Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Fossie 32]

View attachment 1021163

I was going to ask for more explanation but I feel bad as someone gave me a link to read up on it and I didn't try it

 

[dogzrule]

Thanks. It would be appreciated if anyone who has a good grip on all this could check my numbers but I'm pretty sure they're right (or very close).

One thing I'm not certain of is if we have a residue of points after matching a bid do they immediately give us a new pick and throw away whatever residue is left on that pick or do they wait to see if there's a later bid on one of our FS/NGA players? It usually involves only a handful of points so it doesn't make a huge difference.

For example if we match a bid at pick 1 and have a residue of 89 points that residue will give us pick 66 (worth 80 points) and presumably the remaining 9 points are discarded. However if a pick for say MacPherson comes at pick 64 and we want to match it we'd need 81 points. Our pick 66 wouldn't be enough but if we could still use the leftover 9 points we'd be OK. I've assumed they'd let us use the 9 points.

Also the more I think about it the more imponderable it becomes with picks sliding up and down.

For instance in the edit I applied to the table I said that if a bid came at pick 3 we'd get pick 53 so whoever has pick 53 slides down one place to 54 and our pick 54 slides to pick 55. That seemed clear enough until I realised that if all that happened we'd also be turning four higher picks (picks 29,33,41,42) into one (pick 3) so in fact everything after pick 42 slides UP three places!

As I said, it's way too complex to try to layout all those permutations given the large number of FS and Academy players in this draft. Nonetheless the table I posted gives a pretty good indication of how we'd fare. It's just the later rounds of the draft that get particularly messy.

Only thing that is certain is the points we have when JUH is picked given he will be the first Academy or father son In the draft.

By the time Raak or Macpherson are picked any of our remaining picks will side down the order as the F/S and academy picks are taken at their slot

 

[The Inbetweener]

Essentially the wash up of the trade to get Jamarra is
Pick 14 and a future 2nd rounder for
Treloar, pick 1 and pick 66

Pretty incredible

 

[TedDougChris]

I was going to ask for more explanation but I feel bad as someone gave me a link to read up on it and I didn't try it

There are people who know WAY more about it than I, I'm just glad they post stuff on here so I can sort of know what is going on....

 

[GetDimmaBack]

Jeez...you have to admit he does look good in Hawks colours

Mate, no-one looks good in Hawks colours.

N0- One.

 

[dogwatch]

I am waiting for someone to can GWS Giants for that pick swap so heavily in our favor.

It makes sense for both sides.

In no sane world were we ever going to draft a player with pick 26 or 33. They were always just going to be currency to snare JUH. So we might as well trade one or both of them out for higher points.

Meanwhile GWS probably have their eyes on some players they expect to go in the mid-twenties. Moving up 3 slots is a smart move as long as they had no great plans for their pick 52.

A classic win-win. Even if it's doing deals with the orange Devil.

 

[bobs head soup]

Essentially the wash up of the trade to get Jamarra is
Pick 14 and a future 2nd rounder for
Treloar, pick 1 and pick 66

Pretty incredible

I think our next order of business is to extend Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

's contract and wrap him up as tight as possible.

 

[bobs head soup]

It makes sense for both sides.

In no sane world were we ever going to draft a player with pick 26 or 33. They were always just going to be currency to snare JUH. So we might as well trade one or both of them out for higher points.

Meanwhile GWS probably have their eyes on some players they expect to go in the mid-twenties. Moving up 3 slots is a smart move as long as they had no great plans for their pick 52.

A classic win-win. Even if it's doing deals with the orange Devil.

Agree with all that, but with so many teams looking for more draft points, it's a bit surprising the Plastics couldn't find anyone else to offer them a slightly better upgrade. Good for us though so happy days.

 

[Philthy1]

I think our next order of business is to extend Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

's contract and wrap him up as tight as possible.

I believe he is permanent staff, not a fix term contractor like Bevo.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Sydney have confirmed they'll bid on JUH at 3 if he's there.

 

[Golden_6]

Sydney have confirmed they'll bid on JUH at 3 if he's there.

Hopefully that means Crows & North will just leave him alone. I’d think we’d all take a bid at pick 3.

 

[100action]

Here's the updated table on what happens at different bids on JUH. I'll post it in the JUH thread too because it'll get buried here.

We currently have picks 29,33,41,42,52,54 and 90.

View attachment 1021150

The first column shows where the bid comes for JUH. The blue column shows what picks we'd be left with if that happened. The final column shows the highest bid we could still match for either Raak or MacPherson (if we wanted to) with the remaining points. However I'd be surprised if a bid came for either of them before about 40 (if at all).

The key point is that even with a bid at pick 1 we now won't go into a deficit of points that would affect the position of our 2021 first round pick.

That was a great trade. Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

's reputation grows by the hour!

EDIT: As others have noted the later picks could slide up or down depending on a range of other possible matched bids for FS and Academy players. Far too many permutations to list here.

However I will post an update of this table (when I get a few minutes) with some minor changes caused by us matching the respective bids. For instance our matching a bid at pick 2 with the four picks shown will cause our picks 52 and 54 to slide UP by three places (to 49 and 51) but our allocation of pick 73 with residue points shouldn't change. So in that scenario we should be left with picks 49, 51, 73 and 90, not what's currently showing in the table.

It's really nothing major - just a bit of tinkering at the edges in the later rounds. And still subject to other clubs matching bids on their own FS/NGA players.

what happens with residue points, can they be used to upgrade your next available pick?

 

[Golden_6]

The Jam gets a bigger cash pay out at pick 1, with the pick swap we're sweet.

I’d still prefer a bid at pick 3, and give ourselves a chance to pick up another kid (or 2?) with some picks in the 40-50 range. We’ve done great in that mark in recent years (Williams, Daniel) and there could be some great value Vic kids given they haven’t received the typical exposure of a normal draft year.

We still have some holes on our list so if we can nab a mature small forward and a developing key back, it would be a win.

 

[weltschmerz]

I’d still prefer a bid at pick 3, and give ourselves a chance to pick up another kid (or 2?) with some picks in the 40-50 range. We’ve done great in that mark in recent years (Williams, Daniel) and there could be some great value Vic kids given they haven’t received the typical exposure of a normal draft year.

We still have some holes on our list so if we can nab a mature small forward and a developing key back, it would be a win.

I'm interested in the look of Cameron Fleeton. He's only 191cm but he can play on the big key forwards (played on the 101kg Jackson Callow).

 

[Struggle]

I'm going to be super disappointed if the crows don't bid at pick 1

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

Thanks for clearing that up for us, so you are saying that Adam Treloar

1

Adam Treloar

Age

31

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

28.2

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

15.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.9

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

30.3

5star

K

16.3

5star

HB

14.0

5star

M

2.0

2star

T

3.3

4star

CL

5.8

5star

D

18.0

5star

K

11.2

4star

HB

6.8

5star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

CL

1.6

4star

will get 4.5 Mill over the next five years, but we are only responsible for part of it and the gracious Collingwood Football Club has accepted the 1.5 Mill burden that they owe. I am getting out the good cheese and the sky is blue again.

Yes I’m saying exactly that

The $1.5 is back pay they owe there is no way we will pay it

 

[Bulldogs Legend]

Thanks. It would be appreciated if anyone who has a good grip on all this could check my numbers but I'm pretty sure they're right (or very close).

One thing I'm not certain of is if we have a residue of points after matching a bid do they immediately give us a new pick and throw away whatever residue is left on that pick or do they wait to see if there's a later bid on one of our FS/NGA players? It usually involves only a handful of points so it doesn't make a huge difference.

For example if we match a bid at pick 1 and have a residue of 89 points that residue will give us pick 66 (worth 80 points) and presumably the remaining 9 points are discarded. However if a pick for say MacPherson comes at pick 64 and we want to match it we'd need 81 points. Our pick 66 wouldn't be enough but if we could still use the leftover 9 points we'd be OK. I've assumed they'd let us use the 9 points.

Also the more I think about it the more imponderable it becomes with picks sliding up and down.

For instance in the edit I applied to the table I said that if a bid came at pick 3 we'd get pick 53 so whoever has pick 53 slides down one place to 54 and our pick 54 slides to pick 55. That seemed clear enough until I realised that if all that happened we'd also be turning four higher picks (picks 29,33,41,42) into one (pick 3) so in fact everything after pick 42 slides UP three places!

As I said, it's way too complex to try to layout all those permutations given the large number of FS and Academy players in this draft. Nonetheless the table I posted gives a pretty good indication of how we'd fare. It's just the later rounds of the draft that get particularly messy.

I will get Ned Guy on to it he is good with numbers!

 

[Norm De Guerre]

We're being lured into a trap.

I think we should pass on JUH now that teams are declaring their intent to bid with their early first round picks.

That'll show them.

 

[ScragCity]

We're being lured into a trap.

I think we should pass on JUH now that teams are declaring their intent to bid with their early first round picks.

That'll show them.

Imagine if Crows bid on him at pick 1 and then we passed and they were stuck with him! Hahahahhaha. They'd be absolutely fuming I reckon.

 

[dogwatch]

what happens with residue points, can they be used to upgrade your next available pick?

No.
It gives us an entirely new pick. They look down the Draft Index Points table and find the highest possible pick that we can get with those residue points. So for example if we had 218 points left over after matching a bid, those points will cover pick 55 (worth 207 so we'd have 11 points still left over) but not quite enough for pick 54 (needs 220 pts).

So we get pick 55 and everybody who was at pick 55 and lower slides back one place.

The only thing I'm not clear on is if we can still use those 11 leftover points if we happen to need them to help match a pick on another player (say Raak or MacPherson in our case). I'd assume they will let us use them but I don't know for sure.

 

[The Inbetweener]

If the bid doesn’t come til 3 and we end up with 52,53,54 we’d be really popular with other teams and their own academy picks.

Could trade all three to Port for their 35 or even the Pies to get our future 2nd back... if there was a universe where we would want to deal with the Pies again

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Collingwood are contracted to pay Treloar 4.5M over 5 years. We have signed a contract with Treloar for $3M over 5 years, relieving Collingwood of the obligation to find that $3M. This still leaves $1.5M that Collingwood owes Treloar. How they discharge that obligation is not our business. It's a contractual dispute between Treloar and Collingwood.

Collingwood are trying to embroil us in their dispute with Treloar, hoping we will pick up even more of their obligation... but we've said no way. We are only involved to the extent that we indulge Collingwood - which appears to be not much at all. At best we might bring forward some of our $3M obligation, however, the way Collingwood is carrying on I wouldn't hold my breath if I was Eddy.

1. Collingwood have a contract with Treloar for 4.5m over 5 years (it’s the widely quoted number so let’s agree this is correct).

2. All the articles and journo tweets during and after trade period have said Treloar will get his full amount regardless of where it comes from.

3. You are arguing that we definitively, 100% have a contract with Treloar for $600k per year (I don’t think this has been reported anywhere)

Points 1 and 2 are the only things with any clarity in this whole saga.
If point 3 were true, then there is no dispute anywhere. He will get the remainder of his cash from Collingwood. The fact that there is a dispute means that point 3 isn’t fact

 

[TBOW]

If the bid doesn’t come til 3 and we end up with 52,53,54 we’d be really popular with other teams and their own academy picks.

Could trade all three to Port for their 35 or even the Pies to get our future 2nd back... if there was a universe where we would want to deal with the Pies again

Yeah, our best hope would be for a bid to come way earlier than expected on a player and a club have to scramble for points.
Could end up with a decent 2021 pick.

 

[dogwatch]

If the bid doesn’t come til 3 and we end up with 52,53,54 we’d be really popular with other teams and their own academy picks.

Could trade all three to Port for their 35 or even the Pies to get our future 2nd back... if there was a universe where we would want to deal with the Pies again

We should just say give us pick 35 and we'll talk about the points later.
Then hang onto picks 52, 53 and 54.

Oh maybe we'd let them have pick 54 because they put in a good word for us some time last century.

 

[dogwatch]

1. Collingwood have a contract with Treloar for 4.5m over 5 years (it’s the widely quoted number so let’s agree this is correct).

2. All the articles and journo tweets during and after trade period have said Treloar will get his full amount regardless of where it comes from.

3. You are arguing that we definitively, 100% have a contract with Treloar for $600k per year (I don’t think this has been reported anywhere)

Points 1 and 2 are the only things with any clarity in this whole saga.
If point 3 were true, then there is no dispute anywhere. He will get the remainder of his cash from Collingwood. The fact that there is a dispute means that point 3 isn’t fact

To be more precise point 3 isn't a published fact yet. It may well be fact though.