Politics Upcoming election, what do?

[Loonerty]

Can't help but feel Labor might have gotten just a bit more support if they had a more likable leader.

Tanya Plibersek the top contender.

 

[Phone]

So is it safe to say the Libs got screwed this election..?

well they're probably gonna still govern so it could be worse. but look, when they knifed abbott and turnbull was super hot and changed the senate voting stuff the result wasn't supposed to be "barely hang onto power and get a possibly worse senate". they can still hang on and bounce back and be better than ever, but man, it seems a depressing result for them. and from a progressive point of view, any election that results in a Pauline Hanson bloc in the senate is super depressing

 

[Alfred E Neuman]

Who'd have thought a vote could make a difference

Not in the seat of Melbourne.

In any case, I couldn't bring myself to not vote against parties that are fans of locking up refugees on offshore detention facilities, so the Greens it was. Despite disagreeing vehemently with some of their economic policies, I at least know that their moral compass isn't completely ****ed.

 

[efcboy]

Winning an election is better than losing an election. This is fact.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Winning an election is better than losing an election. This is fact.

Laurie?

 

[The Speaker]

One Nation will win a seat in Queensland, and could win on preferences in NSW and WA. The fact that they could do this on a shoestring budget is the biggest warning yet that conservative minded people do not feel represented in either of the major parties.

 

[BrunoV]

I'm not concerned that a few maniacs will be in the Senate, it will always have some crazys because of the nature of Senate voting.

What will be really interesting is the analysis of the result. Will we get the superficial, self-serving, contrived s**t that has been dished up in relation to Brexit, Sanders and Trump? Or will we get in depth and honest analysis?

This is not about electorates being "fed" up with the establishment. If the people have voted for "uncertainty" I don't see how it can be interpreted as anything other than a mass rejection of the policies the underwrite "certainty".

 

[ant555]

Can't help but feel Labor might have gotten just a bit more support if they had a more likable leader.

Tanya Plibersek the top contender.

Labour would have won with Anthony Albanese who was the Labour membership pick for leader after the last election but the caucus votes where worth double so Shorten got the vote.

The result clearly show that people are sick of the rubbish the main parties are throwing up. There was always going to be a swing back to Labour but i am not sure about those calling Shorten a Hero. A mop in a bucket would have won the seats back.
What both parties need to look at is why the vote for Xeniphon and Hansen and Katter and Palmer united in the last election along with Lambie in this election has come about.
Personally i hope Team Xeniphon just gets bigger. Do not like all his policy ideas but he is as close to common sense as anyone in Canberra. In the end my lower house vote did not matter as i live in a safe Labour seat but i voted for none of the main parties in the senate.

As for Bolt. He lives in la la land, twists the facts more than anyone in parliament does and has no idea what so ever about the issues those under 40 believe in. He is a proven bitter Turnbull hater and former Labour voter who changed sides through his friendship with Abbott. His articles are not worth wiping your ass with. Bitter racist red neck stuck in the 60's some time.

 

[BrunoV]

Oh yeah, can we remove Queensland from the continent?

 

[eth-dog]

With the 13 too close to call, the polling data suggests 73-72 Labor. Greens will go to Labor. Makes it 74-72 and Bill only needs to convince Xeno and McGowan to go with them and they form a minority government.

 

[Doss]

Andrew Bolt's article this morning was one of the best political meltdowns I've seen.

Enjoy living in irrelevance you bitter old racist turd.

Also, Pauline Hanson continues to be an embarrassment- what is wrong with you, Queensland?

 

[Lore]

With the 13 too close to call, the polling data suggests 73-72 Labor. Greens will go to Labor. Makes it 74-72 and Bill only needs to convince Xeno and McGowan to go with them and they form a minority government.

Except that the current government gets the first chance to form the next government.


Do we really want a labor minority? Would it even be workable for labor, or just backfire as a repeat of Gillard's "deal with the greens"? I have to wonder what would happen to the discourse if there was a coalition minority... Anything about internal disfunction or doing deals with crossbenchers goes out the window, and we'd be left with something hopefully a little closer to the truth (I suspect something close to what BrunoV said).

My seat has held Liberal by less than 0.5% and pre-poll or postal votes such as mine could make it even closer, with something like 30% of votes in my electorate yet to be counted. It's not one of the seats in doubt, unfortunately, but I really hope he falls. He's a terrible local candidate, regardless of his party affiliation.

 

[Lore]

Also, I believe we can now call members of the big two parties 'antidisestablishmentarians' given the rise of anti-minor party discourses within their campaigns.

And yes, I only posted this so I could use that word in context. #nerd

 

[eth-dog]

Except that the current government gets the first chance to form the next government.


Do we really want a labor minority? Would it even be workable for labor, or just backfire as a repeat of Gillard's "deal with the greens"? I have to wonder what would happen to the discourse if there was a coalition minority... Anything about internal disfunction or doing deals with crossbenchers goes out the window, and we'd be left with something hopefully a little closer to the truth (I suspect something close to what BrunoV said).

My seat has held Liberal by less than 0.5% and pre-poll or postal votes such as mine could make it even closer, with something like 30% of votes in my electorate yet to be counted. It's not one of the seats in doubt, unfortunately, but I really hope he falls. He's a terrible local candidate, regardless of his party affiliation.

Nominally that's the way it is, but they'll need 4 of the 5 independants to do so. Greens absolutely would never side with the Coalition and I doubt Cathy McGowan would be too keen on joining the LNP given their personal history. Leaves them needing Katter (who probably goes to them) and Xenophon, and who knows who he'd side with?

Hopefully this makes the ALP wake up and realise that they're unlikely to win a majority government without a Greens coalition. They need to protect their left flank, and moving to the left on Asylum Seekers (which they're already criticised heavily on) and environmental issues would actually help them. If only The Greens took Higgins (seriously, how was Katter nominated as the TPP candidate?)

 

[Doss]

I love that Cathy McGowan is currently predicted by the ABC to not only retain the seat of Indi but to increase her margin with a current swing of 4.1%. *gleeful laughter*

15.9% of the vote counted so far... but still. HA.

Sophie Mirabella not being in parliament is a win for everyone.

Horrible person and worse politician.

 

[eth-dog]

Sophie Mirabella not being in parliament is a win for everyone.

Horrible person and worse politician.

The way the coalition has treated her, if they win the predicted 72 seats, there is no way they form a minority government.

 

[Alfred E Neuman]

The way the coalition has treated her, if they win the predicted 72 seats, there is no way they form a minority government.

You're referring to McGowan?

 

[Lore]

Nominally that's the way it is, but they'll need 4 of the 5 independants to do so. Greens absolutely would never side with the Coalition and I doubt Cathy McGowan would be too keen on joining the LNP given their personal history. Leaves them needing Katter (who probably goes to them) and Xenophon, and who knows who he'd side with?

Hopefully this makes the ALP wake up and realise that they're unlikely to win a majority government without a Greens coalition. They need to protect their left flank, and moving to the left on Asylum Seekers (which they're already criticised heavily on) and environmental issues would actually help them. If only The Greens took Higgins (seriously, how was Katter nominated as the TPP candidate?)

I return to a question I posed in an earlier post; who becomes speaker of the house? Presumably an opposition MP would have to, regardless of who forms government. Either that or the speaker is the deciding vote.

The Libs have the advantage of putting conservative nationals candidates in conservative country seats and small-L liberal candidates in affluent inner city/suburban seats.

I'd rather labor didn't deal with the greens in the lower house, but I'm not sure they'll have a lot of choice. As far as a long term coalition, I don't know what the answer is but there's plenty of room to move into territories occupied by minor parties.

Personally I'd prefer we didn't even have a 2PP system. I like the European Parliaments with their coalitions of 3 or 4 parties and debating on the floor of the house rather than behind closed doors. It's what the Westminster system was designed for and IMHO it's been bastardised here. I also like the local candidate system in the Netherlands... Certainly it would be more representative of more people rather than having half the electorates not looked after because they're either "safe" or "ungettable" for the government of the day.

 

[Howard Moon]

but the real question is, who had the better graphic?

nines crusher or sevens tower of power?

 

[eth-dog]

You're referring to McGowan?

Yep. If they win 72 seats, they need 4 cross-benchers. Katter would go with them but there's no way McGowan or Bandt does.

 

[Lore]

Sophie Mirabella not being in parliament is a win for everyone.

Horrible person and worse politician.

 

[Alfred E Neuman]

gold

 

[eth-dog]

I doubt she's that arrogant to assume she gets pre-selection again (unfortunately).

What we could see is Jason Ball challenge for Higgins, though. I think there was another election more people would become more disenfranchised with Kelly and more people may buy into the modern message of Jason.

 

[Howard Moon]

See there was a sportsbet market on what colour Tie Laurie Oakes would wear?

He wore six different ties to troll the bookie.

Laurie "The People's Champ" Oakes had expertly trolled the bookies, allowing all 57 punters to collect $3,010

 

[BrunoV]

Nominally that's the way it is, but they'll need 4 of the 5 independants to do so. Greens absolutely would never side with the Coalition and I doubt Cathy McGowan would be too keen on joining the LNP given their personal history. Leaves them needing Katter (who probably goes to them) and Xenophon, and who knows who he'd side with?

Hopefully this makes the ALP wake up and realise that they're unlikely to win a majority government without a Greens coalition. They need to protect their left flank, and moving to the left on Asylum Seekers (which they're already criticised heavily on) and environmental issues would actually help them. If only The Greens took Higgins (seriously, how was Katter nominated as the TPP candidate?)

Don't apply suburban Melbourne ideals to Katter.

His social politics is awful but his economics for rural voters/farmers is on point.