Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[dogwatch]

if Dogs had the cash room

Would throw the sink at Freos Luke Ryan

Why is that VD? He doesn't seem like the ideal target to me, although I'm sure he can play.

He'll be 29 at the start of next season, is only 187cm and admittedly a handy 92kg but not quite what I had in mind by "big-bodied". I was thinking more like May or Jones.

So he might only have 2-3 good years left, meaning we still need to be searching for someone in the pipeline. So I can't see why we'd "throw the sink" at him, meaning we'd use up a lot of cash and draft capital.

Assuming we get a first rounder somehow this year (eg a Baz trade) and we still go for "best available" with that pick - let's say it's a midfielder - I'd be looking to use our second rounder to get the most promising solid u18 KPD we can find and let him develop. Then we should have something to look forward to in 2-3 years. No more scrapping around the footy op shops for a cheap castoff.

By all means if Keath, Jones, Gardner all fall by the wayside and worse still if something happened to JOD, like another concussion, we should go hard for whatever trades we can get.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Max Holes getting alot of interested and supposedly we've thrown a very good offer his way.

From all the rumors circling you can see what the club is targeting, and about time.

 

[stefoid]

Hawks chip the ball around methodically, he seems more inclined to playing directly and aggressively even if it doesn't come off all the time.

Thats why we drafted him I guess, but kicking to opponents is always horrible, particularly coming our of defence.

 

[Sentinel]

Max Holes getting alot of interested and supposedly we've thrown a very good offer his way.

From all the rumors circling you can see what the club is targeting, and about time.

Can't see it happening, but he'd be great.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Can't see it happening, but he'd be great.

Geelong have 4 infront of him but his put talks on hold.

Wait and see, but it sounds like we're trying to shake lose any medium defender we can to replace Duryea.

 

[Unorth]

baz will probably be a good player. But he has been a headache and not worth the trouble so far. Would in some ways be glad to offload him.

It’s not a great look that we can’t retain young mids though. Assume us selling the farm for Sanders was done with the knowledge that Baz was likely gone.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Can't see it happening, but he'd be great.

It's funny how much winning and losing influences players' perception of clubs, how much they want to get paid, and their recruitment of players.

Brisabne were a losing team and they spent years crying about their go-home factor and the fact that they couldn't recruit players, eventually getting a bunch of priority picks as a result. When they start winning games ... players like Joe Daniher, Josh Dunkley and a million others are happy to play there.

Same thing will work in reverse for Geelong if they don't make finals for a few years in a row.

 

[adogsfan5]

My mail is the same as weeks ago.
Baz gone and cats in front.

 

[stefoid]

Baz is goneski I’ve been saying this for a while now. He’s not a free agent so we have the upper hand at the trade table

Free agents we’ve chased Ollie Florent before I’d imagine we’d have another crack at him although the Sydney boys are all very tight

can we be screwed by nominating hawthorn and threaten the PSD kind of bullshit, assuming hawthorn is bottomish again ?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

FWIW I've also heard mail that Smith is gone too (to Hawthorn, and not Geelong), but really haven't bothered mentioning it because I'd be about the 10th person on this board with sincere mail that he's gone.

Contract figures at other clubs are in the $1.1-$1.3 million p/y range. From next year he's be about the 30th highest paid player in the league but assuming a flat amount and increased salary cap over a 5-7 year deal or whatever he'd be roughly 100th by the end of the deal.

 

[stefoid]

baz will probably be a good player. But he has been a headache and not worth the trouble so far. Would in some ways be glad to offload him.

It’s not a great look that we can’t retain young mids though. Assume us selling the farm for Sanders was done with the knowledge that Baz was likely gone.

Its pretty clear Sanders is an upgrade on Baz. Baz loves to run and carry, but he lacks Sanders composure and evasiveness, and his disposal is messy because of it.

I dont know who next years draftees are, but if we get another crack a top end mid with whatever we get for Baz, it might end up being a net positive - can only hope.

 

[Sentinel]

I honestly think we'd be doing well to walk away with anything close to a mid first round pick for Baz.

 

[Bald]

I honestly think we'd be doing well to walk away with anything close to a mid first round pick for Baz.

I'm in this camp, we'll end up with something 10-12 range. With the off field drama, coupled with the drop off in form I'd suggest he was worth roughly where we drafted him, if you factor in the ACL it brings it back a little. We drafted him at 7, so the ACL pushes it out to 10ish.

 

[Doggy]

If you're willing to pay that sort of dough, you can't offer s**t in a trade

That is bad faith

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I honestly think we'd be doing well to walk away with anything close to a mid first round pick for Baz.

What's the alternative? Dogs reject the offer of a second round pick and if the AFL were to enforce the rules properly, Bailey Smith has to walk into the pre-season draft with his desired contract on his head and go through that gauntlet? The desire to avoid that effectively weird series of events that effectively last took place when Nick Stevens went from Port to Carlton in 2004 has seen teams eventually trade draft picks that are roughly equivalent to the size of the salary of a player. If Smith in indeed becoming one of the highest paid players in the league, that roughly equates to a top 10 draft pick.

 

[doggies ftw]

You don’t lose players of Baz ability for less than a top 10 pick, there’s a reason clubs are offering long term deals at over a mil obviously

You’re paying up

If we get a top 8 pick I’ll be upset but happy enough to cut our losses and move on and find a replacement on rookie wages. Anything worse than a top 10 pick would be a disaster for our list build considering the age profile of our midfield

 

[BIG_BONTS]

I'm going to go against the grain and say on nothing more than a feeling that he's going to stay. This is all clever posturing from his management.

If he leaves Baz is worth a mid first. 6 seasons in, he's at 95% of his peak abilities. He's a poor man's Dangerfield with more marketing upside. I feel nervous everytime he has the ball in his hands. Would walk away happy if we got anything below Pick 10. Any clubs willing to pay him $1.3M pa is crazy. On footballing ability worth $700k, $100k for potential, $100k for marketing (sells 500 memberships per year) = $900k over 3 years max is the most I'd be willing to do

 

[Packofdogs]

I spoke to ex player in January and got the same info on Baz as other people on here have! The interesting take away from our rather long chat was that Baz is really hard to put up with on occasions. He was describing him as next level up person with some really strange ways of conducting himself.
On another player escapee - Dunkley. A mate of mine who worked at the club was talking to some ex players and they described him in this way that Josh was for Josh 1st,2nd,3rd,4th & 5th then some other people and then maybe the club.
Both don’t seem to be that popular. There is a little connection between Dunkley and Smith.In Queensland in 2020 Dunkley complained to Bevo, Maple and the Bont that the club would never play finals again with the Hunter group at the club. Baz along with some others were in that group.

If we can get a top 10 pick for Baz great! We need quick players who can hit targets. Baz does have real trouble hitting targets. Maybe Baz and Dunkley had little connection to our club?

 

[dergert]

Dreaming if we think we will get a top 10 selection for Smith. We will settle for a late teens at absolute very best.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Also not sure what the length of deal/dollars has to do with us supposedly being able to demand a higher pick because of it. If he goes he'll nominate his club and like 95% of the deals in the AFL it will get done.

 

[Mofra]

I don't think so either, Duggan probably the best at it but not his bread and butter. Alot of shut-down small defenders go undrafted every year because it isn't a pretty position.

I thought he was always more of an offensive player?

Gags got himself on the radar after getting shifted into defence for 6 weeks and absolutely killing it.

I think he's shown a bit of promise on the wing though and I'd persist with him there. Not quite sold on his CBA work yet.

 

[Mofra]

This years draft is mid heavy and Father Time is ticking away on our aging midfield group. I’d be surprised if we accepted a future pick.

Unless we can trade back in.
Potential FS next year means we'd be tempted to package 2x picks

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I really can’t see the club accepting anything outside a top 10 pick.

We got shafted in the Dunkley trade, now we get another go at it with a club likely to finish bottom 6. The club will be salivating at the chance to bring in a high pick.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Unless we can trade back in.
Potential FS next year means we'd be tempted to package 2x picks

I forgot about the 2025 FS’s.

If we go the 2024 1st rounder for Smith, I hope we look at trading the future 1st to pick up two mids this year.

 

[Doggies7]

Max Holes getting alot of interested and supposedly we've thrown a very good offer his way.

From all the rumors circling you can see what the club is targeting, and about time.

Great pr0n star name