkins.

And a better coach.

 

[TheUnicorn]

IF we make it this year we should be aiming to win.

From our last final in 2021 against the dogs we would be missing

Hooker
Gleeson
Waterman
Cutler
Stewart
Francis
Dev Smith

Added would be

Weideman
Langford
Nic Martin
Setterfield
Zerk-Thatcher
Kelly
Hobbs

Actual small forward options Walla, Menzie, Guelfi, Snelling, Alwyn Jnr

2 full seasons experience added to Caldwell, Durham and Perkins.

And a better coach.

Where’s the THEN ?

 

[Beerfish]

I cant believe I am writing this thread - but yes - after last nights grinding win we currently are sitting in 7th spot and SHOULD manage to play finals this year....!!!

We are pretty much at the half way point of the season 11 games down and 12 to come.
We currently have 6 wins and 5 losses.
I've had a quick look at the draw and of the 12 remaining games we have;-

6 likely wins - North X 2, Carlton, Adelaide, Swans, WCoast (all at Marvel)
4 games we are some chance in? - Freo (in Perth), GWS (in Sydney), Port (MCG), Dogs (marvel)
2 likely losses - Collingwood , Geelong (in Geelong)


If we can win the games we should and pinch 1 or 2 of the games we are a chance in it should leave us on 13 or 14 wins and this will be enough to play finals...

Geelong are outside the 8 and you'd expect them to come in - maybe at the expense of Freo or St Kilda who are starting to look wobbly...
It would also be nice if Brisbane do us a favour today and beat Adelaide who have a relatively easy run home...

Cant see the Swans, Blues or Tigers making it - and with Shiel, 2MP, Setterfield and Parish to come back into the team you'd have to say we are more likely than not to play a finals in 2023

Long way to go though.......come at me...!!!

Ballsy thread my man. Can't argue with that.