Top 4 Watch - Just Taking it Several Weeks at a Time

[Big Sim]

Damn that goal post at Subiaco last night!!!!!!

If we win every game from now we are still not guaranteed the spot, but its our only shot at this stage.

Great motivator for the boys.

 

[Donstuie]

http://www.afl.com.au/bailey ladder predictor/tabid/13046/default.aspx

In short:
- Win we all our games
&
- Either Freo or the Dogs win this week

We finish in the top 4.

Neither Hawthorn or WC are really threatened that much in the other games (except for us of course), so this weekend's results are absolutely critical.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

well the Dogs will be desperate this week, so West Coast could drop that one.
Hawks could easily go down to Freo in Perth.

rnd 22 we can and will beat the Hawks

rnd 23 hawks could also lose to the Dogs

so I guess looking at the draw its more likely the Hawks will miss than the Eagles...

I agree with most of your summary but also think it is a tough ask for us to win 3 very tough games in a row (Freo, Hawks & Saints) when you consider we will have to do it with key players either out or just back into the team and lacking match fitness.

I think our best chance is to leap frog Hawthorn also as it appears almost certain the Eagles will leap frog one of us to finish 4th or even possibly leap frog us both and finish 3rd!!

The sustained effort over a 5 to 6 week period could really hurt us come rd 24 against the Saints or week 1 of the finals as we cant afford to rest anyone of our top liners although the Bye could really benefit us to re-load in rd.23!

 

[cookie monster]

I agree with most of your summary but also think it is a tough ask for us to win 3 very tough games in a row (Freo, Hawks & Saints) when you consider we will have to do it with key players either out or just back into the team and lacking match fitness.

I think our best chance is to leap frog Hawthorn also as it appears almost certain the Eagles will leap frog one of us to finish 4th or even possibly leap frog us both and finish 3rd!!

The sustained effort over a 5 to 6 week period could really hurt us come rd 24 against the Saints or week 1 of the finals as we cant afford to rest anyone of our top liners although the Bye could really benefit us to re-load in rd.23!

Pretty sure you answered your own question in the last paragraph. Round 23 bye could be a blessing in disguise, gves us another week for injury recovery and a vital rest if we are to embark on 6 weeks of sustained good performances.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Pretty sure you answered your own question in the last paragraph. Round 23 bye could be a blessing in disguise, gves us another week for injury recovery and a vital rest if we are to embark on 6 weeks of sustained good performances.

Pretty sure your right there cookie! But am also aware of the effect this could have on some with getting continuity of games leading into finals also after returning from injury lay offs.

Suppose we could give them game time with the Bullants..... wait did I just answer that question myself as well?

Nothing to worry about then!!

 

[HARKER]

Just looking more and more like we may have to settle for a 5th. position.
4th. gives us Collingwood so 3rd. would be the ideal, but can't see that one coming about as Hawthorn are ahead of us now, with a game in reserve.

I can't get too disappointed for any of our losses except for the Bulldogs one.
That's the one that really hurt.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Just looking more and more like we may have to settle for a 5th. position.
4th. gives us Collingwood so 3rd. would be the ideal, but can't see that one coming about as Hawthorn are ahead of us now, with a game in reserve.

I can't get too disappointed for any of our losses except for the Bulldogs one.
That's the one that really hurt.

Yep that was disgusting and will probably hit home more if we miss top 4. 3rd is not impossible and would really be a great position to launch a premiership assault from particularly through Geelong first!

Just need the Dockers to win this week (but hard after the derby) and go undefeated ourselves for the remainder of the season (tough also) and hope the Eagles drop a game somewhere (unlikely but possible after the derby also).

 

[HARKER]

Yep that was disgusting and will probably hit home more if we miss top 4. 3rd is not impossible and would really be a great position to launch a premiership assault from particularly through Geelong first!

It's not but I'm just riding the odds.
It just looks as though we can't afford to lose one game, and that may be a little tough.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

It's not but I'm just riding the odds.
It just looks as though we can't afford to lose one game, and that may be a little tough.

Yeah the odds are not in our favour, Freo over there with possibly Sandilands and Munday back will probably see them start slight favourites, followed by Hawthorn who will be slight favourites also and red hot Saints to finish with maybe 50/50 or us slight favourites!!

 

[HARKER]

West Coast could feasibly win the remainder of their games.
We could then win all of ours, with Hawthorn dropping their game to us whilst winning the balance of their matches and we still finish 5th.

Of course anything could happen from now until the end of the season.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Absolutely, I think Hawthorn falling to 5th is our best chance and the more likely scenario of us maintaining our top 4 position.

 

[ESKIE]

Gerard.. "Gerry Gee"... Healy on On The Couch, reckons we;re fourth on default, shouldn;t really be there, will finish 5th....he really does not like Carlton, funny thing is he had us around 11th at the start of the season, so based on that we should finish 3rd.

Anything could happen, other sides get injuries, suspensions, we get some players back...Hawthorn are only one game ahead of West Coast so they are under as much threat as anyone...they play Freo in Perth this week......flip a coin I reckon

 

[mase06]

Looking at the Eagles run home (4 bottom teams) we need to worry about the Hawks dropping out....Only hope of top 4 and if we dont make it and play the saints we'll be straight out again.........

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Gerard.. "Gerry Gee"... Healy on On The Couch, reckons we;re fourth on default, shouldn;t really be there, will finish 5th....he really does not like Carlton, funny thing is he had us around 11th at the start of the season, so based on that we should finish 3rd.

Anything could happen, other sides get injuries, suspensions, we get some players back...Hawthorn are only one game ahead of West Coast so they are under as much threat as anyone...they play Freo in Perth this week......flip a coin I reckon

Mate he said we were a false 4th because we are only half a game ahead of The Eagles who have a game in hand, and he is absolutely correct, if the ladder was done by match ratio we would be 5th!

 

[Just Kreuzing]

McPharlin copping 1 week suspension doesn't help us, would of taken Buddy, gonna be hard now for them considering they may be flat after the derby!!

 

[Team Mo']

Top 4 is almost impossible for us. I just had us win every game and we still didn't make it to the top four.

 

[ESKIE]

Mate he said we were a false 4th because we are only half a game ahead of The Eagles who have a game in hand, and he is absolutely correct, if the ladder was done by match ratio we would be 5th!

Yeh but between now and the end of the season, anything could happen, Freo have a chance of Sandi returning, Kepler Bradley to return and others, they have a big chance at home, flat after the derby.......maybe not, could be out for redemption.

We simply have to win our games, we could end up 3rd

 

[HyphensBack]

Top 4 is almost impossible for us. I just had us win every game and we still didn't make it to the top four.

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Last three games will be tough
a) win them all and I agree I still can't see us in the top 4 and surprisingly I get us playing Melbourne (soft draw?? - nope just reckon the other flogs around the mark fall over each other)
b) lose the last three and I have us finishing sixth and knocking the Swans off at home in the first week of the finals (how sweet that would be)

## Lots of water to go under the bridge yet but one of the key questions is are the Saints really back to form. My Ladder predictions are based on the fact they are but they've only really beaten one quality team (West Coast) in the last four weeks. They have a soft draw home other than us and the Pies - gut says at the moment they are the team we don't want to draw in the first week of finals.

 

[Styxx]

The win over Essendon ( which most people were skeptical of us doing.) Helped us out tremendously and by maybe 10 cms West Coast got over the line.

Fremantle can still be that X factor for us. If they can get over Hawthorn and fall to us would do wonders. I think our next two games are relatively safe is terms of who we face which gives us either less margin for error with the bye if West Coast and Hawthorn continue to win as well or gives us a week in lee-way if either team drops one.


Carlton v Hawthorn and Carlton v St Kilda are absolute must wins, Melbourne and North are should wins and Fremantle will be the real deal breaker or maker.

 

[Big Red is back]

As long as we avoid west coast in week two of the finals over there I will be happy

 

[Malifice]

Will finish 5th.

Probably play Freo in week 1 at the G - Pies to play WCE at the G, and Geelong to host Hawks at Skilled.

I can live with a game vs Freo at the MCG.

 

[BrandonG]

will we have jammo, waite, carrazzo and russell back by round 21 ? if we can beat north and Melbourne and those boys are back for freo hawks and saints i am confident we can finish top 4

 

[NAUGHT5]

As long as we avoid west coast in week two of the finals over there I will be happy

If we finish 5th and win, we'll play West Coast who will lose to Collingwood.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

If we finish 5th and win, we'll play West Coast who will lose to Collingwood.

Will only happen if West Coast finish 4th, I am suspecting they might climb to 3rd if Hawthorn drop a game.