The war against renewable energy

[nut]

Make that $125 a KWH installed!!!!

How cheap is battery storage? | Ember

The latest capex and Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) for large, long-duration utility-scale Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) across global markets outside China and the US

ember-energy.org

 

[nut]

The most efficient OCGT gas turbines at AUD$12/GJ are AUD$100/MWh just for the gas. Ignoring all other costs. For the most efficient CCGT it's AUD$67.50 just for the gas.
(note not much CCGT being built)

US$76MWh is $114/MWh including all costs.


Building new gas plants are not viable anymore.

 

[jim boy]

This is the same government subsidizing electric conversion for heating and hot water.

For every Kwh of energy your Gas Heating uses, it produces around 0.2 kg of Carbon Dioxide equivalent greenhouse gasses.
For every Kwh of energy your brad spanking heat pump uses, its around 0.87 Kg. More than 4 times as much.
Electric heating and hot water is NOT helping the environment.
It is helping the government deal with their gas shortage.

Facetious argument conveniently ignoring the fact that Heat Pumps use 70% less energy to produce the same amount of heat, and also assuming that electricity generated is from coal.

Quite frankly gas is past it, there is nothing green about it and it has no hope of becoming carbon neutral like electricity. While some of the issue is supply, the problem is that Heat Pumps and induction stoves are not cheap and many people will install the cheapest option, especially in situations where the person responsible for the CapEx (e.g. a landlord) is not responsible for the OpEx (e.g. renter) despite gas costing significantly more over the long run. Sometimes regulation is required to break that cycle, like when cheap iridescent light globes were banned.

 

[nut]

Facetious argument conveniently ignoring the fact that Heat Pumps use 70% less energy to produce the same amount of heat, and also assuming that electricity generated is from coal.

Quite frankly gas is past it, there is nothing green about it and it has no hope of becoming carbon neutral like electricity. While some of the issue is supply, the problem is that Heat Pumps and induction stoves are not cheap and many people will install the cheapest option, especially in situations where the person responsible for the CapEx (e.g. a landlord) is not responsible for the OpEx (e.g. renter) despite gas costing significantly more over the long run. Sometimes regulation is required to break that cycle, like when cheap iridescent light globes were banned.

If you aren’t running your heat pump hot water during the day then you are an idiot…. Especially if you have solar.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

If you aren’t running your heat pump hot water during the day then you are an idiot…. Especially if you have solar.

Whoa there. If you don't have solar and a TOU tariff, you are better running a heat pump at night as rates are lower.

 

[nut]

Whoa there. If you don't have solar and a TOU tariff, you are better running a heat pump at night as rates are lower.

You can get free power from 10
am and 2pm in most areas…

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

You can get free power from 10
am and 2pm in most areas…

I've explained before, It's not "free" - nothing is free. The tariff is higher the rest of the day.

So if a user consumes more power in the evening, they are better off avoiding a 10 - 2 "free" tariff agreement.

 

[nut]

I've explained before, It's not "free" - nothing is free. The tariff is higher the rest of the day.

So if a user consumes more power in the evening, they are better off avoiding a 10 - 2 "free" tariff agreement.

Depends entirely on someone’s usage patterns…
If you can shift the majority of your power usage inside these periods, washing, drying, hot water, pre-heat and cool your house, ev charging, dishwasher… etc…. Then the higher rates later want bite as much.
There are also low wholesale rates with companies like Amber 95% of the time.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Facetious argument conveniently ignoring the fact that Heat Pumps use 70% less energy to produce the same amount of heat, and also assuming that electricity generated is from coal.

Quite frankly gas is past it, there is nothing green about it and it has no hope of becoming carbon neutral like electricity. While some of the issue is supply, the problem is that Heat Pumps and induction stoves are not cheap and many people will install the cheapest option, especially in situations where the person responsible for the CapEx (e.g. a landlord) is not responsible for the OpEx (e.g. renter) despite gas costing significantly more over the long run. Sometimes regulation is required to break that cycle, like when cheap iridescent light globes were banned.

Yet Victoria's CO2/KWh electricity is increasing. Or do you refute the official figures .?
Do you dispute that the emissions from a state of the art gas power station can be 1/4 that of brown Coal ?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

The most efficient OCGT gas turbines at AUD$12/GJ are AUD$100/MWh just for the gas. Ignoring all other costs. For the most efficient CCGT it's AUD$67.50 just for the gas.
(note not much CCGT being built)

US$76MWh is $114/MWh including all costs.


Building new gas plants are not viable anymore.

There are plenty of gas plants not being utilised.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

so, new modelling tells us prices in 2040 will be higher than they are today once coal exits the grid.

Spot price during non sunlight hours doubles

Prices in winter months will be 4 times higher than current prices.

Modelling spot prices in a post-coal grid, when big batteries will become the price setters

Electricity prices can be kept near today’s levels in a post-coal National Electricity Market, but need a system where batteries become the dominant price-forming technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

Who would have thought that a variable renewable grid would struggle at night and during winter. I am shocked.

 

[CM86]

so, new modelling tells us prices in 2040 will be higher than they are today once coal exits the grid.

Spot price during non sunlight hours doubles

Prices in winter months will be 4 times higher than current prices.

Modelling spot prices in a post-coal grid, when big batteries will become the price setters

Electricity prices can be kept near today’s levels in a post-coal National Electricity Market, but need a system where batteries become the dominant price-forming technology.

reneweconomy.com.au

Who would have thought that a variable renewable grid would struggle at night and during winter. I am shocked.

Can you either quote or post what you're referring to, please?
Because you don't seem to be accurately reflecting the information of the article you've linked.

Is it this?


Or maybe this?


Both of which show prices will be lower on average... Not higher.

What part of the article you linked, tells you that renewables aren't the way forward?

Also, you're wrong about the graph post you replied to in the Bondi massacre thread. You should look up the basics around linear growth and what a Regression Line is (Line of best fit).

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Can you either quote or post what you're referring to, please?
Because you don't seem to be accurately reflecting the information of the article you've linked.

Is it this? View attachment 2501542


Or maybe this?
View attachment 2501543

Both of which show prices will be lower on average... Not higher.

What part of the article you linked, tells you that renewables aren't the way forward?

Also, you're wrong about the graph post you replied to in the Bondi massacre thread. You should look up the basics around linear growth and what a Regression Line is (Line of best fit).

I'm not sure who created this chart, but drawing a straight line between the first and last points is not a regression line. The line of best fit is designed to minimise the sum of the squared residuals. In this case, the residuals are not normally distributed meaning the underlying data needs to be transformed.

 

[jim boy]

What part of the article you linked, tells you that renewables aren't the way forward?

Just ignore him - he wants to use the article to say that prices will be four times higher in winter, and then cherry picks one piece of data that "appears" to demonstrate this, and just completely ignores the rest of the article which explicitly states that consumer price will be broadly comparable with today's prices.

Textbook example of cognitive dissonance.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Just ignore him - he wants to use the article to say that prices will be four times higher in winter, and then cherry picks one piece of data that "appears" to demonstrate this, and just completely ignores the rest of the article which explicitly states that consumer price will be broadly comparable with today's prices.

Textbook example of cognitive dissonance.

Lol. You don't need the quotation marks around the word appears to make it seem like it's some sort of fiction. The 2040 forecast price for June is close to $500 / MWh, four times higher than the historical price.

 

[Del203211]

nut do you know much about this, and if it goes ahead will it impact solar panels?

UK scientists to launch outdoor geoengineering experiments

Blocking sunlight could temporarily slow the climate crisis but the technologies remain highly controversial

www.theguardian.com

 

[Del203211]

SaintsSeptember you seem very knowledgeable and reasonable on the topic also - do you know much about the above?

 

[CM86]

nut do you know much about this, and if it goes ahead will it impact solar panels?

UK scientists to launch outdoor geoengineering experiments

Blocking sunlight could temporarily slow the climate crisis but the technologies remain highly controversial

www.theguardian.com

I'd say the problem is that it's a temporary fix, like a band aid. Meaning that it will just be an ever increasing and never ending requirement to make the Earth liveable.

Also, from what I understand, it doesn't prevent the radiation into the atmosphere, but displaces it. Which would create even more problems for other areas.


This could work short term for small areas like the UK. But would be overall detrimental to the rest of the world's population, and doesn't address the cause of climate change.

 

[nut]

The death of petrol motorbikes.

 

[CD Xbow]

This article linked below seems to suggest solar has been a real boon in maintaining the grid during heatwaves.



'Geoff Eldridge, an electrical engineer who runs consultancy Global Power Energy, said the whole episode was striking for what was not happening.

"Hot summer days have long been a stress test for electricity systems," Mr Eldridge wrote in a post on Substack.

"High temperatures drive demand upward, air-conditioners run hard and supply margins are scrutinised closely.

"This week's heat has again pushed demand toward record levels.

"Yet the system response has looked noticeably different'.

From scourge to saviour: How the sun powered the grid through a heatwave

For so long, the pounding sunshine of an Australian heatwave was the grid's biggest threat. It has now become its greatest asset.

www.abc.net.au

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

This article linked below seems to suggest solar has been a real boon in maintaining the grid during heatwaves.

View attachment 2508159

'Geoff Eldridge, an electrical engineer who runs consultancy Global Power Energy, said the whole episode was striking for what was not happening.

"Hot summer days have long been a stress test for electricity systems," Mr Eldridge wrote in a post on Substack.

"High temperatures drive demand upward, air-conditioners run hard and supply margins are scrutinised closely.

"This week's heat has again pushed demand toward record levels.

"Yet the system response has looked noticeably different'.

From scourge to saviour: How the sun powered the grid through a heatwave

For so long, the pounding sunshine of an Australian heatwave was the grid's biggest threat. It has now become its greatest asset.

www.abc.net.au

As the article says, it hasn't fixed concerns, just shifted them.

The shift has increased the risk of problems in winter.

By contrast, he said the risks were now becoming much more severe in winter, when demand for electricity can be extremely high but output from solar is much lower.

and also during evenings

For starters, he said, while solar power helped take much of the sting out of daytime supply concerns, it was much less helpful in the evening.

According to Mr Eldridge, most of the pressure on the electricity system — including during heatwaves — came in the evening peak when the Sun had set.

During those times, he said coal was indispensable.

"Coal still provides scale and firmness," Mr Eldridge wrote.

"It remains essential overnight and into the evening."

 

[nut]

As the article says, it hasn't fixed concerns, just shifted them.

The shift has increased the risk of problems in winter.

By contrast, he said the risks were now becoming much more severe in winter, when demand for electricity can be extremely high but output from solar is much lower.

and also during evenings

For starters, he said, while solar power helped take much of the sting out of daytime supply concerns, it was much less helpful in the evening.

According to Mr Eldridge, most of the pressure on the electricity system — including during heatwaves — came in the evening peak when the Sun had set.

During those times, he said coal was indispensable.

"Coal still provides scale and firmness," Mr Eldridge wrote.

"It remains essential overnight and into the evening."

It’s a transition…

All through winter my solar was curtailed during the day… why? Because we had too much renewables.
More storage is needed, more has been added more storage is coming.

More solar and wind is needed also and is coming.

Next winter you will see close to an extra 300,000 houses not using anything from the grid because of the Cheaper home battery scheme… of which around 60,000 are connected to VPPs … which can supply power to close to another 200,000 homes.
So storage through home batteries will be supplying well over 500,000 homes by winter during peak periods….

And Victoria’s and NSWs largest batteries have just come on line….

Yes there is always a concern that the unreliable fossil fuel generators break down. But the grid is much more reliable now than it was last winter…

AEMO will always be concerned … their job is to push prices up for the boys club.

How many years have we heard that the grid isnt ready and we are going to have massive black outs in summer???

AEMO warns of increased blackout risks over coming summers, as NSW considers major coal plant extension

The national energy market operator has issued new warnings of possible summer blackouts in coming years, due to delays in key transmission projects and looming retirements of coal generators.

www.abc.net.au

Yet renewables and storage continues to strengthen the grid.

 

[nut]

Snowy 2 is projected to supply power late next year and be completed end of 2028.

 

[10571z]

Can anyone explain why these large wind and solar projects with huge runs of electricity across the state are the focus to power homes when surely getting solar panels and battery's on every single house essentially make them off grid would be easier? If we could get most of the Victorian homes "off grid" wouldn't that be far cheaper than these major infrastructure projects.

 

[nut]

Can anyone explain why these large wind and solar projects with huge runs of electricity across the state are the focus to power homes when surely getting solar panels and battery's on every single house essentially make them off grid would be easier? If we could get most of the Victorian homes "off grid" wouldn't that be far cheaper than these major infrastructure projects.

Do you think AEMO wants that?

Have you heard about the $7 Billion Cheaper Home battery scheme? Have you heard about Solar vic rebates? Have heard about Small scale energy certicates?

Virtual power plants (VPP) are better for everyone target than switching off grid!!!

Last night I help power 2-3 houses during the peak period by selling back to the grid.