Trade possibilities.

[Stocka]

Considering some of the players reported to be up for trades, and having some idea about the situation faced by the Lions, what might be some possible trades that could go ahead?

It seems as though the Hawks are unwilling to deal with Rawlings unless they receive an established player in return, which the Kangaroos are unable to offer.

Perhaps we could do the following three-way trade:

Lions: Trade D.Bradshaw to Hawks. Gain pick #9 from Kangaroos.

Hawks: Trade J.Rawlings to Kangaroos. Gain D.Bradshaw from Lions.

Kangaroos: Trade pick #9 to Lions. Gain J.Rawlings from Hawks.


Perhaps we could also get involved in the N.Brown saga as well . . .

Lions: Trade T.Notting to Bulldogs. Gain pick #21 from Richmond.

Richmond: Trade pick #6 to Bulldogs and pick #21 to Lions. Gain N.Brown from Bulldogs.

Bulldogs: Trade N.Brown to Richmond. Gain pick #6 from Richmond and T.Notting from Lions.

 

[tfcha2]

We'd be idiots to trade Bradshaw, particularly as three of our latest high picks (cupido, Headland, Gram) have all been traded or about to be traded by their request.

If we have good key position players that want to stay, we should hang on to em for dear life.

 

[ztearg sirhc]

Those trades look good but don't have enough knowledge to know about these players as I havn't seen them for long. Bradshaw was good this year but if we need to afford other players then we need to lose who we need to lose. I have also been tight on money so know a bit what the club is going through. But only a tiny bit.

Ztearg.

 

[Stocka]

Originally posted by tfcha2
We'd be idiots to trade Bradshaw, particularly as three of our latest high picks (cupido, Headland, Gram) have all been traded or about to be traded by their request.

If we have good key position players that want to stay, we should hang on to em for dear life.

Well, we might not have a choice, if the salary cap squeeze becomes too tight. As much as I like Bradshaw, I would rather trade him than Power or Michael, that's for sure.

The trading of Cupido, Headland and Gram is really irrelevant to the case in point (and you are also forgetting the likes of McGrath and Brennan amongst others in the list of recent high draftees), and if we got a return of a first round pick for Bradshaw, I would think that would be a fairly good return. Who we draft with the pick then, is another matter entirely.

 

[keatings_gal]

dont want grammy to go....
& i dont rekcon its just coz he wants to get the opportunities...
hes just home sick... coz he is shy it takes it out more on him than some of the others i reckon... very good kid.....that good that i got his number on my jumper last year actually... very big wraps for the kid...
i reckon he will be a constant senior player @ any other club coz he has just come along so well in the time with the ressies here - Craig Brittian does such a good job with all the young blokes.... & the fruits of his labour is beginning to really shine with Jamie & richie & ash all playing in the big one.... great that grammy got to make his debut this year though & he did some good things & then did alright in the other one as well....
it will be interesting to see what will happen with boofa if grammy does go.....

although its very sad to lose anyone, & more sad to lose one of those 2 ferals....more space for jimmy... perhaps jimmy could wear the #7 if grammy does go home....

 

[Maverick]

Originally posted by Stocka
Considering some of the players reported to be up for trades, and having some idea about the situation faced by the Lions, what might be some possible trades that could go ahead?

It seems as though the Hawks are unwilling to deal with Rawlings unless they receive an established player in return, which the Kangaroos are unable to offer.

Perhaps we could do the following three-way trade:

Lions: Trade D.Bradshaw to Hawks. Gain pick #9 from Kangaroos.

Hawks: Trade J.Rawlings to Kangaroos. Gain D.Bradshaw from Lions.

Kangaroos: Trade pick #9 to Lions. Gain J.Rawlings from Hawks.


Perhaps we could also get involved in the N.Brown saga as well . . .

Lions: Trade T.Notting to Bulldogs. Gain pick #21 from Richmond.

Richmond: Trade pick #6 to Bulldogs and pick #21 to Lions. Gain N.Brown from Bulldogs.

Bulldogs: Trade N.Brown to Richmond. Gain pick #6 from Richmond and T.Notting from Lions.

Glad your not running the show stockman.....might as well just give our players away. Dual premiership player for pick 21???

 

[SpecialBruce]

Originally posted by keatings_gal

although its very sad to lose anyone, & more sad to lose one of those 2 ferals....more space for jimmy... perhaps jimmy could wear the #7 if grammy does go home....

Umm, who said this Jimmy bloke will even be on the rookie list next year? You? There is a chance he won't even be on the list next year, hell even a chance he won't be training with the club.

 

[Stocka]

Maverick, a second round pick for Notting is spot on. You would expect to get a player of his worth out of the second round of the draft. If you coughed up a first round pick for him you'd have to be somewhat disappointed so far with his output.

Whether or not Notting has played in two Premiership sides is irrelevant. How significant was he in those years? He played a role, but I'd argue that he wasn't even in the top 10 players for the team in either of those years. I mean, Aaron Keating was also a dual Premiership player, was he not?

Also, you can't hide his absence from this year's side either.

In fact, I would argue that Notting has lost favour with the match/selection committee, and also that he has not improved his game significantly enough since his appearances in 1999. His game still has the same faults that it had back then - predictable, one-dimensional, erratic and also prone to laziness and lack of physical commitment. Any concerted opposition effort on him, and he's found out far too easily.

Trade him now while he's still worth something - and especially when the salary cap squeeze is getting tight. I mean, who would you rather lose, Maverick? Michael, Power, Lappin or Notting? Pretty simple choice I would have thought.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by Stocka
Considering some of the players reported to be up for trades, and having some idea about the situation faced by the Lions, what might be some possible trades that could go ahead?

It seems as though the Hawks are unwilling to deal with Rawlings unless they receive an established player in return, which the Kangaroos are unable to offer.

Perhaps we could do the following three-way trade:

Lions: Trade D.Bradshaw to Hawks. Gain pick #9 from Kangaroos.

Hawks: Trade J.Rawlings to Kangaroos. Gain D.Bradshaw from Lions.

Kangaroos: Trade pick #9 to Lions. Gain J.Rawlings from Hawks.


Perhaps we could also get involved in the N.Brown saga as well . . .

Lions: Trade T.Notting to Bulldogs. Gain pick #21 from Richmond.

Richmond: Trade pick #6 to Bulldogs and pick #21 to Lions. Gain N.Brown from Bulldogs.

Bulldogs: Trade N.Brown to Richmond. Gain pick #6 from Richmond and T.Notting from Lions.

Both those trades are absolute jokes! Brisbane get ripped off majorly by both of them! Both Bradshaw and Rawlings are far far better than a #9 draft pick. And with the 2nd one yeah ok let's have Brisbane getting pick #21 while the Bulldogs get pick #6 AND Possum! It doesn't make sense!

My point of view is that once players spend a few years in the system, they (fairly obviously) become better players, and up to the point where they're 27 or 28, they are prime targets for other clubs. At the age of 23-25 they are at their most valuable in terms of trade value, so how you can possibly throw away Bradshaw and Notting for such terrible returns (i.e. draft picks) when they are at their most valuable is... well I have trouble understanding your logic put it that way.

If I was to trade Bradshaw I would want an established key marking forward or tall defender in return (no older than 25), and if I was to trade Notting I would want an established wingman or half back/forward flanker (again, no older than 25). Why? Because that is what they will be at any other club. THEY ARE VALUABLE PLAYERS so Brisbane must play hard ball with them. Much much harder ball than they played with Jason Gram. Still shaking my head at that one it is an absolute joke.

Anyway back on Bradshaw and Notting if I was to get involved in the whole draft picks thing for Bradshaw I would want a high draft pick and a young tall (no older than 22 - Lethal could groom him to be versatile and play at both ends at that age), and for Notting I would be after maybe another 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick and another youngster. Anything extra would be a bonus, anything less would be unacceptable - Gramesque, if you like.

I think a lot of people underestimate the extra value of players just through having played 50-100 games at the highest level, especially in the case of Bradshaw and Notting, both of who have played in a multitude of finals, and both have 2 premiership medallions around their necks. I mean sure, they only have these experiences as a result of playing at Brisbane (not the other way round as some of the uncontracted players would like to believe), but the fact is that they do have those experiences, and those experiences add to a player's value, especially when they go to another club.

 

[Beausgirl43]

Originally posted by SpecialBruce
Umm, who said this Jimmy bloke will even be on the rookie list next year? There is a chance he won't even be on the list next year, hell even a chance he won't be training with the club.

Your suppose to have this great source at the club who apparently knows all about who's staying and who's going, ask them if he's on the list or not.

 

[keatings_gal]

whatever SB..... yeah read what karen just wrote & get over yourself ok.... cant a girl just be optimistic... hes a damn good player & i just reckon that the club would be silly not to rookie list the kid who played so hard & professional for us for almost a year in the reserves....he just showed so much for a kid from up north who drove the long trip to play for us every week... & his leadership skills as well were high....you've never even seen him play so you will just have to rely on us to tell you hes good.. just like we believe other ppl who talk about players from other states that we have never seen before.... yeah just like whats your opinion on the likes of Jarrad Wright & selwood... coz you havent seen them play but are happy to past horrible judgements about ppl without even knowing the whole damn story... its just a bit of fun

 

[Beausgirl43]

Amen sister keatings-gal.

 

[SpecialBruce]

Originally posted by Beausgirl43
Your suppose to have this great source at the club who apparently knows all about who's staying and who's going, ask them if he's on the list or not.

That's an OLS.

Originally posted by Keatings_Gal

whatever SB..... yeah read what karen just wrote & get over yourself ok

So is that!

 

[Stocka]

Originally posted by rchowell
Both those trades are absolute jokes! Brisbane get ripped off majorly by both of them! Both Bradshaw and Rawlings are far far better than a #9 draft pick.

Pick #9 is spot on for both those players. If you are to take the maroon, blue and gold (or brown and gold) coloured glasses off, you'd see that any other year, they would have been worth less. Rawlings had a very good year, but has hardly made a career of them so far, and Bradshaw is not first selected for any position in the Lions team. A pick within the top 10 in the draft is a good result all things considered. B.Holland, who I would regard as being just as talented as either Rawlings or Bradshaw, only cost Melbourne pick #20 or so.

The fact that the clubs who have the first four or so picks in the draft this year have all basically said that they would not trade them for anything, shows how highly clubs regard such picks. Early picks in the draft, such as pick #9, offer a lot of flexibility for any club who is wanting to specifically target players.

Originally posted by rchowell
And with the 2nd one yeah ok let's have Brisbane getting pick #21 while the Bulldogs get pick #6 AND Possum! It doesn't make sense!

N.Brown is generally regarded as a top-line player, who is highly sought after by most clubs - being the "biggest" name player in the trade talks (unlike Notting who should only be worth a second round pick).

Someone like Brown, might be worth throwing a bit of weight after for some clubs, who want someone of his quality. To some extent, I would argue that he is somewhat over-rated in terms of what clubs appear willing to give up for him (or indeed pay him), but with that said, I don't see anyone offering similar deals for Notting.

Originally posted by rchowell
My point of view is that once players spend a few years in the system, they (fairly obviously) become better players, and up to the point where they're 27 or 28, they are prime targets for other clubs. At the age of 23-25 they are at their most valuable in terms of trade value, so how you can possibly throw away Bradshaw and Notting for such terrible returns (i.e. draft picks) when they are at their most valuable is... well I have trouble understanding your logic put it that way.

The returns for those players aren't terrible at all. In fact, I'd argue that the draft picks that I suggested in exchange for the players mentioned, are pretty much spot on in regards to the type of pick you'd expect to outlay for such players.

The fact that you fail to understand my logic is mainly due to the fact that you don't seem to rate early draft picks as being an important acquisition. That's fair enough if you have that opinion, although, I myself differ as stated above.

As I've already stated my opinion above on draft picks, there's no need to rehash old ground - although, I will add though, that using this belief about draft picks, I believe that my proposed trades are indeed logical, consistent and fair.

Originally posted by rchowell
If I was to trade Bradshaw I would want an established key marking forward or tall defender in return (no older than 25), and if I was to trade Notting I would want an established wingman or half back/forward flanker (again, no older than 25). Why? Because that is what they will be at any other club. THEY ARE VALUABLE PLAYERS so Brisbane must play hard ball with them.

The problem for trading one established player for another, is that we reportedly have tight salary cap situation. If we could afford established players, I would much rather keep the ones who we were trading away. However, if we can't afford them, I see more sense in trading for as decent draft picks as we can reasonably expect - and I think my expectations of the types of draft picks which we may receive in return are spot on (I've given my justification of this).

Originally posted by rchowell
Much much harder ball than they played with Jason Gram. Still shaking my head at that one it is an absolute joke.

I can't remember what pick we outlayed for Gram in the first place, but considering he only played two games in the same amount of seasons, pick 23 is a pretty good return.

Certainly no-one is going to outlay a top-10 pick for a dime-a-dozen flanker who has been virtually untried in two years of being on a team's list.

Originally posted by rchowell
Anyway back on Bradshaw and Notting if I was to get involved in the whole draft picks thing for Bradshaw I would want a high draft pick and a young tall (no older than 22 - Lethal could groom him to be versatile and play at both ends at that age), and for Notting I would be after maybe another 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick and another youngster. Anything extra would be a bonus, anything less would be unacceptable - Gramesque, if you like.

Well, I would argue that your expectations are too high in terms of trade returns.

Unless it is known that a team in particular is desperately willing to outlay such returns for a specific player, I'd argue, that for the players mentioned, no-one would give such returns in exchange. In which case, if you are trying to secure some reasonable returns for trades of players in order to free up salary cap room, you are shooting yourself in the foot.

Originally posted by rchowell
I think a lot of people underestimate the extra value of players just through having played 50-100 games at the highest level, especially in the case of Bradshaw and Notting, both of who have played in a multitude of finals, and both have 2 premiership medallions around their necks.

Well, I would argue that some people underestimate the value of having early draft picks. Likewise, I would argue that most supporters have a tendency to over-rate their club's own players, especially in comparison to the way other clubs (or supporters of other clubs) view them in return.

Similarly, as mentioned before, if it's a case of having to free up salary cap space, I'd have a fair idea of the players I'd want to keep, and those whom I'd look at first in terms of a mini-cleanout in order to receive some decent (money-saving) draft picks in return.

Originally posted by rchowell
I mean sure, they only have these experiences as a result of playing at Brisbane (not the other way round as some of the uncontracted players would like to believe), but the fact is that they do have those experiences, and those experiences add to a player's value, especially when they go to another club.

To be objective, the experiences only add a value to the amount which is proportionate to the amount of significance that those players had in achieving those outcomes. In the case of Notting and Bradshaw, this is significantly less than the likes of the the top-liners at the club.

 

[keatings_gal]

yeah good onya SB.....

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by Stocka
The problem for trading one established player for another, is that we reportedly have tight salary cap situation. If we could afford established players, I would much rather keep the ones who we were trading away. However, if we can't afford them, I see more sense in trading for as decent draft picks as we can reasonably expect - and I think my expectations of the types of draft picks which we may receive in return are spot on (I've given my justification of this).

Fair point. I hadn't considered the salary cap issue, I was only considering getting a fair deal out of the trade, and considering that in isolation. It's all a point of view thing. Some people think it is time for the Lions to rebuild, and in general that means trying to get good draft picks. I agree with this notion. However I am also of the belief that, having won three premierships in a row, the club is almost obliged to at least make an attempt to win it again next year, which may not be best achieved by dipping deeply into the draft. It will be interesting to see how the club manages to juggle the two sides of the story. I for one am a realist, and I have think it is fairly unlikely for Brisbane to win the premiership next year, and in fact I think they will do well to make the top 4 (in which case they will be red hot chance to win it but they have to get there first, and who could blame them for getting slightly bored with home and away games?). However, while the window of opportunity remains open, I think they have every right to target the ultimate prize. It has been 70 years since South Melbourne/Sydney won a premiership, and although we don't like thinking about it, the same thing could just as easily happen to Brisbane. So they have to make the most of it.

Originally posted by Stocka
Well, I would argue that some people underestimate the value of having early draft picks.

The value of draft picks is very hard to measure. In my mind it really is like a lottery. Some seasons there are players like Riewoldt, Pavlich, Judd as was mentioned in another thread, but then you have Josh Fraser who was a number one draft pick. Now Fraser is not a bad player but in my mind not worthy of a number one pick. Hindisght is a wonderful thing, and admittedly recruiters are getting better at their job, so in theory the best players will get taken early more and more regularly, but there is still a pretty big risk associated with swapping an established starting 18 player with an unknown, an unknown who may well turn out to be a very good player, but in any case might not earn a spot in the team for a couple of seasons, and he may well turn out to be a complete dud. That is why I am somewhat skeptical over people getting excited about having high draft picks.

Originally posted by Stocka
Likewise, I would argue that most supporters have a tendency to over-rate their club's own players, especially in comparison to the way other clubs (or supporters of other clubs) view them in return.

Fair point. I'm a massive Bradshaw fan, without really knowing why. I liken him a bit to Andrew Symonds in the Australian one day team - bucket loads of potential, but potential is a very dangerous word. By the way I'm also a massive Symo fan Very entertaining on his day.

What you have to remember about Bradshaw is that sure, he isn't first picked for any one position at Brisbane, but that's a relative thing. Brisbane has Mal Michael, Justin Leppitsch, Jonathan Brown and Alastair Lynch. Brisbane are incredibly lucky (or incredibly smart, whichever way you look at it) to have those 4, plus one of Crackers, Beau or Charmo down the spine. In my opinion it's no disgrace on Bradshaw's part that he hasn't got a spot in the team ahead of any of these 4, because I rate those 4 as better players than him. Having said that though I think a couple more years experience down back and Bradshaw may become a centre half back of comparable quality to Leppitsch. A bit more upper body strength will not go astray.

My point is that the majority of AFL clubs would gladly name Bradshaw at full forward, maybe even centre half forward, and they wouldn't mind him as a backup key defender either. Sure, I am subjective, but I think most of my points are really just stating the bleeding obvious. I would love to hear some opinions of Bradshaw from non Lions.

 

[OldLion]

Originally posted by rchowell
I'm a massive Bradshaw fan, without really knowing why...

I saw his game v Roos at Docklands when he kicked 5 goals and was the match winner against a very good team and created a lot of excitement and expectation. His reinvention this year has been right on the money and he's still young. ( I also liked his stance in 2000 to be with his family - a real trend setter there). Bit like Notting - saw him kick 5 at the G and drooled at the prospects. Once you set the potential, you're hooked. That's a great aspect about following a team.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Originally posted by OldLion
I saw his game v Roos at Docklands when he kicked 5 goals and was the match winner against a very good team and created a lot of excitement and expectation. His reinvention this year has been right on the money and he's still young. ( I also liked his stance in 2000 to be with his family - a real trend setter there). Bit like Notting - saw him kick 5 at the G and drooled at the prospects. Once you set the potential, you're hooked. That's a great aspect about following a team.

If this was the game in 2001, then it was actually SIX goals and his last goal was the match winner, 55 metres out up against the fence (no exaggeration). One of the better kicks you will ever see. Ahhh the memories - coming back from 26 pts behind twice (after North threw away a 69 point lead the week before!), just a super game all round. Luke Power's goal in the first quarter was awesome as well. If you can't remember, think Hadley's GF goal, only further towards the boundary line and running faster away from goal. A cross between that and Aker's first goal in the 2001 GF.

Notting kicked 6 as well, but I never saw that game, only knew he was playing centre half forward! Geez! Can you remember how the side possibly survived without JB!?

*Dares somebody to say Dion Scott *

 

[Denno]

Originally posted by rchowell
If this was the game in 2001, then it was actually SIX goals and his last goal was the match winner, 55 metres out up against the fence (no exaggeration). One of the better kicks you will ever see. Ahhh the memories - coming back from 26 pts behind twice (after North threw away a 69 point lead the week before!), just a super game all round.

Correct. Bradshaw's clutch goal was awesome.

Luke Power's goal in the first quarter was awesome as well. If you can't remember, think Hadley's GF goal, only further towards the boundary line and running faster away from goal. A cross between that and Aker's first goal in the 2001 GF.

Geez, that's a bit of a stretch! He was closer to goal than Hadley's, probably about the same as Aka's. Not travelling as quick though.

Notting kicked 6 as well, but I never saw that game, only knew he was playing centre half forward! Geez! Can you remember how the side possibly survived without JB!?

That was around Round 21, '99. Awesome game by Notting. Sprayed another out on the full, and actually kicked 7, except it got brought back for a Lynch free. I thought we'd seen our future CHF. Then I saw his game against the Roos in the finals and realised it was all a mirage!