Analysis The Stats and nothing but the Stats

[caesar88]

Centre ball-up numbers from last night's game against the Bulldogs

Combinations



Nice to see a good variety of combinations featured, with eight different combinations being featured multiple times throughout the game (aided of course by the absence of Heeney and the high volume of centre ball-ups from all of the goals.) No combination really stood out, with literally every one of the Swans mids from last night featuring in the equal-best combinations at winning the centre clearance. And who would've thought a centre ball-up combination of all-attacking weapons like McInerney, Papley & Warner would have the equal-best rate at preventing the opposition from entering their forward 50 from clearance?

Individuals



Pretty much a clean sweep from Rowbottom, winning the most total centre clearances, being the only Swans midfielder to win a centre clearance that led to a score, and also having the best rate at being involved in a clearance-winning combination. Papley also featured highly in this regard as well. Do with that what you will.

 

[Ticky009]

 

[Kiama Chris]

Centre ball-up numbers from last night's game against the Bulldogs

Combinations

View attachment 2592083

Nice to see a good variety of combinations featured, with eight different combinations being featured multiple times throughout the game (aided of course by the absence of Heeney and the high volume of centre ball-ups from all of the goals.) No combination really stood out, with literally every one of the Swans mids from last night featuring in the equal-best combinations at winning the centre clearance. And who would've thought a centre ball-up combination of all-attacking weapons like McInerney, Papley & Warner would have the equal-best rate at preventing the opposition from entering their forward 50 from clearance?

Individuals

View attachment 2592084

Pretty much a clean sweep from Rowbottom, winning the most total centre clearances, being the only Swans midfielder to win a centre clearance that led to a score, and also having the best rate at being involved in a clearance-winning combination. Papley also featured highly in this regard as well. Do with that what you will.

Really enjoy this thanks caesar88 . Much harder to do stoppage clearances and attendances are harder to track but if you ever have a few spare days......

 

[Ticky009]

 

[Millky95]

Not my work but this person does an early season comparison of the 2024 Swans to the 2026 Swans:

 

[Kiama Chris]

Not my work but this person does an early season comparison of the 2024 Swans to the 2026 Swans:

Really interesting read of the stats.
Is this 7 games vs whole season? 2024 there were 2 inflexion points at Rd 8 and the Port game where we dropped off.
Big statement about going around the Dogs I think is only part of the story (Plan B).
That said I think he/she is pretty right.

 

[Millky95]

Really interesting read of the stats.
Is this 7 games vs whole season? 2024 there were 2 inflexion points at Rd 8 and the Port game where we dropped off.
Big statement about going around the Dogs I think is only part of the story (Plan B).
That said I think he/she is pretty right.

I believe it is 7 games vs whole season

 

[Kiama Chris]

I believe it is 7 games vs whole season

Thanks. My guess would be that our stats for 2024 could be broken into thirds. The difference between the first thirds is probably not as great but to my eye the comment on dense defence launching attacks and locking opponents in is very accurate. Also about our pressure being more physical though the Norwood game has a big influence on that.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Thanks. My guess would be that our stats for 2024 could be broken into thirds. The difference between the first thirds is probably not as great but to my eye the comment on dense defence launching attacks and locking opponents in is very accurate. Also about our pressure being more physical though the Norwood game has a big influence on that.

Cox effectively picking 9 defenders is IMO very strategic. The fact that at least 6 of them are also very mobile and useful in attack makes for a very strong defence and base to launch from.

 

[Ticky009]

This one is for you caesar88

 

[Kiama Chris]

This one is for you caesar88

Two things wrong:
Goals kicked by other in our case is 10%.
The bar length is not the total number of goals kicked. Eg we have kicked 170pts (27goals) more than GWS but our bars are much the same length. So there is only a poor comparison between clubs.
Pity, it could have been way more informative.

 

[Millky95]

Two things wrong:
Goals kicked by other in our case is 10%.
The bar length is not the total number of goals kicked. Eg we have kicked 170pts (27goals) more than GWS but our bars are much the same length. So there is only a poor comparison between clubs.
Pity, it could have been way more informative.

I think it is broken down by percentage as opposed to totals though?

Edit: just checked again and the bars don't all go the same length? That is some ugly data presentation

 

[Kiama Chris]

I think it is broken down by percentage as opposed to totals though?

Edit: just checked again and the bars don't all go the same length? That is some ugly data presentation

My point exactly. In this case some goals are unaccounted for.
My problem is that they SHOULDN'T be the same length but your total goals determines the length.
If your keys kick 50% of 200 is that better than 40% of 250? A well designed graph would show it was the same number but a higher proportion.

 

[caesar88]

Some elite rankings from Swans players in the competition so far this year

Score involvements - McInerney (1st) & Grundy (3rd)
Tackles - Rowbottom (2nd)
Hitouts - Grundy (2nd)
Goal Assists - Papley (2nd)
Contested Marks - Curnow (2nd)
Intercepts - McCartin (2nd)
Inside 50s - Warner (3rd)
Metres Gained - Blakey (3rd)
Goals - Curnow (5th)

Eight different players right at the very top in nine different areas I think shows the even spread of talent and contribution in the team.

 

[Olian]

Some elite rankings from Swans players in the competition so far this year

Score involvements - McInerney (1st) & Grundy (3rd)
Tackles - Rowbottom (2nd)
Hitouts - Grundy (2nd)
Goal Assists - Papley (2nd)
Contested Marks - Curnow (2nd)
Intercepts - McCartin (2nd)
Inside 50s - Warner (3rd)
Metres Gained - Blakey (3rd)
Goals - Curnow (5th)

Eight different players right at the very top in nine different areas I think shows the even spread of talent and contribution in the team.

Also not reliant on what many consider our most influential players like Heeney or Gulden.

 

[caesar88]

Centre bounce stats for this week's game against Melbourne.

Combinations



Individuals



This week's were really interesting because it seemed like there were real ebbs and flows in the centre, so I thought rather than go over each combination and individual's numbers, I'd instead break down each quarter.

First quarter - The combinations of Grundy with all of Heeney, McInerney, Papley and Warner were used seven times, dominating the centre bounce usage, but for a combined clearance rate of just 29%, and Melbourne took it inside 50 from every one of their clearance wins, which I think matches the eye test. It did feel like we were getting belted out of the centre early on. From the two clearances we did win, we managed to score from one of them at least.

Second quarter - There was actually only one combination that was used more than once in this quarter, so we went with a lot more variety and mixed up our combinations a lot more. The one constant was Rowbottom, who attended every centre bounce for the quarter. Overall we went from a clearance rate of 36% in the first term to 63% in the second term. All of Heeney, McInerney, Rowbottom and Warner won clearances, and we scored from two of them.

Third quarter - We started to play funny buggers in the third a bit, giving guys like Mills (twice) and Blakey (once) some time at centre bounces. We didn't win a single clearance with either of those two. But we had another good quarter, with a clearance rate of 57%, albeit we didn't score from any of them. Once again, a good variety of winners, with Grundy, Heeney, McInerney and Rowbottom all winning clearances. The latter attended 13 consecutive centre bounces across the second and third quarters, and we won 62% of our centre clearances in that run.

Fourth quarter - Things started to fall away again here as our clearance rate dropped to just 36%, on par with the first term. Not helped by the fact that Gawn won two clearances out of the ruck, and Pickett started to get off the chain. On an individual front, Sheldrick had a good quarter though, winning two clearances, including his first for the year (!) that led led to a score.

 

[SwansProudly]

How the number of metres gained/disposal i.e kicks and handballs since 2022.
2025 we had 26.3 metres gained/kick and 1.2 metresgained/handball
2025 we had 28.7 metres gained/kick and 3.7 metres gained/handball

Round 8 2026

The good teams, the bad teams, the ugly league

thisweekinaustralianfootball.substack.com

Authors Lincoln Tracy, PhD, Emlyn Breese, and Joe Cordy
(Assuming Joe Cordy is possible brother of Neil Cordy, as Neil tweets Joe's articles.

 

[Ticky009]

 

[Millky95]

Do find it strange that Hawthorn drew with Collingwood and improve but we win and go backwards

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Centre bounce stats for this week's game against Melbourne.

Combinations

View attachment 2601675

Individuals

View attachment 2601676

This week's were really interesting because it seemed like there were real ebbs and flows in the centre, so I thought rather than go over each combination and individual's numbers, I'd instead break down each quarter.

First quarter - The combinations of Grundy with all of Heeney, McInerney, Papley and Warner were used seven times, dominating the centre bounce usage, but for a combined clearance rate of just 29%, and Melbourne took it inside 50 from every one of their clearance wins, which I think matches the eye test. It did feel like we were getting belted out of the centre early on. From the two clearances we did win, we managed to score from one of them at least.

Second quarter - There was actually only one combination that was used more than once in this quarter, so we went with a lot more variety and mixed up our combinations a lot more. The one constant was Rowbottom, who attended every centre bounce for the quarter. Overall we went from a clearance rate of 36% in the first term to 63% in the second term. All of Heeney, McInerney, Rowbottom and Warner won clearances, and we scored from two of them.

Third quarter - We started to play funny buggers in the third a bit, giving guys like Mills (twice) and Blakey (once) some time at centre bounces. We didn't win a single clearance with either of those two. But we had another good quarter, with a clearance rate of 57%, albeit we didn't score from any of them. Once again, a good variety of winners, with Grundy, Heeney, McInerney and Rowbottom all winning clearances. The latter attended 13 consecutive centre bounces across the second and third quarters, and we won 62% of our centre clearances in that run.

Fourth quarter - Things started to fall away again here as our clearance rate dropped to just 36%, on par with the first term. Not helped by the fact that Gawn won two clearances out of the ruck, and Pickett started to get off the chain. On an individual front, Sheldrick had a good quarter though, winning two clearances, including his first for the year (!) that led led to a score.

Thanks caesar88 I was eagerly awaiting this.

It aligns to my eye test on the day, which I can sum up as Papley overused in the centre, Sheldrick underused.

But the thing that I thought hurt us was the number of times Melbourne cleared it directly into forward 50. Regardless of the player mix, it looked like our set-up left us vulnerable to fast forward exits.

One other observation: we got warned for a 6-6-6 late in the game. It was because there was a committee meeting trying to figure out who should be in the centre. Gus was ultimately dispatched forward - but it was too late to avoid the warning.

 

[caesar88]

Thanks caesar88 I was eagerly awaiting this.

It aligns to my eye test on the day, which I can sum up as Papley overused in the centre, Sheldrick underused.

But the thing that I thought hurt us was the number of times Melbourne cleared it directly into forward 50. Regardless of the player mix, it looked like our set-up left us vulnerable to fast forward exits.

One other observation: we got warned for a 6-6-6 late in the game. It was because there was a committee meeting trying to figure out who should be in the centre. Gus was ultimately dispatched forward - but it was too late to avoid the warning.

Sheldrick was used sparingly, but perhaps strategically. Six of his nine CBAs for the game came in the second half. So we basically injected him into the game with relatively fresh legs, and he proved quite effective.

That also aligns with the total lack of Rowbottom in the first quarter, followed by the total opposite in the second & third quarters.

These things combined make it not inconceivable that perhaps we anticipated a free-flowing shootout early on, which would favour the Papleys & McInerneys in the centre, and planned to tighten the screws as the game went on, which is why we preserved the more contested guys like Rowy & Sheldrick.

And I think it worked, more or less. We hung in there enough in the first, then Rowbottom helped significantly stifle their supply out of the centre in the second*, and then Sheldrick was impactful late.

Or perhaps I'm just giving the coaches too much credit.

*I agree about Melbourne's clearances out the front of the centre bounce, but the large majority of them came early on. After quarter time a lot more of their clearances were backward ones out of the stoppage, or Gawn dump kicking out of the defensive side. (He did that a lot, and I think it's the one area I think Grundy comprehensively beats him, as Grundy takes strides to carry the ball forward and use his hands more, whereas Gawn doesn't really have that ability.)