The Serious Covid Thread - For Those Who Want Serious Discussion

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The Dawes

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as usual - lots of alarmist speculation from the media and knee jerk responses from Politicians.
Lots of focus on case numbers and how transmissible it is, but very little on how severe/mild it is which is surely the most important factor.
 

sr36

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as usual - lots of alarmist speculation from the media and knee jerk responses from Politicians.
Lots of focus on case numbers and how transmissible it is, but very little on how severe/mild it is which is surely the most important factor.
It's too early to know how severe it is.
 

The Dawes

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It's too early to know how severe it is.
true but that doesn't mean we have to tolerate media speculation inferring the worst. Anecdotal stuff coming from South Africa suggests it's milder that previous variants, but obviously you're only dealing with small samples sizes
 

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sr36

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true but that doesn't mean we have to tolerate media speculation inferring the worst. Anecdotal stuff coming from South Africa suggests it's milder that previous variants, but obviously you're only dealing with small samples sizes

And too early in the course of the disease. For covid deaths, median time of death is two weeks after contracting it. So in a couple of weeks, death rates in South Africa should give us an indicator - an un-vaxed indicator anyway - as they're only 25% vaxed.
 

TheGreatGrundy

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Anyone have an opinion or explanation why Victoria's daily case numbers remain about 4 times the number of NSW - today 1365 v 364 (from memory)? (There is only a 1% difference in double vax numbers)
 

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jathanas

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Anyone have an opinion or explanation why Victoria's daily case numbers remain about 4 times the number of NSW - today 1365 v 364 (from memory)? (There is only a 1% difference in double vax numbers)

I see the glass as half full.

According to the modelling we were looking at peaking in December with cases projected to be much higher than they are now.

Hospitalisations are trending down, that's all that counts.

Vaccines bloody work.
 

Markfs

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It seems to me that the problem now is the provision of hospital beds for the usual stuff and the covid stuff. Obviously if we open all the doors, the unjabbed might pack the hospitals ....so we need to come up with fair method to deal with the issue. They do pay taxes or at least some of them do. If you dont give them beds for not getting jabbed, then what about smokers or those who drink too much, or those that hang out in the sun too much, or do dangerous things?.

On other matters, I'm not sure if we need to mandate jabbing. Maybe we can just allow all businesses and events to give notice about whether it will allow unjabbed people in. For example, eric clapton tours and allows in the unjabbed. Jabbed people can choose to not buy tickets. The fact that people might lose 90% of their audience by allowing in the unjabbed, might encourage them to restrict entry to the jabbed. Eric might say stuff it, I can still fill the venue with the unjabbed....

It's harder in other situations...."sir, this nurse hasn't been jabbed, do you mind if she turns you over?". Do we put signs on workers? I walk up to buy a sub at subway and see that an unjabbed person is making it. "I want the other guy to do it".... should we just herd all the unjabbed into one suburb and let them live with each other?
 

DinoSoar

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Anyone have an opinion or explanation why Victoria's daily case numbers remain about 4 times the number of NSW - today 1365 v 364 (from memory)? (There is only a 1% difference in double vax numbers)

Victoria opened up with higher daily case numbers than NSW - 2100 vs 500 thereabouts, with greater geographical spread across Melbourne compared with more localised in Sydney to western and south western areas. Continued protests haven’t helped things either. Hospitalisations and ICU are down and not trending up which is good and showing that vaccination is working.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-04/why-victoria-recording-higher-covid-cases-than-nsw/100671276
 

sr36

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I see the glass as half full.

According to the modelling we were looking at peaking in December with cases projected to be much higher than they are now.

Hospitalisations are trending down, that's all that counts.

Vaccines bloody work.
They were talking 4000 cases a day, so to be flat at about 1000 is good news.
 

TheGreatGrundy

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They were talking 4000 cases a day, so to be flat at about 1000 is good news.
I assume the 'they' that you are referring to are the epidemiologists who were lauded as gods in civilian clothing by so many on here and elsewhere over the last two years.
 

sr36

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I assume the 'they' that you are referring to are the epidemiologists who were lauded as gods in civilian clothing by so many on here and elsewhere over the last two years.

They're relying on data from spread in different countries at different stages of vaccine, with different climates, geography, patterns of movement and social distancing. Accurate predictions are unlikely, but better than uneducated opinions about what is likely to happen.
 

stui magpie

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Anyone have an opinion or explanation why Victoria's daily case numbers remain about 4 times the number of NSW - today 1365 v 364 (from memory)? (There is only a 1% difference in double vax numbers)

NSW has consistently proven they're better at dealing with covid than Victoria?

NSW got more punch from their vaccination roll out, they targeted high risk communities and dragged the daily case number down. Victoria opened up with the same vaccination rate but with high daily cases. Both have plateaued, for now.
 

TheGreatGrundy

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NSW has consistently proven they're better at dealing with covid than Victoria?

NSW got more punch from their vaccination roll out, they targeted high risk communities and dragged the daily case number down. Victoria opened up with the same vaccination rate but with high daily cases. Both have plateaued, for now.
They may have plateaued, but Victoria's numbers are still 4 times higher than those of NSW.
 

TradeDraft

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NSW has consistently proven they're better at dealing with covid than Victoria?

NSW got more punch from their vaccination roll out, they targeted high risk communities and dragged the daily case number down. Victoria opened up with the same vaccination rate but with high daily cases. Both have plateaued, for now.

So Victoria should gone to places like Western/North West Melbourne before Everyone else?
 

sr36

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So Victoria should gone to places like Western/North West Melbourne before Everyone else?
Once they'd offered it to those most at risk of dying, they should have moved to those most at risk of catching and spreading the disease, rather than just rolling down the age groups.
 

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